Ok, so I am in the Navy out to sea with pretty crummy internet, so I am not going to be able to look up all the facts that I want to, but rather reading ESPN today on the top projected point guards in the league (Damian Lillard was at 10) got me thinking about the WARP idea and MVP status of players, and maybe a new way of looking at it. Now hopefully someone with faster internet and a mind for stats will read my article and their brain will start seeing what I am seeing and do the statistical side of this. If not, when I get back in to port I will see what I can do. Now onto my thoughts.
WARP is wins above replacement player. I do not know how they get this, I am guessing that they use something like PER where the league average is only 15 every year. However for MVP status and how an individual actually affects their team, this stat could go into a little further with Wins Above Current Replacement, or WACR.
To paint a better picture of what is going on with my thoughts
(Now if Damian got hurt, CJ would probably fill in starter role at least to see if he could do it, but we would see an extreme dosage of Watson, probably 20-30 minutes a game)
Now I think a better, more accurate way to see how important an individual player is to their team, is to utilize WACR. So basically if Aldridge went down our new second year, Thomas Robinson would fill in. But I believe Robinson is below the AVG WARP, so losing Aldridge would greatly affect this team rather then, lets say Dwight Howard going down in Houston, and Omar Asik fills his role for the rest of the season. This could be used to see who is more valuable to their specific team. If a start player goes down, who is their back up? Lets not use WARP but WACR, to see how each individual is affected.
Please give me thoughts and feedbacks! Should I sell this to ESPN? Are one of you guys going to say now and steal this and sell it to ESPN? Or has this already been thought of. Thanks and I hope I get everyone's brains working a little bit harder on advanced stats!!!