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Richard Howell Comparable Analysis

Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches No Step Vert Reach in Inches Max Vert Reach in inches No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint
Richard Howell 78.25 79.5 250 8.8% 8.75 9.5 82.25 105.5

Name Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat < than Standard (as a % of BF) Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Reach > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected
Richard Howell 24 -2.06% -0.74 1.04
Richard Howell is 6-7 1/2" and 250 lbs. His weight is 24 lbs. heavier than average, but he has 2.06% less body fat than average, so he is well conditioned, and his extra weight is muscle. His wingspan is 3/4" less than average, but his reach is 1" longer than average, so he would be described as of average length.

Below are the top 20 Comp seasons to Richard Howell at age 22 and 21. The 4th column is only statistical similarity, and does not include any combine measurements.
Richard Howell Senior season Age 22
Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity
Udonis Haslem 21 Southeastern 92.9%
Chuck Hayes 21 Southeastern 93.4%
Udonis Haslem 22 French 93.2%
Jon Brockman 21 Pacific 12 94.9%
Mark Madsen 24 Pacific 12 96.0%
Trevor Booker 22 Atlantic Coast 92.2%
Trevor Booker 21 Atlantic Coast 92.7%
Al Horford 20 Southeastern 95.2%
David Lee 21 Southeastern 94.6%
Trevor Booker 20 Atlantic Coast 93.0%
Chuck Hayes 20 Southeastern 92.9%
Udonis Haslem 22 Euro Cup 91.5%
Olumide Oyedeji 22 Greek 95.2%
Wayne Simien 20 Big-12 92.0%
Al Horford 19 Southeastern 95.1%
Trevor Booker 19 Atlantic Coast 93.1%
Ryan Gomes 19 Big East 95.4%
Wayne Simien 19 Big-12 93.1%
Marlon Maxey 20 Conference USA 94.7%
Jon Brockman 25 French 95.8%
Richard Howell Junior season Age 21
Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity
Chuck Hayes 21 Southeastern 93.4%
Trevor Booker 20 Atlantic Coast 93.4%
Jon Brockman 21 Pacific 12 94.1%
Udonis Haslem 21 Southeastern 91.8%
Jon Brockman 19 Pacific 12 95.1%
Trevor Booker 19 Atlantic Coast 93.4%
Luke Harangody 19 Big East 94.5%
Udonis Haslem 22 French 92.7%
Chuck Hayes 20 Southeastern 92.3%
Jon Brockman 25 French 96.7%
Marlon Maxey 20 Conference USA 94.8%
Andre Brown 21 Big East 94.8%
Udonis Haslem 22 Euro Cup 92.2%
David Lee 21 Southeastern 93.9%
Dante Cunningham 20 Big East 94.2%
Jason Caffey 21 Southeastern 94.9%
Andre Brown 20 Big East 94.4%
Wayne Simien 20 Big-12 90.9%
Marlon Maxey 21 Conference USA 92.9%
Sean Lampley 19 Pacific 12 95.5%
NBA All Star or Better Al Horford 5%
Very good NBA starter David Lee 9%
Above average to below average NBA starter or rotation player Udonis Haslem, Dante Cunningham, Jason Caffey, Chuck Hayes, Trevor Booker 56%
Below average, lowish minute NBA player Olumide Oyedeji, Mark Madsen 5%
NBA washout Sean Lampley, Marlon Maxey, Wayne Simien, Luke Harangody 23%
Richard Howell is a very intriguing prospect. He comps to 2 Al Horford seasons, and he also comps to David Lee. He has almost no below average NBA players, so 80% of his comp seasons are average NBA or NBA bust. When you look at his group of average NBA players you have a great mix of highly underrated "GLUE GUYS". Haslem, Hayes, Cunningham, and Caffey were all very solid and underrated players. I have formalized the "bell curve" into a single value, and Howell rates pretty low in using the bell curve value. So far the player with best rating is Cody Zeller, which means the probability is higher that he will land close to his projection. Howell on the other hand has a greater degree of risk relating to his stat line, because of the odd shape and deviation within the bell curve.

Average Adjusted Stat Line for Target Player
Season Shooting Statistics Totals
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Richard Howell 1 162 330 49.0% 162 326 49.3% 0 4 6.0% 77 111 69.3% 52.4% 49.1%
Richard Howell 2 239 454 52.6% 237 449 52.7% 1 5 14.0% 99 143 69.3% 55.2% 52.6%
Richard Howell 3 255 504 50.4% 250 491 50.9% 4 14 19.4% 104 145 71.5% 53.6% 50.7%
3 Year Average 226 442 50.8% 223 434 51.1% 2 8 14.1% 95 136 70.2% 53.9% 51.0%
Season Accumulation Stats Totals
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
Richard Howell 1 161 254 424 47 32 27 56 0.85 161 401
Richard Howell 2 173 341 536 84 55 39 78 1.09 209 575
Richard Howell 3 187 400 608 95 54 29 70 1.35 195 615
3 Year Average 175 342 535 79 49 32 69 1.13 191 546
Season Shooting Statistics per 36 Minutes
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Richard Howell 1 4.48 9.14 49.0% 4.46 9.03 49.3% 0.01 0.11 6.7% 2.16 3.11 69.2% 52.3% 49.0%
Richard Howell 2 4.67 8.89 52.5% 4.63 8.80 52.7% 0.01 0.09 14.0% 1.94 2.79 69.5% 55.2% 52.6%
Richard Howell 3 4.62 9.17 50.3% 4.55 8.93 50.9% 0.06 0.24 19.7% 1.89 2.65 71.5% 53.6% 50.7%
3 Year Average 4.6 9.1 50.8% 4.6 8.9 51.1% 0.0 0.2 14.4% 2.0 2.8 70.2% 53.8% 51.0%
Season Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
Richard Howell 1 4.46 6.96 11.66 1.30 0.89 0.74 1.53 0.85 4.50 11.10
Richard Howell 2 3.41 6.67 10.50 1.64 1.08 0.76 1.52 1.09 4.11 11.25
Richard Howell 3 3.41 7.28 11.08 1.72 0.98 0.52 1.27 1.36 3.56 11.17
3 Year Average 3.7 7.0 11.0 1.6 1.0 0.7 1.4 1.13 4.0 11.2
Season Usage Stats
ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
Richard Howell 1 13.3% 20.9% 17.6% 5.4% 1.3% 1.5% 12.2% 14.9%
Richard Howell 2 12.2% 22.2% 17.8% 6.5% 1.5% 1.4% 12.6% 14.8%
Richard Howell 3 10.7% 22.2% 17.1% 7.1% 1.5% 1.1% 11.4% 14.4%
3 Year Average 11.9% 21.9% 17.5% 6.4% 1.4% 1.3% 12.0% 14.7%
Season Advanced Measurements
PER ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
Richard Howell 1 14.12 109.2 103.7 1.86 1.59 3.45 0.122
Richard Howell 2 15.10 111.8 100.3 3.25 3.04 6.17 0.152
Richard Howell 3 14.57 110.5 101.7 3.42 2.89 6.24 0.140
3 Year Average 14.65 110.6 101.7 8.5 7.5 15.86 0.140
Richard Howell's projected stat line is frankly outstanding. What he does shows up clearly using WS and Ortg and DRtg, but his game doesn't translate as well using PER. In aggregate Howell projects to be clearly better than league average almost immediately using WS and O&DRtg, and essentially league average using PER. For his first 3 years Howell is clearly better than league average. At the same time as I said above, his risk profile indicates that the deviation from this projected stat line will be greater than typical. Considering how nice that stat line is, and that he really only has two very good and better players, my opinion is that Howell will be a very solid player along the lines of Udonis Haslem, Chuck Hayes, Dante Cunningham. He will underperform this stat line, but he will be a solid and very underrated player for a long time. Howell is #64 in the Draft Express top 100, and #76 in the NBADraft.net top 100. This is baffling to me, since NBADraft.net has Kenny Kadji at #49, and there is absolutely no comparison, Howell is better by an order of magnitude. Howell is certainly a late first round talent at worst.
Offensively Howell projects to be very effective, with an Ortg of 110.6. This is most easily described by a very solid TS% of almost 54%, with a usage rate of less than 15%. This also explains why his WS and O&DRtg is much better than his PER, as PER doesn't penalize increasing usage even if TS% is poor. His offensive rebound rate is tied for the best of all the players I have analyzed so far (tied with Steven Adams). Howell is not a passer, his Assist rate is the second lowest so far, better only than Adams. Howell is a good FT shooter, but he doesn't get to the line all that often.
Defensively grades out as a very good, but not great defender. His defensive rebound rate is the best of any player so far, so coupled with his ORb rate makes Howell far and away the best rebounder of the top 50 players in the draft. Howell doesn't get steals, very below average, and is a pretty solid shot blocker, consider he is 6-7 1/2. he is a better shot blocker than Zeller, Plumlee, Olynyck, and Anthony Bennett. Howell does commit fair number of personal fouls, 6th worst of all the players projected so far.
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