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Trey Burke Comparable Analysis

Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches No Step Vert Reach in Inches Max Vert Reach in inches No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint
Trey Burke 71.75 73.25 187 6.9% 8.25 8.75 77.5 97.5 127 134 29.5 36.5 3 11.2 3.16

Name Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat < than Standard (as a % of BF) Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Reach > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected
Trey Burke 7 -1.82% -1.88 -4.12 4.36 -0.02 0.47 -1
Trey Burke is 6-1 1/4", 187 lbs. His weight relative to height is 7 lbs heavier, with his body fat 1.82% lower than average, all of which is good. Trey Burke is not "Long", as his wingspan is 1.88" less than average, and his reach is 4.12" less than average. Overall athletically he would be described as above average, with a vertical 4.36" greater than average, which is excellent, and he did the agility drill nearly a 1/2 second faster than average. His speed and bench press numbers were right at the average.

Below are the top 20 Comp seasons to Trey Burke at age 20 and 19. The 4th column is only statistical similarity, and does not include any combine measurements.
Trey Burke Sophomore season age 20
Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity
Mike Bibby 19 Pacific 12 95.4%
D.J. Augustin 20 Big-12 95.7%
Cory Alexander 19 Atlantic Coast 93.9%
Cory Alexander 21 Atlantic Coast 94.5%
Jonny Flynn 19 Big East 94.2%
Sean Singletary 22 Atlantic Coast 93.8%
Sean Singletary 20 Atlantic Coast 92.9%
Litterial Green 19 Southeastern 92.9%
Toney Douglas 22 Atlantic Coast 93.5%
Litterial Green 20 Southeastern 92.6%
Eric Murdock 20 Big East 92.4%
Antonio Burks 23 Conference USA 94.6%
Jonny Flynn 18 Big East 94.2%
A.J. Price 21 Big East 94.1%
Jason Williams 22 Southeastern 92.1%
Terry Dehere 20 Big East 93.2%
Delonte West 20 Atlantic 10 94.4%
Shawn Respert 20 Big Ten 93.1%
Toney Douglas 20 Atlantic Coast 90.7%
Sean Singletary 21 Atlantic Coast 91.5%
Trey Burke Freshman season age 19
Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity
Litterial Green 18 Southeastern 94.9%
Cory Alexander 19 Atlantic Coast 94.6%
Jonny Flynn 18 Big East 96.6%
Toney Douglas 20 Atlantic Coast 94.8%
Cory Alexander 18 Atlantic Coast 94.7%
Litterial Green 19 Southeastern 93.6%
Brandon Knight 19 Southeastern 95.9%
A.J. Guyton 18 Big Ten 96.4%
Earl Watson 19 Pacific 12 93.9%
Sean Singletary 19 Atlantic Coast 93.1%
Toney Douglas 21 Atlantic Coast 94.9%
Toney Douglas 18 Southeastern 93.5%
Kiwane Garris 19 Big Ten 94.2%
Kemba Walker 19 Big East 94.3%
Russell Westbrook 19 Pacific 12 94.4%
Mike Bibby 18 Pacific 12 93.9%
Cory Alexander 21 Atlantic Coast 94.8%
Kiwane Garris 20 Big Ten 95.1%
Aaron Brooks 20 Pacific 12 96.3%
Sean Singletary 20 Atlantic Coast 93.1%
NBA All Star or Better Russell Westbrook 3%
Very good NBA starter Mike Bibby 6%
Above average to below average NBA starter or rotation player D.J. Augustin, Toney Douglas, Jason Williams, Terry Dehere, Eric Murdock, Earl Watson, Kemba Walker, Aaron Brooks 36%
Below average, lowish minute NBA player Cory Alexander, Litterial Green, Johnny Flynn 34%
NBA washout Sean Singletary, A.J. Guyton, Kiwane Garris 23%
Trey Burke as 2 really nice top end comps, Russell Westbrook and Mike Bibby, but the odds are very low gets to that level. At the bottom end he has a 25% chance of washing out, but that includes 5 seasons from Sean Singletary, and is only 3 players in total. This part of the process is the most simplistic, it is a simple GO/NO GO choice, so that in some circumstances it can create an impression taht is a little distorted. I believe his washout probability is no higher than 10%, not the 23%, because of the fact that Sean Singletary appears so often.. So the question is, will he end up a below average NBA player, or average to above average? His below average comps are again dominated by one in particular, Cory Alexander, but Alexander, Green, and Flynn make up 90% of his below average comp seasons. Contrast that with the sheer number and variety of his average to above average comps. I think that group of 8 players in the middle clearly expresses where we should expect Trey Burke to end up. Depending upon situation he may start or he may be a 3rd guard, but he will play significant minutes, and be an effective, solid player for about a decade. He will not be a star, or even a very good NBA PG.

Average Adjusted Stat Line for Target Player
Season Shooting Statistics Totals
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Trey Burke 1 226 545 41.4% 172 395 43.6% 53 150 35.5% 107 135 79.7% 50.3% 46.2%
Trey Burke 2 302 725 41.7% 218 481 45.4% 84 243 34.5% 127 166 76.6% 50.7% 47.4%
Trey Burke 3 316 740 42.8% 240 526 45.8% 76 214 35.5% 146 184 79.5% 51.8% 47.9%
3 Year Average 287 683 42.0% 214 475 45.1% 73 208 35.1% 129 164 78.5% 51.0% 47.3%
Season Accumulation Stats Totals
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
Trey Burke 1 28 103 129 230 52 5 105 2.22 108 611
Trey Burke 2 47 155 202 350 84 12 153 2.30 155 815
Trey Burke 3 38 155 188 393 73 12 142 2.81 138 855
3 Year Average 39 141 178 334 72 10 136 2.46 136 776
Season Shooting Statistics per 36 Minutes
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Trey Burke 1 5.79 14.00 41.4% 4.43 10.14 43.6% 1.37 3.85 35.5% 2.76 3.46 79.7% 50.3% 46.3%
Trey Burke 2 5.46 13.10 41.6% 3.94 8.70 45.3% 1.51 4.39 34.4% 2.29 2.99 76.7% 50.7% 47.4%
Trey Burke 3 5.91 13.82 42.8% 4.49 9.82 45.7% 1.42 4.00 35.6% 2.73 3.44 79.4% 51.8% 47.9%
3 Year Average 5.7 13.6 42.0% 4.3 9.5 45.0% 1.4 4.1 35.1% 2.6 3.3 78.5% 51.0% 47.3%
Season Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
Trey Burke 1 0.72 2.63 3.30 5.91 1.32 0.12 2.69 2.22 2.76 15.70
Trey Burke 2 0.85 2.80 3.64 6.35 1.52 0.21 2.76 2.30 2.82 14.72
Trey Burke 3 0.71 2.89 3.51 7.35 1.35 0.23 2.65 2.81 2.58 15.97
3 Year Average 0.8 2.8 3.5 6.6 1.4 0.2 2.7 2.46 2.7 15.4
Season Usage Stats
ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
Trey Burke 1 2.3% 7.8% 5.0% 25.4% 1.9% 0.3% 14.7% 22.4%
Trey Burke 2 2.6% 8.7% 5.5% 29.2% 2.0% 0.5% 14.6% 21.9%
Trey Burke 3 2.1% 9.0% 5.4% 32.1% 1.9% 0.5% 14.6% 22.4%
3 Year Average 2.3% 8.6% 5.3% 29.2% 1.9% 0.4% 14.6% 22.2%
Season Advanced Measurements
PER ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
Trey Burke 1 13.51 101.1 110.5 0.55 0.71 1.25 0.046
Trey Burke 2 14.76 103.4 112.0 1.73 1.21 3.00 0.062
Trey Burke 3 15.88 104.2 109.2 2.60 1.32 3.97 0.082
3 Year Average 14.84 103.1 110.6 4.9 3.2 8.22 0.065
For his first 2 years Trey Burke will be a below average player, but he will be a player who steadily improves, and by his third year he will be just a hair below league average. Trey Burke will be the kind of player who looks better using the metric PER, but he will not look as good using WS/48 and ORtg/DRtg.
Offensively Trey Burke looks to be below average, with an Ortg of 103 for his first 3 years. Of all the players in this draft class, Trey Burke grades out as the best assist guy, with a 3 year average of 29.2%, and a 32.1% rate in his 3rd year, which is a very good but not great assist rate. As with any high assist player Burke will get a fair number of turnovers, but only Carter-Willaims projects a better A/TO ratio. The area of Burke's offensive game that makes his PER look good, and WS/48 less so is in his shooting and usage rates. Overall Burke is a below average shooter, but he also has a very high usage rate. PER does not penalize a poor shooter who's usage rate increases like WS/48. It is surprising that Burke is a poor shooter because he has very short arms, so perhaps this is an area he can make real improvement if he gets into the right player development program.
Defensively Burke looks to be a poor overall defender with a DRtg of 110.6. Burke is a poor rebounder, even by PG standards, but he does get a higher than average number of defensive rebounds to offensive rebounds. He does get a good amount of steals, of the top 25 players, only Carter-Williams, Franklin, Oladipo, and Larkin project to get more.



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