FanPost

2012 Draft Comparable Analysis

Some people have expressed a desire to see the actual results of the comparable analysis, to assess how accurate and valuable it actually is. So here is the 2012 draft class, with the exception of the players who played very low minutes. I thought it was pretty good, when you put it into the context of 60 players, and 57 distinct statistical categories. There is no one else who is willing to go to that depth, and publish their actual projections to that level of detail, and have this relative degree of accuracy, but you can make your own assessment.

Every two columns compares the players actual stats to his projected for each stat category.

Draft Slot Player Actual WS/48 Projected WS/48 Actual FG% Proj FG% Actual 3P% Proj 3Pt% Actual FT% Proj FT% Actual PTS / 36 min Proj Points / 36 min Actual Rbs / 36 min Proj RBS / 36 min Actual Assists / 36 min Proj Assists / 36 min
1 Anthony Davis 0.159 0.135 51.6% 50.2% 0.0% 33.3% 75.1% 69.1% 16.85 15.2 10.23 10.1 1.2 1.6
2 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 0.051 0.078 45.8% 46.3% 22.2% 33.0% 74.9% 75.6% 12.48 12.5 8.04 6.7 2.1 2.0
3 Bradley Beal 0.082 0.073 41.0% 43.6% 38.6% 36.3% 78.6% 78.4% 16.06 13.9 4.39 5.1 2.8 3.1
4 Dion Waiters 0.026 0.040 41.2% 41.9% 31.0% 36.1% 74.6% 77.3% 18.38 14.4 3 3.8 3.8 3.8
5 Thomas Robinson -0.002 0.074 43.0% 46.0% 0.0% 24.0% 52.3% 60.6% 11.45 13.9 10.74 10.2 1.6 1.6
6 Damian Lillard 0.088 0.070 42.9% 42.7% 36.8% 39.8% 84.4% 84.2% 17.72 16.8 2.89 3.9 6 5.8
7 Harrison Barnes 0.065 0.052 43.9% 40.3% 35.9% 34.1% 75.8% 72.2% 13.04 15.7 5.81 5.4 1.7 2.0
8 Terrence Ross 0.034 0.060 40.7% 42.9% 33.2% 34.7% 71.4% 78.9% 13.57 15.1 4.24 4.6 1.5 2.3
9 Andre Drummond 0.172 0.064 60.8% 47.4% 50.0% 0.0% 37.1% 61.4% 13.73 13.5 13.21 9.3 0.9 1.1
10 Austin Rivers -0.038 0.047 37.2% 42.2% 32.6% 36.8% 54.6% 73.6% 9.6 13.9 2.79 3.9 3.2 3.1
11 Meyers Leonard 0.097 0.089 54.5% 49.6% 42.9% 19.2% 80.9% 70.5% 11.33 13.1 7.62 9.0 1 1.7
13 Kendall Marshall -0.012 0.025 37.1% 41.0% 31.5% 31.8% 57.1% 75.1% 7.38 11.5 2.22 3.5 7.3 7.6
14 John Henson 0.109 0.094 48.2% 46.1% 0.0% 25.4% 53.3% 60.5% 16.45 13.5 12.89 10.2 1.3 1.4
15 Maurice Harkless 0.059 0.043 46.1% 42.2% 27.4% 28.7% 57.0% 69.0% 11.37 13.7 6.1 7.0 0.9 2.0
17 Tyler Zeller 0.048 0.074 43.8% 46.7% 0.0% 20.8% 76.4% 70.5% 10.77 15.2 7.77 9.3 1.7 1.7
18 Terrence Jones 0.128 0.074 45.7% 43.8% 26.3% 31.8% 76.5% 67.7% 13.63 14.6 8.43 8.3 2 2.0
19 Andrew Nicholson 0.065 0.057 52.7% 46.5% 0.0% 21.6% 79.8% 70.6% 16.86 16.3 7.35 8.4 1.3 1.8
20 Evan Fournier 0.115 0.051 49.3% 41.2% 40.7% 35.9% 76.9% 77.8% 16.94 14.0 2.88 4.7 3.7 2.9
21 Jared Sullinger 0.146 0.074 49.3% 46.7% 20.0% 20.8% 74.6% 70.7% 10.9 14.6 10.72 9.5 1.4 1.3
23 John Jenkins 0.091 0.056 44.6% 42.2% 38.4% 37.1% 84.3% 77.8% 14.85 14.3 3.65 4.4 2.2 2.0
27 Arnett Moultrie 0.149 0.051 58.2% 43.6% 0.0% 29.9% 64.3% 70.3% 11.55 12.3 9.68 8.3 0.7 1.7
29 Marquis Teague -0.031 0.042 38.1% 42.6% 17.4% 36.0% 56.3% 79.2% 9.26 14.0 3.97 3.3 5.8 5.8
30 Festus Ezeli 0.066 0.090 43.8% 48.7% 0.0% 8.3% 53.1% 64.9% 6.02 13.2 10.03 9.4 0.7 0.8
31 Jeff Taylor 0.039 0.060 43.1% 44.0% 34.4% 35.6% 72.8% 70.0% 11.22 13.6 3.49 5.0 1.5 2.6
33 Bernard James 0.125 0.092 51.5% 50.6% 0.0% 15.0% 61.0% 59.5% 10.15 12.2 10.15 9.3 0.5 1.2
34 Jae Crowder 0.055 0.090 38.4% 45.0% 32.8% 32.8% 64.4% 70.1% 10.38 13.1 4.98 6.8 2.5 2.0
35 Draymond Green 0.028 0.077 32.7% 43.5% 20.9% 31.4% 81.8% 74.2% 7.77 12.7 8.85 7.1 1.8 3.1
36 Orlando Johnson 0.115 0.073 40.0% 42.8% 38.3% 35.9% 71.9% 75.8% 11.86 13.9 6.53 4.5 2.7 2.8
37 Quincy Acy 0.157 0.085 56.0% 47.9% 50.0% 25.2% 81.6% 67.3% 12.21 12.1 8.24 8.2 1.2 1.4
39 Khris Middleton 0.089 0.069 44.0% 42.9% 31.1% 34.9% 84.4% 77.3% 12.48 13.6 3.89 5.2 2.1 2.9
40 Will Barton -0.028 0.061 38.2% 43.5% 13.8% 34.5% 76.9% 72.4% 11.77 14.7 5.89 5.1 2.3 2.9
43 Mike Scott 0.11 0.078 47.6% 47.3% 0.0% 30.3% 76.8% 71.2% 17.62 14.9 10.72 8.6 1.1 1.9
44 Kim English 0.021 0.075 37.5% 42.9% 28.0% 38.9% 72.4% 76.0% 10.52 13.3 3.26 3.9 2.3 2.8
46 Darius Miller 0.034 0.052 40.7% 43.5% 39.3% 35.7% 100.0% 75.1% 6.2 12.0 4.05 5.3 2.3 2.3
49 Kyle O'Quinn 0.107 0.099 51.3% 47.8% 0.0% 25.9% 66.7% 72.0% 13.19 13.2 11.9 10.4 2.9 1.4
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