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What should we really expect from Allen Crabbe, and will it be a good investment?

What is the most realistic expectation of what our 4 draft picks will produce? Below I have put together a group of 4 players that essentially express the general range we should expect from Allen Crabbe. I have tried to find 4 players that directly surround Allen Crabbe, and I included some selected college stat comparisons, and physical comparisons, and then a projection for Allen Crabbe based upon these 4 comps. My projection is that essentially Allen Crabbe will be around the median of these 4 players.

Allen Crabbe

Physical Attributes

Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches No Step Vert Reach in Inches Max Vert Reach in inches No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint
Allen Crabbe 77.25 78.25 197 4.7% 8.25 8.5 83.25 103.5 134 139.5 30.5 36 10 10.67 3.32
Rodney Carney 76.5 77.75 204 5.3% 82 103.5 135.5 142 32 38.5 10 10.57 3.06
Wayne Ellington 76.25 77.25 202 5.5% 78.5 100 131.5 138 31.5 38 13 11.14 3.2
Vincent Yarbrough 77.5 79 202 84.5 104.5 134.5 138.5 30 34 10 11.7 3.32
Antoine Wright 77.25 78.25 203 80.75 104.5 131 134 26.5 29.5 12 11.45 3.41

Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat < than Standard (as a % of BF) Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Reach > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected
Allen Crabbe -10 -1.32% 1.91 1 0.61 0.01 0.68 1
Rodney Carney -2 -1.42% 1.18 1.65 2.56 0.23 0.64 -1
Wayne Ellington -2 -1.11% -1.8 -1.19 3.32 0.07 0.01 2
Vincent Yarbrough -7 2.38 1.01 -0.34 0.05 -0.2 1
Antoine Wright -4 -0.59 2 -2.49 -0.03 0.09 3

College Stats on a per 40 minute basis

Player School Age Pts FG FGA FG% 2Pt 2PtA 2P% 3Pt 3PtA 3P% FTM FTA FT%
Allen Crabbe California 20 2012-13 20.3 7.2 15.7 46% 5.1 9.5 53% 2.1 6.2 35% 3.8 4.7 81%
Rodney Carney Memphis 20 2004-05 21.5 7.5 18.3 41% 4.8 10.1 47% 2.7 8.3 32% 3.9 5.0 77%
Wayne Ellington North Carolina 20 2007-08 21.3 7.8 16.7 47% 5.2 10.3 51% 2.6 6.4 40% 3.1 3.8 83%
Vincent Yarbrough Tennessee 20 2001-02 20.4 7.1 16.7 42% 4.9 10.6 46% 2.2 6.1 36% 4.1 5.9 69%
Antoine Wright Texas A&M 20 2004-05 21.1 7.4 14.7 50% 4.6 8.6 54% 2.7 6.1 45% 3.7 5.3 69%
Average of comps 21.1 7.4 16.6 45% 4.9 9.9 50% 2.5 6.7 38% 3.7 5.0 74%

Player School Age Off Def TOT Asts Stls Blks TOs PFs
Allen Crabbe California 20 2012-13 1.1 5.6 6.7 2.9 1.2 0.8 2.8 2.3
Rodney Carney Memphis 20 2004-05 2.2 4.5 6.7 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.9 2.8
Wayne Ellington North Carolina 20 2007-08 1.4 4.4 5.7 2.6 1.5 0.2 2.2 2.0
Vincent Yarbrough Tennessee 20 2001-02 2.6 6.0 8.5 3.2 2.1 0.9 3.4 2.2
Antoine Wright Texas A&M 20 2004-05 1.9 5.1 7.0 2.6 1.4 0.8 2.9 3.0
Average of comps 2.0 5.0 7.0 2.5 1.6 0.7 2.6 2.5

Player School Age PER EFF EFF/40 WS/40 Pos /g % Tm Pos Pts / Pos FGA / Pos FTA / Pos TS% eFG% FTA /FGA 3PA /FGA WS/ Poss 40 St-Bl-Rb / PF 40 min
Allen Crabbe California 20 2012-13 14.3 17.9 19.8 8.2 15.8 23.7% 1.29 0.99 0.29 56.9% 52.8% 30.0% 39.0% 0.52 3.77
Rodney Carney Memphis 20 2004-05 11.5 13.5 18.1 6.6 18.0 26.4% 1.19 1.02 0.28 51.9% 48.0% 27.0% 45.0% 0.37 3.25
Wayne Ellington North Carolina 20 2007-08 13.0 15.2 19.6 8.1 16.1 21.1% 1.33 1.04 0.24 57.7% 54.4% 23.0% 38.0% 0.50 3.64
Vincent Yarbrough Tennessee 20 2001-02 14.6 18.0 20.3 9.0 17.6 25.1% 1.16 0.95 0.34 52.5% 49.0% 36.0% 37.0% 0.51 5.27
Antoine Wright Texas A&M 20 2004-05 14.7 17.9 21.1 9.5 15.1 22.7% 1.39 0.97 0.35 61.4% 59.4% 36.0% 41.0% 0.63 3.07
Average of comps 13.4 16.2 19.8 8.3 16.7 23.8% 1.27 1.00 0.30 55.9% 52.7% 30.5% 40.3% 0.50 3.81

I believe these 4 comps are a very good representation of Allen Crabbe physically, and also how Allen Crabbe produced in college. Based upon the bell curve of his comp scores, Allen Crabbe should end up somewhere in the range of these 4 players.

PROJECTED NBA STAT LINE FIRST 3 YEARS

Season Shooting Statistics Totals
FG% 2P% 3P% FT% TS% eFG%
Allen Crabbe 1 44.1% 47.7% 34.0% 74.3% 51.0% 48.5%
Allen Crabbe 2 42.1% 45.4% 34.4% 69.1% 49.3% 47.0%
Allen Crabbe 3 42.2% 49.3% 32.2% 75.9% 51.2% 48.8%
3 Year Average 42.9% 47.5% 33.5% 73.1% 50.5% 48.2%

Season Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes
TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
Allen Crabbe 1 4.01 2.14 0.94 0.53 1.90 1.13 3.14 12.16
Allen Crabbe 2 4.72 1.69 1.02 0.35 1.47 1.15 3.22 11.61
Allen Crabbe 3 3.81 1.53 1.03 0.62 1.31 1.17 2.97 11.93
3 Year Average 4.2 1.8 1.0 0.5 1.6 1.15 3.1 11.9

Season Advanced Measurements
PER ORtg DRtg WS WS/48
Allen Crabbe 1 9.85 97.6 112.2 0.77 0.026
Allen Crabbe 2 10.17 103.2 110.5 0.97 0.043
Allen Crabbe 3 10.70 104.3 111.7 1.03 0.043
3 Year Average 10.23 101.6 111.5 2.77 0.037

Last years 31st pick Jeff Taylor signed for $2,279,115. The Blazers traded away 2 future second round picks for Allen Crabbe, so I will place the value of each pick at the cost of Jeff Taylor's contract, which was $575,000. So the total cost for Allen Crabbe is $3,429,115. Over 3 years he will produce $4,321,200 in wins, so the net gain was $892,085 over 3 years. Allen Crabbe will add the value of 0.57 wins over cost in total over his 3 year deal.

This was a very poor pick. There were a number of better players we could have selected instead, and we could have got them at the Grant Jerrett pick, so we wouldn't have had to give up 2 assets (future second round picks). Allen Crabbe does not have the upside to justify where he was selected.

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