FanPost

What should we really expect from Jeff Withey, and will it be a good investment?

What is the most realistic expectation of what our 4 draft picks will produce? Below I have put together a group of 4 players that essentially express the general range we should expect from Jeff Withey. I have included some selected college stat comparisons, and physical comparisons, and then a projection for each player based upon these 4 players.

Jeff Withey

Physical Attributes

Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches No Step Vert Reach in Inches Max Vert Reach in inches No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint
Jeff Withey 82.75 84.5 222 8.7% 9 9.75 86 110.5 137 139.5 26.5 29 10 12.49 3.47
Cole Aldrich 81 83.25 236 8.5% 9 9.25 88.75 111.5 134.5 139.5 23 28 10 11.48 3.35
Marcus Camby 81.67 83 220
Taj Gibson 80.5 81.75 214 6.6% 88 109 134.5 139 25.5 30 12 11.56 3.41
Loren Woods 84.75 85.75 246 89.5 113 137.5 141 24.5 28 10 11.83 3.48

Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat < than Standard (as a % of BF) Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Reach > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected
Jeff Withey -19 1.56% -1.42 -0.07 -0.41 0.04 -0.34 2
Cole Aldrich -1 -0.19% 2.63 2.57 -4.77 0.19 0.64 3
Marcus Camby -16
Taj Gibson -18 0.36% 2.66 1.58 -4.21 0.03 0.46 4
Loren Woods -7 1.45 1.17 -1.7 0.12 0.49 3

College Stats on a per 40 minute basis

Player School Age Pts FG FGA FG% 2Pt 2PtA 2P% 3Pt 3PtA 3P% FTM FTA FT%
Jeff Withey Kansas 22 2012-13 17.8 6.5 11.1 58% 6.4 11.1 58% 0.0 0.0 100% 4.8 6.7 71%
Cole Aldrich Kansas 21 2009-10 16.8 6.2 11.0 56% 6.2 11.0 56% 0.0 0.0 0% 4.5 6.6 68%
Marcus Camby Massachusetts 20 1994-95 24.5 9.8 17.8 55% 9.7 17.7 55% 0.1 0.1 100% 4.9 7.6 64%
Taj Gibson USC 23 2008-09 17.0 6.4 10.7 60% 6.4 10.7 60% 0.0 0.0 0% 4.1 6.2 66%
Loren Woods Arizona 22 2000-01 17.5 6.1 12.0 50% 6.0 11.9 51% 0.1 0.1 0% 5.3 6.4 83%
Average of comps 18.9 7.1 12.9 55% 7.1 12.8 55% 0.0 0.1 25% 4.7 6.7 70%

Player School Age Off Def TOT Asts Stls Blks TOs PFs
Jeff Withey Kansas 22 2012-13 2.8 8.3 11.0 1.2 1.0 5.1 2.6 2.7
Cole Aldrich Kansas 21 2009-10 4.6 10.1 14.7 1.3 1.1 5.2 2.3 3.8
Marcus Camby Massachusetts 20 1994-95 3.4 7.5 11.0 2.2 1.4 6.1 3.2 4.4
Taj Gibson USC 23 2008-09 4.2 6.5 10.7 1.5 1.2 3.4 2.4 3.5
Loren Woods Arizona 22 2000-01 2.7 5.9 8.6 2.8 0.9 3.8 2.7 2.9
Average of comps 3.7 7.5 11.2 1.9 1.1 4.6 2.7 3.6

Player School Age PER EFF EFF/40 WS/40 Pos /g % Tm Pos Pts / Pos FGA / Pos FTA / Pos PTs /g FGA /g Pts /Play TS% WS/ Poss 40 St-Bl-Rb / PF 40 min
Jeff Withey Kansas 22 2012-13 15.8 20.8 27.0 14.6 14.4 20.9% 1.24 0.77 0.47 13.7 5.0 1.09 62.2% 1.01 6.36
Cole Aldrich Kansas 21 2009-10 14.5 20.0 29.8 17.4 14.3 20.4% 1.18 0.77 0.46 11.3 4.1 1.06 59.8% 1.22 5.50
Marcus Camby Massachusetts 20 1994-95 14.1 17.7 31.2 14.1 21.7 32.5% 1.13 0.82 0.35 13.9 5.5 1.02 57.4% 0.65 4.23
Taj Gibson USC 23 2008-09 16.3 21.0 24.9 13.3 13.9 21.2% 1.22 0.77 0.45 14.3 5.4 1.09 62.3% 0.96 4.37
Loren Woods Arizona 22 2000-01 13.9 18.1 23.9 10.9 14.7 22.0% 1.19 0.82 0.44 13.2 4.6 1.01 58.1% 0.74 4.56
Average of comps 14.7 19.2 27.5 13.9 16.1 24.0% 1.18 0.80 0.43 13.2 4.9 1.05 59.4% 0.89 4.67

As you can see these 4 players, clearly describe a very tight range of outputs for Jeff Withey. Withey has better comps, and worse comps than these 4, but these 4 comps best describe the median of the 40 comps for Jeff Withey. So we should expect the performance from Jeff Withey to be near the average of these 4 players.

Season Shooting Statistics Totals
FG% 2P% 3P% FT% TS% eFG%
Jeff Withey 1 49.1% 48.8% 0.0% 68.3% 54.1% 49.1%
Jeff Withey 2 44.9% 45.3% 33.3% 65.5% 48.9% 45.0%
Jeff Withey 3 51.1% 51.1% 0.0% 59.3% 53.0% 51.1%
3 Year Average 48.5% 48.6% 10.4% 64.0% 52.1% 48.6%

Season Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
Jeff Withey 1 2.76 5.74 8.54 1.49 1.02 2.47 2.14 3.71 13.23
Jeff Withey 2 3.11 5.58 8.88 1.42 1.02 2.93 1.82 3.61 10.79
Jeff Withey 3 3.24 5.89 9.10 1.30 0.88 2.55 1.96 3.93 10.85
3 Year Average 3.1 5.7 8.9 1.4 1.0 2.7 2.0 3.8 11.5

Season Usage Stats
ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV%
Jeff Withey 1 9.0% 18.1% 13.6% 7.0% 1.5% 5.1% 14.1%
Jeff Withey 2 9.7% 19.2% 14.5% 6.8% 1.5% 6.0% 12.7%
Jeff Withey 3 10.3% 19.1% 14.6% 6.1% 1.3% 5.3% 14.4%
3 Year Average 9.7% 18.8% 14.3% 6.5% 1.4% 5.4% 13.7%

Season Advanced Measurements
PER ORtg DRtg WS WS/48
Jeff Withey 1 14.98 104.6 99.4 2.70 0.093
Jeff Withey 2 15.07 102.8 98.9 2.50
0.086
Jeff Withey 3 16.55 110.7 97.3

3.51
0.121
3 Year Average 15.56 105.6 98.5
8.71
0.100

Jeff Withey projects to produce $13.5 million in wins, and projects to get paid $2,177,719. Portland will net $11,400,000. This was a very good pick.

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