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What should we really expect from our C.J. McCollum, and will it be a good investment?

What is the most realistic expectation of what our 4 draft picks will produce? Below I have put together a group of 4 players that essentially express the general range we should expect from each draft pick. I have included some selected college stat comparisons, and physical comparisons, and then a projection for each player based upon these 4 players.

CJ McCollum

Physical Attributes

Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches No Step Vert Reach in Inches Max Vert Reach in inches No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint
C.J. McCollum 74.25 75.25 197 8.6% 8 9.5 78.25 96.5 128.5 135 32 38.5 13 11.02 3.32
Rodney Stuckey 75.75 76.5 207 6.1% 79.25 100.5 131 135.5 30.5 35 14 11.34 3.11
Antonio Daniels 74 75.15 197 80
Randy Foye 74.25 75.25 212 10.0% 78.25 97 129 135 32 38 14 10.53 3.23
Anthony Peeler 74.78 76 208

Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat < than Standard (as a % of BF) Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Reach > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected
C.J. McCollum 8 1.10% 0.07 -1.75 2.12 -0.07 0.25 0
Rodney Stuckey 5 -1.06% -0.27 0.29 2.05 0.14 -0.27 2
Antonio Daniels 9 1.92
Randy Foye 23 1.38% 0.07 -1.25 2.12 0.02 0.74 -2
Anthony Peeler 17

College stats on a per 40 minute basis

Player School Age Pts FG FGA FG% 2Pt 2PtA 2P% 3Pt 3PtA 3P% FTM FTA FT%
C.J. McCollum Lehigh 21 2012-13 30.9 10.3 20.9 49% 6.8 14.0 48% 3.6 6.9 52% 6.7 7.9 85%
Rodney Stuckey Eastern Washington 19 2005-06 29.3 10.1 20.6 49% 7.9 14.6 54% 2.2 6.0 37% 6.9 9.1 76%
Antonio Daniels Bowling Green 21 1996-97 26.4 9.6 17.6 55% 8.1 14.0 58% 1.6 3.6 43% 5.7 7.3 78%
Randy Foye Villanova 22 2005-06 23.7 7.9 19.2 41% 4.8 10.3 46% 3.1 8.9 35% 4.8 6.0 79%
Anthony Peeler Missouri 22 1991-92 26.4 8.5 18.5 46% 6.4 13.4 47% 2.1 5.2 42% 7.3 9.0 81%
Average of comps 26.5 9.0 19.0 48% 6.8 13.1 51% 2.3 5.9 39% 6.2 7.9 78%

Player School Age Off Def TOT Asts Stls Blks TOs PFs
C.J. McCollum Lehigh 21 2012-13 1.3 5.2 6.5 3.8 1.8 0.4 3.4 2.3
Rodney Stuckey Eastern Washington 19 2005-06 1.3 4.5 5.8 5.0 2.7 0.3 4.3 3.0
Antonio Daniels Bowling Green 21 1996-97 1.0 2.1 3.1 7.4 2.5 0.3 3.6 1.8
Randy Foye Villanova 22 2005-06 1.9 4.8 6.6 3.5 1.6 0.7 2.5 2.5
Anthony Peeler Missouri 22 1991-92 2.0 4.3 6.2 4.4 2.4 0.4 3.9 2.8
Average of comps 1.5 3.9 5.5 5.1 2.3 0.4 3.6 2.5

Player School Age PER EFF EFF/40 WS/40 Pos /g % Tm Pos Pts / Pos FGA / Pos FTA / Pos Ast /Pos TO /Pos
C.J. McCollum Lehigh 21 2012-13 19.2 21.8 28.2 11.9 21.3 32.1% 1.45 0.98 0.37 0.18 0.16
Rodney Stuckey Eastern Washington 19 2005-06 19.0 21.5 26.1 9.5 22.9 32.8% 1.28 0.90 0.40 0.22 0.19
Antonio Daniels Bowling Green 21 1996-97 22.4 24.2 26.7 10.3 19.7 29.5% 1.34 0.89 0.37 0.38 0.18
Randy Foye Villanova 22 2005-06 15.7 18.3 21.1 8.1 19.0 28.6% 1.25 1.01 0.32 0.18 0.13
Anthony Peeler Missouri 22 1991-92 18.7 21.3 24.1 9.1 20.7 31.0% 1.28 0.90 0.44 0.21 0.19
Average of comps 18.9 21.3 24.5 9.2 20.6 30.5% 1.29 0.93 0.38 0.25 0.17

As you can see these 4 players, clearly describe a very tight range of outputs for CJ McCollum. McCollum has better comps, and worse comps than these 4, but these 4 comps best describe the median of the 40 comps for CJ McCollum. So we should expect the performance from C.J. McCollum to be near the average of these 4 players.

Season Shooting Statistics %'s
FG% 2P% 3P% FT% TS% eFG%
1 C.J. McCollum 1 44.2% 45.1% 39.1% 77.5% 51.2% 47.1%
2 C.J. McCollum 2 44.6% 45.6% 37.9% 79.5% 50.9% 47.1%
3 C.J. McCollum 3 42.9% 43.5% 40.0% 81.7% 51.1% 46.7%
3 Year Average 43.8% 44.6% 39.1% 79.7% 51.1% 46.9%

Season Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes
TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
C.J. McCollum 1 3.76 4.10 1.06 0.27 2.79 1.47 3.00 15.51
C.J. McCollum 2 4.14 4.97 1.21 0.19 2.29 2.17 3.10 15.94
C.J. McCollum 3 3.63 4.09 1.20 0.26 2.10 1.95 2.93 17.59
3 Year Average 3.8 4.4 1.2 0.2 2.4 1.87 3.0 16.4

Season Usage Stats
TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
C.J. McCollum 1 6.2% 18.8% 1.6% 0.6% 17.0% 20.5%
C.J. McCollum 2 6.4% 21.2% 1.7% 0.4% 13.6% 21.1%
C.J. McCollum 3 5.8% 18.9% 1.8% 0.6% 11.5% 22.1%
3 Year Average 6.1% 19.5% 1.7% 0.5% 13.8% 21.3%

Season Advanced Measurements
PER ORtg DRtg WS WS/48
C.J. McCollum 1 12.93 101.0 107.7 1.41 0.046
C.J. McCollum 2 14.42 103.8 107.6 2.62 0.074
C.J. McCollum 3 14.88 106.6 109.0 3.14 0.079
3 Year Average 14.13 104.0 108.2 7.17 0.067

For his first 3 years in the league C.J. McCollum will be paid $7,017,240. On average a player win costs a team $1,560,000, meaning he will produce $11,185,000 worth of wins, so the Blazers will come out $4.2 million ahead after 3 seasons. This is a very solid first round pick.

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