FanPost

Grading the PG's Through Comparable Analysis

Player Rankings
My Rank for SG Name Draft Express Top 100 NBA Draft.net top 100
1 Michael Carter-Williams 12 17
2 Pierre Jackson 40 52
3 Phil Pressey 54 70
4 C.J. McCollum 8 5
5 Trey Burke 4 8
6 Nate Wolters 26 42
7 Lorenzo Brown 50 25
8 B.J. Young 59 61
9 Isaiah Canaan 43 31
10 Ray McCallum 34 44
11 Peyton Siva 60 51
12 Matthew Dellavedova 47 Not Rated
13 Raul Neto 90 Not rated
14 Vander Blue 68 60
15 Myck Kabongo 61 38
16 Shane Larkin 19 22
17 Erick Green 22 30
18 Nemanja Nedovic 52 68
19 Seth Curry 75 75

Physical Attributes
Below is a breakdown of all the centers based upon their physical attributes, their "Length", and their "Athleticism". You will not some players do not have data for some measurements. The final table shows what how well the player measured relative to the average of a player of his height, or other measurements, based upon size specific algorithms.
Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width
Michael Carter-Williams 76.75 77.75 184 4.4% 7.5 8.5
Pierre Jackson 69.5 70.5 176 4.5% 7.5 8.25
Phil Pressey 69.5 71.5 177 4.7% 7.75 9.75
C.J. McCollum 74.25 75.25 197 8.6% 8 9.5
Trey Burke 71.75 73.25 187 6.9% 8.25 8.75
Nate Wolters 75.5 76.75 196 5.5% 8.25 8.75
Lorenzo Brown 76 77.25 189 4.0% 8.25 8.5
B.J. Young 74.25 75.5 179 4.7% 8.5 9.5
Isaiah Canaan 71 72 188 5.9% 8.25 9.5
Ray McCallum 72.25 73.75 191 7.3% 8 8.75
Peyton Siva 71.5 73 181 6.1% 8 9.75
Matthew Dellavedova 75 76 205 6.4% 8.25 8.5
Raul Neto 72.05 73.23 168 4.1%
Vander Blue 75.5 77.25 197 4.6% 8.5 9.5
Myck Kabongo 73.25 74.75 180 6.0% 8.25 9
Shane Larkin 70.25 71.5 171 3.8% 7.5 8.75
Erick Green 73.5 75 178 4.4% 8.5 9
Nemanja Nedovic 74.8 75.98 195 5.3%
Seth Curry 73 75 179 9.6% 8 8.25
Length
Name Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches No Step Vert Reach Max Vert Reach No Step Vert Max Vert
Michael Carter-Williams 79.25 101 132.5 142 31.5 41
Pierre Jackson 70 90 125 132.5 35 42.5
Phil Pressey 74.25 92 125 130.5 33 38.5
C.J. McCollum 78.25 96.5 128.5 135 32 38.5
Trey Burke 77.5 97.5 127 134 29.5 36.5
Nate Wolters 75.75 98
Lorenzo Brown 79 100 128 134 28 34
B.J. Young 80.25 99
Isaiah Canaan 76.5 94.5 127.5 135 33 40.5
Ray McCallum 75.25 96.5 127 136.5 30.5 40
Peyton Siva 75 93 126.5 134.5 33.5 41.5
Matthew Dellavedova 76 97 128 134 28 34
Raul Neto 73.62 92.13 115.13 119.63 23 27.5
Vander Blue 78 100.5 128.5 138 28 37.5
Myck Kabongo 78.25 98 125.5 131.5 27.5 33.5
Shane Larkin 70.75 89.5 124 133.5 34.5 44
Erick Green 77.75 98
Nemanja Nedovic 77.17 91.34 123.74 132.34 32.4 41
Seth Curry 76 97.5

Athleticism
Name No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint
Michael Carter-Williams 31.5 41 8 10.68 3.22
Pierre Jackson 35 42.5 11.36 3.13
Phil Pressey 33 38.5 7 10.86 3.13
C.J. McCollum 32 38.5 13 11.02 3.32
Trey Burke 29.5 36.5 3 11.2 3.16
Nate Wolters 8
Lorenzo Brown 28 34 8 11.78 3.4
B.J. Young
Isaiah Canaan 33 40.5 16 10.98 3.22
Ray McCallum 30.5 40 5 10.82 3.25
Peyton Siva 33.5 41.5 15 10.59 3.14
Matthew Dellavedova 28 34 8 11.78 3.4
Raul Neto 23 27.5 3.28
Vander Blue 28 37.5 4 10.4 3.14
Myck Kabongo 27.5 33.5 2 10.64 3.34
Shane Larkin 34.5 44 12 10.64 3.08
Erick Green 5
Nemanja Nedovic 32.4 41 3.26
Seth Curry

Name Weight > than standard Body Fat % < than Standard Wingspan > than standard Reach > than standard Vertical > than standard Speed > than standard Agility > than standard Greater # bench reps than avg
Michael Carter-Williams -22 -0.5% -1.57 -0.85 3.05 0.08 0.55 -1
Pierre Jackson 3 -2.1% -3.19 -1.58 6.76 -0.03 -0.42
Phil Pressey 1 -1.9% 0.02 -0.88 3.04 0.05 0.3 -3
C.J. McCollum 8 1.1% 0.07 -1.75 2.12 -0.07 0.25 0
Trey Burke 3 0.0% 1.4 1.86 -0.09 0.03 -0.18 -7
Nate Wolters -7 -0.7% -4.03 -2.54
Lorenzo Brown -15 -1.5% -1.3 -1.19 -0.36 -0.09 -0.48 0
B.J. Young -10 -1.4% 1.81 0.42
Isaiah Canaan 11 -1.5% 1.75 0.97 2.13 -0.02 0.27 5
Ray McCallum 6 0.1% -1.37 0.21 1.77 -0.05 0.26 -7
Peyton Siva -2 -0.4% -0.84 -2.31 4.86 -0.03 0.27 2
Matthew Dellavedova 1 0.9% -4.3 -4.19 -0.36 -0.09 -0.48 0
Raul Neto -16 -1.4% -2.46 -3.48 -5.11
Vander Blue -7 -1.6% -2.3 -0.69 0 0.17 0.9 -6
Myck Kabongo -7 -0.3% 0.59 0.4 -2.38 -0.05 0.69 -4
Shane Larkin -5 -2.4% -3.48 -3.38 5.95 0.08 0.48 1
Erick Green -10 -1.7% -0.17 0.08
Nemanja Nedovic 4 -2.0% -1.77 -7.86 2.94
Seth Curry -9 3.4% -1.92 -0.42
Among the notable bits of data
The tallest player without shoes is Michael Carter Williams. The shortest is Pierre Jackson and Phil Pressey.
The player with the largest hands are Vander Blue, and B.J. Young, and Pierre Jackson has the smallest hands.
The player with the longest wingspan and reach is Michael Carter-Williams, Pierre Jackson the shortest.
Best leapers Shane Larkin and Pierre Jackson, the worst is Raul Neto.
The quickest are Shane Larkin, Pierre Jackson, and Phil Pressey, and the slowest is Matthew Dellavedova.
The most agile is Vander Blue, and the least agile is Lorenzo Brown and Matthew Dellavedova.


Projected NBA stats years 1-2-3
Included below is the projected 3 year average statistical line for each of the players. They are broken down into specific categories, 1.) Shooting, 2.) Accumulation per 36 minutes, 3.) % Rate Stats, and 4.) Advanced Measurements.
SHOOTING EFFICIENCY
Name FG% 2P% 3P% FT% TS% eFG%
Michael Carter-Williams 42.6% 44.7% 35.2% 77.8% 50.5% 46.5%
Pierre Jackson 41.2% 43.1% 34.7% 82.4% 50.5% 45.2%
Phil Pressey 40.1% 42.3% 35.3% 78.5% 49.6% 45.5%
C.J. McCollum 42.8% 43.9% 38.4% 80.0% 50.7% 47.0%
Trey Burke 41.8% 44.8% 35.2% 77.5% 50.9% 47.2%
Nate Wolters 43.8% 46.5% 35.0% 77.5% 51.5% 48.0%
Lorenzo Brown 43.8% 45.5% 28.6% 77.1% 49.7% 45.2%
B.J. Young 41.6% 43.9% 32.5% 77.2% 49.2% 45.0%
Isaiah Canaan 42.0% 44.8% 36.7% 80.2% 52.4% 48.2%
Ray McCallum 44.2% 47.6% 33.0% 75.9% 52.4% 48.1%
Peyton Siva 42.0% 45.5% 33.4% 78.6% 51.2% 47.1%
Matthew Dellavedova 41.0% 43.5% 34.9% 76.4% 50.0% 46.4%
Raul Neto 42.3% 45.5% 34.7% 80.8% 51.8% 47.5%
Vander Blue 43.2% 46.0% 36.4% 78.5% 52.4% 48.6%
Myck Kabongo 41.8% 44.5% 33.1% 82.7% 51.5% 45.8%
Shane Larkin 42.5% 46.3% 34.9% 77.8% 52.3% 48.5%
Erick Green 42.5% 45.0% 34.7% 80.0% 51.1% 46.9%
Nemanja Nedovic 39.6% 41.5% 35.9% 76.6% 49.7% 45.8%
Seth Curry 40.2% 42.9% 37.0% 83.9% 52.1% 48.5%

ACCUMULATION STATS PER 36 MINUTES
Name ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
Michael Carter-Williams 0.9 3.1 3.9 6.4 1.8 0.3 2.5 2.9 12.9
Pierre Jackson 0.8 2.7 3.4 7.8 1.6 0.2 3.1 3.1 14.5
Phil Pressey 0.7 2.7 3.4 7.1 1.4 0.1 2.8 2.7 14.1
C.J. McCollum 0.8 3.2 4.0 4.8 1.3 0.4 2.5 3.1 16.2
Trey Burke 0.6 2.6 3.1 6.4 1.3 0.2 2.7 2.7 14.9
Nate Wolters 0.8 3.2 4.0 5.4 1.4 0.4 2.3 3.0 14.1
Lorenzo Brown 1.2 3.1 4.2 6.0 1.9 0.3 2.5 3.1 12.9
B.J. Young 1.1 3.1 4.2 5.9 1.4 0.3 3.1 3.0 17.8
Isaiah Canaan 0.7 2.6 3.3 5.0 1.3 0.2 2.8 3.3 16.9
Ray McCallum 0.9 2.8 3.7 6.2 1.6 0.2 2.5 3.1 14.6
Peyton Siva 0.6 2.9 3.6 6.5 1.6 0.2 2.8 3.1 12.8
Matthew Dellavedova 0.7 2.7 3.3 6.1 1.3 0.2 2.5 3.1 12.2
Raul Neto 0.7 2.8 3.5 6.0 1.4 0.2 2.7 3.0 13.9
Vander Blue 0.9 3.2 4.1 3.0 1.1 0.4 2.1 2.7 14.4
Myck Kabongo 0.6 3.0 3.6 5.9 1.5 0.2 2.8 2.9 14.0
Shane Larkin 0.7 2.6 3.3 6.2 1.5 0.1 2.5 2.7 13.1
Erick Green 0.8 2.8 3.5 4.9 1.3 0.2 2.2 2.8 15.7
Nemanja Nedovic 0.9 3.1 3.9 4.1 1.3 0.3 2.9 3.1 15.6
Seth Curry 0.5 2.8 3.4 3.9 1.1 0.2 2.2 2.6 13.4

% RATE STATS BASED UPON BASKETBALL REFERENCE FORMULAS
Name ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
Michael Carter-Williams 2.9% 9.7% 6.3% 27.2% 2.5% 0.6% 15.6% 18.5%
Pierre Jackson 2.4% 8.6% 5.4% 34.8% 2.3% 0.4% 18.8% 20.3%
Phil Pressey 2.1% 8.7% 5.4% 32.0% 2.1% 0.3% 17.3% 20.4%
C.J. McCollum 2.5% 10.0% 6.2% 20.5% 1.9% 0.7% 14.3% 21.2%
Trey Burke 1.9% 8.0% 4.8% 28.7% 1.8% 0.4% 15.3% 21.8%
Nate Wolters 2.6% 9.7% 6.1% 22.1% 1.8% 0.7% 13.1% 20.5%
Lorenzo Brown 3.4% 9.9% 6.5% 25.1% 2.4% 0.5% 16.4% 18.2%
B.J. Young 3.3% 9.5% 6.5% 25.8% 1.9% 0.6% 16.2% 22.3%
Isaiah Canaan 2.2% 7.8% 4.9% 21.9% 1.8% 0.3% 15.7% 22.2%
Ray McCallum 2.8% 8.8% 5.7% 26.2% 2.2% 0.5% 14.7% 20.7%
Peyton Siva 2.0% 9.1% 5.4% 28.7% 2.3% 0.4% 18.4% 17.9%
Matthew Dellavedova 2.1% 8.0% 4.9% 25.7% 1.7% 0.3% 16.9% 17.9%
Raul Neto 2.3% 8.8% 5.5% 25.7% 2.0% 0.3% 17.2% 18.6%
Vander Blue 2.7% 9.6% 6.1% 13.2% 1.5% 0.7% 13.0% 20.3%
Myck Kabongo 2.0% 9.3% 5.6% 25.8% 2.0% 0.4% 17.1% 20.7%
Shane Larkin 2.0% 8.1% 5.0% 25.7% 2.1% 0.3% 16.9% 18.5%
Erick Green 2.4% 8.6% 5.4% 21.2% 1.8% 0.5% 12.7% 21.9%
Nemanja Nedovic 2.7% 9.1% 5.9% 17.4% 1.8% 0.5% 17.4% 20.2%
Seth Curry 1.7% 8.4% 5.1% 16.9% 1.5% 0.4% 13.8% 18.2%

ADVANCED STATS
Name PER ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
Michael Carter-Williams 13.6 102.7 102.3 5.2 5.4 10.4 0.084
Pierre Jackson 14.8 104.6 110.1 6.8 4.4 11.3 0.086
Phil Pressey 13.9 102.6 106.8 6.0 5.0 11.1 0.080
C.J. McCollum 14.0 102.7 105.5 4.7 3.5 8.0 0.063
Trey Burke 14.3 102.7 110.0 4.6 3.5 8.2 0.065
Nate Wolters 13.8 100.9 105.2 4.6 3.8 8.6 0.067
Lorenzo Brown 13.7 103.2 101.1 4.7 4.8 9.5 0.082
B.J. Young 14.2 102.5 106.6 4.9 4.4 9.1 0.072
Isaiah Canaan 13.7 103.0 111.0 5.5 3.5 9.2 0.072
Ray McCallum 14.8 103.7 103.3 4.9 3.3 8.2 0.069
Peyton Siva 12.6 102.0 112.4 4.0 3.8 7.8 0.068
Matthew Dellavedova 11.9 100.3 113.8 2.6 1.7 4.4 0.056
Raul Neto 12.4 103.4 112.3 4.9 2.8 7.8 0.062
Vander Blue 12.1 99.8 110.0 4.0 3.0 7.1 0.060
Myck Kabongo 13.7 102.1 106.0 4.7 2.9 7.7 0.062
Shane Larkin 13.1 102.7 108.4 5.2 2.5 7.8 0.065
Erick Green 14.1 102.1 109.3 4.1 2.8 6.9 0.061
Nemanja Nedovic 11.5 102.5 112.8 2.8 1.8 4.9 0.050
Seth Curry 10.9 100.6 111.1 2.4 2.3 4.8 0.054

Comp Analysis
Average of top 80 4.0% 7.4% 41.7% 25.6% 21.3% 5.86 6.88
Name All Star Very Good NBA player Average NBA Player Below Average Washout Aggregate weighted Comp Score Aggregate weighted comp Std. Dev.
Michael Carter-Williams 8% 8% 51% 16% 18% 8.06 7.69
Pierre Jackson 5% 10% 58% 13% 15% 8.38 6.92
Phil Pressey 5% 8% 66% 7% 15% 8.53 6.83
C.J. McCollum 0% 10% 40% 45% 5% 7.50 4.25
Trey Burke 3% 6% 45% 29% 18% 6.56 6.50
Nate Wolters 3% 11% 25% 44% 18% 6.06 6.55
Lorenzo Brown 10% 1% 34% 23% 33% 5.56 9.12
B.J. Young 10% 6% 29% 20% 35% 5.53 9.44
Isaiah Canaan 0% 7% 33% 40% 20% 5.34 5.92
Ray McCallum 0% 5% 45% 28% 23% 5.50 6.23
Peyton Siva 0% 3% 58% 17% 23% 5.91 6.22
Matthew Dellavedova 5% 3% 31% 44% 18% 6.03 6.80
Raul Neto 0% 9% 30% 31% 30% 4.38 6.78
Vander Blue 0% 4% 39% 34% 23% 5.16 6.05
Myck Kabongo 0% 6% 41% 23% 30% 4.69 6.86
Shane Larkin 0% 6% 39% 20% 35% 4.06 7.11
Erick Green 0% 6% 25% 34% 35% 3.38 6.74
Nemanja Nedovic 0% 1% 31% 15% 53% 1.44 7.02
Seth Curry 0% 0% 16% 14% 70% -1.22 5.95

PLAYER RANKINGS
#1 - Michael Carter-Williams
All-Star Gary Payton, Deron Williams 8%
Very Good NBA Starter Brent Barry, Kirk Hinrich, Jrue Holiday 8%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Alvin Williams, Corey Brewer, Darren Collison, Greivis Vasquez, Jarret Jack, Jeff McInnis, Marquis Daniels, Jordan Farmar, Rudy Fernandez, Luther Head, Rickey Rubio, Tate George 51%
Below Avg NBA Player Eric Maynor, Tyshawn Taylor, Acie Law, Jamie Watson 16%
Washout Javaris Crittenton, Drew Barry, Steve Bardo 18%
Easily the best of this years point guard class. Very good top end, and very limited possibility of failure, or below average production. Even his average player group is really nice. He is not a good shooter, but his usage is low compared, so it doesn't hurt him. Nice assist, and rebounding numbers, and projects to be a very good defender.
Here is a specific comparison of the next 4 rated players, to compare and contrast.
#2 - Pierre Jackson
All-Star Terrell Brandon 5%
Very Good NBA Starter Mike Bibby, Damon Stoudamire 10%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Isaiah Thomas, Brevin Knight, Cory Alexander, David Wesley, Steve Henson, Travis Best, Tyronn Lue, Tyus Edney, 58%
Below Avg NBA Player Bobby Hurley, Chris Whitney, Jacque Vaughn 13%
Washout Lionel Chalmers, Michael Hawkins, Randolph Childress 15%
#3 - Phil Pressey
All-Star Chris Paul, Deron Williams 5%
Very Good NBA Starter Jason Terry, Ty Lawson, Damon Stoudamire 8%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Aaron Brooks, Chris Duhon, Cory Alexander, Darren Collison, Earl Watson, Jordan Farmar, Moochie Norris, Raymond Felton, Travis Best 66%
Below Avg NBA Player Jacque Vaughn, Jonny Flynn 7%
Washout Chris Corchiani, Erick Barkley, Lionel Chalmers, Michael Hawkins 15%
#4 - C.J. McCollum
All-Star 0%
Very Good NBA Starter Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard 10%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Antonio Daniels, Jeremy Lin, Anthony Peeler, Orlando Johnson, Randy Foye, Rodney Stuckey, 40%
Below Avg NBA Player Charles Smith, Emmanual Davis, Doug Overton, Ronnie Price, Ronald Murray, Tierre Brown, Trenton Hassell, 45%
Washout Rodney Monroe, Terence Rencher 5%
#5 - Trey Burke
All-Star Stephon Marbury 3%
Very Good NBA Starter Mike Bibby 6%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Ben Gordon, Cory Alexander, D.J. Augustin, Jason Williams, Earl Watson, Kemba Walker, Moochie Norris, Terry Dehere 45%
Below Avg NBA Player Daniel Gibson, Littreal Green, Jonny Flynn, Lee Mayberry, Salim Stoudamire, William Avery 29%
Washout Andre Barrett, Antonio Burks, Erick Barkley, Kiwane Garris 18%
Name All Star Very Good Player Average NBA Player Below Average Washout Comp Score Comp Std. Dev.
Pierre Jackson 5% 10% 58% 13% 15% 8.38 6.9
Phil Pressey 5% 8% 66% 7% 15% 8.53 6.8
C.J. McCollom 0% 10% 40% 45% 5% 7.50 4.25
Trey Burke 3% 6% 45% 29% 18% 6.56 6.50
Pierre Jackson and Phil Pressey clearly have the best set of comps, Trey Burke has the worst set. Both Jackson and Pressey have by far the best probability of success, with small washout rates. C.J. McCollum has the tightest bell curve, so the lowest risk, but also the lowest upsdie. His best role is as a non-starting combo guard, playing minutes at both the 1 and the 2. Burke has the lowest ceiling, and the greatest probability of washing out. His StDev is similar to Jackson and Pressey, but his comp score is much lower.
Name FG% 2P% 3P% FT% TS% eFG%
Pierre Jackson 43.1% 45.2% 35.8% 80.4% 51.3% 47.3%
Phil Pressey 43.1% 45.9% 39.3% 76.0% 54.3% 51.6%
C.J. McCollom 42.8% 43.9% 38.4% 80.0% 50.7% 47.0%
Trey Burke 44.5% 47.4% 32.1% 70.0% 50.8% 47.7%
The best overall shooter is Pressey, and though McCollum and Burke have similar TS%, Burke is by far the worst of the 3 in 3 point %, and at the FT line.

PER 36 Minutes % of available
Name AST STL TO A/TO Pts AST% STL% Usage%
Pierre Jackson 7.80 1.63 3.08 2.55 14.46 34.8% 2.3% 20.3%
Phil Pressey 7.14 1.44 2.81 2.56 14.08 32.0% 2.1% 20.4%
C.J. McCollom 4.76 1.35 2.48 1.92 16.20 20.5% 1.9% 21.2%
Trey Burke 6.41 1.33 2.68 2.42 14.86 28.7% 1.8% 21.8%
Above are the stats that are the main point guard skills. Immediately you see that C.J. McCollum is different from the others, a combo guard. You also see clearly that C.J. McCollum is more efficient in turning his possessions into points (Pts per 36 minutes to usage %). With other 3 you see that Jackson and Pressey have been more efficient, and contributed more of the PG stats than Burke.
Name PER ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
Pierre Jackson 14.8 104.6 110.1 6.8 4.4 11.3 0.086
Phil Pressey 13.9 102.6 106.8 6.0 5.0 11.1 0.080
C.J. McCollom 14.0 102.7 105.5 4.7 3.5 8.0 0.063
Trey Burke 14.3 102.7 110.0 4.6 3.5 8.2 0.065
Trey Burke is considered the top of this years PG class, but in aggregate I believe that he is no better than 5th. He is not an efficient shooter, there are other players that are better passers, he is one of the worst defenders in the top 5. Burke's comp list is littered with higher usage, inefficient PG. I also believe that it is instructive that his best case is Stephon Marbury, while Jackson, Pressey, and McCollum all had best case comps who were not only better players, but also they were not inefficient "big names".
The knock on both Jackson and Pressey is their lack of size. Yet as you look through their comps you see a large number of solid to very good to great NBA PG's who "lack size". One of the strengths of the comp process is to really see the players most alike the potential draftee, so you can fairly assess what other like this potential draftee have done. Bcause the process includes both physical attributes and statistics, if the commonality is only in physical attributes, and not in stats, the 3 year projection will show the lack of similarity in stats. Chris Paul, Terrell Brandon, Mike Bibby, Ty Lawson, Damon Stoudamire, Aaron Brooks, Isaiah Thomas, Brevin Knight, David Wesley, Travis Best, Moochie Norris, and Darren Collison are ample proof that lack of size is not an impediment to success. I believe both Pressey and Jackson camn play in the NBA and be effective.

#6 - Nate Wolters
All-Star Tim Hardaway 3%
Very Good NBA Starter Stephen Curry 11%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Antonio Daniels, Doug Christie, Jeremy Lin, Gary Neal, Lucious Harris, Rodney Stuckey, Kendall Gill 25%
Below Avg NBA Player Eric Maynor, Emanual Davis, Nolan Smith, Charles Smith, Rodney Buford, Norris Cole, Tony Dumas 44%
Washout Derrick Dial, Jerome Allen 18%
Nate Wolters projects to be a really nice shooter, who will fit best as a 3rd guard, who plays both the 1 and the 2. He has some very nice shooters as comps, but as you move down to the below average comps they as a group are very poor shooters. Wolters has a very high % of below average comps, a very unique bell curve. That is the likely career trajectory for him, 5-6 years in the league, with a WS/48 around .040 to .070, a slightly below average player.
#7 - Lorenzo Brown
All-Star Gary Payton 10%
Very Good NBA Starter 1%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Derek Anderson, Alvin Williams. John Salmons, Marquis Daniels, Ramon Sessions 34%
Below Avg NBA Player Jason Hart, Acie Law, Tyshawn Taylor, Kyle Weaver, Tate George 23%
Washout Drew Barry, Javaris Crittenton Steve Bardo, Manny Harris 33%
Tremendous top end, 10% probability of becoming a Gary Payton type player. Tremendous defender for a PG. Has an odd mix of comps, from pure PG, to combo guards, to pure shooting guards, and even a guy or 2 that could defend 3's. My biggest concern is the fact that 1/3 of his comps washed out, and has a very non-descript list of below average players. High risk, potentially high reward, but too many better players ahead of him on this list.
#8 - B.J. Young
All-Star Gilbert Arenas, Russell Westbrook 10%
Very Good NBA Starter Rod Strickland 6%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Ben Gordon, Jeff Teague, Devin Harris, Avery Bradley, Brandon Knight, Toney Douglas, Delonte West 29%
Below Avg NBA Player Chris Smith, E'Twaun Moore, Qincu Douby, Nolan Smith 20%
Washout Armon Johnson, Jerome Dyson, Zabian Dowdell, Terrence Rencher 35%
See Lorenzo Brown. Different set of top end comps. Better offensive prospect, not as good defensively at all. Both Young and Brown would be good early second round picks for teams looking for PG depth, and depending upon teams needs each fits a different bill.
#9 - Isaiah Canaan
All-Star 0%
Very Good NBA Starter Jameer Nelson, Ben Gordon, Damian Lillard 7%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player David Wesley, Derek Fisher, Shammond Williams, Terry Dehere, Toney Douglas 33%
Below Avg NBA Player Bryce Drew, Dan Dickau, Ronnie Price, Litteral Green, Keith McLeod, Shawn Respert, Tony Bennett 40%
Washout Andre Barrett, Lynn Greer, Randolph Childress, Sean Singletary 20%
See Lorenzo Brown, and B.J. Young. Isaiah Canaan is second round material. He is much more of a combo guard than the other two. Depending on need, all 3 will make nice contributions, but none are starter material in the NBA.
#10 - Ray McCallum
All-Star 0%
Very Good NBA Starter Andre Miller 5%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Antonio Daniels, Bobby Jackson, Cory Alexander, Derek Fisher, Eric Murdock, Mike James, Terry Dehere, Tony Delk 45%
Below Avg NBA Player Bryce Drew, Keith McLeod, Norris Cole Rumeal Robinson, Travis Mays 28%
Washout Chris Herren, Kiwane Garris, Jeremy Pargo 23%
An OK prospect, mid to late second round value. Good shooter, solid passer, and can play some defense. Will end up as a 3rd guard on a good team, and if things fall into place could have a nice 5-6 year career.
#11 - Peyton Siva
All-Star 0%
Very Good NBA Starter Jason Terry 3%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Anthony Goldwire, Bimbo Coles, Charlie Ward, Chris Duhon, Cory Alexander, Darren Collison, Howard Eisley, Kemba Walker, Mario Chalmers 58%
Below Avg NBA Player Ishmael Smith, Negele Knight, 17%
Washout Chris Corchiani, Corey Beck, Dwayne Cooper, Michael Hawkins, Reggie Geary, Raul Lopez 23%
Peyton Siva projects to be a 2nd-3rd guard in the NBA. He is not really good at anything, but he isn't bad at anything either. Has shown that he can play well on the big stage, but he doesn't have a great deal to offer. There are so many good bigs, and SF's in this draft, so if he does get taken it will be very late. Would probably benefit from playing in a top notch European league to prove that he has some NBA skills.
#12 - Matthew Dellavedova
All-Star Steve Nash 5%
Very Good NBA Starter Antonio Daniels 3%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Jeff McInnis, Jon Barry, Ramon Sessions, Kevin Ollie, Brooks Thompson 31%
Below Avg NBA Player Bryce Drew, Jermaine Jackson, Rick Brunson, LaBradford Smith 44%
Washout Sarunas Jasikevicius, Vassilis Spanoulis, Jereome Allen 18%
Not really great at anything, but seems to understand his limitations, and doesn't try to do things he shouldn't. Average shooter, but has below average usage rate. A little better than average in assist, but below average TO so efficient in handling the ball. Might make the NBA, but I suspect he will have a career in Europe, where his skillls will translate better.
#13 - Raul Neto
All-Star 0%
Very Good NBA Starter Jason Terry, Nick Van Exel 9%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Kyle Lowry, Beno Udrih, Bimbo Coles, Howard Eisley, Kemba Walker, Brent Price 30%
Below Avg NBA Player Greg Graham, Ishmael Smith, Sergio Rodriguez 31%
Washout Wayne Cooper, Juan Carlos Navarro, Kevin Pritchard, Raul Lopez 30%
Raul Neto is a 6-2 180lb 21 year old from Brasil, who has played the last 2 seasons in the Spanish ACB league. Not a lot of difference between Neto and Vander Blue, Myck Kabongo, Shane Larkin, except that it would probably be easier to have Neto become a draft and stash candidate, and you can wait to see if he develops, or bring him over for his prime.
#14 - Vander Blue
All-Star 0%
Very Good NBA Starter Lattrell Sprewell, Jrue Holiday 4%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Cuttino Mobley, Derek Anderson, Roger Mason, Michael Dickerson, Marco Belinelli, Gary Neal, Arron Afflalo, Alvin Williams, Keyon Dooling 39%
Below Avg NBA Player Evan Turner, Nolan Smith, Kris English, Jordan Crawford, Austin Rivers, Courtney Alexander 34%
Washout Steve Bardo, Reece Gaines, Kevin Lynch, Malcolm Lee, D.J. Strawberry 23%
Really more of a SG, so rated low as a PG. His point guard comps clearly bring down his comp score. A marginal prospect, who might play for a couple of years.
#15 - Myck Kabongo
All-Star 0%
Very Good NBA Starter Jason Terry, Jrue Holiday 6%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Howard Eisley, Kemba Walker, Jarrett Jack, Luke Ridnour, Jason Hart, Tony Smith 41%
Below Avg NBA Player Acie Law, Ishmael Smith, Sergio Rodriguez, Vonteego Cummings 23%
Washout Jerome Dyson, Kevin Pritchard, Kenny Satterfield, Erick Barkley, Terence Rencher, John Celestand 30%
Someone will give him a chance, but when you compare his comp score and the quality of the comps for the players above him it is clear he is a margnial prospect. Would have benefited from playing another year to really improve. In many respects look a lot like Peyton Siva, and since neither really have much upside, better to go with the more proven commodity in Siva.
#16 - Shane Larkin
All-Star 0%
Very Good NBA Starter Jason Terry, Damon Stoudamire, Nick Van Exel 6%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Howard Eisley, Kemba Walker, Moochie Norris, Steve Hensen, Travis Best, Tyronn Lue 39%
Below Avg NBA Player Brent Price, Chris Whitney, Lee Mayberry, Tony Bennett, Vonteego Cummings 20%
Washout DeJuan Wheat, Erick Barkley, Lionel Chalmers, Michael Hawkins, Raul Lopez 35%
Shane Larkin as some of the same top end comps as players higher up on the list, but not in the same configuration or to the same degree. He is the darling of scouts, and in the best mocks. He "lacks size" just like Pierre Jackson, and Phil Pressey, and is seen as an explosive athlete, but he just above average, certainly not exceptional. The truth is, Pierre Jackson and Phil Pressey are quite similar to Larkin, but both Jackson and Pressey have produced much more, and have better comps, and project better.
#17 - Erick Green
All-Star 0%
Very Good NBA Starter Jason Terry, Rod Strickland, Devins Harris 6%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Eddie House, Brandon Knight, Kemba Walker, Marcus Thornton, Toney Douglas, Tony Smith, 25%
Below Avg NBA Player Khalid Reeves, Negele Knight, Acie Law, Chris Smith, Nolan Smith, Jordan Crawford, Quincy Douby, Norris Cole, Tyshawn Taylor 34%
Washout A.J. Guyton, Rodney Monroe, Terrence Rencher, Kiwane Garris, Juan Carlos Navarro 35%
Erick Green is much like Shane Larkin, rated very highly by scouts, and the various mocks. He has a very high probability of washing out, and his below average comps as a group are quite poor (Nolan Smith, Jordan Crawford, Quincy Douby, Norris Cole, Tyshawn Taylor). His better comps are fine, it just seems higjhly unlikely he will get there. There are too many better players in this draft for him to be considered.
#18 - Nemanja Nedovic
All-Star 0%
Very Good NBA Starter Cuttino Mobley 1%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Goron Dragic, Reggie Jackson, Jon Barry, Roger Mason, Shannon Brown, Marco Belinelli 31%
Below Avg NBA Player Royal Ivey, Kim English, Greg Graham 15%
Washout Andre Owens, Daniel Ewing, Gerald Fitch, Juan Carlos Navarro, Kevin Pritchard, Vassilous Spanoulis 53%
Not an NBA prospect, not even as a draft and stash.
#19 - Seth Curry
All-Star 0%
Very Good NBA Starter 0%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Howard Eisley, Luther Head, Chris Quinn 16%
Below Avg NBA Player Salim Stoudamire, Quincy Douby, Jannero Pargo 14%
Washout A.J. Guyton, Anthony Roberson, Juan Carlos Navarro, Trajon Langdon, J.R. Bremer 70%
Not an NBA prospect, 70% washout rate.
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