FanPost

Small Forward Rankings using Comparable Analysis

I have decided to do my ranking strictly on a position by position basis. My reasoning is two fold; 1.) I have a significant bias towards big-man, 2.) I don't yet know how to grade all positions, on a position independent basis. Big men produce more wins, but grading all players on just that scale is not the best way to view this. Any NBA team must fill 5 positions, and you cannot fill all 5 with only big men. While big men will contribute more to a teams wins, one must view all players through the lens of "opportunity cost". A center may out produce a SG, but if that SG out produces the average SG by 20%, then the choice of selecting the big man must be weighed against opportunity cost of passing on the SG. So until I can develop a fair way to assess all players on a scale that measures that opportunity cost, I think it is best to rate players by position.
I have separated all players into positions. Some players will appear in two groups (say C and PF, or SG and SF). I used DraftExpress and NBADraft.net as the arbiter on this, if they identified a player in a position then I included that player in that position group.
My Rank for SG Name Draft Express Top 100 NBA Draft.net top 100
1 Otto Porter 7 3
2 Anthony Bennett 6 7
3 Deshaun Thomas 51 29
4 Reggie Bullock 28 39
5 Andre Roberson 69 40
6 Jamaal Franklin 23 34
7 Glen Rice Jr. 31 35
8 James Ennis 56 32
9 Shabazz Muhammad 11 12
10 Rodney Williams 93 55
11 Sergey Karasev 20 27
12 Livio Jean-Charles 41 33
13 Solomon Hill 49 58
14 Joan Sastre 97 #N/A
15 Carrick Felix 71 56
16 C.J. Leslie 42 41
17 Tony Snell 39 16
18 Oleksandr Lypovyy 100 90

Below is a breakdown of all the centers based upon their physical attributes, their "Length", and their "Athleticism". You will not some players do not have data for some measurements. The final table shows what how well the player measured relative to the average of a player of his height, or other measurements, based upon size specific algorithms.
Physical Attributes
Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width
Otto Porter 79.5 80.5 198 6.7% 8.75 9.25
Anthony Bennett 77.85 79 239 0.0% 0 0
Deshaun Thomas 77 79 220 9.1% 8 8.75
Reggie Bullock 77.75 79 200 7.0% 8.5 9
Andre Roberson 78.25 79 206 7.1% 8.75 9.5
Jamaal Franklin 76 77.25 191 8.3% 8.5 8.25
Glen Rice Jr. 76.5 77.75 211 8.5% 8.5 9
James Ennis 77.75 79 206 4.5% 8.5 8.75
Shabazz Muhammad 76.75 78.25 222 9.0% 9 10
Rodney Williams 77.5 78.5 217 6.5% 8 9
Sergey Karasev 77.86 79 197 0.0% 0 0
Livio Jean-Charles 79.83 81 217 0.0% 0 0
Solomon Hill 77.5 79 226 7.6% 9 10.5
Joan Sastre 78.35 79.53 191 5.9% 0 0
Carrick Felix 76.75 78.25 203 3.3% 8.5 9.5
C.J. Leslie 79.5 80.75 209 8.0% 8.75 9
Tony Snell 78 79.25 198 4.9% 9 9.5
Oleksandr Lypovyy 78.5 79.75 192 0.0% 0 0
Length
Name Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches No Step Vert Reach Max Vert Reach No Step Vert Max Vert
Otto Porter 85.5 105.5 132.5 141.5 27 36
Anthony Bennett 85 0 0 0 0 0
Deshaun Thomas 82 104 132.5 136 28.5 32
Reggie Bullock 80.75 102 133 138.5 31 36.5
Andre Roberson 83 104.5 134.5 141 30 36.5
Jamaal Franklin 83.25 103.5 0 0 0 0
Glen Rice Jr. 81.25 101.5 134.5 142 33 40.5
James Ennis 83.5 104.5 134 141 29.5 36.5
Shabazz Muhammad 83 104.5 134 141.5 29.5 37
Rodney Williams 83 104.5 140.5 147 36 42.5
Sergey Karasev 81.25 0 0 0 0 0
Livio Jean-Charles 86.5 0 0 0 0 0
Solomon Hill 81 103 132.5 140.5 29.5 37.5
Joan Sastre 81.1 100.39 122.09 129.49 21.7 29.1
Carrick Felix 81.25 103.5 135.5 142 32 38.5
C.J. Leslie 86.25 104.5 137 145 32.5 40.5
Tony Snell 83.5 105.5 135.5 142 30 36.5
Oleksandr Lypovyy 80 104 132 136 28 32

Athleticism
Name No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint
Otto Porter 27 36 9 11.25 3.4
Anthony Bennett 0 0 0 0 0
Jamaal Franklin 0 0 0 0 0
Reggie Bullock 31 36.5 11 11.33 3.31
Andre Roberson 30 36.5 10 11.36 3.34
Deshaun Thomas 28.5 32 5 12.94 3.53
Glen Rice Jr. 33 40.5 10 10.99 3.25
James Ennis 29.5 36.5 7 11.55 3.38
Shabazz Muhammad 29.5 37 10 10.99 3.32
Rodney Williams 36 42.5 0 10.78 3.1
Sergey Karasev 0 0 0 0 0
Livio Jean-Charles 0 0 0 0 0
Solomon Hill 29.5 37.5 14 10.77 3.19
Joan Sastre 21.7 29.1 0 0 3.32
Carrick Felix 32 38.5 15 11.16 3.25
C.J. Leslie 32.5 40.5 0 10.19 3.1
Tony Snell 30 36.5 7 10.36 3.25
Oleksandr Lypovyy 28 32 0 12.14 3.43

Name Weight > than standard Body Fat % < than Standard Wingspan > than standard Reach > than standard Vertical > than standard Speed > than standard Agility > than standard Greater # bench reps than avg
Otto Porter -31 2.0% 1.47 -0.28 -1.87 -0.03 0.49 2
Anthony Bennett 30 0.0% 2.88 0 0 0 0 0
Deshaun Thomas 11 1.2% -0.12 0.51 -0.94 -0.14 -1.37 -7
Reggie Bullock -9 0.8% -1.37 -1.49 2.01 0.05 0.12 1
Andre Roberson -18 1.2% 0.53 0.7 1.97 -0.07 0 0
Jamaal Franklin -13 2.7% 2.95 2.31 0 0 0 0
Glen Rice Jr. 5 1.2% 0.43 -0.35 3.83 0.03 0.17 -2
James Ennis -3 -2.2% 1.38 1.01 -0.48 0 -0.03 -3
Shabazz Muhammad 15 0.8% 1.66 2 -0.3 0.02 0.41 -2
Rodney Williams 9 -1.3% 1.4 1.67 6.2 0.17 0.37 0
Sergey Karasev -12 0.0% -0.87 0 0 0 0 0
Livio Jean-Charles -13 0.0% 1.94 0 0 0 0 0
Solomon Hill 17 -0.9% -1.12 -0.49 0.42 0.19 0.75 1
Joan Sastre -35 1.8% -1.92 -4.11 -5.68 0 0 0
Carrick Felix -4 -3.3% -0.09 1 2.83 0.06 0.13 4
C.J. Leslie -20 2.1% 1.96 -1.6 3.38 0.22 1.33 0
Tony Snell -27 -0.1% 0.77 1.37 1.81 0.03 1.04 -2
Oleksandr Lypovyy -35 0.0% -3.25 -0.79 0.99 -0.11 -0.57 0
Among the notable bits of data
The tallest player without shoes is Dario Saric, who has pulled out of the draft. The next tallest is Livio Jean-Charles
The heaviest player is Anthony Bennett at 239 lbs.
The lightest player is Joan Sastre at 191 lbs
The player with the largest hands is Solomon Hill, and Deshaun Thomas, and Jamaal Franklin have the smallest hands.
Best leapers is Rodney Williams, the worst is Joan Sastre.
The longest wingspan is Livio Jean-Charles, and the shortest is Oleksander Lypovyy.
The quickest and most agile is C.J. Leslie, the least quick and agile is Deshaun Thomas.

Included below is the projected 3 year average statistical line for each of the players. They are broken down into specific categories, 1.) Shooting, 2.) Accumulation per 36 minutes, 3.) % Rate Stats, and 4.) Advanced Measurements.
SHOOTING EFFICIENCY
Name FG% 2P% 3P% FT% TS% eFG%
Otto Porter 46.1% 49.3% 36.5% 78.5% 54.6% 50.7%
Anthony Bennett 45.6% 47.6% 32.8% 74.0% 51.8% 47.9%
Deshaun Thomas 43.1% 45.2% 35.8% 80.4% 51.3% 47.3%
Reggie Bullock 43.1% 45.9% 39.3% 76.0% 54.3% 51.6%
Andre Roberson 44.5% 47.4% 32.1% 70.0% 50.8% 47.7%
Jamaal Franklin 43.2% 46.2% 33.7% 80.1% 52.2% 47.3%
Glen Rice Jr. 43.0% 45.6% 36.0% 76.1% 51.5% 47.9%
James Ennis 45.6% 51.5% 36.0% 77.9% 55.7% 52.6%
Shabazz Muhammad 41.7% 43.3% 36.7% 78.5% 50.3% 46.5%
Rodney Williams 45.6% 48.6% 35.8% 73.0% 53.1% 49.9%
Sergey Karasev 43.3% 44.5% 41.0% 80.8% 53.8% 50.3%
Livio Jean-Charles 48.4% 51.3% 36.1% 74.8% 55.7% 52.0%
Solomon Hill 44.3% 46.5% 37.3% 75.2% 52.7% 49.2%
Joan Sastre 44.5% 47.8% 34.7% 77.9% 53.1% 49.5%
Carrick Felix 44.7% 49.4% 35.8% 72.1% 53.6% 51.1%
C.J. Leslie 46.2% 47.8% 31.1% 71.1% 51.7% 47.8%
Tony Snell 42.3% 45.8% 36.7% 76.7% 52.4% 49.4%
Oleksandr Lypovyy 41.6% 44.4% 31.7% 72.9% 48.7% 45.3%

ACCUMULATION STATS PER 36 MINUTES
Name ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
Otto Porter 1.7 4.5 6.1 2.2 1.2 0.6 1.5 2.9 13.2
Anthony Bennett 2.2 5.2 7.4 1.8 1.0 0.8 1.9 3.3 15.8
Deshaun Thomas 1.5 3.4 5.0 2.2 1.0 0.4 1.5 2.7 16.0
Reggie Bullock 1.1 4.0 5.2 2.3 1.1 0.3 1.5 2.6 13.0
Andre Roberson 2.2 5.6 7.8 2.3 1.6 0.7 1.8 3.2 11.3
Jamaal Franklin 1.4 4.1 5.6 3.0 1.6 0.5 2.2 2.8 14.8
Glen Rice Jr. 1.5 4.1 5.6 2.5 1.1 0.5 1.7 2.9 14.0
James Ennis 1.3 4.0 5.3 2.1 1.2 0.8 1.7 3.0 12.6
Shabazz Muhammad 1.5 3.5 5.0 1.9 1.1 0.4 1.5 2.6 15.4
Rodney Williams 1.6 3.6 5.2 2.2 1.2 0.6 1.6 2.9 13.3
Sergey Karasev 0.9 3.1 3.9 2.9 0.9 0.4 1.9 3.2 15.9
Livio Jean-Charles 2.0 4.3 6.2 1.7 0.9 0.8 1.6 3.2 12.4
Solomon Hill 1.7 4.4 6.0 2.6 1.2 0.4 1.8 3.1 12.1
Joan Sastre 1.6 4.0 5.6 2.9 1.2 0.5 1.8 2.9 12.5
Carrick Felix 1.2 4.3 5.4 2.1 1.1 0.6 1.7 2.9 12.3
C.J. Leslie 2.4 4.9 7.1 2.0 1.2 1.1 2.3 3.9 14.1
Tony Snell 0.9 3.5 4.3 2.4 1.0 0.6 1.7 2.8 13.1
Oleksandr Lypovyy 1.6 3.9 5.2 3.8 1.2 0.5 1.9 3.7 10.6

% RATE STATS BASED UPON BASKETBALL REFERENCE FORMULAS
Name ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
Otto Porter 5.1% 14.1% 9.5% 9.9% 1.6% 1.2% 10.3% 17.9%
Anthony Bennett 7.0% 16.9% 11.9% 7.9% 1.4% 1.7% 11.7% 18.9%
Deshaun Thomas 4.8% 11.0% 7.8% 9.8% 1.5% 0.8% 9.1% 21.5%
Reggie Bullock 3.4% 12.7% 8.3% 10.0% 1.6% 0.7% 10.8% 15.9%
Andre Roberson 7.1% 17.9% 12.7% 9.3% 2.1% 1.4% 13.3% 16.1%
Jamaal Franklin 4.1% 13.1% 8.8% 13.0% 2.0% 0.9% 13.7% 19.2%
Glen Rice Jr. 4.7% 13.3% 9.1% 11.1% 1.6% 1.1% 11.9% 16.2%
James Ennis 4.2% 12.5% 8.2% 9.3% 1.8% 1.6% 12.4% 16.6%
Shabazz Muhammad 4.7% 10.5% 7.7% 8.3% 1.5% 0.8% 10.0% 19.9%
Rodney Williams 5.0% 11.3% 8.1% 9.5% 1.6% 1.3% 11.0% 18.1%
Sergey Karasev 2.8% 9.4% 5.8% 12.4% 1.2% 0.7% 10.7% 18.5%
Livio Jean-Charles 6.4% 13.3% 9.7% 7.2% 1.3% 1.5% 11.5% 15.7%
Solomon Hill 5.2% 13.4% 9.2% 10.8% 1.7% 0.8% 13.2% 16.5%
Joan Sastre 4.9% 12.2% 8.5% 11.1% 1.7% 1.0% 13.1% 15.2%
Carrick Felix 3.7% 13.0% 8.3% 8.8% 1.5% 1.3% 12.0% 16.7%
C.J. Leslie 7.3% 14.9% 10.9% 8.3% 1.6% 2.0% 14.1% 19.1%
Tony Snell 2.6% 10.9% 6.4% 10.7% 1.4% 1.3% 12.0% 17.4%
Oleksandr Lypovyy 4.9% 11.4% 8.1% 14.5% 1.7% 1.0% 14.2% 14.8%

ADVANCED STATS
Name PER ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
Otto Porter 14.0 112.1 104.4 6.7 5.5 12.1 0.095
Anthony Bennett 13.8 105.6 106.0 4.9 5.3 10.1 0.086
Deshaun Thomas 14.6 106.9 105.1 8.3 4.0 12.6 0.090
Reggie Bullock 12.2 105.4 101.7 5.0 5.2 9.9 0.087
Andre Roberson 12.7 101.0 89.6 4.3 6.6 10.3 0.090
Jamaal Franklin 13.2 105.4 100.2 5.3 5.6 10.4 0.086
Glen Rice Jr. 12.4 107.7 103.3 5.6 5.8 10.9 0.083
James Ennis 13.0 106.5 108.4 4.6 5.3 9.8 0.088
Shabazz Muhammad 13.0 103.4 113.6 5.2 3.4 8.9 0.071
Rodney Williams 12.7 102.9 107.8 5.7 5.0 10.7 0.080
Sergey Karasev 12.2 105.2 119.7 4.5 2.8 7.6 0.063
Livio Jean-Charles 12.2 106.2 110.7 5.5 4.2 9.8 0.093
Solomon Hill 12.3 105.8 109.4 5.1 4.9 10.0 0.085
Joan Sastre 11.9 113.3 111.7 5.6 3.7 9.4 0.084
Carrick Felix 11.6 104.4 108.7 3.5 4.9 8.2 0.065
C.J. Leslie 12.5 102.7 105.5 2.3 4.3 6.6 0.064
Tony Snell 11.4 102.2 114.2 2.9 3.9 7.3 0.067
Oleksandr Lypovyy 10.5 95.3 112.9 2.8 2.9 6.2 0.061

Average of top 80 4.0% 7.4% 41.7% 25.6% 21.3% 5.86 6.88
Name All Star Very Good NBA player Average NBA Player Below Average Washout Aggregate weighted Comp Score Aggregate weighted comp Std. Dev.
Otto Porter 5% 8% 34% 28% 25% 5.97 7.78
Anthony Bennett 0% 11% 56% 21% 13% 7.66 5.50
Deshaun Thomas 14% 7% 58% 14% 10% 10.47 8.58
Reggie Bullock 0% 1% 73% 21% 5% 8.25 3.58
Andre Roberson 0% 14% 68% 15% 3% 9.59 3.31
Jamaal Franklin 5% 5% 34% 21% 35% 4.69 8.13
Glen Rice Jr. 3% 2% 68% 10% 18% 7.34 6.41
James Ennis 0% 10% 61% 14% 15% 7.53 5.74
Shabazz Muhammad 6% 4% 48% 24% 18% 7.28 7.15
Rodney Williams 8% 4% 52% 22% 15% 7.97 7.27
Sergey Karasev 8% 3% 23% 32% 35% 4.41 8.52
Livio Jean-Charles 0% 4% 49% 19% 28% 5.16 6.66
Solomon Hill 0% 6% 63% 14% 18% 6.97 5.94
Joan Sastre 0% 5% 34% 33% 28% 4.47 6.39
Carrick Felix 0% 3% 49% 26% 23% 5.44 6.10
C.J. Leslie 0% 1% 59% 11% 30% 5.00 6.77
Tony Snell 0% 8% 49% 26% 18% 6.44 5.85
Oleksandr Lypovyy 0% 0% 33% 35% 33% 3.38 6.22

PLAYER RANKINGS
#1 - Otto Porter
All-Star Luol Deng 5%
Very Good NBA Starter Mike Miller, Danilo Gallinari 8%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Nicolas Batum, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Jared Dudley, Josh Childress, Luc Mbah A Moute, Malik Sealy 34%
Below Avg NBA Player Al-Farouq Aminu, Evan Turner, Adam Morrison, Dermarr Johnson, Wesley Johnson, Devin Ebanks 28%
Washout Luke Jackson, Jawad Williams, Vincent Yarborough 25%
Of all the SF Otto Porter projects to have the highest WS/48, O/D Rtg delta of +8, and a PER of 14. He projects a TS% of 54.6, and an eFG% over 50%. There is nothing in his accumulation stats that cause a concern, and a some very positive indictors. His best case comps are a nice and very diverse mix of players that score, rebound, defend, and pass. The only issue of concern is that 5 of his below average NBA player comps were high draft picks. Obviously those players skills didn't translate into the NBA, and they weigh down Porter's 3 year projected stats. I think Porter will succeed, but there is a 53% chance he will be below average or worse, just like the group of Al-Farouq Aminu, Evan Turner, Adam Morrison, Dermarr Johnson, Wesley Johnson,, and Luke Jackson. That has to concern any NBA GM.
#2 - Anthony Bennett
All-Star 0%
Very Good NBA Starter Danny Granger, Paul Millsap, Kawhi Leonard 11%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Al Thornton, Brandon Bass, Clarence Weatherspoon, Derrick Williams, Jared Sullinger, Lamond Murray, Ryan Gomes, Terrence Jones, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 56%
Below Avg NBA Player Ike Diogu, Mike Sweetney, Draymond Green, Jeff Adrien, Lazar Hayward 21%
Washout Damion James, Brandon Hunter, Justin Reed 13%
Lets compare and contrast Anthony Bennett and Otto Porter. Bennett is not nearly as an efficient shooter as Otto Porter who has a better FG%, 2PT%, 3PT%, TS%, and eFG%. Bennett projects to be a better rebounder, but also projects to commit more turnovers and personal fouls. Bennett projects to score more but that is driven by a higher usage rate, and as a result Porters ORtg is 6.5 points per 100 possessions better. On the defensive end they are quite similar, as their DRtg is differential is certainly within the margin for error. As far as the comps comparison, Bennett projects as a lower risk player, and both have similar top ends. Granger, Millsap, and Leonard are 3 excellent comps, and Bennett has a nice array of solid league average comps, and this group expresses well Bennett's higher rebounding and usage rates. The difference between the two is quite small, and I chose Porter because of his higher WS/48, better PER, and higher ORtg/DRtg delta.
Next I am going to compare and contrast three players, each of which is quite different form the others.
#3 - Deshaun Thomas
All-Star Vince Carter, Luol Deng, Michael Finley 14%
Very Good NBA Starter Michael Redd 7%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Fred Hoiberg, Chris Mills, Desmond Mason, Calbert Cheaney, Eric Piatkowski, Morris Peterson, Jarvis Hayes, Landry Fields 58%
Below Avg NBA Player Sam Young, Quincy Lewis 14%
Washout Maurice Ager, Dave Johnson 10%
#4 - Reggie Bullock
All-Star 0%
Very Good NBA Starter Danny Green 1%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Kyle Korver, Jared Dudley, Gordon Hayward, Chase Budinger, Brandon Rush, John Salmons, Luther Head 73%
Below Avg NBA Player Daequan Cook, Darius Miller, Wayne Ellington 21%
Washout Luke Jackson 5%
#5 - Andre Roberson
All-Star 0%
Very Good NBA Starter Robert Horry, LaPhonso Ellis 14%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Jerome Williams, James Posey, Thabo Sefolosha, Desmond Mason, George Lynch, Landry Fields, Scott Burrell, Terrence Jones 68%
Below Avg NBA Player Linton Johnson, Quincy Lewis, Roshown McLeod, Tremaine Fowlkes 15%
Washout Kasib Powell 3%
Name All Star Very Good Player Average NBA Player Below Average Washout Comp Score Comp Std. Dev.
Deshaun Thomas 14% 7% 58% 14% 10% 10.47 8.6
Reggie Bullock 0% 1% 73% 21% 5% 8.25 3.6
Andre Roberson 0% 14% 68% 15% 3% 9.59 3.3

Name FG% 2P% 3P% FT% TS% eFG%
Deshaun Thomas 43.1% 45.2% 35.8% 80.4% 51.3% 47.3%
Reggie Bullock 43.1% 45.9% 39.3% 76.0% 54.3% 51.6%
Andre Roberson 44.5% 47.4% 32.1% 70.0% 50.8% 47.7%
Name ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
Deshaun Thomas 4.8% 11.0% 7.8% 9.8% 1.5% 0.8% 9.1% 21.5%
Reggie Bullock 3.4% 12.7% 8.3% 10.0% 1.6% 0.7% 10.8% 15.9%
Andre Roberson 7.1% 17.9% 12.7% 9.3% 2.1% 1.4% 13.3% 16.1%
Name PER ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
Deshaun Thomas 14.6 106.9 105.1 8.3 4.0 12.6 0.090
Reggie Bullock 12.2 105.4 101.7 5.0 5.2 9.9 0.087
Andre Roberson 12.7 101.0 89.6 4.3 6.6 10.3 0.090

As you can see we have 3 very different players, who have completely different strengths and weaknesses, and they have no common NBA comps. Deshaun Thomas has the highest % of all-stars by a large margin, but he also has the highest washout rate. Reggie Bullock has the lowest upside, but you are almost guaranteed that you will get a solid league average player who play a decade or more. Andre Roberson has a high probability of being an average NBA player or better, and the lowest risk of washing out. Deshaun Thomas projects to be the best scorer, but also the worst defender. Reggie Bullock projects to be the best shooter, but he has the lowest usage rate. He looks like he will be solid both offensively and defensively. Andre Roberson will convert more opponents possessions into his teams possessions (rebounds, steals, and blocks, but he will turn the ball over the most and is the worst shooter. He is the best defender, and the worst offensive player. After 3 years each guy will produce essentially identical WS/48. The play differently, have different comps, have greater or lesser degrees of risk, but in the end they will produce the same.
Reggie Bullock is one of the lowest risk players in the draft, but with low risk come limited upside. There is nothing in Bullock's projected stat line that is a cause for concern. He is an excellent shooter, but he doesn't really bring a lot as far as accumulation stats, but nothing is a negative. The one thing that has kept Bullock from becoming a high lottery pick is his usage rate. Being an efficient shooter is great, but to become a great player requires a willingness to increase your usage to take advantage of your efficiency as a shooter. What you see in Bullock's comps expresses this. He has some excellent "ROLE" players like Korver, Dudley, Green, Budinger, and Hayward as comps
When you look at his comps, it is very surprising to me that Deshaun Thomas is graded as #51 by Draft Express and #29 by NBADraft.net. He has a excellent top end with 3 multiple all-stars, and another one time all-star who was also an Olympian. He also has very low risk on the bottom end. Deshaun Thomas is on the opposite end of the TS%/Usage spectrum from players like Bullock, and McLemore. He is a very high usage guy, with generally low efficiency. He doesn't bring much else to the table, but he is a very low turnover guy.
Andre Roberson is rated #68 by Draft Express, and #40 by NBA Draft.net. One of the biggest concerns expressed with Roberson is his lack of progression from his sophomore season to his junior season. That is obviously something NBA teams should be concerned about with all players, and in the case of Roberson it is accurate to say he treaded water when comparing his Jr. season to his So. season. At the same time you could say that Trey Burke, Otto Porter, Gorgui Dieng all treaded water as well, and Cody Zeller, Mason Plumlee, and Alex Len had lower production had lower production last year than the previous season. Regardless, if you look at Roberson's aggregate production and his projected NBA stats, he is treading water at a high level, and isn't even closing to drowning. His biggest flaw is poor shooting. That will not magically improve, if improvement happens it will come from hard work on his part and a good player development program no matter where he ends up.
Of this group of 3 I rate Deshaun Thomas the highest, mainly because of his obvious top end possibilities. I rate Reggie Bullock second of the 3, and I rate Andre Roberson third. All 3 of these players should go in the 20's, but I suspect that 1 maybe 2 will slip into the second round. In my opinion it should be a high priority for Portland to select 1 of these 3 players, especially considering that they have 3 second round picks. If Portland could get either Thomas or Roberson in the late 30's they will have made an excellent selection.
#6 - Jamaal Franklin
All-Star Eddie Jones 5%
Very Good NBA Starter Stacey Augman 5%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Latrell Sprewell, Doug Christie, Bob Sura, Courtney Lee, Lucious Harris 34%
Below Avg NBA Player Rodney Buford, Charles Smith, Dave Jamerson 21%
Washout Ben Uzoh, Manny Harris, J.R. Giddens 35%
#7 - Glen Rice Jr.
All-Star Brandon Roy 3%
Very Good NBA Starter Stacey Augman, Danny Green 2%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Bradley Beal, Brandon Rush, Chris Mills, Eduardo Najera, Eric Piatkowski, Josh Childress, John Salmons, Keith Bogans, Mickeal Pietrus, Randy Foye 68%
Below Avg NBA Player Greg Minor, Richie Frahm, Wayne Ellington, Charles Smith 10%
Washout Ben Uzoh, Jimmy King, Toby Bailey, Maurice Ager, Vincent Yarbrough 18%
I did more complete write-ups on Jamaal Franklin and Glen Rice in the SG report, so I won't go through those details here. I rated Rice higher as a SG, and I rank Franklin higher here as a SF. Both have guard and forward comps, but overall Franklins comps that were SF, or played a lot of SF, are better than his SG comps, as well as the fact that Franklin is such a dynamic rebounder. I think that suits him better to be a SF first SG second swing man, and visa-versa for Glen Rice Jr. I think both guys will be successful, and are underrated by the main scouting bureaus.
#8 - James Ennis
All-Star 0%
Very Good NBA Starter Paul George, Danny Green 10%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Nicolas Batum, Brandon Rush, Eric Piatkowski, John Salmons, Francisco Garcia, James Jones, Josh Childress, Mickeal Pietrus, Thabo Sefolosha, Renaldo Balkman, Marquis Danials 61%
Below Avg NBA Player Cartier Martin, Mickael Gelebale, Antione Wright, Darius Miller, Terrence Williams 14%
Washout Vincent Yarbrough 15%
#9 - Shabazz Muhammad
All-Star Luol Deng 6%
Very Good NBA Starter Michael Redd 4%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Jarvis Hayes, Tobias Harris, Harrison Barnes, Quentin Richardson, Brandon Rush, Chris Mills, Jim Jackson, Desmond Mason, Greg Buckner, Lance Stephenson, Gerald Henderson Jr. 48%
Below Avg NBA Player Alonzo Gee, Casey Jacobson, Chris Porter, Rodney Carney, Sam Young, Doug Edwards, Nick Young E'Twoun Moore, Yakhouba Diawara 24%
Washout Jawad Williams, Malik Hairston, Matt Frieje, Sam Jacobson 18%

Name FG% 2P% 3P% FT% TS% eFG%
James Ennis 45.6% 51.5% 36.0% 77.9% 55.7% 52.6%
Shabazz Muhammad 41.7% 43.3% 36.7% 78.5% 50.3% 46.5%
Name ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
James Ennis 4.2% 12.5% 8.2% 9.3% 1.8% 1.6% 12.4% 16.6%
Shabazz Muhammad 4.7% 10.5% 7.7% 8.3% 1.5% 0.8% 10.0% 19.9%
Name PER ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
James Ennis 13.0 106.5 108.4 4.6 5.3 9.8 0.088
Shabazz Muhammad 13.0 103.4 113.6 5.2 3.4 8.9 0.071

I could have easily included James Ennis in either of the groups above, and in many respects there is very little difference between picks 3-8 in the SF group. I included Shabazz Muhammad here, to articulate the drop down from the top 8 to Shabazz. James Ennis has a nice group of comps, with minimal risk, and some upside. For a team in need of depth at SF, there is no excuse if they pass on all 6 of the players from 3-8. Each has his unique strengths and weaknesses, and each would fit better with certain teams than others, but all could easily fall anywhere from 20-40. This group of SF creates a challenge to those who use the phrase "best player available". It is not nearly so easy to actually pick the "best player available", and it should actually be "best player available for this situation".
#10 - Rodney Williams
All-Star Vince Carter, Michael Finley 8%
Very Good NBA Starter Josh Howard 4%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Nic Batum, Brandon Rush, Chris Mills, Desmond Mason, Luc Mbah A Moute, Landry Fields, Morris Peterson, Quicny Pondexter, Wesley Matthews 52%
Below Avg NBA Player Alonzo Gee, Cedric Henderson, Darvin Ham, Mitchell Butler, Quincy Lewis 22%
Washout Donny Marshall, Kasib Powell, Sean Lampley, Toby Bailey 15%
Rodney Williams is a 6-6, 204 lb Sr. out of Minnesota. He is 93rd in Draft Express, and 55 in NBADrat.net. Williams is just a small step below the players from 3-8, and I grade him a little below Shabazz, because Shabazz has shown that he can produce even with less than desirable efficiency. Williams at this point looks like he will be efficient, but he will not convert that efficiency into production. He is worth a late second round selection.
#11 - Sergey Karasev
All-Star Allan Houston, Steve Smith 8%
Very Good NBA Starter 3%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Chase Budinger, Khris Middleton, Evan Fournier, Klay Thompson, Wesley Person, Marco Belinelli 23%
Below Avg NBA Player Chris Douglas-Roberts, Wayne Ellington, Jiri Welsch, Mickael Gelabale, James Anderson, Adam Morrison, Antione Wright, Austin Rivers, Courtney Alexander, Dermarr Johnson, Doron Lamb 32%
Washout Dwayne Morton, Kevin Lynch, Luke Jackson, Malik Hairston, Reece Gaines, Tarence Kinsey, Malcolm Lee, Trajan Langdon, Zoran Planicic 35%
Sergey Karasev plays for Triumph Moscow in the Russian professional league, and it is one of the better Russian teams, as Triumph was part of Euro Cup. Karasev right off jumps out at you with his comps to Steve Smith and Allen Houston. His average NBA comps are a nice group of role players. The problem with Karasev is the high probability (67%) that he will end up below average, and actually has his greater probability as becoming a washout. This is simply too much risk. You see this as well in Karasev's stats line. One final point is defense. The tool projects Karasev to have a DRtg of 119.7. This is simply because his comps as a group are poor defenders, and Karasev generates far fewer possession changes on the defensive end than any of his comps, while committing a greater than average # of personal fouls. He is not a lottery prospect, and I don't feel he is a legit first talent, but in the mid-second round he would be a really nice pick, mainly because of his top end comps.
#12 - Livio Jean-Charles
All-Star 0%
Very Good NBA Starter Antonio Davis 4%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Nic Batum, Tayshaun Prince, Aaron Williams, Dante Cunningham, DeMarre Carroll, Don Reid, Jonas Jerebko, Hakim Warrick, James Jones, Landry Fields 49%
Below Avg NBA Player Earl Clark, DeAndre Liggins, Victor Claver 19%
Washout Ed O'Bannon, Jajuan Johnson, Jawad Williams, Jermareo Davidson, Ryan Stack 28%
Livio Jean-Charles is a 19 year old 6-9, 219 lb SF/PF from French Guiana, who plays professionally in France. He has played two seasons in the French league, and during one of those seasons, his team Villeurbanne, also played Euro Cup. The French league is weakest of the ACB, Italian, Greek, Adriatic, Russian national leagues, and also weaker than the Euro or Euro Cup. Jean-Charles has played very limited minutes in France, so he is a bit of a hard read, but in 2012-13 he played 14 minutes per games, and was effective in those minutes. He has a nice future, and he is one of the best draft-and-stash candidates in this years draft. He has shown himself to be a very efficient shooter, has some passing skills, and an OK rebounder.
#13 - Solomon Hill
All-Star 0%
Very Good NBA Starter David Lee 6%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Kirk Hinrich, Danny Green, Mike Dunleavy Jr., Byron Russell, Chuck Hayes, Chandler Parsons, Chuck Hayes, Jared Dudley, Luc Mbah A Moute, John Salmons, Keith Bogans, Matt Carroll, Matt Harpring 63%
Below Avg NBA Player DaJuan Summers, Alan Anderson 14%
Washout David Noel, Donny Marshall, Malik Hairston 18%
Solomon Hill is rated 49th and 58 by Draft Express, and NBADraft.net. He has very limited upside, but he has a very tight bell curve around Average NBA player. Looking at his comps, it is fairly clear that Solomon Hill has potential to play in the NBA for a number of years, but he will never be more than about a 15-22 minute a night rotation player. he is a little better than average as a passer, and is an adequate rebounder, but he is going to struggle on the defensive end. Late very late second round pick is appropriate.
#14 - Joan Satre
All-Star 0%
Very Good NBA Starter Brent Barry, Kerry Kittles 5%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Boris Diaw, DeMarre Carroll, Rudy Fernandez, Jonas Jerebko, Khris Middleton, Landry Fields, Kyle Singler 34%
Below Avg NBA Player Mickael Gelabale, Nandi De Colo, Antonio Lang, James White 33%
Washout Sergei Monia, Terence Kinsey, Ed O'Bannon, Lance Thomas, Bobby Jones, Tarence Kinsey 28%
#15 - Carrick Felix
All-Star 0%
Very Good NBA Starter Jason Richardson, Danny Green 3%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Arron Afflalo, Brandon Rush, Eduardo Najera, Jeff Green, John Salmons, Josh Childress, Thabo Sefolosha 49%
Below Avg NBA Player Jeff Taylor, Antione Wright, Dahntey Jones, Dajuan Summers, Lazer Hayward, Terrence Williams, Wesley Johnson 26%
Washout Jawad Williams, Malcolm Lee, Reece Gaines, terrel Harris, Vincent Yarbrough 23%
#16 - C.J. Leslie
All-Star 0%
Very Good NBA Starter 1%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Antonio Davis, DeMarre Carroll, Donyell Marshall, George Lynch, Pervis Ellison, Tobias Harris, Willie Burton, Tony Massenburg, Wilson Chandler 59%
Below Avg NBA Player Anthony Bonner, Bill Burley, Marcus Liberty 11%
Washout Ansu Sesay, Ed O'Bannon, Chris King, JR Hnderson, Maceo Baston, Mike Batiste. 30%
#17 - Tony Snell
All-Star 0%
Very Good NBA Starter Kerry Kittles 8%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Nic Batum, Devin Harris, Brandon Rush, Francisco Garcia, Kieth Bogans, Luther Head, Rasual Butler 49%
Below Avg NBA Player Mickael Gelabale, Jeremy Lamb, Wayne Ellington, Rodney Carney, Darius Miller, James White, Sean Higgins, Xavier Henry 26%
Washout AJ Guyton, Malcolm Lee, Maurice Ager, JR Giddens 18%
#18 - Oleksandr Lypovyy
All-Star 0%
Very Good NBA Starter Brent Barry 3%
Above Avg to Below Avg Rotation Player Boris Diaw, Jimmy Butler, Jonas Jerebko, Sasha Vujacic, Marko Jaric, 28%
Below Avg NBA Player Antonio Lang, James White, Jamie Watson 33%
Washout Bobby Jones, Dave Johnson, John Celestand, Lance Thomas, Zoron Planicic 38%
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