Jeff Withey Comparable Analysis

One of the tweaks I have made revolves around the players comps. Initially I tried to identify a players absolute best case, probable/likely best case, most likely, and a probable/likely worst case, and absolute worst case. Someone brought up the idea of changing those definitions and place the comps into categories based upon their performance, not relative to the target player. I decided to do that, and I now have 5 categories; 1.) All-Star, 2.) Good to very good NBA Starter, 3.) Above average to Average to Below Average starter or significant rotation player, 4.) Clearly Below Average lowish minute player with limited career, 5.) NBA washout, basically players who didn't make it 3 years (recent draftees don't fit here, even if they have played only 1 or 2 seasons, I fit them into the appropriate category above based upon what they have done so far). I did this with Isaiah Canaan, and I liked it better. At some point this summer I will more specifically define those categories, based upon minutes, games, WS/48, etc., but for the time being this is purely my quick assessment of the overall quality of the comp. I am sure there will be some disagreement on exactly where a player fits, but I am ok with that.
I believe this part of the analysis is very important. As I said in a couple of the threads, the projections for years 2 & 3 are automatically going to improve as the washouts get cleaned out. This can give a mistaken impression of the player. If a player does make it 3 years then the likelihood is reasonably high that the player will hit close to his projected stat line. That is because, to make it 3 years, he has to produce. At the same time if he doesn't progress then often times they don't make it 3 years. So when you evaluate the stat line, recognize that the stat line should be viewed within the context of the players probable outcome which is expressed within the comp section, and is expressed as the nature of the bell curve for that player. The more washouts a player has the naturally higher his 3rd stat line will look.

Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches No Step Vert Reach in Inches Max Vert Reach in inches No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint
Jeff Withey 82.75 84.5 222 8.7% 9 9.75 86 110.5 137 139.5 26.5 29 10 12.49 3.47

Name Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat < than Standard (as a % of BF) Reach > than standard (in inches) Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected
Jeff Withey -19 1.56% -1.42 -0.07 -0.41 0.04 -0.34 2
Jeff Withey is 7-0 1/2" in shoes, 222 lbs. This means he is about 19 lbs. lighter than an average player of his height, and his body fat % is 1.56% more than you would expect. This is a bit of red flag regarding his conditioning. His reach is 1.42" less than average and his wingspan is 0.07" less than average. As such he would not be described as long, overall possessing below average length. His vertical was less than a 1/2" lower than a typical player, his speed was 0.04 seconds faster than average, his agility drill time was 0.34 slower than average, and he did 2 more bench press reps than average. He would be described as an average to slightly below average as an athlete.

Below are the top 20 Comp seasons to Jeff Withey at age 22 and 21. The 4th column is only statistical similarity, and does not include any combine measurements.
Jeff Withey Senior season age 22
Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity
Chris Bosh 19 Atlantic Coast 92.7%
Ken Johnson 22 Big Ten 91.3%
Joakim Noah 21 Southeastern 94.0%
Curtis Borchardt 21 Pacific 12 90.1%
Loren Woods 21 Pacific 12 90.8%
Mikki Moore 21 Big Ten 92.2%
Cole Aldrich 21 Big-12 90.6%
Marcus Camby 20 Atlantic 10 93.4%
Loren Woods 22 Pacific 12 90.7%
Elden Campbell 21 Atlantic Coast 91.5%
Taj Gibson 23 Pacific 12 90.9%
Ed Davis 20 Atlantic Coast 91.2%
Charlie Villanueva 20 Big East 92.0%
Mike Scott 22 Atlantic Coast 91.0%
Luke Schenscher 22 Atlantic Coast 89.4%
Cedric Simmons 20 Atlantic Coast 93.9%
Patrick Ewing (Sr) 22 Big East 90.4%
Andrew Bogut 19 Pacific 12 90.3%
Calvin Booth 22 Big Ten 90.4%
LaMarcus Aldridge 20 Big-12 88.7%
Jeff Withey Junior season age 21
Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity
Jared Reiner 20 Big Ten 94.1%
Cole Aldrich 21 Big-12 93.6%
Luke Schenscher 21 Atlantic Coast 93.7%
Ken Johnson 21 Big Ten 94.1%
Tiago Splitter 20 ACB 92.9%
Ken Johnson 22 Big Ten 94.2%
Curtis Borchardt 20 Pacific 12 91.7%
Jermareo Davidson 20 Southeastern 94.1%
Mikki Moore 20 Big Ten 94.3%
Calvin Booth 19 Big Ten 96.0%
Loren Woods 21 Pacific 12 91.2%
Tiago Splitter 21 ACB 90.6%
Loren Woods 22 Pacific 12 92.6%
LaMarcus Aldridge 19 Big-12 92.9%
Tiago Splitter 22 ACB 91.1%
Steven Hunter 19 Big East 92.1%
Taj Gibson 22 Pacific 12 93.3%
Luke Schenscher 22 Atlantic Coast 92.3%
Dwayne Jones 21 Atlantic 10 93.0%
Tiago Splitter 21 Euro 90.7%
NBA All Star or Better Chris Bosh, Patrick Ewing, LaMarcus Aldridge 10%
Very good NBA starter Joakim Noah, Marcus Camby, Andrew Bogut, Tiago Splitter 18%
Above average to below average NBA starter or rotation player Mikki Moore, Tag Gibson, Elden Campbell, Charlie Villanueva 25%
Below average, lowish minute NBA player Loren Woods, Steven Hunter, Cole Aldrich, Cedric Simmons 23%
NBA washout Luke Schenscher, Dwayne Jones, Curtis Borchardt, Ken Johnson 25%
Having just completed the Alex Len analysis let's make a few comparisons. Alex Len had only 3 comps who washed out, and Jeff Withey has 10. Alex Len had a 13% probability of projecting as a very good or better NBA starter, Jeff Withey has a 28% probability. The bell curve for Len had very skinny tails, and he had an 83% probability of being an average to below average NBA player. Withey on the other hand has a bell curve with VERY FAT TAILS, and a FAR LOWER PEAK. The risk is higher with Withey, but he also has a greater opportunity for success. Len is far less of a risk, but really his ceiling is pretty limited. Now Withey attended Kansas, as did another recently drafted big guy, Cole Aldrich. Luke Bouge just made a post regarding Aldrich. Cole Aldrich has to be considered a bust at this stage, and when look at Withey the possibility of washing out is very real. and should not be understated.
Jeff Withey has a very interesting mix of comps. He has a nice mix of all-star and very good NBA players, including LaMarcus Aldridge, Chris Bosh, Patrick Ewing, Joakim Noah, Marcus Camby. This is a very diverse mix of good offensive players and really good defensive players. It is the same with the middle group, some really good offensive players (Charlie V, and Ed Davis), and some exceptional defenders (Taj Gibson and Mikki Moore). You seldom see that much diversity in comps. At the same time is below average comps and washouts are really a very low grade mix of players. Withey made a very nice jump from his junior to his senior year, he has an 85% chance of making it as a senior, with a 65% chance of being league average or better. As a junior he had a 60% probability of being very below average NBA player or a washout. This has to be encouraging.

Average Adjusted Stat Line for Target Player
Season Shooting Statistics Totals
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Jeff Withey 1 208 421 49.2% 204 406 49.9% 4 15 20.0% 106 158 66.3% 52.8% 49.6%
Jeff Withey 2 267 546 49.0% 266 539 49.3% 1 7 15.6% 155 217 71.6% 53.3% 49.1%
Jeff Withey 3 327 650 50.3% 324 634 51.0% 4 16 22.5% 190 261 72.7% 54.9% 50.6%
3 Year Average 273 550 49.5% 270 537 50.1% 3 13 19.4% 154 217 70.5% 53.8% 49.8%
Season Accumulation Stats Totals
Jeff Withey 1 120 246 362 57 37 83 74 0.75 171 525
Jeff Withey 2 149 304 463 81 44 98 101 0.81 192 691
Jeff Withey 3 156 343 489 99 48 112 105 0.97 187 848
3 Year Average 144 302 445 81 44 99 95 0.85 184 704
Season Shooting Statistics per 36 Minutes
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Jeff Withey 1 5.16 10.48 49.2% 5.07 10.15 50.0% 0.09 0.33 19.8% 2.66 4.02 66.3% 52.8% 49.6%
Jeff Withey 2 5.46 11.15 48.9% 5.43 11.02 49.3% 0.03 0.14 16.5% 3.18 4.43 71.7% 53.3% 49.1%
Jeff Withey 3 6.09 12.10 50.3% 6.02 11.82 50.9% 0.07 0.29 22.5% 3.54 4.88 72.6% 54.9% 50.6%
3 Year Average 5.6 11.3 49.5% 5.6 11.1 50.1% 0.1 0.3 19.7% 3.2 4.5 70.5% 53.8% 49.8%
Season Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes
Jeff Withey 1 3.10 6.19 9.23 1.39 0.93 2.10 1.83 0.75 4.41 13.07
Jeff Withey 2 3.06 6.20 9.51 1.66 0.89 1.99 2.05 0.81 3.94 14.12
Jeff Withey 3 2.91 6.42 9.16 1.85 0.89 2.08 1.94 0.97 3.48 15.80
3 Year Average 3.0 6.3 9.3 1.7 0.9 2.1 1.9 0.85 3.9 14.5
Season Usage Stats
Jeff Withey 1 9.6% 19.1% 14.2% 6.1% 1.3% 4.2% 12.9% 17.3%
Jeff Withey 2 9.1% 19.9% 14.2% 7.5% 1.2% 4.3% 13.4% 18.6%
Jeff Withey 3 9.3% 20.2% 14.5% 7.9% 1.2% 4.2% 11.7% 19.6%
3 Year Average 9.3% 19.8% 14.3% 7.2% 1.2% 4.2% 12.6% 18.6%
Season Advanced Measurements
Jeff Withey 1 15.22 108.3 95.3 1.49 1.90 3.37 0.108
Jeff Withey 2 16.38 109.2 94.6 2.05 2.33 4.20 0.114
Jeff Withey 3 18.17 113.1 94.4 3.68 2.74 6.17 0.143
3 Year Average 16.73 110.4 94.7 7.2 7.0 13.74 0.123
Overall as a rookie Jeff Withey projects to be a little better than league average. This is important, because he rookie year includes a projection based upon all 40 comps, all the washouts are included. So even with all of his washouts, and a decidedly mediocre Junior year weighing on his projection he still projects to be league average or better as a rookie. As he progresses he moves from a little better than league average to being clearly above average.
As I noted in the comps section Withey has an odd mix of really good offensive comps and really good defensive comps. The results are the not entirely surprising, but the overall delta is frankly shocking. A player with a 3 year Orgy/DRtg delta of 15.7 is a potential all-star. Now my methodology for calculating these is not based upon a direct comparison. I do not have specific ORtg and DRtg scores for college players, but I do for pros. Thus I use proxy categories, and the collegiate relationships in those categories, to project ORtg and Drag. Generally the process works well, but I will admit that on rare occasions the results seem to good or too bad to be true. Regardless, directionally these rating are very good, so Withey has the potential to be a very nice player, AT BOTH ENDS OF THE COURT.
I just finished Alex Len so to compare and contrast Len and Withey. Len projects to a slightly better rebounder, but Withey projects to be a better passer, and shooter, who will block a similar number of shots, and will have a higher usage rate. Withey projects to turn the ball over at a lower rate, and commit far fewer fouls, and projects to get to the line more often, and to shoot a higher rate from the FT line. Alex Len is projected to go in the top 10, in some mocks as high as #5, while Withey projects to go in the late teens, early 20's. I believe Withey is the better prospect, and is certainly a lottery pick, and I am not nearly as high on Alex Len as others.
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