FanPost

Alex Len Comparable Analysis

I have taken a break on posting player comparable analysis, for a couple of reasons. I need to get the bench press data, included, and I also made a few minor tweaks to the model. It was also necessary to finish the comps analysis on the top 75 players. I will try and post a number of specific player profiles, and then I will do a position by position analysis, and then an overall draft ranking. Not sure how many more specific player profiles I will do, but I will try and get a number of additional profiles done, especially for players linked to the Blazers, and some of the players brought in for private workouts.
One of the tweaks I have made revolves around the players comps. Initially I tried to identify a players absolute best, case probable/likely best case, most likely, and a probable/likely worst case, and absolute worst case. Someone, I can't remember who and I can't find the post, brought up the idea of changing those definitions and place the comps into categories based upon their performance, not relative to the target player. I decided to do that, and I now have 5 categories; 1.) All-Star, 2.) Good to very good NBA Starter, 3.) Above average to Average to Below Average starter or significant rotation player, 4.) Clearly Below Average lowish minute player with limited career, 5.) NBA washout, basically players who didn't make it 3 years (recent draftees don't fit here, even if they have played only 1 or 2 seasons, I fit them into the appropriate category above based upon what they have done so far). I did this with Isaiah Canaan, and I liked it better. At some point this summer I will more specifically define those categories, based upon minutes, games, WS/48, etc., but for the time being this is purely my quick assessment of the overall quality of the comp. I am sure there will be some disagreement on exactly where a player fit, but I am ok with that.
I believe this part of the analysis is very important. As I said in a couple of the threads, the projections for years 2 & 3 are automatically going to improve as the washouts get cleaned out. This can give a mistaken impression of the player. If a player does make it 3 years then the likelihood is reasonably high that the player will hot close to his projected stat line. That is because to make it 3 years he has to produce. At the same time if he doesn't progress then often times they don't make it 3 years. So when you evaluate the stat line, recognize that the stat line should be viewed within the context of the players probable outcome which is expressed within the comp section, and is expressed as the nature of the bell curve for that player.

Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches No Step Vert Reach in Inches Max Vert Reach in inches No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint
Alex Len 85 86.25 255 6.4% 9 10.75 87.5

Name Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat < than Standard (as a % of BF) Reach > than standard (in inches) Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected
Alex Len 1 -1.70% -1.06
Alex Len did not participate in most of the combine because of recent surgery to stabilize a stress fracture in his ankle. He is Ukrainian, and he attended the University of Maryland for 2 years. He is 7-2 1/4" in shoes, 7-1 in socks. His weight is proportional to his height, and his reach is slightly shorter than average.

Below are the top 20 Comp seasons to Alex Len at age 18 and 19. The 4th column is only statistical similarity, and does not include any combine measurements.
Alex Len Sophomore season age 19
Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity
Evan Eschmeyer 21 Big Ten 93.5%
Roy Hibbert 19 Big East 96.6%
Evan Eschmeyer 20 Big Ten 92.0%
Matt Geiger 21 Atlantic Coast 95.1%
Matt Geiger 22 Atlantic Coast 96.0%
George Zidek 20 Pacific 12 94.9%
Roy Hibbert 20 Big East 94.9%
Paul Davis 20 Big Ten 96.1%
Patrick Ewing (Sr) 19 Big East 94.0%
Luc Longley 20 Mountain West 94.2%
Todd Fuller 19 Atlantic Coast 95.5%
Raef LaFrentz 19 Big-12 94.4%
Eric Riley 20 Big Ten 93.5%
Dwayne Schintzius 19 Southeastern 92.0%
Kosta Koufos 18 Big Ten 93.0%
Eric Mobley 22 Big East 96.0%
Cherokee Parks 21 Atlantic Coast 95.6%
Jim McIlvaine 19 Big East 93.2%
Jim McIlvaine 21 Big East 94.8%
Travis Knight 20 Big East 94.1%
Alex Len Freshman season age 18
Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity
Evan Eschmeyer 20 Big Ten 93.4%
Joel Przybilla 19 Big Ten 96.1%
Brad Daugherty 17 Atlantic Coast 95.2%
Jim McIlvaine 18 Big East 94.5%
Eric Riley 19 Big Ten 93.5%
Marc Gasol 19 ACB 95.8%
Dalibor Bagaric 23 Greek 95.7%
Roy Hibbert 18 Big East 94.1%
Matt Geiger 18 Southeastern 93.3%
Jake Voskuhl 20 Big East 95.7%
Francisco Elson 22 Pacific 12 95.5%
Jamal Sampson 18 Pacific 12 95.0%
Hasheem Thabeet 19 Big East 95.3%
Samuel Dalembert 18 Big East 95.1%
Rony Seikaly 19 Big East 95.6%
Eric Riley 21 Big Ten 94.6%
Samuel Dalembert 19 Big East 95.0%
Jake Voskuhl 19 Big East 94.6%
Greg Ostertag 19 Big-12 94.9%
Luc Longley 19 Mountain West 93.0%
NBA All Star or Better Patrick Ewing, Brad Daugherty 5%
Very good NBA starter Marc Gasol, Rony Seikaly, Raef LaFrentz 8%
Above average to below average NBA starter or rotation player Matt Geiger, Joel Przybilla, Luc Longley, Roy Hibbert, Kosta Koufos, Samuel Dalembert 40%
Below average, lowish minute NBA player Jim McIlvaine, Evan Eschmeyer, Jamal Sampson, Eric Riley, Cherokee Parks 43%
NBA washout George Zidek, Dalibor Bargaric 5%
Referring back to what I spoke about at the top of the article, there is 50% probability than Alex Len will end up as an average NBA big and a 50% chance he will end up as a below average NBA big. He has a nice top end with Ewing and Daugherty, but that probability is a very small 5%. His probability of even reaching the level of Seikaly, Gasol, or LaFrentz is also very low, less than 10%. The difference on the court between players like Przybilla, Geiger, Hibbert and the next group down of McIlvane, Eschmeyer, and Parks his significant, but all the players in the middle group had periods where they played like below average NBA big's. It doesn't make much at all to slip into becoming a very below average NBA big.
When you look at his comps, Len clearly looks like a solid NBA defender, but a player who will not make large contributions on the offensive end. Alex Len had a very nice Freshman season, but he certainly did not take a significant leap as a sophomore, as his performance while better, was really only marginally better. As a Freshman he average 4 blocks and 10 rbs per 40 minutes, and as a Sophomore he registered 3.1 and 11.9. This supports the belief that he will be a solid defensive player, and that supports the nature of his comps. On the offensive end he shot the ball well (57% TS%), but surprisingly his Points per Play was a disappointing 0.88 as F, and 0.99 as a Soph. His comps in general were good defenders, but limited offensively. Expect much of the same with Alex Len.

Average Adjusted Stat Line for Target Player
Season Shooting Statistics Totals
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Alex Len 1 154 325 47.1% 154 322 47.3% 1 3 17.5% 87 130 67.2% 50.9% 47.2%
Alex Len 2 227 471 48.2% 222 454 48.8% 5 17 21.3% 121 174 69.7% 52.4% 48.7%
Alex Len 3 269 554 48.6% 264 542 48.9% 4 13 30.6% 133 194 68.6% 52.2% 49.0%
3 Year Average 226 469 48.1% 222 457 48.5% 4 12 24.1% 118 171 68.7% 52.0% 48.5%
Season Accumulation Stats Totals
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
Alex Len 1 97 177 277 48 22 54 68 0.69 153 397
Alex Len 2 136 267 407 72 38 101 93 0.77 216 579
Alex Len 3 157 321 485 83 40 107 117 0.71 230 673
3 Year Average 135 267 406 71 35 92 96 0.73 206 572
Season Shooting Statistics per 36 Minutes
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Alex Len 1 5.26 11.19 47.1% 5.24 11.07 47.3% 0.03 0.12 17.5% 2.94 4.38 67.2% 51.0% 47.2%
Alex Len 2 5.25 10.94 48.2% 5.13 10.54 48.8% 0.12 0.40 21.3% 2.78 3.99 69.7% 52.4% 48.7%
Alex Len 3 5.65 11.65 48.7% 5.55 11.38 48.9% 0.08 0.28 30.8% 2.79 4.07 68.5% 52.2% 49.0%
3 Year Average 5.4 11.3 48.1% 5.3 11.0 48.5% 0.1 0.3 24.2% 2.8 4.1 68.6% 52.0% 48.5%
Season Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
Alex Len 1 3.32 5.96 9.38 1.58 0.73 1.83 2.27 0.69 5.29 13.50
Alex Len 2 3.14 6.13 9.37 1.67 0.87 2.33 2.15 0.78 5.01 13.40
Alex Len 3 3.30 6.72 10.16 1.74 0.83 2.26 2.44 0.72 4.83 14.12
3 Year Average 3.2 6.3 9.7 1.7 0.8 2.2 2.3 0.73 5.0 13.7
Season Usage Stats
ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
Alex Len 1 10.5% 19.0% 14.9% 6.3% 1.0% 3.7% 14.7% 17.6%
Alex Len 2 9.9% 19.0% 14.6% 6.7% 1.2% 4.3% 14.5% 17.0%
Alex Len 3 10.3% 20.3% 15.5% 7.1% 1.1% 4.3% 15.4% 18.0%
3 Year Average 10.2% 19.6% 15.0% 6.8% 1.1% 4.1% 14.9% 17.5%
Season Advanced Measurements
PER ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
Alex Len 1 13.06 100.8 103.7 0.57 1.32 1.85 0.081
Alex Len 2 14.02 101.7 102.1 1.37 2.09 3.46 0.098
Alex Len 3 14.11 100.1 101.6 1.33 2.57 3.86 0.095
3 Year Average 13.82 100.8 102.3 3.3 6.0 9.17 0.093
Overall as a rookie Alex Len projects to be a below average NBA big guy, but by his 3rd year he projects to be slightly below average. At the top of this article I discussed the shape of a players bell curve, and to understand how many of a players comps are washouts. Out of 40 comp seasons, only 3 players didn't make the league 3 years, or 7.5%. That is fairly low, which indicates the risk of him washing out a very low. It also indicates that Alex Len's 3 year projection is likely to be close to he eventual 3 year stat line.
As I noted above in the comp section in aggregate Alex Len looks like he will struggle on the offensive end, with an ORtg of 100.8 for his first 3 years. That is quite low for an NBA starter. His TS% a poor for a big guy 52%. His usage rate projects to be 17.5% which supports the notion that he will not be a significant offensive producer. This also supports why his PER is a clearly below average 13.82. On the defensive end though Alex Len things look different. Len projects to be a very solid NBA defender, who will make steady progress. I would like to make a comparison in contrast with Meyers Leonard. Leonard had an ORtg/Drag split of 115/110, and Len projects to be 101/104 as a rookie. This very clearly expresses the differences between the two. Leonard is excellent offensively, but clearly struggle's on the defensive end. Len will be the opposite, a defender, with limited offensive production. As far as contrasting these two in rebounding and blocks (expressed as the % of available rebounds the player gets and the % of available shots a player blocks), Leonard was 12.3%/2.4% and Len projects to be 14.9%/3.9%.
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