FanPost

Grading the SG's using Comparable Analysis

I have decided to do my ranking strictly on a position by position basis. My reasoning is two fold; 1.) I have a significant bias towards big-man, 2.) I don't yet know how to grade all positions, on a position independent basis. Big men produce more wins, but grading all players on just that scale is not the best way to view this. Any NBA team must fill 5 positions, and you cannot fill all 5 with only big men. While big men will contribute more to a teams wins, one must view all players through the lens of "opportunity cost". A center may out produce a SG, but if that SG out produces the average SG by 20%, then the choice of selecting the big man must be weighed against opportunity cost of passing on the SG. So until I can develop a fair way to assess all players on a scale that measures that opportunity cost, I think it is best to rate players by position.
I have separated all players into positions. Some players will appear in two groups (say C and PF, or SG and SF). I used DraftExpress and NBADraft.net as the arbiter on this, if they identified a player in a position then I included that player in that position group.
My Rank for SG Name Draft Express Top 100 NBA Draft.net top 100
1 Victor Oladipo 3 9
2 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 21 15
3 C.J. McCollum 8 5
4 Ben McLemore 5 1
5 Reggie Bullock 28 39
6 Glen Rice Jr. 31 35
7 Jamaal Franklin 23 34
8 Shabazz Muhammad 11 12
9 Carrick Felix 71 56
10 B.J. Young 59 61
11 Archie Goodwin 33 37
12 Vander Blue 68 60
13 Lorenzo Brown 50 25
14 Brandon Paul 67 53
15 Michael Snaer 66 63
16 Allen Crabbe 29 28
17 Erick Green 22 30
18 Alex Abrines 53 62
19 Tim Hardaway Jr. 32 20
20 Seth Curry 75 75

Below is a breakdown of all the centers based upon their physical attributes, their "Length", and their "Athleticism". You will not some players do not have data for some measurements. The final table shows what how well the player measured relative to the average of a player of his height, or other measurements, based upon size specific algorithms.
Physical Attributes
Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width
Victor Oladipo 75.25 76.25 213 6.6% 8.75 9.25
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 76.5 77.5 204 6.5% 8.5 9
C.J. McCollum 74.25 75.25 197 8.6% 8 9.5
Ben McLemore 75.5 76.75 189 5.0% 8.75 9.5
Reggie Bullock 77.75 79 200 7.0% 8.5 9
Glen Rice Jr. 76.5 77.75 211 8.5% 8.5 9
Jamaal Franklin 76 77.25 191 8.3% 8.5 8.25
Shabazz Muhammad 76.75 78.25 222 9.0% 9 10
Carrick Felix 76.75 78.25 203 3.3% 8.5 9.5
B.J. Young 74.25 75.5 179 4.7% 8.5 9.5
Archie Goodwin 75.75 77.25 189 4.6% 8.5 9
Vander Blue 75.5 77.25 197 4.6% 8.5 9.5
Lorenzo Brown 76 77.25 189 4.0% 8.25 8.5
Brandon Paul 74.75 76 201 5.3% 8.5 9.5
Michael Snaer 75.5 76.5 201 7.0% 8 9.5
Allen Crabbe 77.25 78.25 197 4.7% 8.25 8.5
Erick Green 73.5 75 178 4.4% 8.5 9
Alex Abrines 75.85 77 190
Tim Hardaway Jr. 76.5 78.25 199 6.1% 8 9.25
Seth Curry 73 75 179 9.6% 8 8.25
Length
Name Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches No Step Vert Reach Max Vert Reach No Step Vert Max Vert
Victor Oladipo 81.25 100.5 133.5 142.5 33 42
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 80 100.5 129.5 135 29 34.5
C.J. McCollum 78.25 96.5 128.5 135 32 38.5
Ben McLemore 79.75 100.5 133 142.5 32.5 42
Reggie Bullock 80.75 102 133 138.5 31 36.5
Glen Rice Jr. 81.25 101.5 134.5 142 33 40.5
Jamaal Franklin 83.25 103.5
Shabazz Muhammad 83 104.5 134 141.5 29.5 37
Carrick Felix 81.25 103.5 135.5 142 32 38.5
B.J. Young 80.25 99
Archie Goodwin 81.5 102 132 138 30 36
Vander Blue 78 100.5 128.5 138 28 37.5
Lorenzo Brown 79 100 128 134 28 34
Brandon Paul 82.25 98 131.5 137.5 33.5 39.5
Michael Snaer 80 99 131 136 32 37
Allen Crabbe 83.25 103.5 134 139.5 30.5 36
Erick Green 77.75 98
Alex Abrines
Tim Hardaway Jr. 79 101 132.5 138.5 31.5 37.5
Seth Curry 76 97.5

Athleticism
Name No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint
Victor Oladipo 33 42 15 10.69 3.25
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 29 34.5 7 10.6 3.12
C.J. McCollum 32 38.5 13 11.02 3.32
Ben McLemore 32.5 42 6 11.87 3.27
Reggie Bullock 31 36.5 11 11.33 3.31
Glen Rice Jr. 33 40.5 10 10.99 3.25
Jamaal Franklin
Shabazz Muhammad 29.5 37 10 10.99 3.32
Carrick Felix 32 38.5 15 11.16 3.25
B.J. Young
Archie Goodwin 30 36 1 10.75 3.27
Vander Blue 28 37.5 4 10.4 3.14
Lorenzo Brown 28 34 8 11.78 3.4
Brandon Paul 33.5 39.5 15 11.16 3.34
Michael Snaer 32 37 10 10.92 3.2
Allen Crabbe 30.5 36 10 10.67 3.32
Erick Green 5
Alex Abrines
Tim Hardaway Jr. 31.5 37.5 16 10.68 3.25
Seth Curry

Name Weight > than standard Body Fat % < than Standard Wingspan > than standard Reach > than standard Vertical > than standard Speed > than standard Agility > than standard Greater # bench reps than avg
Victor Oladipo 11 -1.1% 1.99 0.62 3.83 -0.04 0.23 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope -1 -0.3% -0.56 -1.02 0.28 0.19 0.7 -3
C.J. McCollum 8 1.1% 0.07 -1.75 2.12 -0.07 0.25 0
Ben McLemore -14 -0.5% -0.03 -0.04 3.87 -0.03 -0.85 -4
Reggie Bullock -9 0.8% -1.37 -1.49 2.01 0.05 0.12 1
Glen Rice Jr. 5 1.2% 0.43 -0.35 3.83 0.03 0.17 -2
Jamaal Franklin -13 2.7% 2.95 2.31
Shabazz Muhammad 15 0.8% 1.66 2 -0.3 0.02 0.41 -2
Carrick Felix -4 -3.3% -0.09 1 2.83 0.06 0.13 4
B.J. Young -10 -1.4% 1.81 0.42
Archie Goodwin -15 -0.9% 1.2 0.81 0.74 0.02 0.46 -7
Vander Blue -7 -1.6% -2.3 -0.69 0 0.17 0.9 -6
Lorenzo Brown -15 -1.5% -1.3 -1.19 -0.36 -0.09 -0.48 0
Brandon Paul 10 -2.4% 3.29 -1.23 2.1 -0.08 0.19 3
Michael Snaer -1 0.4% 0.48 -1.21 3.28 0.03 0.08 -1
Allen Crabbe -10 -1.3% 1.91 1 0.61 0.01 0.68 1
Erick Green -10 -1.7% -0.17 0.08
Alex Abrines -14
Tim Hardaway Jr. -8 -0.1% -2.34 -1.5 3.14 0.07 0.63 5
Seth Curry -9 3.4% -1.92 -0.42

Among the notable bits of data
The tallest player without shoes is Reggie Bullock at 6-5 3/4"
The heaviest player is Shabazz Muhammad at 222 lbs.
The lightest player is Erick Green at 178 lbs.
The player with the largest hands is Shabazz Muhammad, and Seth Curry had the smallest hands.
Best leapers are Victor Oladipo and Ben McLemore, the worst is Lorenzo Brown.
The best wingspan is Jamaal Franklin and Allen Crabbe, and the shortest is Seth Curry
The quickest and most agile are Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Vander Blue, the least quick and agile are Lorenzo Brown and Ben McLemore

Included below is the projected 3 year average statistical line for each of the players. They are broken down into specific categories, 1.) Shooting, 2.) Accumulation per 36 minutes, 3.) % Rate Stats, and 4.) Advanced Measurements.
SHOOTING EFFICIENCY
Name FG% 2P% 3P% FT% TS% eFG%
Victor Oladipo 46.8% 49.9% 37.7% 76.1% 55.3% 51.7%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 42.5% 46.2% 36.4% 79.0% 53.0% 49.4%
C.J. McCollum 42.8% 43.9% 38.4% 80.0% 50.7% 47.0%
Ben McLemore 44.4% 47.1% 38.8% 78.9% 54.2% 50.7%
Reggie Bullock 43.1% 45.9% 39.3% 76.0% 54.3% 51.6%
Glen Rice Jr. 43.0% 45.6% 36.0% 76.1% 51.5% 47.9%
Jamaal Franklin 43.2% 46.2% 33.7% 80.1% 52.2% 47.3%
Shabazz Muhammad 41.7% 43.3% 36.7% 78.5% 50.3% 46.5%
Carrick Felix 44.7% 49.4% 35.8% 72.1% 53.6% 51.1%
B.J. Young 41.6% 43.9% 32.5% 77.2% 49.2% 45.0%
Archie Goodwin 44.2% 46.3% 33.3% 75.9% 51.7% 47.0%
Vander Blue 43.2% 46.0% 36.4% 78.5% 52.4% 48.6%
Lorenzo Brown 43.8% 45.5% 28.6% 77.1% 49.7% 45.2%
Brandon Paul 41.1% 44.0% 37.2% 78.3% 52.8% 49.3%
Michael Snaer 41.5% 43.6% 37.9% 76.6% 51.8% 48.3%
Allen Crabbe 44.2% 47.1% 37.1% 77.0% 52.8% 49.7%
Erick Green 42.5% 45.0% 34.7% 80.0% 51.1% 46.9%
Alex Abrines 41.0% 44.8% 33.9% 78.1% 50.9% 47.1%
Tim Hardaway Jr. 42.2% 45.4% 36.8% 76.6% 52.1% 49.0%
Seth Curry 40.2% 42.9% 37.0% 83.9% 52.1% 48.5%

ACCUMULATION STATS PER 36 MINUTES
Name ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS
Victor Oladipo 1.7 3.8 5.7 3.0 1.6 0.6 2.1 3.5 15.9
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 1.1 3.7 4.7 2.4 1.3 0.4 1.8 2.9 14.9
C.J. McCollum 0.8 3.2 4.0 4.8 1.3 0.4 2.5 3.1 16.2
Ben McLemore 0.9 3.3 4.3 2.6 1.1 0.5 1.9 2.4 15.3
Reggie Bullock 1.1 4.0 5.2 2.3 1.1 0.3 1.5 2.6 13.0
Glen Rice Jr. 1.5 4.1 5.6 2.5 1.1 0.5 1.7 2.9 14.0
Jamaal Franklin 1.4 4.1 5.6 3.0 1.6 0.5 2.2 2.8 14.8
Shabazz Muhammad 1.5 3.5 5.0 1.9 1.1 0.4 1.5 2.6 15.4
Carrick Felix 1.2 4.3 5.4 2.1 1.1 0.6 1.7 2.9 12.3
B.J. Young 1.1 3.1 4.2 5.9 1.4 0.3 3.1 3.0 17.8
Archie Goodwin 1.3 3.1 4.2 3.3 1.3 0.4 2.4 3.1 15.1
Vander Blue 0.9 3.2 4.1 3.0 1.1 0.4 2.1 2.7 14.4
Lorenzo Brown 1.2 3.1 4.2 6.0 1.9 0.3 2.5 3.1 12.9
Brandon Paul 0.9 3.4 4.1 3.1 1.1 0.4 2.1 3.2 14.1
Michael Snaer 1.0 3.6 4.5 2.3 1.0 0.4 1.9 2.8 13.0
Allen Crabbe 1.1 3.8 4.9 2.1 1.0 0.6 1.6 2.7 13.4
Erick Green 0.8 2.8 3.5 4.9 1.3 0.2 2.2 2.8 15.7
Alex Abrines 0.9 3.1 3.9 2.8 1.3 0.2 2.0 3.1 13.7
Tim Hardaway Jr. 0.8 3.6 4.3 2.2 0.9 0.4 1.6 2.8 13.2
Seth Curry 0.5 2.8 3.4 3.9 1.1 0.2 2.2 2.6 13.4

% RATE STATS BASED UPON BASKETBALL REFERENCE FORMULAS
Name ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
Victor Oladipo 5.5% 11.9% 9.0% 13.0% 2.3% 1.1% 12.8% 18.7%
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 3.3% 11.6% 7.4% 10.1% 1.8% 0.8% 10.7% 20.7%
C.J. McCollum 2.5% 10.0% 6.2% 20.5% 1.9% 0.7% 14.3% 21.2%
Ben McLemore 2.8% 10.0% 6.3% 10.8% 1.5% 1.0% 11.6% 18.6%
Reggie Bullock 3.4% 12.7% 8.3% 10.0% 1.6% 0.7% 10.8% 15.9%
Glen Rice Jr. 4.7% 13.3% 9.1% 11.1% 1.6% 1.1% 11.9% 16.2%
Jamaal Franklin 4.1% 13.1% 8.8% 13.0% 2.0% 0.9% 13.7% 19.2%
Shabazz Muhammad 4.7% 10.5% 7.7% 8.3% 1.5% 0.8% 10.0% 19.9%
Carrick Felix 3.7% 13.0% 8.3% 8.8% 1.5% 1.3% 12.0% 16.7%
B.J. Young 3.3% 9.5% 6.5% 25.8% 1.9% 0.6% 16.2% 22.3%
Archie Goodwin 4.1% 9.8% 6.9% 15.3% 1.8% 0.9% 14.4% 22.5%
Vander Blue 2.7% 9.6% 6.1% 13.2% 1.5% 0.7% 13.0% 20.3%
Lorenzo Brown 3.4% 9.9% 6.5% 25.1% 2.4% 0.5% 16.4% 18.2%
Brandon Paul 2.9% 10.3% 6.5% 14.2% 1.6% 0.7% 14.0% 19.5%
Michael Snaer 2.8% 11.0% 6.7% 10.2% 1.5% 0.7% 13.0% 18.0%
Allen Crabbe 3.3% 11.9% 7.3% 9.3% 1.3% 1.2% 11.3% 18.2%
Erick Green 2.4% 8.6% 5.4% 21.2% 1.8% 0.5% 12.7% 21.9%
Alex Abrines 2.6% 9.4% 5.9% 11.6% 1.7% 0.5% 13.4% 18.0%
Tim Hardaway Jr. 2.5% 11.1% 6.4% 9.6% 1.3% 0.7% 10.8% 18.9%
Seth Curry 1.7% 8.4% 5.1% 16.9% 1.5% 0.4% 13.8% 18.2%

ADVANCED STATS
Name PER ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
Victor Oladipo 14.9 110.5 101.7 7.7 4.4 11.6 0.112
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 13.3 105.6 104.4 4.9 4.4 9.0 0.071
C.J. McCollum 14.0 102.7 105.5 4.7 3.5 8.0 0.063
Ben McLemore 12.7 106.8 110.1 5.0 3.7 8.6 0.063
Reggie Bullock 12.2 105.4 101.7 5.0 5.2 9.9 0.087
Glen Rice Jr. 12.4 107.7 103.3 5.6 5.8 10.9 0.083
Jamaal Franklin 13.2 105.4 100.2 5.3 5.6 10.4 0.086
Shabazz Muhammad 13.0 103.4 113.6 5.2 3.4 8.9 0.071
Carrick Felix 11.6 104.4 108.7 3.5 4.9 8.2 0.065
B.J. Young 14.2 102.5 106.6 4.9 4.4 9.1 0.072
Archie Goodwin 13.4 100.2 110.8 4.0 2.9 7.2 0.061
Vander Blue 12.1 99.8 110.0 4.0 3.0 7.1 0.060
Lorenzo Brown 13.7 103.2 101.1 4.7 4.8 9.5 0.082
Brandon Paul 12.2 105.7 106.2 5.3 3.9 9.3 0.089
Michael Snaer 10.8 100.0 114.0 3.0 3.2 6.4 0.054
Allen Crabbe 12.2 106.9 113.1 3.8 3.6 7.5 0.061
Erick Green 14.1 102.1 109.3 4.1 2.8 6.9 0.061
Alex Abrines 10.8 102.4 112.3 2.1 1.3 3.5 0.043
Tim Hardaway Jr. 10.9 100.4 118.3 2.9 2.4 5.5 0.053
Seth Curry 10.9 100.6 111.1 2.4 2.3 4.8 0.054

My methodology is based upon using a players physical attributes, and his actual collegiate or European statistics to find the best comparable players from the past to that potential draftee. I then use the actual progression and performance in the NBA of these comparable players to predict a potential draftees NBA performance. Because the process I use is driven by comps, I am very rigid in the "comp process". I do not try and find standard relationships that I apply to all players in some specific algorithm.
It is often said that some particular stat projects well into the NBA. While that may be true, you can always find lots of examples that are exceptions to every rule. I believe that often times the reason these exception exist is related to other measurables. By this I mean to say that while a strong correlation may exist between one stat and future NBA performance, that doesn't mean that it is a direct causal relationship. There may be a number of reasons why rebounding does or does not translate, or there may be positive and negative correlations. You may be able to find an algorithm that expresses one specific statistic very well (through a very high r2), it may only work well for some positions, and not all positions. In other words not all players in the population of potential NBA players will project appropriately using a specific algorithm.
My process is based upon finding, in essence, a specific algorithm for each and every player. The process of finding the comps is in many ways the same as doing a multiple linear regression, except rather than using that MLR to find a common algorithm for all players, I find one specific for each and every player. My logic may be flawed, and my success so far may be a combination of blind luck, or it may be that I am actually overstating the accuracy of my results, but I will let others be the judge of that. The process is certainly a work-in-progress, and it is not a complete or finished product. I am and will continue to work to improve it.
As I have said, the basis of everything I do is the comps analysis. I do this because I believe it helps people better understand a potential draftee in aggregate. So when evaluating a potential draftee, I want to stay true to the comp process, and express the draftee's comps in aggregate. What kind of players in general does he comp to, how much variation is there within the comps. The following table is a shows the complete breakdown of each players comps based upon the quality of the comps, a measure of value of the comps, and the degree of variation amongst the comps. The aggregate weighted comp score is a way to view all of a players comps in one value, and the higher this number is the better. An average NBA player has a comp score of 10. Std Dev. is the deviation a player has, and the lower this number is, the greater the probability a potential draftee will produce to his projected stat line. The Std Dev. is large relative to the Avg Comp score because of the way I weighed the various categories. I placed significant weight on All-Star, and I also weighed a Washout as a negative value. Whenever possible you want to draft future All-Stars, and you always want to avoid drafting future washouts. This will by it's nature create a high value for Std. Dev.
Average of top 80 4.0% 7.4% 41.7% 25.6% 21.3% 5.86 6.88
Name All Star Very Good NBA player Average NBA Player Below Average Washout Aggregate weighted Comp Score Aggregate weighted comp Std. Dev.
Victor Oladipo 3% 5% 53% 2% 38% 4.91 8.15
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 3% 4% 50% 29% 15% 6.88 6.06
C.J. McCollum 0% 10% 40% 45% 5% 7.50 4.25
Ben McLemore 0% 4% 45% 20% 31% 4.38 6.86
Reggie Bullock 0% 1% 73% 21% 5% 8.25 3.58
Glen Rice Jr. 3% 2% 68% 10% 18% 7.34 6.41
Jamaal Franklin 0% 6% 38% 21% 35% 4.00 6.84
Shabazz Muhammad 2% 8% 48% 24% 18% 6.84 6.32
Carrick Felix 0% 3% 49% 26% 23% 5.44 6.10
B.J. Young 10% 6% 29% 20% 35% 5.53 9.44
Archie Goodwin 3% 7% 39% 29% 23% 5.88 7.00
Vander Blue 0% 4% 42% 34% 20% 5.53 5.87
Lorenzo Brown 10% 1% 21% 20% 48% 3.44 9.68
Brandon Paul 0% 2% 44% 11% 43% 3.16 7.27
Michael Snaer 0% 3% 60% 8% 30% 5.25 6.88
Allen Crabbe 3% 0% 45% 13% 40% 3.75 7.76
Erick Green 0% 6% 28% 34% 33% 3.75 6.67
Alex Abrines 0% 1% 38% 28% 33% 3.78 6.40
Tim Hardaway Jr. 0% 0% 43% 18% 40% 3.13 6.86
Seth Curry 0% 0% 18% 14% 68% -0.84 6.17

PLAYER RANKINGS
#1 - Victor Oladipo
Victor Oladipo is an interesting case. He has the highest projected WS/48 of all the SF/SG/PG, and yet 38% of his comps washed out? This seemed incongruous, so I delved deeply into his comps, and I saw clearly the fickleness of the NBA. All of his washouts could have, and probably should have played in the league at least 3 years, in some case much more.. Malik Hairston, Sam Jacobson, Hassan Adams, and Charles O'Bannon all were effective in the limited minutes they played, and yet much less efficient and effective players took their roster spots and they plied their trade in other countries. In Oladipo's second year projection he has all of his washout contributing to his stats and yet he still projects to generate a WS/48 of 0.112, a PER of 14.7, and a ORtg/DRtg delta of +9. Oladipo is clearly the class of this years shooting guards.
#2 - Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
You regularly hear Ray Allen used as a comp for Ben McLemore, but as it turns out Ray Allen comped to Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and not McLemore. He has a very nice group of comps, and has the 3rd best washout rate for SG. Overall he projects to be the 4th best shooter amongst SG, but he doesn't contribute much anywhere else. His comps as a group are not very good defenders, but in college Kentavious Caldwell-Pope out produced his comps in defensive metrics by 5.5%, so if he is able to translate that he would be a little above average defensively. The key for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will be his shooting. As I said in his player profile page, it is critical that he maintain a better than 53% TS%, and preferably upwards of 54.5%. He is capable of that, but if he slips to 52% or less then he quickly becomes an inefficient chucker. The reason I say this is because Caldwell Pope is not a player that gets to the line a lot, so the contribution of 3 pt. shooting to his TS% is very important. I think he will maintain his efficiency, but his below average and washout comps couldn't maintain that level of efficiency, and as a result they didn't succeed. That will be the challenge facing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
#3 - C.J. McCollum
One of the most important parts of my comp analysis is to place players into their appropriate context when trying to project their success or failure at the next level. McCollum played at Lehigh, and obviously the quality of his competition will be quite different from what Trey Burke or Ben McLemore faced. How do you properly assess what McCollum has actually done in the context that he played in, and how does that performance project to the next level? If you look at McCollum's comps, only 3 of his comps came from Big 6 conference schools (Khalid Reeves, Randy Foye, and Anthony Peeler), the remaining came from smaller conferences. What kind of success have players like McCollum had, i.e. 6-1 to 6-4 high scoring point guards from small schools? It is very much a mixed bag. You have some good to very good to excellent players like Rodney Stuckey, Damian Lillard, Jeremy Lin, and Steph Curry. You have also had some below average players like, Ronnie Price, Tierre Brown, Ronald Murray, and Trenton Hassell, but very few washouts. You see this in McCollum's comp score, which very tight around the center, no all-stars, but basically no washouts either. This indicates that he is a low risk player, who has some potential of moving up to a very good NBA player. Finally the similarity between he and Lillard is amazing. He gets more 2's and fewer 3's, and didn't get to the line as often as Lillard which explains his lower TS%, plus Lillard was more of PG than McCollum. Otherwise they are virtual clones. I see his eventual NBA role as a 3rd guard, who can play either PG or SG, and who will bring instance offense, and more than adequate defense.
#4 - Ben McLemore
Ben McLemore is a very interesting case to me, the Alex Len of the SG. McLemore is graded #5 by Draft Express and #1 by NBADraft.net, and you see him popping up as the #1 pick in many mocks, and almost always in the top 3-4 of the better mocks. My analysis is far more harsh on McLemore. I have studied McLemore as much or more than any player to understand why my comp analysis downgrades him so much. First of all let's understand what McLemore brings in terms of production as that will help understand his role. For a SG, Ben McLemore is a pretty decent rebounder, but beyond that his role is very simple, SCORE POINTS, and play adequate defense. He isn't there to pass, rebound, generate turnovers, he is there to score, and the best way to score is to be an efficient shooter. That was the role his comps played in college. In terms of shooting rates, McLemore compared to his comps in college had the following rates 1.) TS% McLemore 63.4%, Comps 58.9%, 2.) eFG% M - 58.6%, C - 55.3%, 3.) 3Pt% M - 42%, C - 39.1%. In college McLemore had a usage rate that was 1% less than his comps, so it is fair to say that McLemore was a better shooter than his comps, with a lower usage rate. Once the comps transition to the NBA what you see is that their TS% fell about 8%, and were able to only get their usage rate to 19.3%. The challenge for McLemore faces, that in general his comps haven't been able to overcome, is he needs to keep his TS% in the 54% range, but he has to do that while maintaining a usage rate of 22% or better. McLemore's comps who were able to get their usage rate up to 22%, saw their TS% fall. Those who were able to maintain a good TS% 54%, did so only with a usage rate below 20%. Latrell Sprewell had one exceptional year, but otherwise his TS% was about 51% with a usage of 23%. Brandon Rush has a TS% of 54.5% but a usage of only 15.6%. Michael Dickerson got his usage to 21.6, but his TS% fell to 52.2%. The two players who were able to combine decent TS% and usage rates were OJ Mayo (53.6% and 22.3%) and Cuttino Mobley (53.6%-21.1%). Lets face it, OJ Mayo and Cuttino Mobley are not the kind of guy you take in the top 5. For McLemore to justify a top 5 selection he needs to be 54% minimum, with a 23-24% usage rate. Those players most physically, and statistically similar to him in college couldn't pull it off. In college McLemore was better than his comps, but it remains to be seen if he can build upon that at the next level.
#5 - Reggie Bullock
Reggie Bullock is really a better prospect as a SF, as I think SF fits him better, but he can play some guard which gives him some extra value. He is not flashy , or a stat machine, but he will have a nice long career. Think Kyle Korver, Jared Dudley, Jodie Meeks, Gordon Hayward, and Danny Green and you will be pretty close to Reggie Bullock. Definitely worth a late teens early 20 pick.
#6 - Glen Rice Jr.
Glen Rice Jr. was kicked off his Georgia Tech team after his Junior year, but after the draft cut off date, leaving him in limbo. He couldn't play in the NBA, and couldn't transfer without sitting out a year, so he opted for the NBDL. His stat line is the only NBDL stat line in my database, and I used his NBDL and his Junior season to project his stat line. Glen Rice is a solid shooter, but he is not a high usage guy. In many respects you could describe him as Victor Oladipo light. He can play in the NBA, and in fact I think he is probably worth a late first round pick. He is not the flashy shooter his dad was, and he isn't going to be a star, but his comps indicate he will be an average, but solid NBA SG, and will have a decent career. He is a better SG prospect than Reggie Bullock, because Bullock's best position is SF, but overall I think Bullock is the better prospect
#7 - Jamaal Franklin
I haven't done an individual player analysis on Jamaal Franklin, so I will publish his comps here. He is quite interesting, as only 15 players made up his 40 comp seasons.
Comp Name Statistical Similarity
Lawrence Moten 94.8%
Anthony Parker 94.5%
Manny Harris 94.5%
Charles Smith (UoNM) 93.1%
Courtney Lee 92.9%
Stacey Augmon 92.5%
Chris Robinson 92.5%
Latrell Sprewell 92.5%
Rodney Buford 92.0%
Doug Christie 92.0%
Ben Uzoh 92.0%
J.R. Giddens 91.9%
Lucious Harris 91.3%
Eddie Jones 90.9%
Dave Jamerson 90.7%
As you can see Jamaal Franklin has a very interesting set of comps. Eddie Jones, Doug Christie, Stacy Augmon, Latrell Sprewell, Courtney Lee, Lucious Harris and Anthony Parker all have had clear success in the league. At the same time Moten, Giddens, Jamerson, Harris, and Robinson were unproductive washouts. Franklin was an average shooter in college, his TS% was greatly helped by the volume of 3's he shot, and also the fact that he is an 80% FT shooter and get got to the FT line 8.25 times per 40 minutes. Franklin was an extraordinary rebounder for a SG, and generated a reasonable number of steals. At the same time he had a high turnover rate, and committed a larger than average number of personal fouls. In aggregate when you look at his comps, his comp score and StDev look poor. This is driven by just the few players identified above as washouts, as that group had multiple seasons that comped to Franklin. He projects to be a little more productive than Glen Rice Jr., and I believe he will push Oladipo as the best defender in the SG group, but because of his high washout rate, I felt I should rate him lower than Rice. He is definitely worth taking in the mid to late 20's.
#8 - Shabazz Muhammad
I have written 2 profiles on Shabazz, so I won't go into great detail here. High expectations are often times a double edged sword. They get you more focus and attention than other comparable talent doesn't get. People can get enamored with your potential and may miss your flaws. The other edge to that sword, is that the extra attention gives you greater opportunity to fail to live up to those expectations, and while some may ignore your flaws, others may obsess over your flaws. In aggregate there is not enough about Shabazz Muhammad to get me to push him above the players above him, but I think he does have some potential to have some success in the NBA. His degree of success will be heavily dependent upon his willingness to improve his flaws, and expand his game. He certainly is worth a later first round pick, but he hasn't shown enough to warrant being picked in the lottery.
#9 - Carrick Felix
The best case comps that I think describe Carrick Felix the best are, Jason Richardson, Josh Childress, Brandon Rush, Eduardo Najera, and John Salmons. Worst case are Reece Gaines, Vincent Yarbrough, Wesley Johnson. Felix was a more efficient player than Muhammad in college, but Shabazz had a far higher usage rate, and as a result he grades out a little better than Felix in the NBA. If Felix can get his usage rate up to the level of Richardson, Salmons, or Childress, and maintain his relative efficiency then he is a better prospect than Shabazz, but until he does it, I just don't fell comfortable with grading him higher than Shabazz.
#10 - B.J. Young
B.J. Young is a 6-3 180 lb. combo guard from Arkansas. His comps are below. Some really impressive names, but never forget to also recognize the bottom end of his comps as well. He is much like C.J. McCollum, a combo guard, who isn't big enough to play SG full time, but too much of a shoot first player to be a top notch PG. He is clearly a player to consider in the top 1/2 of the second round, maybe even late in the first.
Comp Name Statistical Similarity
Acie Law 94.6%
Armon Johnson 94.5%
Avery Bradley 92.1%
Ben Gordon 94.3%
Ben Uzoh 94.8%
Brandon Knight 92.8%
Chris Smith 93.7%
Cory Higgins 94.5%
Delonte West 95.5%
Devin Harris 91.3%
E'Twaun Moore 95.7%
Gilbert Arenas 94.4%
Jeff Teague 93.5%
Jerome Dyson 92.8%
Khalid Reeves 95.0%
Malcolm Lee 93.2%
Nolan Smith 94.6%
Quincy Douby 92.0%
Rex Walters 94.7%
Rod Strickland 91.7%
Rodney Monroe 93.1%
Russell Westbrook 92.6%
Terrence Rencher 93.4%
Toney Douglas 94.0%
Zabian Dowdell 94.5%
#11 - Archie Goodwin
I haven't done an individual player analysis on Archie Goodwin, so I will publish his comps here. Contrast him to Jamaal Franklin who had 15 players over 40 seasons, to Goodwin who has 36 players over 40 seasons. This is why Goodwin has a higher comps score than Franklin.
Comp Name Statistical Similarity
Tony Wroten 93.7%
Manny Harris 94.5%
Alec Burks 93.3%
Greg Graham 92.8%
Michael Dickerson 92.8%
Felipe Lopez 94.5%
Jeryl Sasser 92.8%
Derek Anderson 92.9%
Bo Kimble 92.5%
Richard Hamilton 92.7%
Dahntay Jones 95.6%
Bob Sura 93.6%
Ricky Davis 93.9%
Avery Bradley 91.8%
Felipe Lopez 95.7%
Trevor Ariza 93.7%
Jamal Crawford 90.1%
Malcolm Lee 94.4%
Jerome Dyson 93.7%
Demar DeRozan 93.3%
Todd Day 93.4%
Gerald Henderson Jr. 94.6%
Greg Graham 92.2%
Dahntay Jones 93.9%
Felipe Lopez 94.5%
Jamie Watson 95.2%
Kevin Lynch 92.7%
Josh Howard 92.7%
E'Twaun Moore 93.0%
Jordan Crawford 91.4%
Lawrence Moten 92.6%
Lance Stephenson 95.4%
Lucious Harris 93.1%
Cuttino Mobley 92.3%
Brandon Roy 94.7%
Austin Rivers 93.7%
Ben Uzoh 93.4%
Khris Middleton 94.4%
Malik Hairston 93.4%
Rod Strickland 92.3%
First thing you see as that the sheer variety of comps is very hard to grasp. When looking at the comp score he has a better than average comp for SG, but the variation in those comps is worse than average. In other words he could go lots of different directions, and that to me means "HE IS A HIGH RISK DRAFTEE". You do not select someone like Goodwin high, even if you like him, because the potential for widely divergent outcomes is very significant. He looks to be an inefficient, high usage guy, who will get some assists, but will turn the ball over, and will not generate many turnovers on D. His DRtg is 110, and O/D delta is -9. In my opinion I wouldn't take him until the second round. I don't think he makes sense for Portland, we already have an inefficient, high usage backup to Wesley Matthews, we don't need another. One final point. I have run hundreds and hundreds of players through my comp analysis. Their are some guards that always seem to never come up as a comp, but here are two in particular who show up at the bottom, Earl Boykins and Bo Kimble. Boykins is obvious because he is so small. Kimble never shows because of his insane numbers are LMU. This is the first time I have seen him show up as a comp. That isn't a good sign for Goodwin :-).
For the remainder of the SG I will just list their comps. Their stat projections, comp analysis, and physical data are included above.
#12 Vander Blue
Acie Law 95.5%
Alvin Williams 94.9%
Arron Afflalo 94.7%
Austin Rivers 96.8%
Beno Udrih 94.6%
Courtney Alexander 95.2%
Cuttino Mobley 94.4%
D.J. Strawberry 93.4%
Derek Anderson 94.7%
Dominic McGuire 93.9%
Evan Turner 95.0%
Gary Neal 94.7%
Greg Graham 94.7%
John Celestand 93.1%
Jordan Crawford 94.7%
Jrue Holiday 93.6%
Kelenna Azubuike 95.5%
Kevin Lynch 93.9%
Keyon Dooling 95.6%
Kim English 92.8%
Kyle Weaver 94.9%
Latrell Sprewell 94.7%
Malcolm Lee 95.6%
Marco Belinelli 93.4%
Michael Dickerson 94.8%
Nolan Smith 95.2%
Reece Gaines 95.7%
Roger Mason 93.4%
Steve Bardo 94.8%
Terrence Williams 93.2%
Tony Smith 95.1%
Wayne Ellington 94.4%
#13 - Lorenzo Brown
Acie Law 93.8%
Alvin Williams 94.0%
Derek Anderson 94.2%
Drew Barry 93.4%
Gary Payton 94.2%
Jason Hart 94.8%
Javaris Crittenton 95.0%
Jeff McInnis 93.5%
John Celestand 93.7%
John Salmons 95.4%
Kyle Weaver 96.0%
Manny Harris 91.3%
Marquis Daniels 93.6%
Ramon Sessions 95.3%
Steve Bardo 92.6%
Tate George 94.0%
Tyshawn Taylor 92.6%
#14 - Brandon Paul
Andre Owens 96.1%
Ben Uzoh 95.0%
Bracey Wright 96.6%
Charles Smith (UoNM) 94.2%
Charlie Bell 92.8%
Cuttino Mobley 94.7%
Eric Washington 93.8%
E'Twaun Moore 94.5%
Fred Hoiberg 93.5%
Gerald Fitch 94.9%
Goran Dragic 92.3%
Greg Buckner 91.7%
Jon Barry 93.6%
Keyon Dooling 96.0%
Lance Blanks 93.5%
Sam Jacobson 94.6%
Shannon Brown 94.8%
Tony Allen 94.2%
Vassilis Spanoulis 94.2%
Voshon Lenard 95.0%
#15 - Michael Snaer
Andre Owens 95.3%
Anthony Morrow 95.7%
Arron Afflalo 96.2%
Ben Uzoh 95.6%
Brandon Rush 96.4%
Cuttino Mobley 95.3%
Eric Washington 93.1%
Gary Neal 94.3%
John Celestand 96.3%
Jon Barry 94.2%
Keith Bogans 96.2%
Malik Hairston 95.0%
Matt Carroll 96.0%
Maurice Ager 96.5%
Rex Walters 93.7%
Shannon Brown 95.7%
Terrel Harris 94.8%
Trajan Langdon 96.3%
Vassilis Spanoulis 95.0%
Voshon Lenard 94.3%
Wayne Ellington 95.8%
#16 - Allen Crabbe
Allan Houston 95.5%
Antoine Wright 96.4%
Ben Uzoh 95.8%
Bracey Wright 96.3%
Bradley Beal 94.3%
Brandon Rush 96.7%
Dwayne Morton 95.0%
Gerald Henderson Jr. 95.3%
Jawad Williams 95.3%
Jeremy Lamb 96.2%
Josh Childress 94.1%
Malik Hairston 93.4%
Rasual Butler 93.7%
Rodney Carney 94.2%
Sonny Weems 94.6%
Tamar Slay 95.8%
Vincent Yarbrough 95.7%
Wayne Ellington 95.7%
Wesley Person 94.2%
Xavier Henry 94.5%
#17 - Erick Green
A.J. Guyton 94.8%
Acie Law 96.4%
Brandon Knight 94.1%
Chris Quinn 93.7%
Chris Smith 95.2%
Cory Higgins 96.2%
Devin Harris 91.4%
Eddie House 93.4%
Jason Terry 90.9%
Jerome Dyson 94.6%
John Celestand 94.4%
Jordan Crawford 93.6%
Juan Carlos Navarro 94.1%
Kemba Walker 95.9%
Khalid Reeves 94.5%
Kiwane Garris 95.4%
Marcus Thornton 92.9%
Negele Knight 93.9%
Nolan Smith 97.0%
Norris Cole 95.8%
Quincy Douby 94.1%
Rod Strickland 90.3%
Rodney Monroe 93.7%
Terrence Rencher 93.5%
Toney Douglas 95.4%
Tony Smith 92.9%
Tyshawn Taylor 94.3%
#18 - Alex Abrines
Cory Higgins 90.5%
D.J. Strawberry 90.9%
Darius Morris 92.4%
Elliot Williams 94.4%
J.J. Redick 86.7%
J.R. Giddens 91.3%
John Celestand 94.3%
Josh Childress 91.0%
Kevin Lynch 93.4%
Kim English 94.7%
Landry Fields 95.0%
Malcolm Lee 93.9%
Marco Belinelli 95.6%
Marshon Brooks 94.7%
Maurice Ager 94.9%
Nando De Colo 90.9%
Nolan Smith 94.1%
Sasha Vujacic 94.6%
#19 - Tim Hardaway Jr.
Anthony Roberson 93.7%
Antoine Wright 95.7%
Arron Afflalo 96.3%
Brandon Rush 96.1%
Courtney Alexander 93.6%
Evan Fournier 93.4%
Greivis Vasquez 91.8%
Jawad Williams 94.5%
Jeff Taylor 94.2%
Keith Bogans 94.9%
Kevin Lynch 93.7%
Malcolm Lee 96.6%
Malik Hairston 95.1%
Matt Carroll 95.2%
Reece Gaines 94.4%
Toby Bailey 95.7%
Travis Hansen 92.1%
Wayne Ellington 94.5%
Wesley Person 94.3%
#20 - Seth Curry
A.J. Guyton 95.4%
Anthony Roberson 95.7%
Chris Quinn 95.3%
Daniel Ewing 97.3%
Howard Eisley 94.2%
J.R. Bremer 97.4%
Jannero Pargo 92.9%
John Celestand 95.8%
Juan Carlos Navarro 96.5%
Kevin Pritchard 94.3%
Kiwane Garris 94.7%
Luther Head 94.8%
Quincy Douby 96.3%
Salim Stoudamire 96.4%
Trajan Langdon 95.9%
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