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Shabazz Muhammad Comparable Analysis REDUX

Over the past several weeks I have made a number of improvements and enhancements, and fixed a couple of problems where I was not handling data consistently. One change I have made relates to Freshman. Previously I included only the top 20 comps, while for all the other players I had 40 players over two seasons. I have changed Freshman to include the top 40 for that season, weighted identically to multiple season players. The results didn't make a significant change for most players, but it did improve the projection for Shabazz Muhammad so I felt I should publish these new results. I have also included a number of graphs, which I hope I can get to display properly, but if not copy the URL and you can view them in another tab.

Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint
Shabazz Muhammad 77 78.5 222 9.0% 9 10 84 105.25 29.5 37 10 10.99 3.32
Shabazz Muhammad percentile rank for the entire population
Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wing span Inches Reach in Inches No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint
Compared to all players 50% 51% 39% 69% 44% 60% 59% 62% 62% 64% 37% 71% 73%

http://imgur.com/3thhI4z

Name Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat < than Standard (as a % of BF) Reach > than standard (in inches) Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected
Shabazz Muhammad 14 0.80% 2.42 2.4 -0.66 0.04 0.45 -2
Name Weight percentile rank Body Fat percentile rank Reach percentile rank Wingspan percentile rank Vertical percentile rank Speed percentile rank Agility percentile rank Bench press percentile rank
Shabazz Muhammad 44% 51% 64% 72% 56% 75% 49% 38%

http://imgur.com/2ApdLQz

For a player of Shabazz Muhammad's height he is 14 pounds heavy, with small amount of extra body fat. He would be described as long as both his reach and wingspan are about 2.4" longer than average. Athletically he is pretty average, his leaping ability and speed is about average, but his agility is actually pretty good.

Shabazz Muhammad Comparable Analysis
Player Conference Average Statistical Similarity # of Comps Seasons
Michael Redd Big Ten 93.7% 3 1 time All-Star, Olympian
Luol Deng Atlantic Coast 92.4% 1 Very Good NBA starter
Brandon Rush Big-12 90.3% 2 Average NBA player
Chris Mills Pacific 12 92.5% 1 Average NBA player
Jim Jackson Big Ten 90.9% 1 Average NBA player
Desmond Mason Big-12 92.2% 1 Average NBA player
Gerald Henderson Jr. Atlantic Coast 94.4% 1 Average NBA player
Greg Buckner Atlantic Coast 93.8% 1 Average NBA player
Harrison Barnes Atlantic Coast 97.3% 1 Average NBA player
Jarvis Hayes Southeastern 94.2% 1 Average NBA player
Keith Bogans Southeastern 91.2% 1 Average NBA player
Lance Stephenson Big East 91.7% 1 Average NBA player
Quentin Richardson Big East 91.8% 2 Average NBA player
Quincy Pondexter Pacific 12 90.7% 1 Average NBA player
Tobias Harris Southeastern 93.8% 1 Average NBA player
Alonzo Gee Southeastern 93.5% 3 Below average, but not poor NBA player
Bill Walker Big-12 93.4% 1 Below average, but not poor NBA player
Casey Jacobsen Pacific 12 92.0% 1 Below average, but not poor NBA player
Chris Porter Southeastern 91.1% 2 Below average, but not poor NBA player
Rodney Carney Conference USA 93.2% 1 Below average, but not poor NBA player
Sam Young Big East 94.6% 1 Below average, but not poor NBA player
Doug Edwards Atlantic Coast 91.7% 1 Poor NBA player
E'Twaun Moore Big Ten 93.3% 1 Poor NBA player
Nick Young Pacific 12 95.0% 1 Poor NBA player
Yakhouba Diawara French 94.6% 2 Poor NBA player
Jawad Williams Atlantic Coast 92.9% 1 NBA Washout
Malik Hairston Pacific 12 92.9% 1 NBA Washout
Matt Freije Southeastern 94.2% 3 NBA Washout
Sam Jacobson Big Ten 95.1% 1 NBA Washout
NBA All Star or Better 2% Michael Redd
Very good NBA starter 8% Luol Deng
Above average to below average NBA starter or rotation player 48% Brandon Rush, Chris Mills, Jim Jackson, Desmond Mason, Gerald Henderson Jr., Greg Buckner, Quentin Richardson
Below average, lowish minute NBA player 24% Chris Porter, Rodney Carney, Doug Edwards, Yakhouba Diawara, Nick Young
NBA washout 18% Matt Freije, Jawad Williams, Malik Hairston, Sam Jacobson

http://imgur.com/PhG54jN

This is a clearly better set of comps than my first post. In my first post, I included only 20 comps for Freshman. For players with more than one season, I included 20 comps for 2 seasons. I have changed this to 40 comps for a players Freshman season, weighting the 20 best comps higher. This group of comps includes an All-Star and US Olympian Michael Redd, and a very good NBA starter in Luol Deng. Most of the remianing comps were included in the previous analysis.
One of the results from this analysis is you see that Shabaz Muhammd has very similar mix of comps to the overall population of NBA players. His group of comps is a little better, and his standard deviation is slightly less than the entire population of NBA players. Now to describe where Shabazz projects to end up, based upon this methodology. If Shabazz plays for 10 years, he will produce more than the median player over that time frame, about 5-10% more. That is the MEDIAN player over that time frame. During any given season on a minutes played basis, Shabazz would production would be below the MEAN, giving him a WS/48 rate of around 0.75 to 0.90.

Average Adjusted Stat Line for Target Player
Season Shooting Statistics Totals
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Shabazz Muhammad 1 201 484 41.5% 158 365 43.4% 43 120 35.8% 81 111 73.3% 49.1% 45.9%
Shabazz Muhammad 2 307 736 41.7% 229 535 42.6% 78 201 38.7% 129 164 78.6% 50.4% 47.0%
Shabazz Muhammad 3 359 860 41.8% 281 638 43.9% 80 222 35.7% 188 231 81.5% 51.0% 46.4%
3 Year Average 302 723 41.7% 232 534 43.3% 70 189 36.8% 141 178 78.5% 50.3% 46.5%
Season Accumulation Stats Totals
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
Shabazz Muhammad 1 67 127 194 62 37 14 59 1.07 108 527
Shabazz Muhammad 2 81 201 277 116 59 23 83 1.41 138 820
Shabazz Muhammad 3 85 199 286 114 64 19 90 1.27 150 989
3 Year Average 79 182 260 102 56 19 80 1.27 135 815
Season Shooting Statistics per 36 Minutes
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Shabazz Muhammad 1 5.34 12.89 41.5% 4.21 9.71 43.4% 1.14 3.18 35.8% 2.16 2.95 73.3% 49.1% 45.9%
Shabazz Muhammad 2 5.83 13.98 41.7% 4.33 10.13 42.6% 1.49 3.83 38.6% 2.44 3.11 78.5% 50.4% 47.0%
Shabazz Muhammad 3 5.89 14.09 41.8% 4.60 10.46 43.9% 1.30 3.63 35.7% 3.09 3.78 81.6% 51.0% 46.4%
3 Year Average 5.7 13.8 41.7% 4.4 10.2 43.3% 1.3 3.6 36.7% 2.6 3.3 78.5% 50.3% 46.5%
Season Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
Shabazz Muhammad 1 1.77 3.36 5.15 1.66 0.98 0.37 1.56 1.07 2.86 14.00
Shabazz Muhammad 2 1.55 3.83 5.26 2.21 1.12 0.44 1.57 1.40 2.61 15.56
Shabazz Muhammad 3 1.39 3.27 4.68 1.87 1.04 0.31 1.47 1.27 2.46 16.19
3 Year Average 1.5 3.5 5.0 1.9 1.1 0.4 1.5 1.27 2.6 15.4
Season Usage Stats
ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
Shabazz Muhammad 1 5.5% 10.5% 8.0% 7.5% 1.4% 0.8% 10.9% 19.0%
Shabazz Muhammad 2 4.8% 10.9% 7.9% 8.8% 1.6% 0.9% 10.0% 20.1%
Shabazz Muhammad 3 4.3% 10.3% 7.3% 8.4% 1.5% 0.7% 9.5% 20.4%
3 Year Average 4.7% 10.5% 7.7% 8.3% 1.5% 0.8% 10.0% 19.9%
Season Advanced Measurements
PER ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
Shabazz Muhammad 1 11.51 100.4 113.9 0.70 0.78 1.53 0.051
Shabazz Muhammad 2 13.43 104.0 113.8 1.74 1.20 3.07 0.071
Shabazz Muhammad 3 13.60 104.8 113.3 2.71 1.44 4.28 0.083
3 Year Average 13.02 103.4 113.6 5.2 3.4 8.88 0.071

Below are several graphs showing Shabazz Muhammad's production at UCLA. These are all on a 0 to 100% scale and it places Shabazz's perfomance onto a percentile scale, relative to the population of NBA players in college and in the 7 major European leagues.

http://imgur.com/gusVVGa

This graphs shows that Shabazz was in the 47% percentile for 2 point shooters, the 37% for 3 point shooters, the 71st percentile for free throw shooters, the 48th percentile in TS%, and the 57 percentile in eFG%. Overall he is a slightly below average shooter.

http://imgur.com/3yT0Gbb

http://imgur.com/lmxjn6S

Shabazz Muhammad is not a player that accumulates a lot of stats outside of points. He is very low in all of these.

In general when compared to all other players, Shabazz did not grade out particularly well as a Freshman. He scored highest in PER, but his points per possession was only in the 17th percentile, an extremely low performance. His assist to TO rate was pretty decent, and the is driven off his very low turnover rate.
The new group of comps for Shabazz, which is now the top 40 to his Freshman season rather than his top 20, have clearly bumped up his projected production. Michael Redd appeared twice, and Luol Deng appeared once. Both are very nice players, though Redd is more one dimensional. If Muhammad ended up near he level of either of these two his career would be very successful. the probability of that is very low, only 10%. It is far more likely hat he will end up in the range of Quentin Richardson or Brandon Rush on the top end to Alonzo Gee or Chris Porter on the bottom end.
Muhammad improved his PER projection from 12.1 to 13, and his WS/48 projection from .058 to .071. His Ortg improved from 99 to 103, but he DRtg is basically the same at 113. All indications are that Muhammad will struggle temendously on defense in the NBA. The final area where a manifest changed happened was in his shooting where his TS% increased from a very poor 48% to below average 50%. Muhammad will not be a good shooter, but his projected TS% is at least in the ballpark of acceptablility.
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