FanPost

Reggie Bullock Comparable Analysis

I haven't posted any of these for about a week because I have been trying to make some enhancements and improvements regarding how I publish the information and data. Reggie Bullock is the first attempt at this, so if you have opinions or comments please offer them. What I have is a quick and simple way to express what i have been trying to say, but it isn't the final approach, but rather an interim step to something better. I have included some graphs, and hopefully I can get them to show the way I want.

Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches No Step Vert Reach in Inches Max Vert Reach in inches No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint
Reggie Bullock 77.75 79 200 7.0% 8.5 9 80.75 102 133 138.5 31 36.5 11 11.33 3.31

Name Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat < than Standard (as a % of BF) Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Reach > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected
Reggie Bullock -9 0.82% -1.37 -1.49 2.01 0.05 0.12 1
Reggie Bullock is 6-5 3/4 in socks, 6-7 in shoes, and weighs 200 pounds. His weight is only 9 lbs below what is typical for a player of his height, and his body fat % is less than 1% above average. His height to weight is fairly well proportioned. His wingspan, and reach are both clearly below average for a player of his height. His vertical was 2" better than average, and his speed and agility was slightly slower than average. He would be described as an average athlete by NBA standards, who is not "long", but makes up for his l;ack of length with good leaping ability.

Comparable Analysis
Player Conference Average Statistical Similarity # of Comps Seasons
Danny Green Atlantic Coast 94.4% 1 Better than league average
Kyle Korver Missouri Valley 94.2% 1 Better than league average
Jared Dudley Atlantic Coast 90.9% 2 Better than league average
Brandon Rush Big-12 93.1% 3 League average
Chase Budinger Pacific 12 92.1% 1 League average
Gordon Hayward Atlantic 10 94.2% 1 League average
Jimmy Butler Big East 89.8% 1 League average
Jodie Meeks Southeastern 94.3% 1 League average
John Salmons Atlantic Coast 90.9% 1 League average
Keith Bogans Southeastern 92.5% 2 League average
Landry Fields Pacific 12 91.1% 1 League average
Luther Head Big Ten 93.5% 4 League average
Matt Carroll Big East 93.8% 5 League average
Greg Minor Big East 94.3% 1 Borderline league average
Jeremy Lamb Big East 93.1% 1 Low minute rookie
Wayne Ellington Atlantic Coast 92.1% 5 Borderline league average
Daequan Cook Big Ten 93.0% 1 Below average rotation player
Darius Miller Southeastern 92.9% 4 Below average rotation player
Luke Jackson Pacific 12 90.6% 2 Poor NBA player
NBA All Star or Better 0%
Very good NBA starter 1% Danny Green
Above average to below average NBA starter or rotation player 73% Kyle Korver, Jared Dudley, Brandon Rush, Chase Budinger, Gordon Hayward, Jimmy Butler, Luther Head, John Salmons, Landry Fields
Below average, lowish minute NBA player 21% Daequan Cook, Greg Minor, Wayne Ellington, Jeremy Lamb
NBA washout 5% Luke Jackson

http://imgur.com/S9NlUWT

http://imgur.com/taERXM3

The 2 graphs above are for Reggie Bullock, and also for Otto Porter. I have included Porter so you can see Bullock in the context of a player playing a similar position, who generally grades higher than Bullock. I have included the distribution for the specific player, and the also the average distribution of all the comps for the top 75 players. The values are not of any specific meaning, other than to say the higher the value the better, the higher the better the average comp. I have also included a Standard Deviation, which is a measurement of the shape of the bell curve. The closer this number is the tighter the bell curve, which isn't necessarily good or bad.
Reggie Bullock average comp value - 8.25
Otto Porter average comp value - 5.47
Average all comps for top 75 players - 6.47
Reggie Bullock Standard Deviation - 3.58
Otto Porter Standard Deviation - 6.77
Average Standard Deviation all comps for top 75 players - 7.20
Reggie Bullock's comps grade out as better than the average of the top 75 comps, and the standard deviation is far lower. Overall Reggie Bullock has a higher average comp score, with a lower standard deviation, than either Otto Porter or the average of all the comps for the top 75 players. There is greater risk with Otto Porter, but the potential payoff is higher. There is much less risk, but the payoff is lower with Reggie Bullock.
Reggie Bullock is a very interesting prospect. This is the first time you can see a players comps breakdown in a graphical format. I am comparing the quality of Regiie Bullocks comps to the average of all the comps for all the top 75 players. This is not the average player in the top 75, this is the breakdown of all the comps for the top 75 players. Reggie Bullock is clearly a low risk player, who has limited upside. He will not be a star, but he will be the kind of player who helps a team win games. Kyle Korver, Jared Dudley, Danny Green, Chase Budinger, Jimmy Butler, Gordon Hayward, John Salmons, Jodie Meeks etc are all solid NBA players, who are better than they seem, and they help teams win basketball games.
The players on Reggie Bullock's comp list offer a sense of validation for this process. All of these players are hokistically very similar to Reggie Bullock, but does that similarity mean you can use these players actual performance to predict another players performance? Look through the Basketball Reference pages for Kyle Korver, Jared Dudley, Danny Green, Chase Budinger, Jimmy Butler, Gordon Hayward, John Salmons, Jodie Meeks, Matt Carroll, and Luther Head. The degree of similarity of their NBA performance is surprisingly high and at least to me it is very obvious. These players in aggregate are very similar as NBA players.
Average Adjusted Stat Line for Target Player
Season Shooting Statistics Totals
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Reggie Bullock 1 203 467 43.4% 133 283 47.2% 70 184 37.8% 68 90 75.2% 53.4% 50.9%
Reggie Bullock 2 239 558 42.8% 140 311 45.1% 98 247 39.8% 91 122 74.5% 54.2% 51.6%
Reggie Bullock 3 223 518 43.1% 128 281 45.5% 96 237 40.3% 94 120 78.5% 55.3% 52.3%
3 Year Average 222 516 43.1% 134 292 45.9% 89 224 39.3% 85 111 76.0% 54.3% 51.6%
Season Accumulation Stats Totals
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
Reggie Bullock 1 59 201 266 106 47 12 70 1.53 114 544
Reggie Bullock 2 49 191 248 124 62 20 80 1.55 128 667
Reggie Bullock 3 44 176 226 103 52 16 64 1.61 122 637
3 Year Average 51 189 246 111 54 16 72 1.56 122 618
Season Shooting Statistics per 36 Minutes
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Reggie Bullock 1 4.52 10.40 43.4% 2.98 6.31 47.1% 1.55 4.10 37.8% 1.52 2.02 75.2% 53.4% 50.9%
Reggie Bullock 2 4.72 11.02 42.8% 2.78 6.15 45.2% 1.94 4.88 39.8% 1.80 2.41 74.4% 54.2% 51.6%
Reggie Bullock 3 4.77 11.08 43.0% 2.73 6.00 45.5% 2.05 5.07 40.3% 2.02 2.57 78.5% 55.3% 52.3%
3 Year Average 4.7 10.8 43.1% 2.8 6.2 45.9% 1.9 4.7 39.3% 1.8 2.3 76.0% 54.3% 51.6%
Season Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
Reggie Bullock 1 1.31 4.49 5.92 2.37 1.05 0.27 1.55 1.53 2.55 12.12
Reggie Bullock 2 0.97 3.78 4.91 2.45 1.23 0.40 1.58 1.55 2.53 13.18
Reggie Bullock 3 0.93 3.77 4.83 2.18 1.11 0.35 1.36 1.60 2.61 13.60
3 Year Average 1.1 4.0 5.2 2.3 1.1 0.3 1.5 1.56 2.6 13.0
Season Usage Stats
ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
Reggie Bullock 1 4.0% 13.7% 9.1% 10.0% 1.5% 0.6% 11.9% 15.3%
Reggie Bullock 2 3.4% 12.5% 8.1% 10.3% 1.7% 0.7% 10.8% 16.3%
Reggie Bullock 3 2.9% 12.0% 7.7% 9.6% 1.6% 0.7% 9.8% 16.1%
3 Year Average 3.4% 12.7% 8.3% 10.0% 1.6% 0.7% 10.8% 15.9%
Season Advanced Measurements
PER ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
Reggie Bullock 1 11.42 103.2 103.0 1.14 1.38 2.42 0.065
Reggie Bullock 2 12.48 105.0 100.9 1.62 2.15 3.68 0.092
Reggie Bullock 3 12.69 107.8 101.3 2.20 1.65 3.78 0.102
3 Year Average 12.21 105.4 101.7 5.0 5.2 9.88 0.087
Overall as a rookie, Reggie Bullock grades out to be as slightly below average, but projects to be a little above average for a SF/SG after 3 years. Reggie Bullock is the kind of player who looks better using metrics like WS/48 and Ortg/Drtg, but he does not grade as high in PER.
Offensively Reggie Bullock shines as a deep shooter, which is consistent with his "short length". He projects to take 44% of his shots as 3's, and projects to shoot at a 40% clip. As a result his TS% grades out at an impressive 54.3%. Bullock is the epitome of a highly efficient low usage guy, who has the benefit of shooting a lot from deep. He doesn't get to the FT line, with only 2.3 attemots per 36 minutes. He projects to be pretty average as a rebounder and passer, and projects to have a low turnover rate, resulting in a nice (for a SF/SG) 1.56 A/TO ratio. His is a productive, efficient, low profile player.
Defensively Reggie Bullock grades out very well, with an average DRtg of 101.7. He is an average rebounder, but perhaps a little better than average for a wing. He doesn't commit personal fouls, only 2.6 per 36 minutes. He doesn't generate "defensive stats" like steals and blocks. His comps are not known as good defenders, but in an aggregate measure of defensive stats while in college, Bullock outperformed his comps by a fairly large 6.7%. Just to contrast, while in college, in aggregate offensively Reggie Bullock, out performed his comps 0.37%, in other words his aggregate offensive statistics were about 1/3 of 1% better than his comps. In aggregate defensively his stats were 6.7% better than his comps.
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