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Dario Saric Comparable Analysis

Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches No Step Vert Reach in Inches Max Vert Reach in inches No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint
Dario Saric 80.85 82 223 82

Name Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat < than Standard (as a % of BF) Reach > than standard (in inches) Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected
Dario Saric -10 -2.83
Dario Saric is just barely 19, and there is limited physical data on him. He is 6-10 and 223 in shoes, so he is lighter than average by about 10 lbs. His wingspan is 82" (6-10), so he has shorter than average arms by 2.83"

Below are the top 20 Comp seasons to Dario Saric at age 17 and 18. The 4th column is only statistical similarity, and does not include any combine measurements.
Dario Saric Adriatic and Euro Cup age 18
Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity
Ansu Sesay 19 Southeastern 93.9%
Walter McCarty 19 Southeastern 93.0%
Ansu Sesay 18 Southeastern 93.3%
Robert Horry 18 Southeastern 93.3%
Chandler Parsons 20 Southeastern 92.9%
Victor Claver 21 Euro Cup 93.3%
Walter McCarty 20 Southeastern 92.3%
Walt Williams 18 Atlantic Coast 93.8%
Anderson Varejao 21 ACB 93.5%
Victor Claver 21 ACB 93.1%
Doug Smith 18 Southeastern 90.0%
Josh Grant 21 Pacific 12 92.7%
Marcus Morris 19 Big-12 92.9%
Ryan Stack 19 Southeastern 92.8%
LeRon Ellis 20 Big East 92.2%
Dominic McGuire 18 Pacific 12 92.2%
Donyell Marshall 18 Big East 91.8%
Andrew DeClercq 18 Southeastern 91.1%
Antoine Walker 18 Southeastern 92.5%
Britton Johnsen 23 Pacific 12 93.4%
Dario Saric Adriatic and Euro age 17
Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity
Anderson Varejao 20 Euro 94.2%
Victor Claver 19 Euro Cup 92.7%
Dominic McGuire 18 Pacific 12 93.7%
Matt Barnes 18 Pacific 12 93.8%
Ed O'Bannon 19 Pacific 12 92.8%
Victor Claver 19 ACB 90.4%
Ansu Sesay 18 Southeastern 90.2%
Ryan Stack 19 Southeastern 91.9%
DeMarre Carroll 18 Southeastern 92.4%
LeRon Ellis 18 Southeastern 90.7%
Walter McCarty 19 Southeastern 91.0%
Victor Claver 21 ACB 89.8%
Darren Morningstar 20 Big East 90.4%
Travis Knight 18 Big East 92.6%
LeRon Ellis 20 Big East 90.5%
Matt Barnes 19 Pacific 12 91.1%
Desmond Mason 19 Big-12 92.5%
Don Reid 19 Big East 91.3%
Victor Claver 21 Euro Cup 89.2%
Ryan Stack 20 Southeastern 90.6%
Very Best Case Comps 0%
Likely Best Case Robert Horry, Anderson Varejao, Antoine Walker 10%
Most Likely Walter McCarty, Walt Williams, Ryan Stack, Desmond Mason, Travis Knight, Matt Barnes, Chandler Parsons 43%
Likely Worst Case Victor Claver, Dominic McGuire 25%
Absolute Worst Case Ansu Sesay, LeRon Ellis 23%
Dario Saric is a very young prospect, but he has been on the scene for a while. He is 19 now, and his birthday was April 8, 1994, and he was playing professionally in the Adriatic league in 2010. I don't know the age rules, but I assume that upon turning 16 he turned pro. He has played his entire career with teams in the Adriatic league, which is one of the good to very good Eurpoean professional leagues. His Adriatic teams have also competed in Euroleague and Euro Cup. He has played a total of 41 games, and these 2 seasons were 15 and 16 games, where he averaged 19 minutes.
Based upon his comps Saric projects OK, but this distribution is clearly skewed to Most Likely and Likely Worst Case. In the better than worst case he has a nice mix of players that were a little below average to a little above average, and most all were solid rotation players, to stars on lottery teams. His likely worst case is Victor Claver, and he comps to the season's immediately before Claver was hurt and the year immediately following when Claver was hurt.

Average Adjusted Stat Line for Target Player
Season Shooting Statistics Totals
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Dario Saric 1 191 465 41.4% 166 382 43.8% 24 83 28.2% 81 129 63.1% 46.4% 43.9%
Dario Saric 2 250 606 41.4% 208 478 43.7% 42 128 31.9% 110 165 67.5% 47.9% 44.7%
Dario Saric 3 221 528 42.1% 187 425 44.0% 34 103 31.3% 115 174 66.0% 48.6% 45.2%
3 Year Average 224 540 41.6% 189 433 43.8% 34 107 30.7% 104 158 65.8% 47.7% 44.7%
Season Accumulation Stats Totals
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
Dario Saric 1 109 187 300 100 49 33 92 1.06 162 484
Dario Saric 2 118 252 337 149 73 43 121 1.24 201 651
Dario Saric 3 122 239 368 124 68 40 102 1.21 202 591
3 Year Average 117 230 338 127 65 39 106 1.18 191 584
Season Shooting Statistics per 36 Minutes
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Dario Saric 1 4.92 11.94 41.4% 4.29 9.83 43.9% 0.60 2.10 28.3% 2.09 3.32 63.1% 46.4% 43.9%
Dario Saric 2 4.80 11.63 41.4% 4.02 9.22 43.7% 0.78 2.40 32.0% 2.14 3.19 67.6% 47.9% 44.7%
Dario Saric 3 4.70 11.18 42.1% 4.00 9.05 44.0% 0.70 2.12 31.5% 2.44 3.70 66.1% 48.6% 45.2%
3 Year Average 4.8 11.6 41.6% 4.1 9.3 43.9% 0.7 2.2 30.8% 2.2 3.4 65.8% 47.7% 44.7%
Season Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
Dario Saric 1 2.87 4.95 7.93 2.53 1.29 0.87 2.37 1.05 4.33 12.47
Dario Saric 2 2.31 4.89 6.47 2.87 1.42 0.83 2.32 1.24 3.93 12.54
Dario Saric 3 2.59 5.10 7.85 2.61 1.45 0.85 2.14 1.21 4.30 12.53
3 Year Average 2.6 5.0 7.4 2.7 1.4 0.8 2.3 1.18 4.2 12.5
Season Usage Stats
ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
Dario Saric 1 8.5% 14.9% 11.8% 10.0% 1.7% 1.6% 15.5% 17.5%
Dario Saric 2 7.4% 15.8% 11.6% 11.6% 1.9% 1.6% 15.4% 18.0%
Dario Saric 3 8.2% 16.5% 12.5% 11.2% 2.1% 1.8% 14.9% 17.7%
3 Year Average 8.0% 15.8% 12.0% 11.0% 1.9% 1.7% 15.2% 17.7%
Season Advanced Measurements
PER ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
Dario Saric 1 10.90 94.6 107.0 0.12 1.15 1.27 0.043
Dario Saric 2 12.14 97.8 107.0 0.86 1.66 2.57 0.060
Dario Saric 3 13.01 100.0 103.3 1.32 2.16 3.46 0.089
3 Year Average 12.10 97.7 105.7 2.3 5.0 7.30 0.065
Dario Saric projects to be a below average NBA player for his first 3 years, but he projects to have nice steady improvement each and every year. If he maintains this rate of progression he would be a league average or better player by his third year. This rate of progression is not surprising, as Saric is very young. These projections are based upon a total of 41 games over 4 seasons, so there is a somewhat greater risk in really assessing who he is. If you view his bell curve it is clearly tiled to the lower end. with a limited upside, and some clear risk. Contrast that with Andre Roberson who is very low risk, but no great upside. Saric does not project to be a very good shooter, but he has also played his entire career from 16 onward in upper level professional leagues, so I would not expect his shooting to decline like a typical collegiate player.
Saric projects to be below average offensively, with an Ortg of 94.6 and 97.8 his first 2 seasons. By this third year he projects to be 100, so I would expect at his peak he would be in the 104-106 range. This is driven by his poor shooting, with a 3 year TS% of 47.7%. Let's face it, he truly was a boy amongst men in his 4 professional seasons, but in pretty much all facets of his game he projects to make steady improvement. Defensively he looks to be adequate early on his career, and then improve to above average. If he can push his DRtg to 99-101 range he will be a very nice player. He is clearly not worthy of being taken at #10, which is where NBADraft.net and HoopsHype have him pegged. He is worthy of a pick in the mid to late 20's. A couple of final points. Saric's comps for the 2010-11 season were on average 2 years older than Saric, and his comps for the 2011-12 season were on average 1-1/2 years older than Saric. That is one of the largest deltas of any player in the draft, but because Saric is so young his comps are older than Saric, and they are also young. I believe that is a different perspective on his potential ceiling, and his progression as a player. I believe this indicates he will struggle early on in his NBA career, but will make really nice progression, and even though his bell curve is shaded towards the lower end, I think this supports that the curve is a little overly harsh regarding Saric. My final point is regarding Shabazz Muhammad. Saric and Muhammad are in many ways alike. Both have been on the radar of NBA teams for several years, and have been seen as a potential rising star. Saric was playing professionally in a very good league at 16. In my opinion Saric is definitely a better prospect, and should be drafted higher. Saric and Muhammad grade out similar as a rookie, but Saric is far and away better defensively, and projects to make good improvement every season, while Muhammad projects to make only slight improvements in his game. Saric should be drafted ahead of Muhammad.
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