FanPost

Andre Roberson Comparable Analysis

I have done a ton of reports on projected first rounders, I though I would do one for a second rounder, since the Trailblazers have 3 second round picks.

Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches No Step Vert Reach in Inches Max Vert Reach in inches No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint
Andre Roberson 78.5 79.25 206 7.1% 8.75 9.5 83 105.25 134.5 141.75 30 36.5 10 11.36 3.34

Name Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat < than Standard (as a % of BF) Reach > than standard (in inches) Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected
Andre Roberson -19 1.22% 1.12 0.27 1.97 -0.06 0.04 0
Andre Roberson is 19 lbs. Lighter than average, with similar body fat. His reach is 1.22" longer, and his wingspan is 0.27" longer than average. His vertical was 1.97" better than average, and speed, agility, and bench press reps are exactly at the average. So in short he is above average in length, and average to a little above average in athleticism.

Below are the top 20 Comp seasons to Andre Roberson at age 18 and 19. The 4th column is only statistical similarity, and does not include any combine measurements.
Andre Roberson Junior season age 21
Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity
Thabo Sefolosha 20 Euro Cup 94.8%
Ryan Bowen 21 Big Ten 94.6%
Thabo Sefolosha 21 Italian 93.1%
Jerome Williams 21 Big East 93.6%
Jerome Williams 22 Big East 93.4%
Thabo Sefolosha 20 French 91.9%
James Posey 21 Atlantic 10 91.3%
George Lynch 22 Atlantic Coast 91.1%
Scott Burrell 20 Big East 91.7%
Robert Horry 20 Southeastern 92.9%
Linton Johnson 21 Conference USA 90.0%
James Posey 20 Atlantic 10 91.5%
James Singleton 23 Italian 94.5%
George Lynch 21 Atlantic Coast 90.6%
Kasib Powell 22 Greek 91.7%
Desmond Mason 20 Big-12 92.4%
Desmond Mason 21 Big-12 91.4%
Landry Fields 19 Pacific 12 92.1%
James Posey 22 Atlantic 10 90.0%
Quincy Lewis 20 Big Ten 89.6%
Andre Roberson Sophomore season age 20
Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity
Ryan Bowen 21 Big Ten 95.8%
Thabo Sefolosha 20 Euro Cup 92.6%
Jerome Williams 21 Big East 93.7%
Jerome Williams 22 Big East 93.0%
James Posey 20 Atlantic 10 92.2%
Desmond Mason 20 Big-12 92.3%
Roshown McLeod 19 Big East 91.5%
James Posey 21 Atlantic 10 91.2%
Thabo Sefolosha 20 French 90.5%
Anthony Bonner 18 Atlantic 10 92.6%
Thabo Sefolosha 21 Italian 90.5%
George Lynch 20 Atlantic Coast 90.5%
Landry Fields 19 Pacific 12 92.2%
Terrence Jones 20 Southeastern 94.6%
Ryan Bowen 22 Big Ten 91.6%
Tremaine Fowlkes 21 Mountain West 93.0%
Robert Horry 20 Southeastern 92.7%
LaPhonso Ellis 19 Big East 94.0%
Anthony Bonner 19 Atlantic 10 90.9%
James Johnson 21 Atlantic Coast 92.0%
Very Best Case Comps 0%
Likely Best Case James Posey, Robert Horry, LaPhonso Ellis 24%
Most Likely Thabo Sefolosha, Jerome Williams, Desmond Mason, Ryan Bowen, Landry Fields, George Lynch, 64%
Likely Worst Case Linton Johnson, Roshawn McLeod 10%
Absolute Worst Case 3%
I have done a bunch of first round picks, so I decided to do a player who seems destined for the second round, Andre Roberson. One thing that absolutely jumped out at me is how tight the bell curve is. There is not a big upside with Andre Roberson, his best case is James Posey, Robert Horry, and LaPhonso Ellis. At the same time there is an 88% probability that he will be end up like one of his most likely and best case. Every one of those players was a very solid rotation player or better, for a lot of years. In my opinion he will play in the NBA for close to a decade, with a WS of league average or better. He is dropping because he doesn't seem to knock your socks off, but good teams always have 2-3 of these type guys on their roster. There is almost no risk he will wash out, and very little risk he will be a below average player. He is absolutely a first round talent.

Average Adjusted Stat Line for Target Player
Season Shooting Statistics Totals
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Andre Roberson 1 197 432 45.6% 165 343 48.1% 32 90 36.0% 81 120 67.2% 51.9% 49.3%
Andre Roberson 2 223 494 45.0% 192 399 48.2% 29 96 30.7% 105 149 70.9% 51.2% 48.0%
Andre Roberson 3 209 486 42.9% 181 394 45.9% 28 93 29.8% 104 146 71.6% 49.4% 45.7%
3 Year Average 210 472 44.5% 180 380 47.4% 30 93 32.1% 97 139 70.0% 50.8% 47.6%
Season Accumulation Stats Totals
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
Andre Roberson 1 106 258 370 99 69 32 83 1.19 152 507
Andre Roberson 2 104 262 352 125 80 35 92 1.36 161 578
Andre Roberson 3 111 289 406 109 76 36 82 1.33 156 549
3 Year Average 107 270 376 111 75 34 86 1.30 156 546
Season Shooting Statistics per 36 Minutes
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Andre Roberson 1 4.39 9.62 45.6% 3.67 7.63 48.1% 0.72 1.99 36.0% 1.80 2.68 67.2% 51.9% 49.4%
Andre Roberson 2 4.43 9.84 45.0% 3.83 7.93 48.2% 0.59 1.90 30.6% 2.09 2.96 70.9% 51.2% 48.0%
Andre Roberson 3 4.27 9.95 42.9% 3.70 8.06 45.9% 0.57 1.89 29.9% 2.14 2.99 71.5% 49.4% 45.7%
3 Year Average 4.4 9.8 44.5% 3.7 7.9 47.4% 0.6 1.9 32.1% 2.0 2.9 70.0% 50.8% 47.7%
Season Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
Andre Roberson 1 2.36 5.75 8.24 2.19 1.53 0.71 1.84 1.20 3.38 11.30
Andre Roberson 2 2.06 5.22 7.01 2.49 1.60 0.70 1.84 1.36 3.20 11.50
Andre Roberson 3 2.28 5.90 8.32 2.23 1.55 0.74 1.68 1.33 3.18 11.22
3 Year Average 2.2 5.6 7.8 2.3 1.6 0.7 1.8 1.30 3.2 11.3
Season Usage Stats
ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
Andre Roberson 1 7.1% 17.0% 12.3% 8.7% 2.1% 1.3% 13.3% 15.7%
Andre Roberson 2 6.9% 17.8% 12.5% 9.9% 2.0% 1.3% 13.8% 16.4%
Andre Roberson 3 7.3% 19.0% 13.3% 9.3% 2.2% 1.5% 12.7% 16.2%
3 Year Average 7.1% 17.9% 12.7% 9.3% 2.1% 1.4% 13.3% 16.1%
Season Advanced Measurements
PER ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
Andre Roberson 1 12.15 100.8 89.0 1.44 2.05 3.30 0.087
Andre Roberson 2 12.88 101.0 89.7 1.50 2.44 3.69 0.093
Andre Roberson 3 13.13 101.2 90.1 1.37 2.15 3.28 0.091
3 Year Average 12.74 101.0 89.6 4.3 6.6 10.27 0.090
Andre Roberson will be essentially a league average player his first 3 years. His WS/48 average 0.090, and his Ortg/Dtrg delta is 11.4 pts/100 possessions. His PER is low, because he is a low usage guy. His defensive rating is essentially 90 which is incredible. Look at his comps, and he has great defenders all through the list (James Posey, Thabo Sefolosha, Jerome Williams, Robert Horry, LaPhonso Ellis). I do not have a college DRtg for players, so I use other methodologies as a proxy to relate players for this measurement in college, and basically it says Roberson produced better defensive than all of these guys in college. He should be fine rebounder for someone of his size, who will get steals, and WILL NOT committ many fouls. He will not be a great offesnive player (see ORtg and PER). He is actually a pretty decent passer considering his role, and he doesn't turn the ball over very much. He is not a great shooter, but his usage rate his low. The Portland Trailblazer have 3 second round picks. Draft Express has him at 67, and NBADraft.net has him at 40. He is a first round talent, and if he slips to Portland at 39 then they should be all over him like a rat to a cheeto!!! You heard it here first.
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