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Michael Carter-Williams Comparable Analysis

Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches No Step Vert Reach in Inches Max Vert Reach in inches No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint
Michael Carter-Williams 77 78 184 4.4% 7.5 8.5 79.5 101 132.5 142 31.5 41 10.68 3.22

Name Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat < than Standard (as a % of BF) Reach > than standard (in inches) Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected
Michael Carter-Williams -22 -0.51% -1.18 -1.58 2.96 0.09 0.59
Michael-Carter Williams is 22 lbs. less than average, so he has a slight build. He is well below average in reach and wingspan, but is an explosive leaper. His No Step vertical is nearly 3" more than average, and max vertical is 10" more than his NSV. I haven't calculated the average Max Vertical, but my suspicion is that he would be as much as 6" greater than average. In total he can raech to almost 12' He has average speed and very good agility.

Below are the top 20 Comp seasons to Michael Carter-Williams at age 18 and 19. The 4th column is only statistical similarity, and does not include any combine measurements.
Michael Carter-Williams Sophomore season age 21
Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity
D.J. Strawberry 20 Atlantic Coast 92.8%
Alvin Williams 21 Big East 93.0%
Marquis Daniels 21 Southeastern 93.2%
Greivis Vasquez 21 Atlantic Coast 91.2%
Corey Brewer 19 Southeastern 92.0%
Corey Brewer 20 Southeastern 92.0%
Javaris Crittenton 19 Atlantic Coast 93.4%
Brent Barry 22 Pacific 12 91.8%
Drew Barry 22 Atlantic Coast 93.3%
Alvin Williams 20 Big East 91.1%
Terrence Williams 20 Big East 91.6%
Iman Shumpert 18 Atlantic Coast 93.9%
Greivis Vasquez 20 Atlantic Coast 91.5%
Tate George 21 Big East 92.8%
Kyle Weaver 21 Pacific 12 93.0%
D.J. Strawberry 21 Atlantic Coast 91.6%
James White 21 Big East 90.6%
Brandon Roy 19 Pacific 12 90.0%
Kyle Weaver 22 Pacific 12 93.5%
Iman Shumpert 19 Atlantic Coast 92.3%
Michael Carter-Williams Freshman season age 20
Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity
Brent Barry 20 Pacific 12 92.0%
Corey Brewer 18 Southeastern 90.5%
Tarence Kinsey 20 Southeastern 89.0%
Tyshawn Taylor 20 Big-12 91.5%
Steve Bardo 18 Big Ten 92.2%
Tarence Kinsey 19 Southeastern 88.7%
Alvin Williams 20 Big East 90.2%
Jamie Watson 18 Southeastern 92.0%
James White 19 Southeastern 91.3%
D.J. Strawberry 19 Atlantic Coast 90.2%
D.J. Strawberry 18 Atlantic Coast 89.9%
Jeff McInnis 19 Atlantic Coast 92.9%
Steve Bardo 19 Big Ten 90.5%
Alvin Williams 19 Big East 89.8%
Jrue Holiday 18 Pacific 12 89.6%
Steve Bardo 20 Big Ten 90.5%
Jimmy Oliver 19 Big Ten 93.3%
Landry Fields 18 Pacific 12 92.1%
Greivis Vasquez 20 Atlantic Coast 88.0%
Darius Miller 18 Southeastern 91.9%
Very Best Case Comps Brandon Roy 3%
Likely Best Case Brent Barry, Jrue Holiday 8%
Most Likely Greivis Vazquez, Alvin Williams, Jeff McInnis, Corey Brewer, Iman Shumpert, Marquis Daniels 38%
Likely Worst Case Tate George, Steve Bardo, Darius Miller, Tarence Kinsey, Tyshawn Taylor, Drew Barry 40%
Absolute Worst Case D.J. Strawberry 13%
Michael Carter-Williams has 3 really good best case comps, in Brandon Roy, Brent Barry, and Jrue Holiday. Unfortunately there is only an 11% probability that will get to that level. He most likely case comps are pretty run of the mill, all were starters at one point in their career, but none would be considered much above league average at their peak. The likely worst case comps is a long list of guys who barely made it 3 years, and the best of the lot was Tate George. Considering that Michael Carter-Williams has a 53% probability of being in his worst case group, then somewhere between Tate George, Corey Brewer, and Alvin Williams is what one should expect.

Average Adjusted Stat Line for Target Player
Season Shooting Statistics Totals
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Michael Carter-Williams 1 170 403 42.3% 136 307 44.7% 33 97 34.5% 81 105 76.7% 50.3% 46.5%
Michael Carter-Williams 2 191 449 42.5% 156 346 45.2% 34 103 33.4% 92 120 76.5% 50.2% 46.3%
Michael Carter-Williams 3 328 766 42.9% 267 589 45.3% 61 176 34.8% 149 198 75.1% 50.4% 46.9%
3 Year Average 244 573 42.6% 198 440 45.1% 45 133 34.3% 114 149 76.0% 50.3% 46.6%
Season Accumulation Stats Totals
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
Michael Carter-Williams 1 42 131 173 176 67 13 84 2.10 118 453
Michael Carter-Williams 2 40 132 164 235 63 12 103 2.28 115 507
Michael Carter-Williams 3 55 198 252 402 90 18 144 2.82 162 866
3 Year Average 47 160 205 291 76 15 115 2.46 136 647
Season Shooting Statistics per 36 Minutes
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Michael Carter-Williams 1 4.42 10.47 42.3% 3.55 7.97 44.7% 0.87 2.52 34.5% 2.09 2.73 76.7% 50.3% 46.5%
Michael Carter-Williams 2 4.85 11.43 42.5% 3.97 8.81 45.1% 0.87 2.61 33.4% 2.34 3.05 76.6% 50.2% 46.3%
Michael Carter-Williams 3 5.56 12.95 42.9% 4.52 9.98 45.3% 1.03 2.98 34.9% 2.52 3.35 75.1% 50.4% 46.9%
3 Year Average 5.0 11.8 42.6% 4.1 9.1 45.1% 0.9 2.7 34.4% 2.4 3.1 76.0% 50.3% 46.6%
Season Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
Michael Carter-Williams 1 1.11 3.43 4.50 4.56 1.74 0.33 2.17 2.10 3.06 11.80
Michael Carter-Williams 2 1.01 3.35 4.17 5.96 1.60 0.29 2.61 2.29 2.92 12.90
Michael Carter-Williams 3 0.93 3.35 4.27 6.80 1.52 0.30 2.44 2.82 2.74 14.65
3 Year Average 1.0 3.4 4.3 5.9 1.6 0.3 2.4 2.47 2.9 13.3
Season Usage Stats
ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
Michael Carter-Williams 1 3.4% 10.6% 6.9% 20.0% 2.4% 0.7% 15.5% 17.5%
Michael Carter-Williams 2 3.1% 10.3% 6.7% 27.6% 2.4% 0.6% 15.1% 18.8%
Michael Carter-Williams 3 3.0% 10.6% 6.7% 30.3% 2.2% 0.7% 13.9% 21.6%
3 Year Average 3.1% 10.6% 6.8% 26.6% 2.3% 0.7% 14.7% 19.6%
Season Advanced Measurements
PER ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
Michael Carter-Williams 1 11.89 100.9 104.5 0.66 1.20 1.82 0.054
Michael Carter-Williams 2 13.66 103.3 101.0 1.41 1.40 2.76 0.077
Michael Carter-Williams 3 15.45 105.2 103.9 2.62 1.32 3.99 0.082
3 Year Average 13.94 103.4 103.2 4.7 3.9 8.57 0.073
For his first 3 years in the league Michael Carter-Williams projects as a decidedly below average NBA player. In his 3rd year he comes in at average to a little below average. His 3rd year per of 15.45 is slightly above average, and is driven a high usage rate (21.6%) and assist rate (26.6%), as he is a below average shooter (50.3% TS%). All of that leads to a pedestrian 105.2 Ortg. Defensively he grades out at 103.2 which is above average for a PG. He looks like a better than average rebounder for his position, and will get a fair number of steals. Overall I would rate him a higher risk prospect, but he should turn out to be an OK NBA player. He is clearly not a lottery pick talent, and should slide into the early 20's. He is no question a better prospect than Shabazz Muhammad.
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