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C.J. McCollum Comparable Analysis

Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches No Step Vert Reach in Inches Max Vert Reach in inches No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint
C.J. McCollum 74.5 75.5 197 8.6% 8 9.5 78.5 96.5 129.25 135 32 38.5 11.02 3.32

Name Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat < than Standard (as a % of BF) Reach > than standard (in inches) Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected
C.J. McCollum 8 1.13% -2.08 0.06 2.03 -0.06 0.29
C.J. McCollum' weight to height indicates he weighs a little more than average. His reach is 2.08" less than average, but his wingspan is average for a player of his size. He is a good leaper, vertical is 2" more than average, of average speed, and a little above average agility. In aggregate he would not be described as long, but is a good athlete.

Below are the top 20 Comp seasons to C.J. McCollum at age 18 and 19. The 4th column is only statistical similarity, and does not include any combine measurements.
C.J. McCollum Senior season age 21
Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity
Damian Lillard 21 Big Sky 94.3%
Rodney Stuckey 19 Big Sky 94.2%
Willie Green 21 Horizon League 94.1%
Orlando Johnson 21 Big West 95.2%
Stephen Curry 19 Southern 92.7%
Courtney Lee 22 Sun Belt 94.5%
Randy Foye 22 Big East 93.0%
Khalid Reeves 21 Pacific 12 95.6%
Jordan Crawford 21 Atlantic 10 94.8%
Jeremy Lin 20 Ivy Group 89.4%
Damian Lillard 19 Big Sky 91.8%
Charles Smith (UoNM) 21 Mountain West 92.2%
Charles Smith (UoNM) 20 Mountain West 93.1%
Ronnie Price 21 Great West 94.0%
Gary Neal 22 Colonial AA 94.3%
Stephen Curry 18 Southern 92.5%
Marcus Thornton 21 Southeastern 94.5%
Lucious Harris 22 Big West 94.7%
Rodney Stuckey 20 Big Sky 91.7%
Orlando Johnson 22 Big West 93.5%
C.J. McCollum Junior season age 20
Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity
Jeremy Lin 20 Ivy Group 92.4%
Rodney Stuckey 20 Big Sky 92.7%
Damian Lillard 21 Big Sky 91.9%
Rodney Stuckey 19 Big Sky 92.8%
Charles Smith (UoNM) 20 Mountain West 92.4%
Orlando Johnson 21 Big West 91.5%
Randy Foye 22 Big East 92.8%
Courtney Lee 20 Sun Belt 92.7%
Jeremy Lin 21 Ivy Group 94.3%
Damian Lillard 19 Big Sky 92.3%
Courtney Lee 22 Sun Belt 93.2%
Willie Green 21 Horizon League 93.7%
Randy Foye 21 Big East 91.4%
Emanual Davis 22 Mid-Eastern Athletic 91.6%
Emanual Davis 20 Mid-Eastern Athletic 91.4%
Rodney Buford 20 Missouri Valley 95.2%
Iman Shumpert 20 Atlantic Coast 91.8%
Charles Smith (UoNM) 21 Mountain West 91.3%
Tierre Brown 21 Southland 90.9%
Norris Cole 22 Horizon League 94.7%
Very Best Case Comps Stephan Curry 5%
Likely Best Case Damian Lillard, Jeremy Lin, 18%
Most Likely Rodney Stuckey, Iman Shumpert, Courtney Lee, Randy Foye, Marcus Thornton 48%
Likely Worst Case Charles Smith, Norris Cole, Kahlid Reeves, Jordan Crawford, Ronnie Price 28%
Absolute Worst Case Tierre Brown 3%
C.J. McCollum has a really nice set of comps, and is clearly a lower risk, but solid return type player. He has a 70%+ probability of being no worse than Rodney Stuckey, Courtney Lee, Randy Foye, Marcus Thornton. Every one of his comps played 3 yers (I am assuming Lillard and Orlando Johnson make it 3 years), and his only absolute worst case Tierre Brown played 3, albiet unproductive, years.
C.J. McCollum is a perfect illustration of one of the enhancements I made since I posted at mid-season regarding Damian Lillard. If you look at McCollum's comps you will note that only 4 players came from Big 6 conference schools (Khalid Reeves, Marcus Thornton, Randy Foye, and Iman Shumpert). I have included conference as a discreet variable in the model. I want to place each players performance into the context they played in. Damian Lillard was a big time scorer in college, but he played in the Big Sky, so how does that translate into the NBA? I absolutely DID NOT want to find an algorithm that would adjust any players stats up or down to account for different contexts. What I wanted to do was place every player into their appropriate context, and use their comps as a proxy for that player, and use the eventual performance of their comps to project what the target player would do in the NBA. Now if you look through the comps the very best statistical comp is Khalid Reeves, and that to me is instructive. I have only 4 bits of physycal data for Reeves to compare to McCollum, so physycal similarity doesn't explain why he is a comp. They played in widely divergent conferences. For Reeves to be a comp he must be extremely similar statistically, which he is. So in summary, I have tried to protect the integrity of the comp process, and I try always to avoid using algorithms to adjust for the difference in context. Find the best comps, and then allow the comps to describe the player, and allow the results that come from that to speak for themselves.
The players that most directly jump out at me is this analysis are Steph Curry, Damian Lillard, Jeremy Lin, Rodney Stuckey, and Gary Neal. All of these players were tremendous college players and they all played in small conferences, and all have had very good to great success in the NBA.

Average Adjusted Stat Line for Target Player
Season Shooting Statistics Totals
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
C.J. McCollum 1 359 817 43.8% 266 591 45.0% 93 227 40.7% 146 179 81.9% 53.0% 49.5%
C.J. McCollum 2 320 723 44.1% 256 562 45.5% 63 161 38.9% 144 175 82.4% 52.4% 48.4%
C.J. McCollum 3 342 810 42.2% 273 623 43.8% 70 187 37.3% 149 185 80.8% 50.4% 46.5%
3 Year Average 341 785 43.4% 265 593 44.8% 76 192 39.0% 146 180 81.7% 51.9% 48.1%
Season Accumulation Stats Totals
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
C.J. McCollum 1 40 180 221 257 71 15 147 1.75 152 957
C.J. McCollum 2 46 167 212 224 69 12 121 1.86 149 846
C.J. McCollum 3 42 168 210 220 71 18 119 1.85 153 904
3 Year Average 43 172 214 234 70 15 129 1.82 151 904
Season Shooting Statistics per 36 Minutes
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
C.J. McCollum 1 6.70 15.28 43.8% 4.96 11.04 45.0% 1.73 4.26 40.7% 2.75 3.36 81.8% 53.0% 49.5%
C.J. McCollum 2 6.36 14.40 44.1% 5.10 11.19 45.5% 1.25 3.20 39.0% 2.87 3.49 82.3% 52.4% 48.4%
C.J. McCollum 3 6.45 15.27 42.2% 5.15 11.73 43.8% 1.32 3.53 37.3% 2.80 3.47 80.8% 50.4% 46.5%
3 Year Average 6.5 15.0 43.4% 5.1 11.3 44.8% 1.4 3.7 39.0% 2.8 3.4 81.6% 51.9% 48.1%
Season Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
C.J. McCollum 1 0.75 3.37 4.12 4.81 1.34 0.28 2.74 1.75 2.86 17.87
C.J. McCollum 2 0.91 3.33 4.24 4.46 1.38 0.24 2.40 1.86 2.98 16.83
C.J. McCollum 3 0.80 3.15 3.95 4.15 1.32 0.33 2.25 1.85 2.89 17.05
3 Year Average 0.8 3.3 4.1 4.5 1.3 0.3 2.5 1.82 2.9 17.3
Season Usage Stats
ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
C.J. McCollum 1 2.5% 10.5% 6.5% 20.1% 1.9% 0.6% 14.8% 22.7%
C.J. McCollum 2 2.7% 10.9% 6.7% 19.5% 1.9% 0.5% 13.5% 22.5%
C.J. McCollum 3 2.6% 10.3% 6.3% 18.8% 1.9% 0.7% 12.4% 23.0%
3 Year Average 2.6% 10.6% 6.5% 19.5% 1.9% 0.6% 13.6% 22.7%
Season Advanced Measurements
PER ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
C.J. McCollum 1 14.85 104.2 101.5 2.34 1.39 3.65 0.080
C.J. McCollum 2 15.07 104.2 103.6 1.91 1.41 3.24 0.077
C.J. McCollum 3 14.86 103.1 103.5 1.41 1.42 2.76 0.070
3 Year Average 14.92 103.8 102.9 5.7 4.2 9.65 0.076
Overall for his first 3 years C.J. McCollum projects to be league average in PER, Ortg/Drtg delta, and a little below an average NBA player according to Win Shares. Compared to Damian Lillard, McCollum projects a lower PER, WS/48, and a better Ortg/DRtg delta. This stat line though is quite similar to Damian Lillard's projected stat line. Lillard exceeded his stat line most specifically because he truely went to the best situation for himself, and then he performed at his rate stat porjections, while increasing his usage rate, and somewhat less so his assist rate. In many ways you could say the same thing about Steph Curry. On the other hand Jeremy Lin was forced to take a couple of years to find his ideal situation and when he did, he took off. If McCollum went to the right situation for himself he could have a fabulous rookie year, but I doubt that will happen, because it doesn't happen all that often.
C.J. McCollum projects to be a better defender than Damian Lillard, and in fact for a PG he projects to be quite good. Offensively though he is not the same player as Lillard, with an Ortg of 104. He is not the shooter that Lillard or Curry are, but he is an OK shooter. As a passer McCollum projects to be below average for a PG, so he is clearly a shoot first PG, which is consistent with his usage rate of 22.7% which is very high at this stage.
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