Ed. Note: Out of appreciation to ZiggyTheBeagle for all his hard work on these in-depth statistical comparisons, we're turning over the main page to his posts this weekend. Dig in and enjoy as much as we have!
Name | Height Inches no Shoes | Height Inches w/shoes | Weight | Body Fat | Hand Length | Hand Width | Wingspan Inches | Reach in Inches | No Step Vert Reach in Inches | Max Vert Reach in inches | No Step Vert | Max Vert | Bench | Agility | Sprint |
Nerlens Noel | 82.25 | 83.75 | 216 | 4.2% | 9.5 | 10 | 88 | 110 |
Name | Weight > than standard (in lbs) | Body Fat < than Standard (as a % of BF) | Reach > than standard (in inches) | Wingspan > than standard (in inches) | Vertical > than standard (in inches) | Speed > than standard (in sec) | Agility > than standard (in sec) | # additional bench reps than expected |
Nerlens Noel | -22 | -2.49% | 0.41 | 1.36 | ||||
Limited physical data for Noel, because he was hurt and didn't participate in the testing. Overall he is obviously very thin, with an appropriate amount of body fat for his weight. He is not exceptionally long, as both reach and wingspan are just a little longer than average. Considering how good of a shot blocker he was in college, I would be very comfortable in stating that he would be a good leaper, and even more so he would be very agile. | ||||||||
Below are the top 20 Comp seasons to Nerlens Noel at age 19. The 4th column is only statistical similarity. | |||
Nerlens Noel | Freshman season Age 18 | ||
Player | Age | Conference | Statistical Similarity |
Anthony Davis | 18 | Southeastern | 92.4% |
Calvin Booth | 19 | Big Ten | 92.1% |
Solomon Jones | 21 | Big East | 90.1% |
Lorenzen Wright | 19 | Conference USA | 91.2% |
Marcus Camby | 19 | Atlantic 10 | 90.8% |
Justin Williams | 21 | Mountain West | 92.0% |
Derrick Coleman | 19 | Big East | 92.7% |
Justin Williams | 20 | Mountain West | 90.6% |
Tony Battie | 19 | Big-12 | 91.6% |
Solomon Jones | 20 | Big East | 88.1% |
Derrick Coleman | 20 | Big East | 92.1% |
Rasheed Wallace | 19 | Atlantic Coast | 90.8% |
Duane Causwell | 20 | Atlantic 10 | 93.7% |
Dale Davis | 18 | Atlantic Coast | 89.8% |
Hasheem Thabeet | 20 | Big East | 92.7% |
Travis Knight | 20 | Big East | 91.3% |
Elden Campbell | 18 | Atlantic Coast | 87.1% |
Hasheem Thabeet | 21 | Big East | 93.0% |
Anthony Bonner | 18 | Atlantic 10 | 92.1% |
Kenyon Martin | 20 | Big East | 94.2% |
Very Best Case Comps | Derrick Coleman, Rasheed Wallace, Anthony Davis | 20% | |
Likely Best Case | Kenyon Martin, Dale Davis, Marcus Camby | 20% | |
Most Likely | Elden Campbell, Tony Battie, Duane Causwell | 20% | |
Likely Worst Case | Solomon Jones, Travis Knight, Hasheem Thabeet | 25% | |
Absolute Worst Case | Justin Williams | 10% | |
Nerlens Noel has a generally very impressive set of conps. Very best case he has Anthony Davis, Rahseed Wallace, Derrick Coleman, likely best base Dale Davis, Marcus Camby, and even a likely case of Elden Campbell, and Tony Battie. Yes he does have a 35% chance he truns out like Thabeet, Travis Knight, and a very small probability he is a washout. He has a 60% probability of being good to very good to potentially a star. | |||
Average Adjusted Stat Line for Target Player | |||||||||||||||
Season | Shooting Statistics Totals | ||||||||||||||
FG | FGA | FG% | 2P | 2PA | 2P% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | TS% | eFG% | ||
Nerlens Noel | 1 | 249 | 506 | 49.2% | 245 | 491 | 49.9% | 4 | 15 | 26.7% | 126 | 197 | 64.0% | 52.5% | 49.6% |
Nerlens Noel | 2 | 283 | 569 | 49.7% | 277 | 544 | 50.9% | 7 | 25 | 28.0% | 149 | 233 | 64.0% | 53.4% | 50.4% |
Nerlens Noel | 3 | 306 | 624 | 49.0% | 300 | 595 | 50.4% | 6 | 29 | 20.7% | 184 | 276 | 66.7% | 53.2% | 49.5% |
3 Year Average | 281 | 569 | 49.3% | 275 | 546 | 50.4% | 6 | 23 | 25.1% | 154 | 237 | 64.9% | 53.1% | 49.9% | |
Season | Accumulation Stats Totals | ||||||||||||||
ORB | DRB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | A/TO | PF | PTS | ||||||
Nerlens Noel | 1 | 148 | 288 | 435 | 77 | 61 | 108 | 104 | 0.74 | 187 | 628 | ||||
Nerlens Noel | 2 | 167 | 321 | 466 | 105 | 64 | 125 | 127 | 0.83 | 220 | 724 | ||||
Nerlens Noel | 3 | 165 | 354 | 514 | 129 | 74 | 107 | 124 | 1.04 | 220 | 802 | ||||
3 Year Average | 161 | 323 | 474 | 105 | 67 | 114 | 119 | 0.88 | 210 | 723 | |||||
Season | Shooting Statistics per 36 Minutes | ||||||||||||||
FG | FGA | FG% | 2P | 2PA | 2P% | 3P | 3PA | 3P% | FT | FTA | FT% | TS% | eFG% | ||
Nerlens Noel | 1 | 5.37 | 10.92 | 49.2% | 5.29 | 10.59 | 50.0% | 0.09 | 0.32 | 28.1% | 2.72 | 4.25 | 64.0% | 52.5% | 49.6% |
Nerlens Noel | 2 | 5.17 | 10.39 | 49.8% | 5.06 | 9.93 | 51.0% | 0.13 | 0.46 | 28.3% | 2.72 | 4.25 | 64.0% | 53.4% | 50.4% |
Nerlens Noel | 3 | 5.64 | 11.50 | 49.0% | 5.53 | 10.96 | 50.5% | 0.11 | 0.53 | 20.8% | 3.39 | 5.09 | 66.6% | 53.2% | 49.5% |
3 Year Average | 5.4 | 10.9 | 49.3% | 5.3 | 10.5 | 50.5% | 0.1 | 0.4 | 25.6% | 3.0 | 4.5 | 64.9% | 53.1% | 49.9% | |
Season | Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes | ||||||||||||||
ORB | DRB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | TOV | A/TO | PF | PTS | ||||||
Nerlens Noel | 1 | 3.19 | 6.21 | 9.39 | 1.66 | 1.32 | 2.33 | 2.24 | 0.74 | 4.03 | 13.55 | ||||
Nerlens Noel | 2 | 3.05 | 5.86 | 8.51 | 1.92 | 1.17 | 2.28 | 2.32 | 0.83 | 4.02 | 13.22 | ||||
Nerlens Noel | 3 | 3.04 | 6.52 | 9.47 | 2.38 | 1.36 | 1.97 | 2.28 | 1.04 | 4.05 | 14.78 | ||||
3 Year Average | 3.1 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 0.88 | 4.0 | 13.9 | |||||
Season | Usage Stats | ||||||||||||||
ORB% | DRB% | TRB% | AST% | STL% | BLK% | TOV% | USG% | ||||||||
Nerlens Noel | 1 | 9.6% | 18.9% | 14.1% | 7.0% | 1.8% | 4.5% | 13.8% | 18.1% | ||||||
Nerlens Noel | 2 | 9.1% | 18.3% | 13.5% | 8.3% | 1.8% | 4.5% | 14.4% | 18.0% | ||||||
Nerlens Noel | 3 | 9.4% | 19.9% | 14.5% | 9.6% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 13.3% | 19.2% | ||||||
3 Year Average | 9.4% | 19.0% | 14.0% | 8.4% | 1.8% | 4.2% | 13.8% | 18.5% | |||||||
Season | Advanced Measurements | ||||||||||||||
PER | ORtg | DRtg | OWS | DWS | WS | WS/48 | |||||||||
Nerlens Noel | 1 | 16.39 | 98.9 | 91.8 | 1.29 | 2.37 | 3.53 | 0.104 | |||||||
Nerlens Noel | 2 | 16.67 | 98.0 | 88.5 | 1.69 | 2.96 | 4.28 | 0.102 | |||||||
Nerlens Noel | 3 | 18.09 | 101.3 | 85.8 | 2.66 | 3.88 | 6.07 | 0.140 | |||||||
3 Year Average | 17.08 | 99.4 | 88.5 | 5.6 | 9.2 | 13.88 | 0.116 | ||||||||
Starting from his rookie year Nerlens Noel would be a little better than league average. For a 19 year old rookie that is very impressive. By his third year he clearly well above average, 0.140 WS, 18.1 PER, and a ORtg over DRtg delta of 11. Let there be no doubt, Nerlens Noel is the clear and away best player in this draft. Considering he would be 21 in his 3rd year, by year 23-25 he will be an all-star. Offensively Noel grades out as generally poor (ORtg of 99.4), but grades out as a potential defensive player of the year at some point (DRtg of 85.8 in year 3). Noel is a fairly average shooter, which is consistent with his a-little-above-average length. He is not a great rebounder, not as good as Anthony Davis, Derrick Coleman, or Dale Davis, similar to Tony Battie, and better than Rasheed Wallace and Kenyon Martin. As a shot blocker he is better than Wallace, Coleman, Battie, Dale Davis, and Martin, but not as good as Anthony Davis. At the FT line, compared to this group, he has an average %, but he gets to the line more often than Martin, Wallace, Dale Davis, and Tony Battie, about as often as AD, and not as often as Derrick Coleman. Jay Bilas among others have said he is not a consensus #1 pick, but I disagree. He is absolutely the best player, by a large margin and should easily be the #1 pick. | |||||||||||||||