FanPost

Nerlens Noel Comparables Analysis

Mark Zerof-US PRESSWIRE

Ed. Note: Out of appreciation to ZiggyTheBeagle for all his hard work on these in-depth statistical comparisons, we're turning over the main page to his posts this weekend. Dig in and enjoy as much as we have!


Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches No Step Vert Reach in Inches Max Vert Reach in inches No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint
Nerlens Noel 82.25 83.75 216 4.2% 9.5 10 88 110





Name Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat < than Standard (as a % of BF) Reach > than standard (in inches) Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected
Nerlens Noel -22 -2.49% 0.41 1.36
Limited physical data for Noel, because he was hurt and didn't participate in the testing. Overall he is obviously very thin, with an appropriate amount of body fat for his weight. He is not exceptionally long, as both reach and wingspan are just a little longer than average. Considering how good of a shot blocker he was in college, I would be very comfortable in stating that he would be a good leaper, and even more so he would be very agile.

Below are the top 20 Comp seasons to Nerlens Noel at age 19. The 4th column is only statistical similarity.
Nerlens Noel Freshman season Age 18
Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity
Anthony Davis 18 Southeastern 92.4%
Calvin Booth 19 Big Ten 92.1%
Solomon Jones 21 Big East 90.1%
Lorenzen Wright 19 Conference USA 91.2%
Marcus Camby 19 Atlantic 10 90.8%
Justin Williams 21 Mountain West 92.0%
Derrick Coleman 19 Big East 92.7%
Justin Williams 20 Mountain West 90.6%
Tony Battie 19 Big-12 91.6%
Solomon Jones 20 Big East 88.1%
Derrick Coleman 20 Big East 92.1%
Rasheed Wallace 19 Atlantic Coast 90.8%
Duane Causwell 20 Atlantic 10 93.7%
Dale Davis 18 Atlantic Coast 89.8%
Hasheem Thabeet 20 Big East 92.7%
Travis Knight 20 Big East 91.3%
Elden Campbell 18 Atlantic Coast 87.1%
Hasheem Thabeet 21 Big East 93.0%
Anthony Bonner 18 Atlantic 10 92.1%
Kenyon Martin 20 Big East 94.2%
Very Best Case Comps Derrick Coleman, Rasheed Wallace, Anthony Davis 20%
Likely Best Case Kenyon Martin, Dale Davis, Marcus Camby 20%
Most Likely Elden Campbell, Tony Battie, Duane Causwell 20%
Likely Worst Case Solomon Jones, Travis Knight, Hasheem Thabeet 25%
Absolute Worst Case Justin Williams 10%
Nerlens Noel has a generally very impressive set of conps. Very best case he has Anthony Davis, Rahseed Wallace, Derrick Coleman, likely best base Dale Davis, Marcus Camby, and even a likely case of Elden Campbell, and Tony Battie. Yes he does have a 35% chance he truns out like Thabeet, Travis Knight, and a very small probability he is a washout. He has a 60% probability of being good to very good to potentially a star.

Average Adjusted Stat Line for Target Player
Season Shooting Statistics Totals
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Nerlens Noel 1 249 506 49.2% 245 491 49.9% 4 15 26.7% 126 197 64.0% 52.5% 49.6%
Nerlens Noel 2 283 569 49.7% 277 544 50.9% 7 25 28.0% 149 233 64.0% 53.4% 50.4%
Nerlens Noel 3 306 624 49.0% 300 595 50.4% 6 29 20.7% 184 276 66.7% 53.2% 49.5%
3 Year Average 281 569 49.3% 275 546 50.4% 6 23 25.1% 154 237 64.9% 53.1% 49.9%
Season Accumulation Stats Totals
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
Nerlens Noel 1 148 288 435 77 61 108 104 0.74 187 628
Nerlens Noel 2 167 321 466 105 64 125 127 0.83 220 724
Nerlens Noel 3 165 354 514 129 74 107 124 1.04 220 802
3 Year Average 161 323 474 105 67 114 119 0.88 210 723
Season Shooting Statistics per 36 Minutes
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Nerlens Noel 1 5.37 10.92 49.2% 5.29 10.59 50.0% 0.09 0.32 28.1% 2.72 4.25 64.0% 52.5% 49.6%
Nerlens Noel 2 5.17 10.39 49.8% 5.06 9.93 51.0% 0.13 0.46 28.3% 2.72 4.25 64.0% 53.4% 50.4%
Nerlens Noel 3 5.64 11.50 49.0% 5.53 10.96 50.5% 0.11 0.53 20.8% 3.39 5.09 66.6% 53.2% 49.5%
3 Year Average 5.4 10.9 49.3% 5.3 10.5 50.5% 0.1 0.4 25.6% 3.0 4.5 64.9% 53.1% 49.9%
Season Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
Nerlens Noel 1 3.19 6.21 9.39 1.66 1.32 2.33 2.24 0.74 4.03 13.55
Nerlens Noel 2 3.05 5.86 8.51 1.92 1.17 2.28 2.32 0.83 4.02 13.22
Nerlens Noel 3 3.04 6.52 9.47 2.38 1.36 1.97 2.28 1.04 4.05 14.78
3 Year Average 3.1 6.2 9.1 2.0 1.3 2.2 2.3 0.88 4.0 13.9
Season Usage Stats
ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
Nerlens Noel 1 9.6% 18.9% 14.1% 7.0% 1.8% 4.5% 13.8% 18.1%
Nerlens Noel 2 9.1% 18.3% 13.5% 8.3% 1.8% 4.5% 14.4% 18.0%
Nerlens Noel 3 9.4% 19.9% 14.5% 9.6% 1.9% 3.7% 13.3% 19.2%
3 Year Average 9.4% 19.0% 14.0% 8.4% 1.8% 4.2% 13.8% 18.5%
Season Advanced Measurements
PER ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
Nerlens Noel 1 16.39 98.9 91.8 1.29 2.37 3.53 0.104
Nerlens Noel 2 16.67 98.0 88.5 1.69 2.96 4.28 0.102
Nerlens Noel 3 18.09 101.3 85.8 2.66 3.88 6.07 0.140
3 Year Average 17.08 99.4 88.5 5.6 9.2 13.88 0.116
Starting from his rookie year Nerlens Noel would be a little better than league average. For a 19 year old rookie that is very impressive. By his third year he clearly well above average, 0.140 WS, 18.1 PER, and a ORtg over DRtg delta of 11. Let there be no doubt, Nerlens Noel is the clear and away best player in this draft. Considering he would be 21 in his 3rd year, by year 23-25 he will be an all-star. Offensively Noel grades out as generally poor (ORtg of 99.4), but grades out as a potential defensive player of the year at some point (DRtg of 85.8 in year 3). Noel is a fairly average shooter, which is consistent with his a-little-above-average length. He is not a great rebounder, not as good as Anthony Davis, Derrick Coleman, or Dale Davis, similar to Tony Battie, and better than Rasheed Wallace and Kenyon Martin. As a shot blocker he is better than Wallace, Coleman, Battie, Dale Davis, and Martin, but not as good as Anthony Davis. At the FT line, compared to this group, he has an average %, but he gets to the line more often than Martin, Wallace, Dale Davis, and Tony Battie, about as often as AD, and not as often as Derrick Coleman. Jay Bilas among others have said he is not a consensus #1 pick, but I disagree. He is absolutely the best player, by a large margin and should easily be the #1 pick.
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