FanPost

Otto Porter Comparable Analysis

Rob Carr

Ed. note: bumped to front page

Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches No Step Vert Reach in Inches Max Vert Reach in inches No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint
Otto Porter 79.75 80.75 198 6.7% 8.75 9.25 85.5 106 132.5 142 27 36 11.25 3.4

Name Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat < than Standard (as a % of BF) Reach > than standard (in inches) Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected
Otto Porter -31 2.07% -0.1 1.21 -1.87 -0.02 0.54
Otto Porter is light for someone of his size, 31 pounds liker than average, so he has a slight build. His reach is average, and his wingspan is slightly longer than average. His vertical is below average, his speed is average, and his agility is good to very good. He is a little longer than average and a little more athletic than average.

Below are the top 20 Comp seasons to Otto Porter at age 20. The 4th column is only statistical similarity, and does not include any combine measurements.
Otto Porter Sophomore Season age 19
Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity
Nicolas Batum 19 French 92.5%
Nicolas Batum 23 French 94.5%
Danilo Gallinari 19 Italian 93.8%
James Posey 22 Atlantic 10 93.5%
Wesley Johnson 22 Big East 95.8%
Devin Ebanks 20 Big-12 91.9%
Landry Fields 19 Pacific 12 94.0%
Mike Miller 19 Southeastern 95.2%
Evan Turner 20 Big Ten 92.6%
Khris Middleton 19 Southeastern 93.4%
Devin Ebanks 19 Big-12 91.3%
Dermarr Johnson 19 Big East 91.2%
Kyle Singler 20 Atlantic Coast 94.2%
Bobby Simmons 19 Big East 92.6%
Bobby Simmons 20 Big East 92.5%
Dominique Jones 19 Big East 94.0%
Will Barton 21 Conference USA 95.7%
Bradley Beal 18 Southeastern 94.9%
Terrence Jones 20 Southeastern 92.2%
James Johnson 21 Atlantic Coast 92.0%
Otto Porter Freshman season age 18
Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity
Devin Ebanks 19 Big-12 94.9%
Al-Farouq Aminu 18 Atlantic Coast 92.4%
Nicolas Batum 19 French 93.0%
Dermarr Johnson 19 Big East 92.3%
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 18 Southeastern 95.0%
Devin Ebanks 20 Big-12 93.4%
Landry Fields 19 Pacific 12 95.0%
Sam Young 20 Big East 94.0%
Nicolas Batum 18 French 90.8%
Jeremy Lamb 18 Big East 93.7%
Terrence Jones 20 Southeastern 93.6%
James Posey 20 Atlantic 10 91.6%
Draymond Green 19 Big Ten 93.1%
Mark Hendrickson 18 Pacific 12 93.6%
Mark Hendrickson 19 Pacific 12 94.6%
Damion James 19 Big-12 92.9%
Mike Scott 20 Atlantic Coast 93.8%
Jonas Jerebko 21 Italian 94.7%
Malik Sealy 18 Big East 92.6%
Wesley Johnson 19 Big-12 93.3%
Very Best Case Comps 0%
Likely Best Case Nicolas Batum, Danilo Gallinari, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Mike Miller 20%
Most Likely James Posey, Bobby Simmons, Jonas Jerebko, Landry Fields, Al-Farouq Aminu 48%
Likely Worst Case Devin Ebanks, Sam Young, Mark Hendrickson, Wesley Johnson 30%
Absolute Worst Case Damion James 3%
Otto Porter has no star player comps, and only one comp, Damion James, was a washout. He is a low risk, medium reward type draft pick. Clearly his best overall comp is Nicholas Batum, with 3 of Nicolas' Euro season showing as good comp seasons. I think the Mike Miller and Danilo Gallinari comps are quite revealing, as are James Posey and Bobby Simmons. In short he has a 70% probability of being like his likely best case, or most likely comps, and a 30% probability he will like Wesley Johnson, or Sam Young.

Average Adjusted Stat Line for Target Player
Season Shooting Statistics Totals
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Otto Porter 1 213 487 43.7% 152 325 47.0% 61 163 37.3% 86 111 77.9% 53.3% 50.0%
Otto Porter 2 209 480 43.6% 152 320 47.9% 57 161 34.8% 91 120 75.7% 52.7% 49.4%
Otto Porter 3 262 617 42.6% 201 438 46.1% 61 179 34.0% 135 168 80.4% 51.8% 47.5%
3 Year Average 230 532 43.3% 170 365 47.0% 60 168 35.3% 105 135 78.1% 52.6% 48.9%
Season Accumulation Stats Totals
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
Otto Porter 1 72 212 281 101 55 30 69 1.47 136 574
Otto Porter 2 56 206 262 105 54 33 75 1.40 133 566
Otto Porter 3 79 251 327 126 62 32 77 1.62 161 720
3 Year Average 70 224 292 111 57 32 74 1.50 144 625
Season Shooting Statistics per 36 Minutes
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Otto Porter 1 4.59 10.50 43.8% 3.29 7.00 47.0% 1.31 3.50 37.2% 1.86 2.39 78.0% 53.2% 50.0%
Otto Porter 2 4.73 10.86 43.6% 3.46 7.24 47.9% 1.27 3.63 34.8% 2.05 2.71 75.5% 52.7% 49.4%
Otto Porter 3 5.08 11.94 42.6% 3.90 8.48 46.1% 1.18 3.46 34.0% 2.60 3.24 80.3% 51.8% 47.5%
3 Year Average 4.8 11.1 43.3% 3.6 7.6 47.0% 1.3 3.5 35.3% 2.2 2.8 78.1% 52.5% 48.9%
Season Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
Otto Porter 1 1.55 4.57 6.07 2.17 1.20 0.66 1.48 1.48 2.95 12.38
Otto Porter 2 1.27 4.67 5.96 2.37 1.24 0.74 1.70 1.40 3.02 12.79
Otto Porter 3 1.55 4.87 6.35 2.43 1.20 0.63 1.50 1.61 3.13 13.94
3 Year Average 1.5 4.7 6.1 2.3 1.2 0.7 1.6 1.50 3.0 13.1
Season Usage Stats
ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
Otto Porter 1 4.9% 13.9% 9.2% 9.0% 1.7% 1.4% 10.9% 17.3%
Otto Porter 2 4.0% 14.8% 9.2% 10.3% 1.7% 1.5% 11.0% 17.8%
Otto Porter 3 4.8% 15.4% 9.8% 10.6% 1.7% 1.3% 9.9% 19.4%
3 Year Average 4.6% 14.7% 9.4% 9.9% 1.7% 1.4% 10.5% 18.2%
Season Advanced Measurements
PER ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
Otto Porter 1 12.73 105.1 102.3 1.45 1.37 2.83 0.077
Otto Porter 2 13.33 103.7 99.5 1.34 1.60 2.92 0.085
Otto Porter 3 14.03 105.1 100.8 2.01 1.73 3.69 0.084
3 Year Average 13.39 104.7 100.9 4.8 4.7 9.44 0.082
After 3 years Otto Porter will be a little below a league average player, but he will make steady progress in each of his first 3 years. By his 4th year he should become a league average or better player. Offensively he will be a little below average, with an aggregate ORtg of 104.7, but defensively he will be very good to excellent, with an aggregate DRtg of 101. As a shooter Porter looks like an adequate shooter, with a 52.5% TS%, which is consistent with his slightly longer wingspan.
He projects to be a better rebounder than Batum and Gallinari, similar to Miller, and not as good as Posey or Simmons.
He projects to be a better passer than Gallinari and Posey, similar to Simmons, and worse that Batum and Miller.
He projects to generate more steals and blocks than Miller, Gallinari, and Simmons, the same as Posey, and fewer than Batum.
In turnovers he projects to have fewer than Batum, Miller, Posey, and Simmons, but more than Gallinari.
In personal fouls he projects to have fewer than Posey and Simmons, but more than Miller, Batum, and Gallinari
So in short he projects to be a better defender Miller, Gallinari, and Simmons similar to Batum, not as good as Posey. Offensively he projects to be similar to Bobby Simmons and James Posey, but not as efficient as Batum, Miller, or Gallinari. I believe he will be a solid NBA player for a decade or more, but he will not be a star.
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