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Kelly Olynyk Comparables Analysis

Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches No Step Vert Reach in Inches Max Vert Reach in inches No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint
Kelly Olynyk 83 84 234 6.7% 8.5 10 82 108 132.5 137.5 24.5 29.5 11.42 3.59

Name Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat < than Standard (as a % of BF) Reach > than standard (in inches) Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected
Kelly Olynyk -5 -1.68% -1.91 -4.9 -1.15 -0.06 0.75
Kelly Olynyk is well proportioned, as his weight to height and body fat to weight are consistent with players of his size. His wingspan is nearly 5" shorter than average, and reach is nearly 2" shorter than average, so would not be described as a long player. His vertical is a little below average, and his speed is average, but his agility is excellent.

Below are the top 20 Comp seasons to Kelly Olynyk at age 20. The 4th column is only statistical similarity, and does not include any combine measurements.
Kelly Olynyk Age 21
Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity
Matt Fish 22 Colonial AA 94.6%
Christian Laettner 21 Atlantic Coast 94.7%
Nick Fazekas 21 Mountain West 94.2%
Christian Laettner 22 Atlantic Coast 93.9%
Raef LaFrentz 20 Big-12 92.5%
Cherokee Parks 22 Atlantic Coast 92.0%
Pau Gasol 21 Euro 93.7%
Paul Davis 21 Big Ten 93.7%
Terry Mills 22 Big Ten 93.3%
Nick Fazekas 20 Mountain West 92.3%
Cherokee Parks 21 Atlantic Coast 91.0%
Alaa Abdelnaby 21 Atlantic Coast 94.4%
Nick Fazekas 19 Mountain West 91.3%
Anthony Avent 21 Big East 92.5%
Don MacLean 22 Pacific 12 91.5%
Christian Laettner 20 Atlantic Coast 93.1%
Alec Kessler 22 Southeastern 92.3%
Tony Battie 20 Big-12 93.0%
P.J. Brown 21 Western Athletic 93.4%
Matt Geiger 22 Atlantic Coast 94.0%
Kelly Olynyk Age 19
Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity
Eric Riley 21 Big Ten 94.6%
Alec Kessler 20 Southeastern 92.6%
Walter McCarty 19 Southeastern 93.5%
Matt Fish 20 Colonial AA 91.1%
Jan Vesely 20 Adriatic 94.0%
Nikoloz Tskitishvili 19 Italian 92.3%
Cherokee Parks 19 Atlantic Coast 92.9%
Pete Chilcutt 20 Atlantic Coast 92.5%
Zarko Cabarkapa 21 Adriatic 94.2%
Eric Riley 22 Big Ten 93.3%
Nikoloz Tskitishvili 25 Italian 93.0%
Francisco Elson 22 Pacific 12 92.1%
Matt Fish 21 Colonial AA 91.5%
Donatas Motiejunas 19 Italian 91.6%
Mark Pope 22 Southeastern 92.5%
Jan Vesely 20 Euro 92.3%
David Andersen 21 Euro 92.2%
Jan Vesely 21 Adriatic 93.3%
Anderson Varejao 20 ACB/Euro 94.2%
Walter McCarty 20 Southeastern 90.5%
Very Best Case Comps Pau Gasol 3%
Likely Best Case Christian Laettner, PJ Brown, Anderson Varejao 20%
Most Likely Terry Mills, Don MacLean, Walter McCarty 28%
Likely Worst Case David Andersen, Nikoloz Tskitishvili, Alec Kessler, Cherokee Parks 35%
Absolute Worst Case Matt Fish, Nick Fazekas 15%
Kelly Olynyk made a significant leap from age 19 to age 21. At 19 his good case / bad case was 40/60, but after his RS Jr season it improved to 60/40. There is a very small probability that he will end up a star like Pau Gasol, but his likely best case, and most likely include some very good players, like Laettner, Geiger, PJ Brown, Anderson Varejao, Tony Battie, & Raef LaFrentz. There is some risk that he will a below average big guy, but a low risk he will wash out.
One thing that jumps out quickly with Olynyk is the number of European big men he comps to. That list includes; Gasol, Tskitishnili, Varejao, Montiejunas, Cabarkapa, Andersen, and Vesely. I believe it is also instructive to point out that his only European comp to his age 21 season was Paul Gasol at age 21. As a 19 year old he had 9 European seasons he comped to. The significant improvement he made from 19 to 21 indicates that he went from a player who would probably spend his career playing Europe, to being a player with an NBA future.

Average Adjusted Stat Line for Target Player
Season Shooting Statistics Totals
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Kelly Olynyk 1 320 639 48.8% 314 611 50.4% 5 27 17.9% 180 231 74.8% 53.7% 49.5%
Kelly Olynyk 2 323 642 49.5% 313 607 50.9% 10 35 28.3% 190 246 75.5% 55.0% 50.5%
Kelly Olynyk 3 333 653 50.3% 324 623 51.4% 9 29 28.7% 194 251 75.2% 55.3% 51.0%
3 Year Average 326 645 49.6% 317 614 50.9% 8 30 25.2% 188 243 75.2% 54.7% 50.4%
Season Accumulation Stats Totals
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
Kelly Olynyk 1 134 286 420 104 45 60 132 0.78 184 824
Kelly Olynyk 2 142 293 446 134 50 69 123 1.08 214 846
Kelly Olynyk 3 148 306 456 110 47 70 123 0.89 231 867
3 Year Average 142 295 442 116 47 67 126 0.92 211 847
Season Shooting Statistics per 36 Minutes
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Kelly Olynyk 1 6.76 13.73 48.8% 6.59 12.96 50.4% 0.17 0.77 18.6% 3.63 4.74 74.7% 53.7% 49.5%
Kelly Olynyk 2 6.38 12.82 49.5% 6.13 11.99 50.9% 0.24 0.83 28.2% 3.66 4.80 75.4% 55.0% 50.5%
Kelly Olynyk 3 6.19 12.24 50.3% 6.02 11.66 51.4% 0.16 0.58 29.1% 3.55 4.66 75.2% 55.3% 51.0%
3 Year Average 6.4 12.9 49.6% 6.2 12.2 50.9% 0.2 0.7 25.6% 3.6 4.7 75.1% 54.7% 50.4%
Season Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
Kelly Olynyk 1 2.98 6.25 9.25 2.23 1.00 1.26 2.86 0.77 4.22 17.31
Kelly Olynyk 2 2.89 5.84 8.95 2.67 1.07 1.35 2.46 1.08 4.47 16.65
Kelly Olynyk 3 2.92 6.01 8.97 2.06 0.93 1.30 2.31 0.89 4.56 16.08
3 Year Average 2.9 6.0 9.1 2.3 1.0 1.3 2.5 0.92 4.4 16.7
Season Usage Stats
ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
Kelly Olynyk 1 9.3% 19.8% 14.6% 9.5% 1.4% 2.3% 17.2% 20.0%
Kelly Olynyk 2 9.1% 18.2% 13.7% 10.8% 1.4% 2.4% 15.1% 19.2%
Kelly Olynyk 3 9.0% 18.8% 13.9% 9.1% 1.3% 2.5% 15.1% 19.0%
3 Year Average 9.1% 18.9% 14.1% 9.8% 1.3% 2.4% 15.7% 19.3%
Season Advanced Measurements
PER ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
Kelly Olynyk 1 14.26 105.8 105.7 1.34 2.09 2.97 0.071
Kelly Olynyk 2 15.08 110.4 106.3 2.73 1.90 4.11 0.103
Kelly Olynyk 3 15.02 110.9 108.8 2.73 2.24 4.63 0.105
3 Year Average 14.81 109.2 107.0 6.8 6.2 11.71 0.094
Kelly Olynyk's aggregate first 3 years are league average. In his first year he projects to be below average (0.71 WS and 14.26 PER). By his second and third year he is clearly a league average player. His overall Ortg is 109.2 which is very good, so he will be an above average offensive player. His TS% is a very solid 54.7%, which is consistent with this lack of length. Of this years class of big guys, Olynyk projects to be the best overall shooter, and he does this with a fairly high usage rate. Defensively he projects a DRtg of 107.0 which is poor for an NBA big, and is consistent with his short length. His rebounding rate per 36 minutes of 9.1 is very low, lowest of this years crop of bigs. He is a little better than average as a passer for a big guy.
Olynyk has holes in his game, but he also has some very impressive skills. He made a huge jump from age 19 to 21. The success or failure of a very large % of players drafted relates to the situation they get drafted into, and then the quality of that team's player development program. Damian Lillard got drafted into a ideal situation, and Portland had a nice player development program for him, and he exploded. Many other players are not so lucky. For a player like Olynyk if he goes to the right situation he will be a successful NBA player. In college he was very fortunate to go to a program with a long track record of good player development. Olynyk does not fit in Portland as he very similar to Meyers Leonard. Personally I would love to see Kelly Olynyk after a few years of working with a coach like Rick Adelman. Olynyk has good offensive skills, and I believe has the potential to be a nice passing big man. There are not many coaches who are able to bring out a big man's passing ability better than Rick Adelman. Overall I would rate Olynyk as a late lottery selection, but "SITUATION WILL MAKE A BIG IMPACT ON HIS EVENTUAL SUCCESS".
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