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Rudy Gobert Comparable Analysis

Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches No Step Vert Reach in Inches Max Vert Reach in inches No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint
Rudy Gobert 84.5 86 238 4.4% 9.75 10 93.25 115 140 144 25 29 12.85 3.57

Name Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat < than Standard (as a % of BF) Reach > than standard (in inches) Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected
Rudy Gobert -16 -1.20% 2.84 4.95 -2.29 0.02 -0.52
Rudy Gobert weighs 16 pounds less than average, and his body fat is 1.2% lower than the average. His reach and wingspan are very long, his wingspan is nearly 5 inches longer than average. He is a poor leaper, and not very agile, with average speed. He is thus very long, but but below average athletically.

Below are the top 20 Comp seasons to Rudy Gobert at age 20. The 4th column is only statistical similarity, and does not include any combine measurements.
Rudy Gobert Age 20
Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity
Jim McIlvaine 19 Big East 92.4%
Jim McIlvaine 18 Big East 93.5%
Cherokee Parks 20 Atlantic Coast 93.8%
Dikembe Mutombo 22 Big East 92.0%
Matt Geiger 22 Atlantic Coast 93.0%
Luke Schenscher 21 Atlantic Coast 94.3%
Eric Riley 22 Big Ten 93.7%
Jim McIlvaine 20 Big East 90.4%
Primoz Brezec 21 Euro 95.0%
Mikki Moore 20 Big Ten 94.6%
Jake Voskuhl 22 Big East 94.3%
Brad Daugherty 18 Atlantic Coast 93.1%
Travis Knight 20 Big East 91.3%
Patrick Ewing (Sr) 19 Big East 91.2%
Jason Collins 20 Pacific 12 93.9%
Jonas Valanciunas 19 Euro Cup 92.5%
Semih Erden 21 Euro 92.0%
Nikola Pekovic 20 Adriatic 92.3%
Earl Barron 20 Conference USA 91.2%
Duane Causwell 20 Atlantic 10 89.8%
Rudy Gobert Age 19
Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity
Dikembe Mutombo 22 Big East 95.2%
Will Perdue 20 Southeastern 92.8%
Eric Riley 19 Big Ten 93.4%
Eric Riley 22 Big Ten 93.2%
Larry Sanders 19 Atlantic 10 91.2%
Jim McIlvaine 18 Big East 90.2%
Roy Rogers 21 Southeastern 93.3%
Francisco Elson 22 Pacific 12 92.4%
Roy Rogers 20 Southeastern 92.8%
Michael Olowokandi 20 Big West 92.5%
Loren Woods 18 Atlantic Coast 90.5%
Duane Causwell 19 Atlantic 10 90.8%
Eric Riley 21 Big Ten 91.3%
Cole Aldrich 19 Big-12 92.5%
DeAndre Jordan 19 Southeastern 91.8%
Roy Rogers 19 Southeastern 92.3%
Luke Schenscher 20 Atlantic Coast 92.6%
Travis Knight 19 Big East 91.1%
Marc Gasol 19 ACB 93.7%
Cherokee Parks 19 Atlantic Coast 92.0%
Very Best Case Comps Dikembe Mutumbo, Brad Daugherty, Patrick Ewing 10%
Likely Best Case Matt Geiger, Marc Gasol, Larry Sanders 10%
Most Likely Loren Woods, Duane Causwell, Jim McIlvaine, Will Purdue, DeAndre Jordan 38%
Likely Worst Case Roy Rogers, Michael Olowokandi, Eric Riley, Jason Collins 35%
Absolute Worst Case Luke Schenscher 8%
Rudy Gobert has some very impressive best case comps. Mutumbo, Daugherty, and Ewing were regular all stars. Geiger, Gasol and Sanders are all very good NBA big men, who really don't get much press. That group though is only 20% of his comps. The list of likely and likely worst case is a very large list (nearly 3/4's of his comps), and frankly this group is a very large group of very pedestrian or worse big guys, not at all a particularly impressive group. At the bottom end is Luke Schenscher, and that's it.
In short Gobert has a tremendous upside, but frankly the odds are small that he will actually reach those levels. He is about 4 times more likely to be Olowokandi than Mutumbo, or 4 times more likely to be DeAndre Jordan than Patrick Ewing, or 4 times more likely to be Jim McIlvane than Brad Daugherty or Marc Gasol.

Average Adjusted Stat Line for Target Player
Season Shooting Statistics Totals
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Rudy Gobert 1 225 421 53.4% 224 418 53.7% 0 3 15.0% 126 189 66.4% 56.5% 53.4%
Rudy Gobert 2 246 464 53.1% 245 458 53.6% 1 6 16.7% 148 219 67.3% 56.6% 53.3%
Rudy Gobert 3 273 492 55.5% 272 489 55.7% 1 3 33.3% 145 222 64.9% 58.0% 55.6%
3 Year Average 250 462 54.1% 249 458 54.4% 1 4 22.3% 141 211 66.2% 57.1% 54.2%
Season Accumulation Stats Totals
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
Rudy Gobert 1 141 248 387 76 33 83 106 0.71 178 576
Rudy Gobert 2 158 298 472 82 40 105 110 0.74 210 642
Rudy Gobert 3 173 316 488 80 49 96 113 0.70 223 691
3 Year Average 159 290 453 80 41 95 110 0.72 206 641
Season Shooting Statistics per 36 Minutes
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Rudy Gobert 1 5.32 9.96 53.4% 5.31 9.89 53.7% 0.01 0.06 12.0% 3.00 4.50 66.4% 56.5% 53.4%
Rudy Gobert 2 4.92 9.27 53.1% 4.90 9.15 53.6% 0.02 0.12 16.3% 2.94 4.38 67.2% 56.6% 53.2%
Rudy Gobert 3 5.13 9.25 55.5% 5.11 9.19 55.7% 0.02 0.05 38.0% 2.71 4.16 65.0% 58.0% 55.6%
3 Year Average 5.1 9.5 54.1% 5.1 9.4 54.4% 0.0 0.1 23.0% 2.9 4.3 66.2% 57.1% 54.1%
Season Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
Rudy Gobert 1 3.32 5.86 9.16 1.81 0.78 1.96 2.51 0.71 4.22 13.64
Rudy Gobert 2 3.17 5.98 9.45 1.63 0.80 2.13 2.20 0.74 4.22 12.81
Rudy Gobert 3 3.26 5.98 9.23 1.50 0.93 1.82 2.13 0.70 4.21 12.99
3 Year Average 3.2 5.9 9.3 1.6 0.8 2.0 2.3 0.72 4.2 13.1
Season Usage Stats
ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
Rudy Gobert 1 9.8% 17.4% 13.4% 6.7% 1.1% 3.6% 15.9% 15.9%
Rudy Gobert 2 9.8% 17.8% 13.7% 6.1% 1.2% 3.7% 15.4% 15.3%
Rudy Gobert 3 10.3% 18.4% 14.3% 6.0% 1.3% 3.6% 15.0% 15.4%
3 Year Average 10.0% 17.9% 13.8% 6.2% 1.2% 3.6% 15.4% 15.5%
Season Advanced Measurements
PER ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
Rudy Gobert 1 13.75 108.7 106.9 1.11 1.92 3.08 0.093
Rudy Gobert 2 14.07 109.5 105.6 1.70 2.30 4.11 0.102
Rudy Gobert 3 14.74 111.0 103.4 2.25 2.92 5.31 0.124
3 Year Average 14.22 109.8 105.2 5.1 7.1 12.50 0.107

For his first 3 years Rudy Gobert projects to be a league average player, but by his 3rd he projects to be a little above average. He projects to be efficient offensively with an Ortg of 109.8. This is based upon a TS% of 57.1%, but based upon his FT% it is obvious he will have very limited range, which is consistent with his long length. Even though he has a very high TS%, his usage rate is very low, and it seems logical that if his usage rate increased his TS% would drop consistently. Even though he is big, he does not project to be a good rebounder, less than 14% rebound rate. Low rebound rate, and a block rate that is low for someone of his length makes him actually a below average defender. While not as bad as Cody Zeller, he is nowhere near as effective defensively as Steven Adams or Gorgui Dieng. Lets be honest, in the right situation he can help a team win a lot of games, but he is pretty much a one-trick-pony. He is a late lottery pick at best, as he is far too limited, and there is a very real possibility that he will become a mediocre journeyman.
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