FanPost

Shabazz Muhammad Comparable Analysis

USA TODAY Sports

Ed. Note: Out of appreciation to ZiggyTheBeagle for all his hard work on these in-depth statistical comparisons, we're turning over the main page to his posts this weekend. Dig in and enjoy as much as we have!

Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches No Step Vert Reach in Inches Max Vert Reach in inches No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint
Shabazz Muhammad 77 78.5 222 9.0% 9 10 84 105.25 134 142 29.5 37 10.99 3.32

Name Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat < than Standard (as a % of BF) Reach > than standard (in inches) Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected
Shabazz Muhammad 14 0.80% 2.42 2.4 -0.66 0.04 0.45
For a player of Shabazz Muhammad's height he is 14 pounds heavy, with small amount of extra body fat. He would be described as long as both his reach and wingspan are about 2.4" longer than average. Athletically he is pretty average, his leaping ability and speed is about average, but his agility is actually pretty good.

Below are the top 20 Comp seasons to Shabazz Muhammad at age 20. The 4th column is only statistical similarity, and does not include any combine measurements.
Shabazz Muhammad Freshman Season - age 20
Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity
Bill Walker 20 Big-12 93.3%
Quentin Richardson 18 Big East 92.7%
Yakhouba Diawara 23 French 95.6%
Doug Edwards 20 Atlantic Coast 91.6%
Calbert Cheaney 20 Big Ten 94.4%
Yakhouba Diawara 21 West Coast 93.6%
Dave Johnson 20 Big East 94.0%
Jim Jackson 19 Big Ten 91.1%
Quentin Richardson 19 Big East 90.8%
Casey Jacobsen 20 Pacific 12 92.2%
Ron Mercer 20 Southeastern 93.0%
Donny Marshall 22 Big East 93.9%
Desmond Mason 21 Big-12 92.0%
Chris Mills 21 Pacific 12 92.5%
Yakhouba Diawara 22 West Coast 93.8%
Alonzo Gee 20 Southeastern 93.7%
Jumaine Jones 19 Southeastern 93.2%
Alonzo Gee 21 Southeastern 94.4%
Dion Glover 19 Atlantic Coast 92.5%
Tremaine Fowlkes 18 Pacific 12 92.6%

Very Best Case Comps 0%
Likely Best Case Chris Mills 5%
Most Likely Jim Jackson, Quentin Richardson, Alonzo Gee, Jumaine Jones 55%
Likely Worst Case Yakhouba Diawara, Bill Walker, Tremaine Fowlkes 30%
Absolute Worst Case Doug Edwards, Dave Johnson 10%
The comparables analysis is quite revealing, and Muhammad grades out as a pretty mediocre prospect. His best case is Chris Mills, who had a solid 10 year career. Of all Muhammad's comps only Mills had a career WS/48 of at least 0.100, and that was 0.105. Jim Jackson, Quentin Richardson and Jumaine Jones were all below average NBA starters, with an average WS/48 of .070. The group below that of Diawara, Walker, Fowlkes, were all marginal lowish minute rotation players at best with short careers. Edwards and Johnson were washouts.

Average Adjusted Stat Line for Target Player
Season Shooting Statistics Totals
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Shabazz Muhammad 1 213 531 40.1% 184 437 42.1% 29 94 30.9% 97 133 72.9% 46.5% 42.8%
Shabazz Muhammad 2 319 779 41.0% 262 625 41.9% 57 154 37.0% 146 182 80.2% 48.6% 44.6%
Shabazz Muhammad 3 322 789 40.8% 267 627 42.6% 56 162 34.6% 150 194 77.3% 48.4% 44.4%
3 Year Average 293 718 40.7% 244 577 42.2% 49 141 34.5% 135 174 77.2% 48.0% 44.1%
Season Accumulation Stats Totals
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
Shabazz Muhammad 1 76 105 178 73 44 14 66 1.11 120 552
Shabazz Muhammad 2 94 175 258 131 55 17 99 1.32 143 841
Shabazz Muhammad 3 89 174 265 110 55 22 92 1.20 151 852
3 Year Average 87 156 240 108 52 18 88 1.22 140 770
Season Shooting Statistics per 36 Minutes
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Shabazz Muhammad 1 5.46 13.61 40.1% 4.72 11.20 42.1% 0.74 2.41 30.7% 2.49 3.41 73.0% 46.5% 42.8%
Shabazz Muhammad 2 5.95 14.52 41.0% 4.88 11.65 41.9% 1.06 2.87 36.9% 2.72 3.39 80.2% 48.6% 44.6%
Shabazz Muhammad 3 5.62 13.77 40.8% 4.66 10.95 42.6% 0.98 2.83 34.6% 2.62 3.39 77.3% 48.4% 44.4%
3 Year Average 5.7 14.0 40.7% 4.8 11.3 42.2% 1.0 2.7 34.4% 2.6 3.4 77.2% 48.0% 44.1%
Season Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
Shabazz Muhammad 1 1.95 2.69 4.56 1.87 1.13 0.36 1.69 1.11 3.08 14.15
Shabazz Muhammad 2 1.75 3.26 4.81 2.44 1.03 0.32 1.85 1.32 2.67 15.67
Shabazz Muhammad 3 1.55 3.04 4.63 1.92 0.96 0.38 1.61 1.19 2.64 14.87
3 Year Average 1.7 3.0 4.7 2.1 1.0 0.4 1.7 1.22 2.8 15.0
Season Usage Stats
ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
Shabazz Muhammad 1 5.9% 8.6% 7.1% 8.1% 1.6% 0.7% 11.0% 19.3%
Shabazz Muhammad 2 5.3% 9.1% 7.2% 9.6% 1.6% 0.7% 11.1% 20.6%
Shabazz Muhammad 3 4.9% 9.8% 7.4% 8.6% 1.4% 0.8% 10.0% 20.2%
3 Year Average 5.3% 9.2% 7.2% 8.8% 1.5% 0.7% 10.7% 20.1%
Season Advanced Measurements
PER ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
Shabazz Muhammad 1 10.95 97.1 112.8 0.72 0.81 1.58 0.046
Shabazz Muhammad 2 12.89 101.0 114.3 1.41 1.04 2.61 0.066
Shabazz Muhammad 3 12.19 99.5 115.0 1.43 1.15 2.74 0.059
3 Year Average 12.12 99.4 114.2 3.6 3.0 6.93 0.058
I will be straight forward, Shabazz Muhammad is not a lottery pick quality player, he is at best a late first round pick. His 3 year average WS/48 is 0.058, and his PER is 12.12. His ORtg is below 100 (99.4), making him a very inefficient offensive player. Muhammad has a long reach and wingspan, and you see the negative effect of that length in his horrible shooting, with a TS% of 48%, and an eFG% of 44%, which hurts his ORtg in a significant way. At the same time his length does not help him defensively, as his DRtg is a horrible 114.2. He doesn't rebound particlaurly well, doesn't get assists, or steals, and to top it off is a fairly high usage player, while maintaining a very low shooting %.
When you look at his comps you see that there is an extremely limited top end for him (Chris Mills), and his most likely case are inefficient NBA starters, or rotation players. In my opinion it would be a MASSIVE mistake for Portland to take Muhammad at #10, he is no way shape or form comparable to Wesley Matthews.
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