FanPost

Ben McLemore Comparable Analysis

Jamie Squire

Ed: bumped to front page

Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches No Step Vert Reach in Inches Max Vert Reach in inches No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint
Ben McLemore 75.75 77 189 5.0% 8.75 9.5 80 100.5 133 142.75 32.5 42 11.87 3.27

Name Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat < than Standard (as a % of BF) Reach > than standard (in inches) Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected
Ben McLemore -15 -0.49% -0.37 -0.04 3.78 -0.02 -0.81
Ben McLemore is 15 lbs lighter than average, and his body fat is 0.49% below average, so we would be described as having a below average build. His length is a little below average, which supports the fact that he is a good shooter. He is an excellent leaper, but average to a little below average athletically.

Below are the top 20 Comp seasons to Ben McLemore at age 19. The 4th column is only statistical similarity.
Ben McLemore Freshman season Age 19
Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity
Latrell Sprewell 21 Southeastern 95.7%
Lawrence Moten 19 Big East 93.7%
Wesley Person 19 Southeastern 95.4%
Bradley Beal 18 Southeastern 96.1%
Lucious Harris 19 Big West 94.3%
Hubert Davis 20 Atlantic Coast 94.0%
Ben Uzoh 19 Conference USA 97.2%
Cuttino Mobley 22 Atlantic 10 96.4%
Latrell Sprewell 20 Southeastern 90.9%
Michael Dickerson 22 Pacific 12 93.5%
Michael Dickerson 20 Pacific 12 92.2%
Alvin Williams 22 Big East 94.6%
James White 23 Big East 96.9%
Rodney Buford 18 Missouri Valley 94.0%
Dave Jamerson 21 Mid-American 94.5%
Lawrence Moten 20 Big East 92.4%
Eric Washington 20 Southeastern 93.0%
Ray Allen 18 Big East 93.3%
Jimmy Oliver 21 Big Ten 94.8%
Derrick Dial 21 Mid-American 95.9%
Very Best Case Comps Ray Allen 5%
Likely Best Case Wesley Person, Cuttino Mobley, Latrell Sprewell 20%
Most Likely Hubert Davis, Lucious Harris, Michael Dickerson 30%
Likely Worst Case Ben Uzoh, Rodney Buford, Derrick Dial 20%
Absolute Worst Case Lawerence Moten, Dave Jamerson, Jimmy Oliver 25%
Let's be honest this is a very underwhelming group of comps. Ray Allen is a Hall-of-Famer, and the next best player is Cuttino Mobley, who was actually a nice player. Latrell Sprewell was Jamal Crawford before Jamal Crawford, and inefficient high usage player. Person and Davis were very nice shooters, and were very good / solid rotation players, but fringe starters. Michael Dickerson may have had a good career, but injuries derailed his career. I think it is revealing that 45% of McLemore's comps were fringe players to busts. There is a clear risk with McLemore, and though the absolute top is HoF, his upside seems limited.

Average Adjusted Stat Line for Target Player
Season Shooting Statistics Totals
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Ben McLemore 1 260 574 45.3% 194 405 47.9% 67 169 39.6% 120 154 77.9% 54.8% 51.1%
Ben McLemore 2 392 890 44.0% 290 619 46.9% 102 271 37.6% 220 266 82.7% 54.5% 49.8%
Ben McLemore 3 380 861 44.1% 284 593 47.9% 96 268 35.8% 221 271 81.6% 54.5% 49.7%
3 Year Average 353 796 44.4% 262 553 47.5% 91 243 37.5% 194 238 81.0% 54.6% 50.1%
Season Accumulation Stats Totals
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
Ben McLemore 1 50 125 174 149 56 23 104 1.43 128 709
Ben McLemore 2 68 204 284 214 94 34 145 1.48 164 1106
Ben McLemore 3 59 195 251 190 67 25 141 1.35 142 1077
3 Year Average 60 180 243 188 74 28 133 1.42 146 990
Season Shooting Statistics per 36 Minutes
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Ben McLemore 1 5.51 12.17 45.3% 4.11 8.58 47.9% 1.42 3.58 39.7% 2.54 3.26 77.9% 54.9% 51.1%
Ben McLemore 2 5.94 13.48 44.1% 4.39 9.38 46.8% 1.55 4.11 37.7% 3.33 4.03 82.6% 54.5% 49.8%
Ben McLemore 3 5.85 13.26 44.1% 4.37 9.13 47.9% 1.48 4.13 35.8% 3.40 4.17 81.5% 54.5% 49.7%
3 Year Average 5.8 13.1 44.4% 4.3 9.1 47.5% 1.5 4.0 37.5% 3.2 3.9 81.0% 54.6% 50.1%
Season Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
Ben McLemore 1 1.06 2.65 3.69 3.16 1.19 0.49 2.20 1.44 2.71 15.03
Ben McLemore 2 1.03 3.09 4.30 3.24 1.42 0.52 2.20 1.47 2.48 16.76
Ben McLemore 3 0.91 3.00 3.87 2.93 1.03 0.39 2.17 1.35 2.19 16.59
3 Year Average 1.0 2.9 4.0 3.1 1.2 0.5 2.2 1.42 2.4 16.2
Season Usage Stats
ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
Ben McLemore 1 3.3% 7.9% 5.6% 13.2% 1.6% 0.9% 13.0% 18.8%
Ben McLemore 2 3.1% 9.4% 6.1% 14.0% 1.8% 0.9% 11.9% 20.5%
Ben McLemore 3 2.9% 9.5% 6.1% 13.8% 1.5% 0.7% 11.7% 21.8%
3 Year Average 3.1% 9.0% 6.0% 13.7% 1.6% 0.8% 12.1% 20.5%
Season Advanced Measurements
PER ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
Ben McLemore 1 13.17 106.3 110.8 1.62 0.98 2.61 0.068
Ben McLemore 2 14.97 107.5 108.6 3.37 1.58 4.90 0.085
Ben McLemore 3 15.07 106.3 109.6 2.34 1.18 3.48 0.074
3 Year Average 14.53 106.7 109.5 7.3 3.7 10.99 0.076

Ben McLemore is projected to go very high in the draft, most mocks have him going 1,2 or 3. Overall he grades out to be a below average NBA player after 3 seasons. His DRtg of 109.5 is poor to very poor, and is supported by the fact that he isn't a long player. His ORtg is 106.7, which is average to a little above average. When you consider his comps, there are some important things to consider. Only 13 of his 20 comps played three years (I consider Bradley Beal one of those 13) in the league. That is a very low number, all of Steven Adams played 3 years, and 39 of Cody Zeller's 40 played 3 years. That means there is greater risk with a player like McLemore. His best case is Ray Allen, but that is really the only player that would be considered a star. There is a 45% chance that he will end up as a very below average NBA player. His Most Likely Best Case comps (Wesley Peron, Latrell Sprewell, and Cuttino Mobley) were solid NBA players for a long time, but Sprewell was a hugh usage inefficient player, and Person was an efficient supprting player. Mobley was the best of taht lot, and was a very solid NBA starting SG for a number of years.

Ben McLemore projects to be a very good shooter, 37.5% on 3's, 81% at the FT line, and 54.2% TS%. He will be an OK passer for a shooting guard, averaging just over 3 assists per 36 minutes, and will not turn the ball over a lot, so his A/To will be OK to good for a SG. He projects to be a pretty efficient, medium to high usage player. Damian Lillard projected in a similar way to McLemore in shooting and usage, and shot like he was predicted, but his usage was higher. That is why Lillard exceeded expectations; you did not see a drop off in his efficiency as his usage rate increased. If McLemore can do the same, then he is a candidate to be exceed the projections I have for him. I think it is very instructive to understand this point. Damian Lillard exceeded this tools projections somewhat, mainly because of 2 specific reasons. He went to the perfect situation for him, and then he maintained his efficiency as his usage rate went up. If McLemore winds up in the right situation, that alone will improve his odds of success. Overall my model projects McLemore as a very late lottery selection 12-15 range, based mainly upon the fact that so many of his comps didn't make it.
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