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Steven Adams Comparable Analysis

Name Height Inches no Shoes Height Inches w/shoes Weight Body Fat Hand Length Hand Width Wingspan Inches Reach in Inches No Step Vert Reach in Inches Max Vert Reach in inches No Step Vert Max Vert Bench Agility Sprint
Steven Adams 83 84 255 6.7% 9.5 11 88.5 109.5 138 142.75 28.5 33 11.85 3.4

Name Weight > than standard (in lbs) Body Fat < than Standard (as a % of BF) Reach > than standard (in inches) Wingspan > than standard (in inches) Vertical > than standard (in inches) Speed > than standard (in sec) Agility > than standard (in sec) # additional bench reps than expected
Steven Adams 16 -3.69% -0.41 1.6 0.81 0.03 0.12
Steven Adams weight is 16 lbs more than average, but his body fat is 3.7% less than average, so his extra weight is muscle, not fat. His length would be described at a little longer than average; his reach is 0.41" shorter than average, and wingspan is 1.6" longer than average. His athleticism is a little better than average, an above average leaper, with good agility, and average speed.

Below are the top 20 Comp seasons to Steven Adams at age 19. The 4th column is only statistical similarity.
Steven Adams Freshman season Age 19
Player Age Conference Statistical Similarity
Andre Drummond 18 Big East 94.4%
Joel Przybilla 19 Big Ten 93.5%
Evan Eschmeyer 20 Big Ten 93.4%
Hasheem Thabeet 19 Big East 92.8%
Ekpe Udoh 19 Big Ten 93.9%
Robin Lopez 18 Pacific 12 94.9%
Jamaal Magloire 20 Southeastern 95.1%
Byron Mullens 19 Big Ten 93.4%
Terrence Jones 20 Southeastern 90.7%
Josh Boone 19 Big East 97.2%
Loren Woods 18 Atlantic Coast 93.7%
Eric Montross 19 Atlantic Coast 93.2%
Ed Davis 19 Atlantic Coast 95.4%
Tristan Thompson 19 Big-12 91.4%
Derrick Favors 18 Atlantic Coast 91.2%
Bernard James 26 Atlantic Coast 94.8%
Kelvin Cato 21 Big-12 92.8%
Andrea Bargnani 19 Italian 89.0%
Meyers Leonard 19 Big Ten 90.3%
Bernard James 27 Atlantic Coast 94.3%
Very Best Case Comps Andre Drummond 5%
Likely Best Case Robin Lopez, Ed Davis, Derrick Favors 15%
Most Likely Joel Przybilla, Kelvin Cato, Tristan Thompson 60%
Likely Worst Case Eric Montross, Loren Woods 15%
Absolute Worst Case Hasheem Thabeet 5%

Average Adjusted Stat Line for Target Player
Season Shooting Statistics Totals
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Steven Adams 1 162 323 50.2% 154 299 51.5% 8 24 33.3% 81 128 63.3% 53.9% 51.4%
Steven Adams 2 195 395 49.4% 183 360 50.8% 12 36 33.3% 103 163 63.2% 53.5% 50.9%
Steven Adams 3 217 432 50.2% 204 400 51.0% 13 32 40.6% 120 177 67.8% 55.0% 51.7%
3 Year Average 194 388 49.9% 183 357 51.1% 11 31 36.0% 103 158 64.9% 54.2% 51.3%
Season Accumulation Stats Totals
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
Steven Adams 1 127 196 327 32 26 66 59 0.54 147 413
Steven Adams 2 136 254 387 56 33 66 73 0.77 166 505
Steven Adams 3 158 268 436 54 35 91 78 0.69 192 567
3 Year Average 142 243 388 48 32 75 71 0.67 170 502
Season Shooting Statistics per 36 Minutes
FG FGA FG% 2P 2PA 2P% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% TS% eFG%
Steven Adams 1 4.63 9.22 50.2% 4.40 8.54 51.5% 0.23 0.69 33.3% 2.31 3.65 63.3% 53.9% 51.5%
Steven Adams 2 4.63 9.38 49.4% 4.35 8.55 50.9% 0.28 0.85 32.9% 2.45 3.87 63.3% 53.5% 50.9%
Steven Adams 3 4.75 9.46 50.2% 4.47 8.76 51.0% 0.28 0.70 40.0% 2.63 3.88 67.8% 55.0% 51.7%
3 Year Average 4.7 9.4 49.9% 4.4 8.6 51.1% 0.3 0.8 35.7% 2.5 3.8 65.0% 54.2% 51.4%
Season Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes
ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV A/TO PF PTS
Steven Adams 1 3.63 5.60 9.34 0.91 0.74 1.88 1.68 0.54 4.20 11.79
Steven Adams 2 3.23 6.03 9.19 1.33 0.78 1.57 1.73 0.77 3.94 11.99
Steven Adams 3 3.46 5.87 9.55 1.18 0.77 1.99 1.71 0.69 4.20 12.42
3 Year Average 3.4 5.8 9.4 1.2 0.8 1.8 1.7 0.68 4.1 12.1
Season Usage Stats
ORB% DRB% TRB% AST% STL% BLK% TOV% USG%
Steven Adams 1 11.4% 17.3% 14.6% 4.0% 1.1% 4.0% 12.7% 16.0%
Steven Adams 2 10.7% 19.2% 15.3% 5.5% 1.1% 3.4% 13.0% 16.5%
Steven Adams 3 10.8% 18.2% 14.8% 5.0% 1.1% 4.1% 12.8% 16.9%
3 Year Average 10.9% 18.3% 14.9% 4.9% 1.1% 3.8% 12.8% 16.5%
Season Advanced Measurements
PER ORtg DRtg OWS DWS WS WS/48
Steven Adams 1 13.56 108.5 95.3 1.02 1.32 2.34 0.090
Steven Adams 2 13.90 107.2 93.0 1.38 1.69 3.03 0.095
Steven Adams 3 14.65 108.0 92.4 1.58 2.18 3.78 0.105
3 Year Average 14.08 107.9 93.4 4.0 5.2 9.15 0.097
Overall Steven Adams will be a league average player over his first 3 NBA seasons. His comps are very heavily weighted towards very effective defensive big men (Andre Drummond, Joel Przybilla, Kelvin Cato, Ekpe Udoh, Derrick Favors). One of the key ways I evaluate players is consider how many of a players comps make it 3 years. All of Steven Adams comps played 3 years at least, or haven't yet played 3 years and are still in the league (ie Andre Drummond, Terrence Jones). This indicates that the risk with a player like Jones is less than with many other players, but I think it is fair to say his ceiling/best case is a little lower. Steven Adams projects to be a TREMENDOUS DEFENDER in the NBA with a 93.4 defensive rating. Offensively he will be effective (108 ORtg), but not as effective as say Meyers Leonard nor Cody Zeller. His length is good, but not exceptional, and his athleticism is above average. His slightly above average length, helps him defensively, and does not impede him offensively. His rebounding rate (15%) is good, but not great, and his block rate 3.8% places him near the top 20 in the league. His turnover rate is very low, and he is not foul prone, better than average for a defensive big guy. He is an average FT shooter, but he doesn't get to the line like Cody Zeller would.
Most mock drafts have Steven Adams going in the high teens, but in my opinion he should be a lottery selection. In my opinion Steven Adams would be an excellent pick for Portland, a far better pick than Cody Zeller. In aggregate they will produce a similar number of WS/48, but Adams will get more of his production on the defensive end, Cody Zeller almost exclusively on the offensive end. Of all the top 25 players in the Draft Express Top 25, Steven Adams projects to have the largest ORtg to DRtg delta, 14.5 points per 100 possessions. It is very difficult to sign a quality free agent big man, it is incumbent upon teams to draft and develop big men. With Adams and Meyers Leonard Portland would have two excellent, and complimentary very young big men they can develop.
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