FanPost

Off Season Scenarios & Mike Dunleavy

Since this is all that's left to think about for the off season I figure I'll play along as well. Like a good math student I'll post my idea at the top and show my work below:

FINAL ROSTER

PG: Lillard  | Kabongo
SG: Matthews | Redick | Barton
SF: Batum | Dunleavy | Claver
PF: Aldridge | Deing | Jean-Charles
C: Dalembert | Leonard | O'Neil

OR

PG: Lillard | Kabongo
SG: Matthews | Redick | Barton
SF: Batum | Dunleavy | Claver
PF: Aldridge | Jones | Jean-Charles
C: Asik | Leonard | O'Neil
Anyway here's the thinking and I'll start by setting the stage, even though I know most people know all this by now, but I suppose it's worth repeating.

START OF THE OFF-SEASON ROSTER

Lillard ($3.2 million) 
Matthews ($6.5 million)
Barton ($0.8 million)
Batum ($11.3 million)
Claver ($1.3 million)
Aldridge ($14.6 million)
Leonard ($2.2 million)
Freeland ($2.8 million)

That is a total salary of: $42.7 million, and if last years cap was $58 million, that leaves roughly $15 million.

TEAM NEEDS

All this is well established too, but I'll recap quickly:

1) A center. One that doesn't replicate what Aldridge does, that is 7'0" (like Aldridge requested), that grabs rebounds, sets well executed picks, and defends well.
2) Bench scoring / 6th man.
3) Better bench players at every position.
4) Replenish talent pool after several years of draft picks are let go with out providing anything other than cap space.

This final point is most important I think. The Blazers are at a huge disadvantage talent wise after recently drafting Greg Oden, Brandon Roy, Nolan Smith, Luke Babbitt, Armon Johnson, Elliot Williams and getting nothing back for them as they leave. It means we don't have talent or potential talent to develop or use in trades. And on top of that we have traded at least one of our upcoming frist round draft picks. I think planning on hitting a home run this off-season is not going to happen. I see this off season as the second in rebuilding a talent base for the future. If Lillard had turned out to be as good as Leonard we wouldn't even be thinking of making a "great" team this off season.

Since Lillard has instantly and amazingly filled one of the most pressing recent needs, a talented point guard, we are in position to "re-tool" "re-load" or whatever it was they called it, rather than "re-build".

++++

OFF SEASON PLAN: THE DRAFT

1st Round: Gorgui Deing

2nd Round: Livio Jean-Charles, Myck Kabongo

Since Deing, Steven Adams, and Jeff Whithy are all currently project to go later in the draft I would approach the Mavs, Bucks, Jazz, to swap trades. Ideally this would look something like Joel Freeland + #10 draft pick for the #14 draft pick and either future 1st round pick or two second round picks. (Making the assumption that Shabazz is an attractive target for the Bucks.)

(Ideally that plays out. Additional second round picks I'm curious about are: Jackie Carmichael, Will Cherry, Mouamadouh Jaiteh.)

After the draft that leaves the depth chart looking like:

PG: Lillard |______| Kabongo

SG: Matthews |______| Barton

SF: Batum |_______| Claver

PF: Aldridge |_______| Jean-Charles

C: |______| Leonard | Deing

Lets say that adds $3.5 million in salary and sheds $2.8 million with Freeland gone. That's roughly $14 million.

OFF SEASON PLAN 1: FREE AGENTS

JJ Redick ( $20.0 million / 3 years) 
Mike Dunleavy ($6.0 million / 3 years)
Samuel Dalembert ($ 15.0 million / 3 years)
Jermaine O'Neil ( $1.5 million / 2 years)

Final line up of.

PG: Lillard  | Kabongo
SG: Matthews | Redick | Barton
SF: Batum | Dunleavy | Claver
PF: Aldridge | Deing | Jean-Charles
C: Dalembert | Leonard | O'Neil

OFF SEASON PLAN 1: FREE AGENTS

If Houston does make a run at Dwight Howard (sign and trade) I think Asik would be a great target.

So here is the fantasy three way:

Houston sends Omer Asik and Terrence Jones to the Blazers, and Jeremy Lin and Thomas Robinson to the Lakers. Portland sends first round pick to Lakers and Joel Freeland to Houston. Lakers send Dwight Howard to Houston.

Houston gets Howard and get to keep and they afford to loose Lin if they think Beverly can keep playing this way. Lakers get a decent point guard, with name draw, Thomas Robinson and a first round draft pick (Shabazz Muhammad).

The rest of it plays out pretty much the same.

2nd Round: Livio Jean-Charles, Myck Kabongo

JJ Redick ( $20.0 million / 3 years) 
Mike Dunleavy ($6.0 million / 3 years)
Jermaine O'Neil ( $1.5 million / 2 years)

Meaning the final roster would look like:

PG: Lillard | Kabongo
SG: Matthews | Redick | Barton
SF: Batum | Dunleavy | Claver
PF: Aldridge | Jones | Jean-Charles
C: Asik | Leonard | O'Neil

Anyway, that's that, whaddaya think.

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