Pelton: Computer Simulations Favor Lakers Over Blazers For Playoffs

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-US PRESSWIRE

Computer simulations favor the Los Angeles Lakers over the Portland Trail Blazers in the Western Conference race for the playoffs.

Kevin Pelton of ESPN.com (Insider) writes that the numbers suggest the Los Angeles Lakers have a better chance of making the playoffs over the Portland Trail Blazers.

For the first time in weeks, the Lakers looked likely to make the playoffs after winning at Brooklyn Tuesday night. The Hollinger Playoff Odds give them a 47.4 percent shot of making the playoffs; my simulation is even more optimistic because it incorporates preseason Vegas lines, weighted about half as much as performance to date based on research by Insider's Neil Paine. The Lakers made it a full 57 percent of the time.

Just when the Lakers were starting to feel good about their chances, they found out they will be without Pau Gasol for an extended period. After an MRI Wednesday, the Lakers announced that Gasol has a torn plantar fascia. Such an injury usually carries a timetable of at least 3-4 weeks, and a league source told ESPNLA.com that the Lakers are expecting to be without Gasol for 4-6 weeks -- about half the remainder of the season.

...

Portland admirably continues to hang in the playoff race despite a point differential similar to the 18-28 Minnesota Timberwolves and 17-32 Toronto Raptors. If the Blazers are still even with or ahead of the Lakers after the two teams play the day after the trade deadline, then it will be time to start taking their playoff chances seriously.

The Blazers are currently in ninth with a record of 25-24. The Lakers are in tenth with a record of 23-26.

Back in January, Pelton wrote that the Blazers would be hard-pressed to finish above .500.

-- Ben Golliver | benjamin.golliver@gmail.com | Twitter

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Blazer's Edge

You must be a member of Blazer's Edge to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Blazer's Edge. You should read them.

Join Blazer's Edge

You must be a member of Blazer's Edge to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Blazer's Edge. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker