Here is the comps list for the remainder of the top 20 in the 2012 draft.
| Anthony Davis | |||
| Player | Season | Overall Statistical Similarity | |
| Cole Aldrich | SO | 101.57% | |
| Hakeem Olajuwon | SO | 103.87% | |
| Joakim Noah | SO | 99.68% | |
| Elton Brand | SO | 104.01% | |
| Tim Duncan | SO | 102.45% | |
| Shelden Williams | SO | 100.62% | |
| Derrick Coleman | SO | 106.36% | |
| Dikembe Mutumbo | SO | 107.69% | |
| Al Horford | SO | 104.59% | |
| Roy Hibbert | SO | 106.07% | |
| Overall Anthony Davis' rookie year projection is 94.08% similar to his actual stats, and his projection is in the 99.7% percentile for overall similarity. I chose to include a few players who debuted in the NBA prior to 1990, specifically for Anthony Davis. Patrick Ewing was also a good comp for Anthony Davis. The second best overall comp to Anthony Davis as a freshman was Hakeem Olajuwon as a Jr. I used Olajuwon's sophomore stats to calcuate AD's NBA stats. This list of Comps is extremely impressive. | |||
| Michael Kidd Gilchrist | |||
| Player | Season | Overall Statistical Similarity | |
| Chuck Hayes | Fr | 101.95% | |
| Trevor Booker | So | 98.74% | |
| Brandon Bass | Fr | 102.02% | |
| Anthony Tolliver | So | 97.33% | |
| Jared Dudley | Fr | 101.01% | |
| Wesley Matthews | So | 100.51% | |
| Jeff Green | Fr | 98.76% | |
| Luc Mbah a Moute | Fr | 102.10% | |
| Joey Graham | Fr | 98.29% | |
| Sam Young | Fr | 103.72% | |
| Overall Michael Kidd Gilchrist rookie year projection is 95.46% similar to his actual stats, and his projection is in the 99.7% percentile for overall similarity. While this list of comps is not loaded with a bunch of stars, it is a good list of generally highly effective players. It is interesting to note that Wesley Matthews as a sophomore comped well to MKG, Bradley Beal, and Dion Waiters, and yet he was undrafted. | |||
| Bradley Beal | |||
| Player | Season | Overall Statistical Similarity | |
| Josh Childress | So | 100.56% | |
| Chase Budinger | Fr | 100.61% | |
| Brandon Rush | So | 103.45% | |
| Reggie Williams | Fr | 102.51% | |
| Courtney Lee | Fr | 101.15% | |
| Wesley Matthews | So | 102.21% | |
| Rashad McCants | Fr | 98.42% | |
| Toney Douglas | Fr | 101.36% | |
| Wayne Ellington | So | 100.31% | |
| Devin Harris | Fr | 104.78% | |
| Overall has a decent set of comps, but in the aggregate Damian Lillard projects to have more effective and productive first 3 years in the league. What hurt Beal the most was his generally inefficient shooting as a Freshman. | |||
| Dion Waiters | |||
| Player | Season | Overall Statistical Similarity | |
| Khalid Reeves | So | 100.47% | |
| Nick Van Exel | Jr | 100.78% | |
| Randy Foye | Jr | 99.36% | |
| William Avery | So | 98.03% | |
| Rashad McCants | Jr | 96.06% | |
| Gerald Henderson | Jr | 98.61% | |
| Fred Jones | Jr | 98.58% | |
| Tony Allen | So | 96.90% | |
| James Harden | Fr | 95.69% | |
| Wesley Matthews | So | 102.47% | |
| Overall Dion Waiters rookie year projection is 93.87% similar to his actual stats, and his projection is in the 97.7% percentile for overall similarity. Overall it is clear from the projection that Waiters was a reach at #4, he should have gone between 8-11. His performance so far has been better in accumulation and worse in efficiency than his projection. Right now he projects to be an underachiever, who will rack up accumulation stats, but will generally hurt his team in the process. His shooting and efficiency stats so far are very poor. | |||
| Thomas Robinson | |||
| Player | Season | Overall Statistical Similarity | |
| Glen Davis | Jr | 102.46% | |
| Jason Thompson | Jr | 99.01% | |
| Charlie Villanueva | So | 102.46% | |
| David Lee | Sr | 103.77% | |
| Jon Brockman | Jr | 103.15% | |
| Darius Songaila | Sr | 99.22% | |
| David West | Jr | 99.91% | |
| Lawrence Roberts | Jr | 102.31% | |
| Nick Collison | Jr | 98.86% | |
| Carl Landry | Jr | 99.77% | |
| Overall Thomas Robinson has a good selection of effective comps. Robinson so far has underachived, and it is almost completely due to his very poor shooting. My opinion is that he will eventually see improvement in that regard, and he will become an effective NBA player. | |||
| Harrison Barnes | |||
| Player | Season | Overall Statistical Similarity | |
| Luol Deng | Fr | 99.58% | |
| Rudy Gay | So | 98.31% | |
| Kirk Snyder | So | 97.99% | |
| Carmelo Anthony | Fr | 93.83% | |
| Dahntay Jones | Sr | 98.71% | |
| Thaddeus Young | Fr | 101.53% | |
| Nick Young | So | 100.61% | |
| Rodney Carney | Jr | 100.88% | |
| Kelenna Azubuike | So | 101.45% | |
| Michael Redd | So | 101.51% | |
| This is generally a good overall group of comps. The tool projects that Barnes will progress, though he will not progress dramatically. By his 4th year in the league, he will be a solid average NBA starter. | |||
| Terrence Ross | |||
| Player | Season | Overall Statistical Similarity | |
| Wayne Ellington | So | 101.28% | |
| Josh Childress | So | 101.95% | |
| Chase Budinger | So | 101.96% | |
| Jawad Williams | So | 102.81% | |
| Rodney Carney | So | 103.52% | |
| Ryan Anderson | So | 101.11% | |
| Tayshaun Prince | Sr | 99.98% | |
| Tamar Slay | Sr | 99.17% | |
| Demetris Nichols | Jr | 99.51% | |
| Courtney Lee | Jr | 99.29% | |
| Terrence Ross is projected to be one of the two biggest stretches in the top 20 picks. His projected production is poor, due mainly to his poor efficiency. Ross should have been picked very late in the first round to the middle of the second round. | |||
| Andre Drummond | |||
| Player | Season | Overall Statistical Similarity | |
| Louis Amundson | So | 99.84% | |
| Robin Lopez | So | 102.00% | |
| Kelvin Cato | Jr | 99.09% | |
| Sharone Wright | Fr | 101.13% | |
| Sean May | Fr | 96.60% | |
| Ervin Johnson | So | 96.84% | |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | So | 94.95% | |
| Antonio McDyess | Fr | 101.10% | |
| Jon Brockman | Fr | 100.58% | |
| DeAndre Jordan | Fr | 99.58% | |
| Drummond has a very diverse set of comps, and he projected to have a decent first 3 years in the league. He has blown well past his projections. He projected to be drafted between #6 & #9, but he has been playing like the #2 overall pick. | |||
| Austin Rivers | |||
| Player | Season | Overall Statistical Similarity | |
| Willie Green | Jr | 101.13% | |
| Antoine Wright | So | 100.81% | |
| Malik Hairston | So | 99.27% | |
| Reggie Williams | Fr | 99.05% | |
| Courtney Lee | Fr | 97.74% | |
| Chase Budinger | So | 96.96% | |
| Nick Young | Fr | 101.30% | |
| Rodney Carney | Fr | 99.88% | |
| Keith Bogans | Jr | 99.99% | |
| Maurice Ager | Fr | 104.96% | |
| The two players who were clearly the biggest stretchs in the top 20 were Terrence Ross, and Austin Rivers, and of the entire top 20 picks in the draft Austin Rivers is projected to be the worst. One of the things I try to do is filter out some comps, if the players had limited NBA careers. The number of fringe NBA player who comped well to Austin Rivers was more than any other player. The reality is that Austin Rivers projects to be a mid to late second round pick at best. Rivers projects to be less productive than even Tyshawn Taylor taken at #41, and Taylor was clearly a mid-second round pick at best. The player most likely to bust in this draft is Austin Rivers, driven mainly by his absolutely horrendous shooting. | |||
| Jeremy Lamb | |||
| Player | Season | Overall Statistical Similarity | |
| Kelenna Azubuike | So | 100.16% | |
| Wayne Ellington | So | 98.96% | |
| Latrell Sprewell | So | 98.41% | |
| Manny Harris | So | 96.31% | |
| Derrick Dial | So | 99.81% | |
| Arron Afflalo | So | 101.53% | |
| Rawle Marshall | So | 99.37% | |
| J.J. Redick | So | 100.79% | |
| A.J. Guyton | So | 99.19% | |
| Delonte West | So | 96.25% | |
| I found the comps to Latrell Sprewell, Wayne Ellington, Manny Harris, Derrick Dial, Rawle Marshall, A.J. Guyton and Delonte West revealing. Jeremy Lamb will disappoint. His best case is Latrell Sprewell, and Sprewell was a classic overrated underachiever. | |||
| Kendall Marshall | |||
| Player | Season | Overall Statistical Similarity | |
| Jacque Vaughn | So | 101.31% | |
| Kevin Ollie | Jr | 105.97% | |
| Eric Snow | Jr | 103.00% | |
| Drew Barry | So | 102.45% | |
| Steve Blake | So | 103.11% | |
| Chris Duhon | So | 103.76% | |
| Raymond Felton | So | 98.99% | |
| Kirk Hinrich | So | 97.86% | |
| Deron Williams | So | 100.21% | |
| Jarrett Jack | So | 97.65% | |
| This is a very interesting group of PG's. This group is generally non-athletic, and generally more effective than people want to give them credit for. As a group they are not stars, but they are efficient, and generally effective. | |||
| John Henson | |||
| Player | Season | Overall Statistical Similarity | |
| Chris Wilcox | So | 100.47% | |
| Dean Garrett | Jr | 102.40% | |
| Ryan Humphrey | Jr | 100.53% | |
| Eric Mobley | Jr | 99.18% | |
| Erick Dampier | Jr | 99.62% | |
| Sharone Wright | Jr | 97.41% | |
| Antonio McDyess | So | 97.74% | |
| Jim McIlvaine | Sr | 98.77% | |
| Yinka Dare | So | 99.30% | |
| Charlie Villanueva | So | 97.96% | |
| John Henson I believe will be a disappoitment long term. He is very inefficient as a shooter, and as a group these players were overall less effective than than first think. | |||
| Moe Harkless | |||
| Player | Season | Overall Statistical Similarity | |
| Eduardo Najera | Fr | 106.58% | |
| Luol Deng | Fr | 98.51% | |
| Rudy Gay | So | 97.50% | |
| James Johnson | Fr | 96.49% | |
| Chris Mills | Fr | 99.21% | |
| Lamond Murray | Fr | 98.72% | |
| Wilson Chandler | Fr | 104.54% | |
| Anthony Randolph | Fr | 99.01% | |
| Desmond Mason | Fr | 111.52% | |
| Thaddeus Young | Fr | 100.35% | |
| Five years from now Moe Harkless will be seen as one of the better picks in this draft. His best overall comp was Desmond Mason as a Jr., and I projected Harkless based upon Mason as a Freshman. This is a generally effective group. Harkless should have been taken 6-8 picks earlier. | |||
| Royce White | |||
| Player | Season | Overall Statistical Similarity | |
| Clarence Weatherspoon | Fr | 101.69% | |
| Jabari Smith | So | 103.17% | |
| Chris Mills | Fr | 103.04% | |
| Luke Walton | Jr | 100.65% | |
| Anthony Bonner | Jr | 100.79% | |
| Danny Ferry | So | 102.72% | |
| Lamar Odom | Fr | 98.63% | |
| Jason Caffey | So | 102.64% | |
| Stacey Augmon | So | 98.89% | |
| Grant Hill | So | 101.06% | |
| Not sure if Royce White will ever play in the league, but if he does he will be a very unique and effective player. If not for the concerns regarding his mental health issues, Royce White should have been drafted in the top-6 to 7. | |||
| Tyler Zeller | |||
| Player | Season | Overall Statistical Similarity | |
| Loren Meyer | Sr | 102.93% | |
| Anthony Avent | Jr | 101.70% | |
| Alaa Abdelnaby | Sr | 101.90% | |
| Eric Montross | Jr | 102.93% | |
| Bill Curley | Sr | 100.93% | |
| Tony Massenburg | Sr | 102.27% | |
| Tyrone Hill | So | 103.03% | |
| Todd Fuller | Jr | 103.58% | |
| Bison Dele | Jr | 102.72% | |
| Brian Grant | Sr | 100.05% | |
| Meyers Leonard comps out as a far more effective player than Tyler Zeller. It is not even close. This is a very mediocre group of comps, and Zeller will be a very mediocre NBA player. | |||
| Terrence Jones | |||
| Player | Season | Overall Statistical Similarity | |
| Ansu Sesay | Jr | 100.06% | |
| Anthony Tolliver | So | 98.76% | |
| Jerome Moiso | So | 100.85% | |
| Earl Clark | So | 101.18% | |
| Samaki Walker | Fr | 98.91% | |
| Devean George | Fr | 96.75% | |
| Desmond Mason | So | 98.43% | |
| Alan Henderson | So | 99.58% | |
| Jared Jeffries | So | 99.19% | |
| Donyell Marshall | So | 95.96% | |
| This is a very underwhelming group of comparables. Terrence Jones comps better than Ross, Rivers and Lamb, and similar to John Henson. | |||
| Andrew Nicholson | |||
| Player | Season | Overall Statistical Similarity | |
| Tony Battie | Jr | 100.11% | |
| Byron Houston | Sr | 99.91% | |
| Will Perdue | Jr | 101.97% | |
| Rafael Araujo | Sr | 98.92% | |
| Paul Davis | Sr | 100.55% | |
| Brian Grant | Sr | 100.82% | |
| Carl Landry | Jr | 100.87% | |
| Todd Fuller | Sr | 100.83% | |
| Bryant Reeves | Sr | 101.25% | |
| Tyler Hansbrough | Sr | 99.43% | |
| Nicholson will be one of the better picks of this draft. He should have been selected 7-8 picks higher. This is a good solid group of NBA players, and Nicholson clearly projects to be a better player than Tyler Zeller, John Henson, Terrence Jones, as well as Lamb, Ross and Rivers. |
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