FanPost

Comps List for the remainder of the top 20 in the 2012 draft

Here is the comps list for the remainder of the top 20 in the 2012 draft.

Anthony Davis
Player Season Overall Statistical Similarity
Cole Aldrich SO 101.57%
Hakeem Olajuwon SO 103.87%
Joakim Noah SO 99.68%
Elton Brand SO 104.01%
Tim Duncan SO 102.45%
Shelden Williams SO 100.62%
Derrick Coleman SO 106.36%
Dikembe Mutumbo SO 107.69%
Al Horford SO 104.59%
Roy Hibbert SO 106.07%
Overall Anthony Davis' rookie year projection is 94.08% similar to his actual stats, and his projection is in the 99.7% percentile for overall similarity. I chose to include a few players who debuted in the NBA prior to 1990, specifically for Anthony Davis. Patrick Ewing was also a good comp for Anthony Davis. The second best overall comp to Anthony Davis as a freshman was Hakeem Olajuwon as a Jr. I used Olajuwon's sophomore stats to calcuate AD's NBA stats. This list of Comps is extremely impressive.
Michael Kidd Gilchrist
Player Season Overall Statistical Similarity
Chuck Hayes Fr 101.95%
Trevor Booker So 98.74%
Brandon Bass Fr 102.02%
Anthony Tolliver So 97.33%
Jared Dudley Fr 101.01%
Wesley Matthews So 100.51%
Jeff Green Fr 98.76%
Luc Mbah a Moute Fr 102.10%
Joey Graham Fr 98.29%
Sam Young Fr 103.72%
Overall Michael Kidd Gilchrist rookie year projection is 95.46% similar to his actual stats, and his projection is in the 99.7% percentile for overall similarity. While this list of comps is not loaded with a bunch of stars, it is a good list of generally highly effective players. It is interesting to note that Wesley Matthews as a sophomore comped well to MKG, Bradley Beal, and Dion Waiters, and yet he was undrafted.
Bradley Beal
Player Season Overall Statistical Similarity
Josh Childress So 100.56%
Chase Budinger Fr 100.61%
Brandon Rush So 103.45%
Reggie Williams Fr 102.51%
Courtney Lee Fr 101.15%
Wesley Matthews So 102.21%
Rashad McCants Fr 98.42%
Toney Douglas Fr 101.36%
Wayne Ellington So 100.31%
Devin Harris Fr 104.78%
Overall has a decent set of comps, but in the aggregate Damian Lillard projects to have more effective and productive first 3 years in the league. What hurt Beal the most was his generally inefficient shooting as a Freshman.
Dion Waiters
Player Season Overall Statistical Similarity
Khalid Reeves So 100.47%
Nick Van Exel Jr 100.78%
Randy Foye Jr 99.36%
William Avery So 98.03%
Rashad McCants Jr 96.06%
Gerald Henderson Jr 98.61%
Fred Jones Jr 98.58%
Tony Allen So 96.90%
James Harden Fr 95.69%
Wesley Matthews So 102.47%
Overall Dion Waiters rookie year projection is 93.87% similar to his actual stats, and his projection is in the 97.7% percentile for overall similarity. Overall it is clear from the projection that Waiters was a reach at #4, he should have gone between 8-11. His performance so far has been better in accumulation and worse in efficiency than his projection. Right now he projects to be an underachiever, who will rack up accumulation stats, but will generally hurt his team in the process. His shooting and efficiency stats so far are very poor.
Thomas Robinson
Player Season Overall Statistical Similarity
Glen Davis Jr 102.46%
Jason Thompson Jr 99.01%
Charlie Villanueva So 102.46%
David Lee Sr 103.77%
Jon Brockman Jr 103.15%
Darius Songaila Sr 99.22%
David West Jr 99.91%
Lawrence Roberts Jr 102.31%
Nick Collison Jr 98.86%
Carl Landry Jr 99.77%
Overall Thomas Robinson has a good selection of effective comps. Robinson so far has underachived, and it is almost completely due to his very poor shooting. My opinion is that he will eventually see improvement in that regard, and he will become an effective NBA player.
Harrison Barnes
Player Season Overall Statistical Similarity
Luol Deng Fr 99.58%
Rudy Gay So 98.31%
Kirk Snyder So 97.99%
Carmelo Anthony Fr 93.83%
Dahntay Jones Sr 98.71%
Thaddeus Young Fr 101.53%
Nick Young So 100.61%
Rodney Carney Jr 100.88%
Kelenna Azubuike So 101.45%
Michael Redd So 101.51%
This is generally a good overall group of comps. The tool projects that Barnes will progress, though he will not progress dramatically. By his 4th year in the league, he will be a solid average NBA starter.
Terrence Ross
Player Season Overall Statistical Similarity
Wayne Ellington So 101.28%
Josh Childress So 101.95%
Chase Budinger So 101.96%
Jawad Williams So 102.81%
Rodney Carney So 103.52%
Ryan Anderson So 101.11%
Tayshaun Prince Sr 99.98%
Tamar Slay Sr 99.17%
Demetris Nichols Jr 99.51%
Courtney Lee Jr 99.29%
Terrence Ross is projected to be one of the two biggest stretches in the top 20 picks. His projected production is poor, due mainly to his poor efficiency. Ross should have been picked very late in the first round to the middle of the second round.
Andre Drummond
Player Season Overall Statistical Similarity
Louis Amundson So 99.84%
Robin Lopez So 102.00%
Kelvin Cato Jr 99.09%
Sharone Wright Fr 101.13%
Sean May Fr 96.60%
Ervin Johnson So 96.84%
LaMarcus Aldridge So 94.95%
Antonio McDyess Fr 101.10%
Jon Brockman Fr 100.58%
DeAndre Jordan Fr 99.58%
Drummond has a very diverse set of comps, and he projected to have a decent first 3 years in the league. He has blown well past his projections. He projected to be drafted between #6 & #9, but he has been playing like the #2 overall pick.
Austin Rivers
Player Season Overall Statistical Similarity
Willie Green Jr 101.13%
Antoine Wright So 100.81%
Malik Hairston So 99.27%
Reggie Williams Fr 99.05%
Courtney Lee Fr 97.74%
Chase Budinger So 96.96%
Nick Young Fr 101.30%
Rodney Carney Fr 99.88%
Keith Bogans Jr 99.99%
Maurice Ager Fr 104.96%
The two players who were clearly the biggest stretchs in the top 20 were Terrence Ross, and Austin Rivers, and of the entire top 20 picks in the draft Austin Rivers is projected to be the worst. One of the things I try to do is filter out some comps, if the players had limited NBA careers. The number of fringe NBA player who comped well to Austin Rivers was more than any other player. The reality is that Austin Rivers projects to be a mid to late second round pick at best. Rivers projects to be less productive than even Tyshawn Taylor taken at #41, and Taylor was clearly a mid-second round pick at best. The player most likely to bust in this draft is Austin Rivers, driven mainly by his absolutely horrendous shooting.
Jeremy Lamb
Player Season Overall Statistical Similarity
Kelenna Azubuike So 100.16%
Wayne Ellington So 98.96%
Latrell Sprewell So 98.41%
Manny Harris So 96.31%
Derrick Dial So 99.81%
Arron Afflalo So 101.53%
Rawle Marshall So 99.37%
J.J. Redick So 100.79%
A.J. Guyton So 99.19%
Delonte West So 96.25%
I found the comps to Latrell Sprewell, Wayne Ellington, Manny Harris, Derrick Dial, Rawle Marshall, A.J. Guyton and Delonte West revealing. Jeremy Lamb will disappoint. His best case is Latrell Sprewell, and Sprewell was a classic overrated underachiever.
Kendall Marshall
Player Season Overall Statistical Similarity
Jacque Vaughn So 101.31%
Kevin Ollie Jr 105.97%
Eric Snow Jr 103.00%
Drew Barry So 102.45%
Steve Blake So 103.11%
Chris Duhon So 103.76%
Raymond Felton So 98.99%
Kirk Hinrich So 97.86%
Deron Williams So 100.21%
Jarrett Jack So 97.65%
This is a very interesting group of PG's. This group is generally non-athletic, and generally more effective than people want to give them credit for. As a group they are not stars, but they are efficient, and generally effective.
John Henson
Player Season Overall Statistical Similarity
Chris Wilcox So 100.47%
Dean Garrett Jr 102.40%
Ryan Humphrey Jr 100.53%
Eric Mobley Jr 99.18%
Erick Dampier Jr 99.62%
Sharone Wright Jr 97.41%
Antonio McDyess So 97.74%
Jim McIlvaine Sr 98.77%
Yinka Dare So 99.30%
Charlie Villanueva So 97.96%
John Henson I believe will be a disappoitment long term. He is very inefficient as a shooter, and as a group these players were overall less effective than than first think.
Moe Harkless
Player Season Overall Statistical Similarity
Eduardo Najera Fr 106.58%
Luol Deng Fr 98.51%
Rudy Gay So 97.50%
James Johnson Fr 96.49%
Chris Mills Fr 99.21%
Lamond Murray Fr 98.72%
Wilson Chandler Fr 104.54%
Anthony Randolph Fr 99.01%
Desmond Mason Fr 111.52%
Thaddeus Young Fr 100.35%
Five years from now Moe Harkless will be seen as one of the better picks in this draft. His best overall comp was Desmond Mason as a Jr., and I projected Harkless based upon Mason as a Freshman. This is a generally effective group. Harkless should have been taken 6-8 picks earlier.
Royce White
Player Season Overall Statistical Similarity
Clarence Weatherspoon Fr 101.69%
Jabari Smith So 103.17%
Chris Mills Fr 103.04%
Luke Walton Jr 100.65%
Anthony Bonner Jr 100.79%
Danny Ferry So 102.72%
Lamar Odom Fr 98.63%
Jason Caffey So 102.64%
Stacey Augmon So 98.89%
Grant Hill So 101.06%
Not sure if Royce White will ever play in the league, but if he does he will be a very unique and effective player. If not for the concerns regarding his mental health issues, Royce White should have been drafted in the top-6 to 7.
Tyler Zeller
Player Season Overall Statistical Similarity
Loren Meyer Sr 102.93%
Anthony Avent Jr 101.70%
Alaa Abdelnaby Sr 101.90%
Eric Montross Jr 102.93%
Bill Curley Sr 100.93%
Tony Massenburg Sr 102.27%
Tyrone Hill So 103.03%
Todd Fuller Jr 103.58%
Bison Dele Jr 102.72%
Brian Grant Sr 100.05%
Meyers Leonard comps out as a far more effective player than Tyler Zeller. It is not even close. This is a very mediocre group of comps, and Zeller will be a very mediocre NBA player.
Terrence Jones
Player Season Overall Statistical Similarity
Ansu Sesay Jr 100.06%
Anthony Tolliver So 98.76%
Jerome Moiso So 100.85%
Earl Clark So 101.18%
Samaki Walker Fr 98.91%
Devean George Fr 96.75%
Desmond Mason So 98.43%
Alan Henderson So 99.58%
Jared Jeffries So 99.19%
Donyell Marshall So 95.96%
This is a very underwhelming group of comparables. Terrence Jones comps better than Ross, Rivers and Lamb, and similar to John Henson.
Andrew Nicholson
Player Season Overall Statistical Similarity
Tony Battie Jr 100.11%
Byron Houston Sr 99.91%
Will Perdue Jr 101.97%
Rafael Araujo Sr 98.92%
Paul Davis Sr 100.55%
Brian Grant Sr 100.82%
Carl Landry Jr 100.87%
Todd Fuller Sr 100.83%
Bryant Reeves Sr 101.25%
Tyler Hansbrough Sr 99.43%
Nicholson will be one of the better picks of this draft. He should have been selected 7-8 picks higher. This is a good solid group of NBA players, and Nicholson clearly projects to be a better player than Tyler Zeller, John Henson, Terrence Jones, as well as Lamb, Ross and Rivers.
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior users will need to choose a permanent username, along with a new password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

I already have a Vox Media account!

Verify Vox Media account

Please login to your Vox Media account. This account will be linked to your previously existing Eater account.

Please choose a new SB Nation username and password

As part of the new SB Nation launch, prior MT authors will need to choose a new username and password.

Your username will be used to login to SB Nation going forward.

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Blazer's Edge

You must be a member of Blazer's Edge to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Blazer's Edge. You should read them.

Join Blazer's Edge

You must be a member of Blazer's Edge to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Blazer's Edge. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9347_tracker