FanPost

Who does Meyers Leonard comp to, and what can we expect?

This is post number 2 following the post made earlier today by blazer@birth on Will Barton. This post relates to Meyers Leonard. I hope you find it enlightening. I will attempt to post a Fan Post later tonight regarding Damian Lillard. As my son noted in his post we are planning to launch a blog and this type of analysis will be a big part of what we do, but do plan to do further analysis as well. When we get the site up and running we shall post a link here.

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Meyers Leonard Comparable’s and Predicted Performance

Physical Attributes, Length and Athleticism

Here are Meyers Leonard’s raw measurements of his physical attributes, Length, and athleticism.

Name

Height Inches no Shoes

Height Inches w/shoes

Weight

Body Fat

Hand Length

Hand Width

Reach in Inches

Wingspan Inches

No Step Vert

Max Vert

Sprint

Agility

Bench

Meyers Leonard

83.75

85.25

250

5.7

9.25

11

108

87

30

32.5

3.41

11.34

19

To put that within a scale of 1708 players in the combine list at Draftexpress.com, http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-pre-draft-measurements/, here is where Leonard ranks on a relative basis.

Height Inches no Shoes

Height Inches w/shoes

Weight

Body Fat

Hand Length

Hand Width

Reach

Wing span

No Step Vert Reach

Max Vert Reach

No Step Vert

Max Vert

Sprint

Agility

Bench

Meyers Leonard

76.7%

78.1%

51.4%

84.9%

42.9%

80.0%

73.3%

75.8%

89.5%

86.3%

65.1%

47.2%

66.9%

67.7%

69.2%

How do some of the various attributes compare to someone of similar height and weight?

Name

Amount greater weight than expected (in lbs)

Amount longer wingspan than expected (in inches)

Amount longer reach than expected (in inches)

Amount higher vertical than expected (in inches)

Amount Speed faster than expected

Amount more agile than expected (in sec)

Number of additional bench reps than expected

Meyers Leonard

5

-1.17

-2.62

-1.74

0.19

0.81

5

Where does that place him relative to other players?

Name

Weight to Height percentile

Wingspan to height percentile

Reach to height percentile

Height & weight to no step vertical

H, W, & NSV to 3/4 Speed percentile

H, W, & NSV to agility percentile

H & W to expected Bench Reps percentile

Meyers Leonard

43.70%

46.45%

45.32%

42.44%

80.82%

57.73%

60.71%

What are the main takeaways regarding Meyers Leonard’s physical attributes, length, and athleticism? Leonard is well proportioned height to weight, with a very low body fat % for a player of his size. He is no question a good athlete, well above average in the ¾ court sprint, agility, and bench press reps, extremely fast for a player of his size, certainly has better than average agility and strength. With regards to length, Leonard is slightly below average for a player of his height, having about 5% less length than the average player of his size.

Which NBA players, or draftees are most similar to Meyers Leonard with regards to physical attributes, length, and athleticism? Here is a list of 16 of the most similar (some fringe NBA players, Euro’s, and undrafted or non-NBA players have been excluded).

Name

Total Composite

Physical Attribute

Length

Strength & Athleticism

Meyers Leonard

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

Kwame Brown

94.93%

95.50%

95.33%

93.61%

Channing Frye

93.34%

92.14%

91.33%

95.17%

Tyler Zeller

93.23%

91.68%

92.40%

94.97%

Primoz Brezec

93.14%

94.00%

92.82%

93.10%

Tyler Hansbrough

92.74%

90.57%

92.66%

96.11%

Darko Milicic

92.74%

93.28%

90.99%

92.67%

Enes Kanter

92.51%

92.94%

92.73%

92.69%

Andrew Bogut

92.22%

95.09%

93.82%

88.97%

Blake Griffin

91.82%

92.14%

90.42%

91.23%

Kris Humphries

91.61%

91.68%

91.93%

90.72%

Nene Hilario

91.39%

90.81%

91.73%

91.10%

Al Horford

91.32%

92.05%

91.42%

89.68%

Jeff Pendergraph

91.11%

93.62%

92.58%

87.23%

Drew Gooden

90.92%

91.35%

94.75%

89.72%

David Lee

90.81%

90.76%

92.50%

89.97%

Greg Oden

90.76%

90.45%

87.09%

90.93%

As I go forward and consider the statistical side of this I will not include Kwame Brown, Enes Kanter, Primoz Brezec, Darko Milicic, or Nene Hilario, as none of those 5 players have college stats to compare with, and I won’t include Tyler Zeller because I have no NBA history. Just as an aside, Joel Freeland’s Euro stats comp very well to Primoz Brezec’s, and Zaza Pachulia’s Euro stats.


Top NCAA single season statistical comps to Meyers Leonard Sophomore season 2011-12

Here is a list of a number of the NCAA seasons with the highest statistical similarity to Meyers Leonard’s sophomore season. This has been filtered for players who didn’t play in the NBA, weren’t drafted, played at small programs and were never perceived to be significant prospects, or were at best fringe NBA players. Part of this process, besides hopefully helping me predict future performance, is to help myself and others put players into a context that we can understand and relate to.

Name

Stats Similarity

Season

Class

Meyers Leonard

100.00%

2011-12

So

Jordan Hill

96.74%

2007-08

So

Jeff Pendergraph

94.80%

2007-08

Jr

Taj Gibson

94.29%

2006-07

Fr

Perry Jones

94.25%

2010-11

Fr

D.J. White

94.19%

2006-07

Jr

Patrick O'Bryant

94.19%

2005-06

So

Patrick Patterson

94.12%

2007-08

Fr

Taj Gibson

94.09%

2008-09

Jr

Darrell Arthur

94.05%

2007-08

So

Andrew Nicholson

93.74%

2008-09

Fr

Charlie Villanueva

93.68%

2004-05

So

D.J. White

93.59%

2004-05

Fr

Josh Boone

93.53%

2004-05

So

Andrew Bogut

93.47%

2003-04

Fr

Al Horford

93.42%

2005-06

So

Markieff Morris

93.42%

2010-11

Jr

Marreese Speights

93.40%

2007-08

So


From the list of Physical Similarities and Statistical Similarities, focusing on players who are comparable in more than one season, I come up with this list;

Name

Total Similarity

Stats Similarity

Physical Similarity

Team

Season

Class

Meyers Leonard

100.00%

100.00%

100.00%

Illinois

2011-12

So

Meyers Leonard

86.08%

72.16%

100.00%

Illinois

2010-11

Fr

Al Horford

92.37%

93.42%

91.32%

Florida

2005-06

So

Al Horford

91.84%

92.36%

91.32%

Florida

2006-07

Jr

Al Horford

87.89%

84.46%

91.32%

Florida

2004-05

Fr

Andrew Bogut

92.85%

93.47%

92.22%

Utah

2003-04

Fr

Andrew Bogut

88.48%

84.73%

92.22%

Utah

2004-05

So

Channing Frye

93.15%

92.95%

93.34%

Arizona

2002-03

So

Channing Frye

92.86%

92.38%

93.34%

Arizona

2004-05

Sr

Channing Frye

92.80%

92.26%

93.34%

Arizona

2001-02

Fr

Channing Frye

92.09%

90.84%

93.34%

Arizona

2003-04

Jr

David Lee

91.72%

92.62%

90.81%

Florida

2004-05

Sr

David Lee

91.56%

92.31%

90.81%

Florida

2003-04

Jr

David Lee

91.55%

92.29%

90.81%

Florida

2002-03

So

David Lee

87.82%

84.82%

90.81%

Florida

2001-02

Fr

Jeff Pendergraph

92.96%

94.80%

91.11%

Arizona State

2007-08

Jr

Jeff Pendergraph

92.09%

93.07%

91.11%

Arizona State

2006-07

So

Jeff Pendergraph

92.03%

92.94%

91.11%

Arizona State

2008-09

Sr

Jeff Pendergraph

90.74%

90.37%

91.11%

Arizona State

2005-06

Fr

Jordan Hill

93.17%

96.74%

89.60%

Arizona

2007-08

So

Jordan Hill

88.29%

86.97%

89.60%

Arizona

2008-09

Jr

Name

Stat Similarity

Pts

FG

FG%

FTM

FT%

Off

Def

Rbs

Meyers Leonard

100.00%

So

13.6

5.3

58.4%

2.9

73.3%

2.28

5.91

8.19

Andrew Bogut

93.47%

Fr

12.5

5.1

57.7%

2.2

64.0%

3.21

6.67

9.88

Al Horford

93.42%

So

11.3

4.5

60.9%

2.3

61.3%

2.21

5.36

7.56

Channing Frye

92.95%

So

12.6

5.2

57.0%

2.3

66.3%

2.97

5.06

8.03

Jeff Pendergraph

94.80%

Jr

12.4

4.5

59.3%

3.4

79.3%

2.18

4.24

6.41

Jordan Hill

96.74%

So

13.2

5.4

61.9%

2.4

68.3%

2.47

5.47

7.94

David Lee

92.62%

Sr

13.6

5.0

52.5%

3.6

71.4%

2.44

6.56

9.00


Name

Stat Similarity

Blks

PFs

PER

% Tm Pos

Pts / Pos

FGA / Pos

TS%

S/B/R - 40 min

Meyers Leonard

100.00%

So

1.88

2.94

23.9

18%

1.15

0.77

62%

10.54

Andrew Bogut

93.47%

Fr

1.33

2.42

26.5

19%

1.07

0.76

60%

11.63

Al Horford

93.42%

So

1.7

2.5

26.9

14%

1.15

0.76

62%

10.33

Channing Frye

92.95%

So

1.9

2.7

25.8

13%

1.24

0.89

59%

10.47

Jeff Pendergraph

94.80%

Jr

1.7

3.1

24.7

17%

1.19

0.73

65%

8.5

Jordan Hill

96.74%

So

1.7

3.1

24.5

17%

1.18

0.78

64%

10.09

David Lee

92.62%

Sr

0.8

2.4

25.6

19%

1.06

0.74

57%

10.81

As you can see through this comparison the statistical similarity between Leonard and these 6 players is very strong.

In total Channing Frye is the best comp for Meyers Leonard, as all 4 of his college seasons compares strongly to Leonard. This is the Channing Frye who was untouchable with the Knicks after his rookie year, and who had a solid 3rd season in Portland, not the remade Channing Frye who shoots 6+ 3 pointers a game.

Al Horford is highly similar as a sophomore and junior, less so as a freshman, which indicates he grew in a similar manner to Leonard while in college.

David Lee is another very high and consistent comp for Leonard. All 4 seasons in college have some similarity, but like Horford the one outlier is his freshman season.

Jeff Pendergraph is another excellent comp, with 4 very similar seasons. Pendergraph hasn’t had a great opportunity to get NBA minutes, but in his limited minutes he has been effective, posting a career WS/48 minutes of 0.148.

Overall Andrew Bogut like Leonard played only two seasons of NCAA ball. His two seasons combined have a 90%+ similarity to Leonard. While Bogut has struggled with injuries, and has underperformed for a #1 pick, he should be described as a better than average center.

I believe it is notable that Frye, Lee and Pendergraph had 3 very similar seasons each to Leonard’s sophomore season. If Leonard progresses, then it is reasonable to say that his future performance should exceed these 3 comps.

From the best comparable’s list above we feel good about making the following statements about the best comps for Meyers Leonard.

Best Case - Al Horford, Andrew Bogut

Worst Case - Jordan Hill, Jeff Pendergraph

Fair Comps - Al Horford, Channing Frye, David Lee

Best Comps - Al Horford, David Lee (only because Channing Frye has remade himself)

Meyers Leonard 3 year projection

Season

Shooting Statistics per 36 Minutes

FG

FGA

FG%

3P

3PA

3P%

FT

FTA

FT%

TS%

eFG%

Meyers Leonard

1

5.442

11.238

48.42%

0.012

0.111

10.81%

2.108

3.123

67.50%

51.30%

48.50%

Meyers Leonard

2

5.270

9.720

54.22%

0.010

0.060

16.67%

2.430

3.170

76.66%

58.10%

54.30%

Meyers Leonard

3

5.616

10.615

52.90%

0.015

0.103

14.80%

2.387

3.229

73.91%

56.40%

53.00%

Season

Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes

ORB

DRB

TRB

AST

STL

BLK

TOV

A/TO

PF

PTS

Meyers Leonard

1

3.269

6.836

10.085

1.641

0.816

0.985

1.741

1.09

4.801

13.036

Meyers Leonard

2

2.860

6.740

9.570

1.580

0.660

1.140

1.820

0.83

4.390

13.030

Meyers Leonard

3

3.069

7.353

10.374

1.510

0.758

1.250

1.643

0.89

4.546

13.676

Season

Usage Stats

ORB%

DRB%

TRB%

AST%

STL%

BLK%

TOV%

USG%

Meyers Leonard

1

10.75%

20.85%

15.78%

7.58%

1.22%

1.97%

12.37%

16.95%

Meyers Leonard

2

11.00%

22.00%

17.00%

9.00%

1.00%

2.00%

13.00%

18.00%

Meyers Leonard

3

10.58%

23.50%

16.94%

7.49%

1.20%

2.48%

11.79%

17.46%

Season

Advanced Measurements

PER

ORtg

DRtg

OWS

DWS

WS

WS/48

Meyers Leonard

1

13.294

107.7

106.3

1.5

1.6

3.048

0.089

Meyers Leonard

2

15.120

111.5

106.3

2.9

1.8

4.688

0.120

Meyers Leonard

3

15.474

113.8

105.7

3.2

1.9

5.116

0.121

We are projecting that Leonard will play 22 minutes per game as rookie, 25 in his second year, and 27 in his third year, which is very much in line with progression of minutes for his best comps. Recognize that the stats above are on a 36 minute basis not on a 22-25-27 minute basis. The only stat above where minutes played is relevant is with Win Shares. The Win Shares displayed above is our projection of his actual win shares.

This projection pegs Leonard to be around the 20th best rebounder in the league, based upon a total rebound % of 16.5%, and he would peg at about the same level (20th +/-) as both an offensive and defensive rebounder. His three year block average of 2.15% would make him a below average shot blocker. In aggregate he will be a little above average defender, with a DRtg of about 105. If he makes a leap as a defender it should happen in his 4th and 5th seasons.

As a shooter, Leonard’s 3 year average for FG% of 51.85% would place in the mid to high teens in the league. By his second and third year in the league Leonard should be around 20th in the league in TS%. Overall we project Leonard to be an above average offensive player, hence his generally high ORtg, and WS/48 minutes. His progression will be very good for a young big man, and we believe beginning in his 4th and 5th seasons he will become a clearly above average NBA big man.