This is post number 2 following the post made earlier today by blazer@birth on Will Barton. This post relates to Meyers Leonard. I hope you find it enlightening. I will attempt to post a Fan Post later tonight regarding Damian Lillard. As my son noted in his post we are planning to launch a blog and this type of analysis will be a big part of what we do, but do plan to do further analysis as well. When we get the site up and running we shall post a link here.
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Meyers Leonard Comparable’s and Predicted Performance
Physical Attributes, Length and Athleticism
Here are Meyers Leonard’s raw measurements of his physical attributes, Length, and athleticism.
Name |
Height Inches no Shoes |
Height Inches w/shoes |
Weight |
Body Fat |
Hand Length |
Hand Width |
Reach in Inches |
Wingspan Inches |
No Step Vert |
Max Vert |
Sprint |
Agility |
Bench |
Meyers Leonard |
83.75 |
85.25 |
250 |
5.7 |
9.25 |
11 |
108 |
87 |
30 |
32.5 |
3.41 |
11.34 |
19 |
To put that within a scale of 1708 players in the combine list at Draftexpress.com, http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-pre-draft-measurements/, here is where Leonard ranks on a relative basis.
|
Height Inches no Shoes |
Height Inches w/shoes |
Weight |
Body Fat |
Hand Length |
Hand Width |
Reach |
Wing span |
No Step Vert Reach |
Max Vert Reach |
No Step Vert |
Max Vert |
Sprint |
Agility |
Bench |
Meyers Leonard |
76.7% |
78.1% |
51.4% |
84.9% |
42.9% |
80.0% |
73.3% |
75.8% |
89.5% |
86.3% |
65.1% |
47.2% |
66.9% |
67.7% |
69.2% |
How do some of the various attributes compare to someone of similar height and weight?
Name |
Amount greater weight than expected (in lbs) |
Amount longer wingspan than expected (in inches) |
Amount longer reach than expected (in inches) |
Amount higher vertical than expected (in inches) |
Amount Speed faster than expected |
Amount more agile than expected (in sec) |
Number of additional bench reps than expected |
Meyers Leonard |
5 |
-1.17 |
-2.62 |
-1.74 |
0.19 |
0.81 |
5 |
Where does that place him relative to other players?
Name |
Weight to Height percentile |
Wingspan to height percentile |
Reach to height percentile |
Height & weight to no step vertical |
H, W, & NSV to 3/4 Speed percentile |
H, W, & NSV to agility percentile |
H & W to expected Bench Reps percentile |
Meyers Leonard |
43.70% |
46.45% |
45.32% |
42.44% |
80.82% |
57.73% |
60.71% |
What are the main takeaways regarding Meyers Leonard’s physical attributes, length, and athleticism? Leonard is well proportioned height to weight, with a very low body fat % for a player of his size. He is no question a good athlete, well above average in the ¾ court sprint, agility, and bench press reps, extremely fast for a player of his size, certainly has better than average agility and strength. With regards to length, Leonard is slightly below average for a player of his height, having about 5% less length than the average player of his size.
Which NBA players, or draftees are most similar to Meyers Leonard with regards to physical attributes, length, and athleticism? Here is a list of 16 of the most similar (some fringe NBA players, Euro’s, and undrafted or non-NBA players have been excluded).
Name |
Total Composite |
Physical Attribute |
Length |
Strength & Athleticism |
Meyers Leonard |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
94.93% |
95.50% |
95.33% |
93.61% |
|
93.34% |
92.14% |
91.33% |
95.17% |
|
93.23% |
91.68% |
92.40% |
94.97% |
|
93.14% |
94.00% |
92.82% |
93.10% |
|
92.74% |
90.57% |
92.66% |
96.11% |
|
92.74% |
93.28% |
90.99% |
92.67% |
|
92.51% |
92.94% |
92.73% |
92.69% |
|
92.22% |
95.09% |
93.82% |
88.97% |
|
91.82% |
92.14% |
90.42% |
91.23% |
|
91.61% |
91.68% |
91.93% |
90.72% |
|
91.39% |
90.81% |
91.73% |
91.10% |
|
91.32% |
92.05% |
91.42% |
89.68% |
|
91.11% |
93.62% |
92.58% |
87.23% |
|
90.92% |
91.35% |
94.75% |
89.72% |
|
90.81% |
90.76% |
92.50% |
89.97% |
|
90.76% |
90.45% |
87.09% |
90.93% |
As I go forward and consider the statistical side of this I will not include Kwame Brown, Enes Kanter, Primoz Brezec, Darko Milicic, or Nene Hilario, as none of those 5 players have college stats to compare with, and I won’t include Tyler Zeller because I have no NBA history. Just as an aside, Joel Freeland’s Euro stats comp very well to Primoz Brezec’s, and Zaza Pachulia’s Euro stats.
Top NCAA single season statistical comps to Meyers Leonard Sophomore season 2011-12
Here is a list of a number of the NCAA seasons with the highest statistical similarity to Meyers Leonard’s sophomore season. This has been filtered for players who didn’t play in the NBA, weren’t drafted, played at small programs and were never perceived to be significant prospects, or were at best fringe NBA players. Part of this process, besides hopefully helping me predict future performance, is to help myself and others put players into a context that we can understand and relate to.
Name |
Stats Similarity |
Season |
Class |
Meyers Leonard |
100.00% |
2011-12 |
So |
96.74% |
2007-08 |
So |
|
Jeff Pendergraph |
94.80% |
2007-08 |
Jr |
94.29% |
2006-07 |
Fr |
|
Perry Jones |
94.25% |
2010-11 |
Fr |
94.19% |
2006-07 |
Jr |
|
Patrick O'Bryant |
94.19% |
2005-06 |
So |
94.12% |
2007-08 |
Fr |
|
Taj Gibson |
94.09% |
2008-09 |
Jr |
94.05% |
2007-08 |
So |
|
93.74% |
2008-09 |
Fr |
|
93.68% |
2004-05 |
So |
|
D.J. White |
93.59% |
2004-05 |
Fr |
93.53% |
2004-05 |
So |
|
Andrew Bogut |
93.47% |
2003-04 |
Fr |
Al Horford |
93.42% |
2005-06 |
So |
93.42% |
2010-11 |
Jr |
|
93.40% |
2007-08 |
So |
From the list of Physical Similarities and Statistical Similarities, focusing on players who are comparable in more than one season, I come up with this list;
Name |
Total Similarity |
Stats Similarity |
Physical Similarity |
Team |
Season |
Class |
Meyers Leonard |
100.00% |
100.00% |
100.00% |
Illinois |
2011-12 |
So |
Meyers Leonard |
86.08% |
72.16% |
100.00% |
Illinois |
2010-11 |
Fr |
Al Horford |
92.37% |
93.42% |
91.32% |
Florida |
2005-06 |
So |
Al Horford |
91.84% |
92.36% |
91.32% |
Florida |
2006-07 |
Jr |
Al Horford |
87.89% |
84.46% |
91.32% |
Florida |
2004-05 |
Fr |
Andrew Bogut |
92.85% |
93.47% |
92.22% |
Utah |
2003-04 |
Fr |
Andrew Bogut |
88.48% |
84.73% |
92.22% |
Utah |
2004-05 |
So |
Channing Frye |
93.15% |
92.95% |
93.34% |
Arizona |
2002-03 |
So |
Channing Frye |
92.86% |
92.38% |
93.34% |
Arizona |
2004-05 |
Sr |
Channing Frye |
92.80% |
92.26% |
93.34% |
Arizona |
2001-02 |
Fr |
Channing Frye |
92.09% |
90.84% |
93.34% |
Arizona |
2003-04 |
Jr |
David Lee |
91.72% |
92.62% |
90.81% |
Florida |
2004-05 |
Sr |
David Lee |
91.56% |
92.31% |
90.81% |
Florida |
2003-04 |
Jr |
David Lee |
91.55% |
92.29% |
90.81% |
Florida |
2002-03 |
So |
David Lee |
87.82% |
84.82% |
90.81% |
Florida |
2001-02 |
Fr |
Jeff Pendergraph |
92.96% |
94.80% |
91.11% |
Arizona State |
2007-08 |
Jr |
Jeff Pendergraph |
92.09% |
93.07% |
91.11% |
Arizona State |
2006-07 |
So |
Jeff Pendergraph |
92.03% |
92.94% |
91.11% |
Arizona State |
2008-09 |
Sr |
Jeff Pendergraph |
90.74% |
90.37% |
91.11% |
Arizona State |
2005-06 |
Fr |
Jordan Hill |
93.17% |
96.74% |
89.60% |
Arizona |
2007-08 |
So |
Jordan Hill |
88.29% |
86.97% |
89.60% |
Arizona |
2008-09 |
Jr |
Name |
Stat Similarity |
|
Pts |
FG |
FG% |
FTM |
FT% |
Off |
Def |
Rbs |
Meyers Leonard |
100.00% |
So |
13.6 |
5.3 |
58.4% |
2.9 |
73.3% |
2.28 |
5.91 |
8.19 |
Andrew Bogut |
93.47% |
Fr |
12.5 |
5.1 |
57.7% |
2.2 |
64.0% |
3.21 |
6.67 |
9.88 |
Al Horford |
93.42% |
So |
11.3 |
4.5 |
60.9% |
2.3 |
61.3% |
2.21 |
5.36 |
7.56 |
Channing Frye |
92.95% |
So |
12.6 |
5.2 |
57.0% |
2.3 |
66.3% |
2.97 |
5.06 |
8.03 |
Jeff Pendergraph |
94.80% |
Jr |
12.4 |
4.5 |
59.3% |
3.4 |
79.3% |
2.18 |
4.24 |
6.41 |
Jordan Hill |
96.74% |
So |
13.2 |
5.4 |
61.9% |
2.4 |
68.3% |
2.47 |
5.47 |
7.94 |
David Lee |
92.62% |
Sr |
13.6 |
5.0 |
52.5% |
3.6 |
71.4% |
2.44 |
6.56 |
9.00 |
Name |
Stat Similarity |
|
Blks |
PFs |
PER |
% Tm Pos |
Pts / Pos |
FGA / Pos |
TS% |
S/B/R - 40 min |
Meyers Leonard |
100.00% |
So |
1.88 |
2.94 |
23.9 |
18% |
1.15 |
0.77 |
62% |
10.54 |
Andrew Bogut |
93.47% |
Fr |
1.33 |
2.42 |
26.5 |
19% |
1.07 |
0.76 |
60% |
11.63 |
Al Horford |
93.42% |
So |
1.7 |
2.5 |
26.9 |
14% |
1.15 |
0.76 |
62% |
10.33 |
Channing Frye |
92.95% |
So |
1.9 |
2.7 |
25.8 |
13% |
1.24 |
0.89 |
59% |
10.47 |
Jeff Pendergraph |
94.80% |
Jr |
1.7 |
3.1 |
24.7 |
17% |
1.19 |
0.73 |
65% |
8.5 |
Jordan Hill |
96.74% |
So |
1.7 |
3.1 |
24.5 |
17% |
1.18 |
0.78 |
64% |
10.09 |
David Lee |
92.62% |
Sr |
0.8 |
2.4 |
25.6 |
19% |
1.06 |
0.74 |
57% |
10.81 |
As you can see through this comparison the statistical similarity between Leonard and these 6 players is very strong.
In total Channing Frye is the best comp for Meyers Leonard, as all 4 of his college seasons compares strongly to Leonard. This is the Channing Frye who was untouchable with the Knicks after his rookie year, and who had a solid 3rd season in Portland, not the remade Channing Frye who shoots 6+ 3 pointers a game.
Al Horford is highly similar as a sophomore and junior, less so as a freshman, which indicates he grew in a similar manner to Leonard while in college.
David Lee is another very high and consistent comp for Leonard. All 4 seasons in college have some similarity, but like Horford the one outlier is his freshman season.
Jeff Pendergraph is another excellent comp, with 4 very similar seasons. Pendergraph hasn’t had a great opportunity to get NBA minutes, but in his limited minutes he has been effective, posting a career WS/48 minutes of 0.148.
Overall Andrew Bogut like Leonard played only two seasons of NCAA ball. His two seasons combined have a 90%+ similarity to Leonard. While Bogut has struggled with injuries, and has underperformed for a #1 pick, he should be described as a better than average center.
I believe it is notable that Frye, Lee and Pendergraph had 3 very similar seasons each to Leonard’s sophomore season. If Leonard progresses, then it is reasonable to say that his future performance should exceed these 3 comps.
From the best comparable’s list above we feel good about making the following statements about the best comps for Meyers Leonard.
Best Case - Al Horford, Andrew Bogut
Worst Case - Jordan Hill, Jeff Pendergraph
Fair Comps - Al Horford, Channing Frye, David Lee
Best Comps - Al Horford, David Lee (only because Channing Frye has remade himself)
Meyers Leonard 3 year projection
|
Season |
Shooting Statistics per 36 Minutes |
||||||||||
FG |
FGA |
FG% |
3P |
3PA |
3P% |
FT |
FTA |
FT% |
TS% |
eFG% |
||
Meyers Leonard |
1 |
5.442 |
11.238 |
48.42% |
0.012 |
0.111 |
10.81% |
2.108 |
3.123 |
67.50% |
51.30% |
48.50% |
Meyers Leonard |
2 |
5.270 |
9.720 |
54.22% |
0.010 |
0.060 |
16.67% |
2.430 |
3.170 |
76.66% |
58.10% |
54.30% |
Meyers Leonard |
3 |
5.616 |
10.615 |
52.90% |
0.015 |
0.103 |
14.80% |
2.387 |
3.229 |
73.91% |
56.40% |
53.00% |
|
Season |
Accumulation Stats per 36 Minutes |
|||||||||
ORB |
DRB |
TRB |
AST |
STL |
BLK |
TOV |
A/TO |
PF |
PTS |
||
Meyers Leonard |
1 |
3.269 |
6.836 |
10.085 |
1.641 |
0.816 |
0.985 |
1.741 |
1.09 |
4.801 |
13.036 |
Meyers Leonard |
2 |
2.860 |
6.740 |
9.570 |
1.580 |
0.660 |
1.140 |
1.820 |
0.83 |
4.390 |
13.030 |
Meyers Leonard |
3 |
3.069 |
7.353 |
10.374 |
1.510 |
0.758 |
1.250 |
1.643 |
0.89 |
4.546 |
13.676 |
|
Season |
Usage Stats |
|||||||
ORB% |
DRB% |
TRB% |
AST% |
STL% |
BLK% |
TOV% |
USG% |
||
Meyers Leonard |
1 |
10.75% |
20.85% |
15.78% |
7.58% |
1.22% |
1.97% |
12.37% |
16.95% |
Meyers Leonard |
2 |
11.00% |
22.00% |
17.00% |
9.00% |
1.00% |
2.00% |
13.00% |
18.00% |
Meyers Leonard |
3 |
10.58% |
23.50% |
16.94% |
7.49% |
1.20% |
2.48% |
11.79% |
17.46% |
|
Season |
Advanced Measurements |
||||||
PER |
ORtg |
DRtg |
OWS |
DWS |
WS |
WS/48 |
||
Meyers Leonard |
1 |
13.294 |
107.7 |
106.3 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
3.048 |
0.089 |
Meyers Leonard |
2 |
15.120 |
111.5 |
106.3 |
2.9 |
1.8 |
4.688 |
0.120 |
Meyers Leonard |
3 |
15.474 |
113.8 |
105.7 |
3.2 |
1.9 |
5.116 |
0.121 |
We are projecting that Leonard will play 22 minutes per game as rookie, 25 in his second year, and 27 in his third year, which is very much in line with progression of minutes for his best comps. Recognize that the stats above are on a 36 minute basis not on a 22-25-27 minute basis. The only stat above where minutes played is relevant is with Win Shares. The Win Shares displayed above is our projection of his actual win shares.
This projection pegs Leonard to be around the 20th best rebounder in the league, based upon a total rebound % of 16.5%, and he would peg at about the same level (20th +/-) as both an offensive and defensive rebounder. His three year block average of 2.15% would make him a below average shot blocker. In aggregate he will be a little above average defender, with a DRtg of about 105. If he makes a leap as a defender it should happen in his 4th and 5th seasons.
As a shooter, Leonard’s 3 year average for FG% of 51.85% would place in the mid to high teens in the league. By his second and third year in the league Leonard should be around 20th in the league in TS%. Overall we project Leonard to be an above average offensive player, hence his generally high ORtg, and WS/48 minutes. His progression will be very good for a young big man, and we believe beginning in his 4th and 5th seasons he will become a clearly above average NBA big man.