FanPost

(lengthy post)Surprising/obvious Facts, Truths, OverValue/UnderValue, Money, Investments, and Ideas

PER

avg PER ( Player Efficiency rating) is 15.00 in the NBA. Rebounds help raise this number increasingly.

L.A. had a PER of 22.72 at PF and was the third most efficient at PF.

Batum had a PER of 17.32, ranking 8 at SF

Jamal Crawford had a PER of 15.80 was ranked 13 at SG. (though the number does not accurately reflect his play, he was still considered average!)

Wes$$$ had a PER of 14.12, ranking 29 at SG.

Ray Ray had a PER of 13.46, ranking 43 at PG.

Complete championship teams have most of their starters posting a PER of 16.00 at least. ad their bench guys are average or close to average by a point.

Thats said, everyone else not L.A. and Batum are expendable!.

Our options for SG and SF who post a PER better then 15.00 is shallow compared to PG, PF, C.

Facts about smartly investing in players

Ball-hogging scoring guards like monta Ellis are bad! Their PER may be high but they play no Defense and stall the offense and take too many shots to get their points.

Centers are Over priced no matter what and Overrated.

Surprisingly! Small ball is overrated. teams that finish in the 25% in wins spend their money on premium front court players and less on premium guards despite plenty of bad contracts for bigs. But spending on bigs create the best PER relative to the league median. Gambling on the frontcourt is indicative of a smart front office that understands supply and demand. An average center is worth 4x as much as an above average guard because they are so scarce.

Since 2001-2002, regualr season champs have spent 8.9% more on big men than the avg NBA team.

Rookies are undervalued. and Vets aren't. Teams assume players coming off of a break out season will sustain his play. In reality, the statistical law of gravity calls for regression. They often have emotional ties, and offices always love to spend. Put it together and you have the office paying for players like Amare and Melo. Basically teams tend to overalue investing in vets who are more replaceable then they might seem.

Fools gold starts with the #6 pick. Based on analysis from 1989-2009. The #5 pick is a player who is worth 6.1 EWA (estimated wins added) But that production plummets to 1.9 EWA starting with the #6 pick. Shockingly low. This is an Eric Dampier type player starting at around the #10 pick. Smart GM's he moves lower picks for cap-friendly role players and hold out for superstars worth a max deal. That equals playoffs instead of ping pong balls.

Rookie contracts are undervalued! kryie erving makes 5million where tony makes 12.5million. Rookies are cheap, can play more and longer, improve more, as well as create more wins then the older guys.

Old school centers are becoming a dying breed. Centers now need to be well rounded players, quick, athletic, strong, and versatile! L.A. would he play center, would be a prime example of the new centers, where he to put on some more muscle so he could keep up with them, but also would be able to dominate on the Offense and defense.

IDEAS for at the center.

That said, why not get a PF/C to pair up with L.A. who matches him physically. But is can spread the court and bang!

Anderson Varejo would be an example to go after at PF who can play the center. There are plenty of PF's who are listed as centers though! This would make our frontcourt very versatile, defensively anchored, or won't be as expensive.

Keep JJ. He is good for 10 minutes or more at center and PF.

But if we really need a center, then go after players like Spencer Hawes (PER=18.19,#16) Javal McGee! yes he is a bone head! But he has consistently posted a PER of above 17. In 08-09 he was ranked at 18/PER of 17.04. In 09-10 he stayed put. In 10-11 he had a PER of 17.42 and ranked number 14 of centers. This year he had a PER of 19.90 and ranked at #9 of centers! He is worth his contract.

Next I would love to trade for Joahkim Noah, Greg Monroe or Kosta. Using any of our players and or draft picks. Remember, draft picks statistically, starting at #6, do not produce wins. Maybe a role player if you are lucky.

Guards

There are 4 types of PGs. Not two!

Initiator, Distributor, Pure Facilitator and Scorer.

Numbers and formula's you need to know and understand.

Average Assist ratio is 30.25

Average usage rate is 20.68

Average PPR(pure PG based on assists and TO): 5.30

To find a Point Guard’s player ratings this formula can be used

PlayRtg = USG*(PPG+2.26*APG-TPG)/(FGA+0.44*FTA+APG+TPG) where USG = Usage Rate, APG = Assists Per Game, PPG = Points Per Game, TPG = Turnovers Per Game, FGA = Field Goal Attempts Per Game, FTA = Free Throw Attempts Per Game

Initiator: The basic function of any point guard – comes down the court and gets the team into the offense. They are likely players who just get the job done without taking risks. This type of point guard probably has an average to below average usage rate, average assist ratio and average to below-average pure point ratings.

Example PGs

Rafer Alston, Steve Blake, Mike Conley, Mario Chalmers, Derek Fisher, Luke Ridnour

Distributor: These are the players who have the court vision and ability to find players in scoring position and get them the ball to pick up the assist. They might take a few more risk than the initiator, but also limit egregious mistakes. This type of PG is characterized by a below average usage rate, an above average assist ratio, and an above average PG rating

EX’s be Nash, Caledron, Rondo, Kidd, Chris Duhon,

Pure Facilitator: These are the players who will make the highlight film passes that make you think they have eyes in the back of their heads. They take more risk and might have more turnovers,, they also have the ability to break down a defense and create a scoring opportunity by forcing the defense to shift. This type of point guard is characterized by an above average usage rate, an above average assist ration and above average pure PG rating.

Ex’s be Chris Paul, Tony parker, Deron Williams

Scorers: These are PGs who can break down a defense and score more effectively then the pure facilitator. They have a scoring mindset, but the skills to initiate or distribute. These types are characterized by at or above average usage rates, below average assist ratios, and at or below average pure PG rating.

Ex’s be Andre miller, Derrick Rose, Russell Eestbrook, Monta Ellis

With all this in mind, The best guard's we could pick up this summer off of trade, FA, be:

Kyle Lowrly, Rondo(Fools gold if we are lucky), Dragic, Lou Williams, Lin, Wall, Isiah Thomas, Ramon Sessions, Mike Conley, Tyreke Evans.

Realistically we are looking at Lowry, Dragic, Lou, and Lin for Pgs.

Excellent PG/SG's or 6th man be Tyreke and Mike Conley would could get.

Tyreke Be a STEAL!!! since efficient SG's are shallow and can play either PG/SG.

Side Notes

SF's have a narrow field of efficient players and are better off as role players with role player like contracts. Plus we already have Batum who is an excellent SF.

Our Draft picks (remember the facts for this) could be great in a trade against dumb GMS cough* Sacramento Cough* or be best used trying to trade up in the draft for higher picks. We will most likely find a solid role player with our draft picks. Maybe above average if one of the top 5 picks drop down to us. But their is always some luck in the draft and someone could emerge and be gold for us. They say this is a deep draft. True for picks 1-5. Then its deep because the other players are solid role players who may/can contribute.

This is a post meant to stimulate educated ideas and debates! Go!

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