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Breaking Down Draft History (from 82games.com)

Some excellent analysis in a series from 82games.com:

NBA Player Development "Mini-Series" (2/13)
Building a team through the draft would seem to require making smart picks, and then making smart choices to help the player develop to his full potential. How good a job are NBA teams doing in this regard?
Part I -- Expected Performance by Draft Pick Number
Part II -- Best/Worst Drafting Teams
Part III -- Best/Worst value picks
Part IV -- Performance of NBA drafted players by College
Part V -- Which College Conferences Deliver?
Part VI -- Draft Performance by Year
Part VII -- Coach player development stats (upcoming)
Part VIII -- A new model for player development
Part IX -- Player Reclamation Projects

Where the blazes are after the jump:

Expected Performance by Draft Pick

- Picks 1-5 have high ratings and most likely to become stars, declining substantially 6-10. 11-20 is a crapshoot. But seriously, there are so many examples of busts (Tractor) and diamonds in the rough (Ginoboli). Stockpiling the draft picks at least gives you a higher chance a few may pan out.

Best/Worst Drafting Teams

Portland - in the bottom 25%, might be due to Oden. Top 5 Milwaukee, Phoenix, Lakers, Spurs, Cleveland (er, Lebron).

Draft Performance by Year

Portland actually did really well in 2006 considering how bad the rest of the draft did. Snagged two of the 3 all-stars in the draft. (Rondo would have been nice last couple of years).

- So, what does this tell us for this draft?

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