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How Many Wins to Make the Playoffs?  w/Poll

Nate something interesting (for a change) after the New Orleans win tonight. He said he thought the team needed 38 to 40 wins this season to make the playoffs. Just for fun I looked up a few numbers for the last 10 years.

On average the 8th place (final playoff spot) team in the West won 45.6 games, which is 55.6% of an 82 game season. That equates to winning 37 games in 2012's 66-game season. That's 1-3 fewer games than Nate's estimate, but Nate's estimate appears based on the last 4 years, where the 8th place team in the West won the 66-game equivalent of 37-40 games, and only less than 39 games in one year.

At this very moment the 8th place team in the West has won 55.3% of its games, which is almost exactly the 10 year average. So perhaps this season will not be very different than the average over the last 10 years.

Here's a chart that shows the last 10 years and what record the Blazers would have to achieve over their last 28 games to match the final playoff spot in those years. A 15-13 record would match the worst of the last 10 years (which only happened once) but 16-12 would have done the trick in 5 of the 10 years. On the other hand, they would have to go 18-10 to match the worst record in the last 4 years and 21-7 to match or beat all 4 years.

Finally keep in mind that they have only 12 games remaining at home and 16 games remaining on the road. When you consider that, I don't think it looks too good for the Blazers making the playoffs this year.

But what do you think?

How many wins do you think the Blazers would need to make the playoffs this year and will they do it? Vote in the Poll. Express your reasoning in the comments.


8th Place 8th Place 2012 Remaining Remaining
Year Wins % Wins Wins Losses
2011 46 56.1% 37 18 10
2010 50 61.0% 40 21 7
2009 48 58.5% 39 20 8
2008 50 61.0% 40 21 7
2007 42 51.2% 34 15 13
2006 44 53.7% 35 16 12
2005 45 54.9% 36 17 11
2004 43 52.4% 35 16 12
2003 44 53.7% 35 16 12
2002 44 53.7% 35 16 12
Average 45.6 55.6% 37 18 10
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