The Felton Trade, Linsanity, and the PG Position 1 year from now
by sammymohawk on Feb 9, 2012 2:23 PM PST
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Hindsight is not as valuable as foresight, but it does allow us to gauge the decisions we've made and the opinions we've held. We do this in the hopes that a lesson can be learned and that foresight can be improved as a result.
Recently the Blazers traded the rock solid Andre Miller and a first round draft pick (acquired by trading Rudy Fernandez/Petteri Koponen to DAL) for Raymond Felton. At the time I was in favor of this move. I figured that at worst it would be a small step backwards that wouldn't hurt us big picture...that it would give us a more sustainable option due to age at a position that's been an ongoing nightmare, and that having a better perimeter shooter would be beneficial.
Well, the early returns are in, and I was wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong.
If Ray was shooting the 35% from 3 that I expected from him, which I don't think was unreasonable, things would be a lot better. But alas, his shooting has been horrendous and since Andre Miller does most everything else better it's been almost all negatives without hardly any of the projected positives.
The big picture ramifications of this trade are not as clear as the small picture ramifications are. Certainly our team would be better off this season with that late first round draft pick and Andre Miller at the helm. Then again, maybe Felton's poor play lands us in the lottery. Maybe it spurs the rebuild many have felt is necessary. Maybe it gets us to our real PG solution quicker since Dre wasn't that guy either. Maybe not.
If we could go back and hit the reset button on the 2007 draft knowing what we know now, Kevin Durant is a Blazer. That doesn't mean Oden didn't make sense at the time, just that with the benefit of hindsight it's a no brainer. Similar to this trade, I'm sure we would gladly take it back if we could but the reasoning for it at the time was not necessarily flawed either.
There are many who were opposed to the trade from the outset and I am happy to say to all of you that you were right and I was wrong...Zeus in particular. You all deserve credit for your foresight, even though none of you would have predicted that Felton would be playing some of the worst ball of his career.
Whether it's ultimately a harmful trade in the big picture of the organization remains to be seen or may never be clear...what is clear is that it's put us on a path that is different than the one we would have been on. Whether that path leads us to better places than the one we left we can only hope.
Meanwhile, over in New York, the Knicks are enjoying a win streak courtesy of the stellar play of former NBA novelty Jeremy Lin. It may not last, but man does it hurt to see a guy like that, a guy any team could've had, given the opportunity and explode.
Anyway, this wordy mea culpa about hindsight leads me to the discussion topic of the post which revolves around foresight. I want to know who people think will be the starting PG for the Portland Trailblazers
- after the trade deadline this season
- at the beginning of next season
- at the beginning of the 2012-13 season
So what say you? I guess the odds would be on Felton, Felton, and Felton...or would they? Tell me who you think as well as who you'd like to see. Be as general or specific as you want. Feel free to name trade targets and even upcoming draft picks, and let's see if Nolan Smith still gets any love. Any other comments are welcome too.
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"Hindsight is a funny thing."
Andre Miller and a first round draft pick (acquired by trading Rudy Fernandez/Petteri Koponen to DAL) for Raymond Felton. At the time I was in favor of this move. I figured that at worst it would be a small step backwards that wouldn’t hurt us big picture…that it would give us a more sustainable option due to age at a position that’s been an ongoing nightmare, and that having a better perimeter shooter would be beneficial.
Yup, my thinking as well. I hate being wrong.
My belief is that we look AGAIN for a younger PG who can hit the 3-ball and reasonably distribute. I’m sure we’ll be talking to guys like Aaron Brooks and whatnot. There currently aren’t a lot of guys that I think are perfect for our team’s PG, and I doubt the Warriors trade us Curry for pennies on the dollar (or expiring contracts).
I’d guess that Nolan Smith doesnt stick around long either, as he’s perfect as young trade bait to be thrown out with an expiring contract.
Anyways, a little guy like Nash, Brooks or Curry is probably what we need at PG. Offensive-minded guy who’s defensive liabilities can be filled in admirably by other role-players on the team.
"If you can do a half-assed job of anything, you're a one-eyed man in a kingdom of the blind."
by thankyouforblaze on Feb 9, 2012 2:38 PM PST reply actions
Love Curry but yeah, he'll be pricey
I think if you can swing Nash without giving Nic I’d definitely do that as well, even if only for the remainder of this season. Brooks is kind of a wild card, and to be honest I’m sort of surprised he’s never had a cup of coffee with the Blazers before. I’d be happy to give him a shot though
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
I'll take a stab at how I would do things
- after the trade deadline this season: Rodrigue Beaubois(Acquired in trade to help Dallas clear cap space to go after DWill. because they see they can’t make another title run this year due to lack of talent). This gives Beaubois a small sample size as a full time starter to finish our season. He is our PGOTF in this scenario & we need to get him as comfortable with Aldridge/Batum ASAP.
- at the beginning of next season: Roddy Beaubois…
- at the beginning of the 2012-13 season: Roddy Beaubois !
"We gotta get this $#!^ together guys!" - Phil
by 420Phenom on Feb 9, 2012 3:06 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
I'd be all for it
this season was an experiment going in anyway, and I think if nothing else we have our answer as to whether we want to pencil in Felton long term. Bring in the next contestant! Next week on “Who wants to be the Blazers PG!”
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
Unfortunately it appears
that “Who Wants to be the Blazers GM!” has been cancelled.
"Luke is our go-to Chalupa man," Matthews said. "Designated."
"because they see they can’t make another title run this year due to lack of talent"
I disagree with that. Unlike Portland, Dallas could potentially make a run at another title.
It’s improbable, but not impossible. For the Trail Blazers, though, it’s pretty much impossible.
That aside, Portland doesn’t possess the assets needed to acquire Roddy Beaubois. If Beaubois is dealt, I expected it’ll be in a trade for a rental of Steve Nash. Even now, I still want to witness a reunion — even if it’s a short-lived one — of Dirk and Nash.
Nothing would make me more pleased.
“Between March 1st and March 15th, Dallas could maybe offer up Marion, Odom, Beaubois, and D. Jones to Phoenix for Steve Nash and Grant Hill — who both have expiring contracts — then go make a run at Dwight Howard and Deron Williams this summer.
DALLAS
C: Brendan Haywood (28 m.p.g.)
PF: Dirk Nowitzki (32 m.p.g.)
SF: Grant Hill (24 m.p.g.)
SG: Jason Kidd (18 m.p.g.)
PG: Steve Nash (30 m.p.g.)
C: Ian Mahinmi (20 m.p.g.)
PF: Brandan Wright (16 m.p.g.)
SF: Vince Carter (24 m.p.g.)
SG: Jason Terry (30 m.p.g.)
PG: Delonte West (18 m.p.g.)
C: Sean Williams (0 m.p.g.)
PF: Brian Cardinal (0 m.p.g.)
SF: Yi Jianlian (0 m.p.g.)
PHOENIX
C: Marcin Gortat (32 m.p.g.)
PF: Channing Frye (20 m.p.g.)
SF: Shawn Marion (28 m.p.g.)
SG: Jared Dudley (28 m.p.g.)
PG: Roddy Beaubois (20 m.p.g.)
C: Robin Lopez: (12 m.p.g.)
C/PF: Markieff Morris (16 m.p.g.)
PF: Hakim Warrick (16 m.p.g.)
SF: Lamar Odom (20 m.p.g.)
SG: Michael Redd (12 m.p.g.)
SG/PG: Shannon Brown (12 m.p.g.)
PG: Ronnie Price (12 m.p.g.)
PG: Sebastian Telfair (12 m.p.g.)
SF: Josh Childress (Inactive)
SG: Dominique Jones (Inactive)"
http://www.blazersedge.com/2012/2/8/2784993/espn-blazers-rank-no-13-in-future-power-rankings#91367228
That’s a win-win for Dallas and Phoenix.
"I Am Mine"
Heh
Dallas could potentially make a run at another title.
They still don’t have a Tyson Chandler replacement. Who was the real reason why Dirk & the Mavericks were able to finally do something meaningful in beating the Blazers, Lakers, Thunder & Heat. While this deal would make them a terror on offense, it would be negated by no post defense. I don’t think that team would make the WCF.
I would argue a healthy Marcus Camby & Gerald Wallace at the trade deadline would provide a better addition to the Dallas roster for a playoff run, over Steve Nash/Grant Hill(Though I too would like to see a Nash/Dirk novelty reunion). Wallace/Camby provide much needed defense & rebounding.
Also consider our players provide more cap space for 2012 & we are only currently 3 games ahead of Phoenix in the WC so the draft situation is far from predictable with our picks.
"We gotta get this $#!^ together guys!" - Phil
"Wallace/Camby provide much needed defense & rebounding."
I disagree, as Dallas already has its own Gerald Wallace in Shawn Marion; also, Marcus Camby is a poor fit next to Dirk Nowitzki. Alongside Dirk, a center should be a low-post presence on both offense and defense. Camby, however, is a high-post player on offense, as well as a weakside shot blocker and rebounder on defense.
For Portland’s sake, a Haywood/Beaubois/D. Jones for Camby/Johnson & Johnson swap is a scary one due to Haywood’s lengthy contract. I also doubt that Dallas would do it, since they could stay the course and amnesty Haywood in July.
A Marion/Beaubois for Crash trade may make more sense, but that’d be a risky move for Dallas due to Wallace not being guaranteed of opting out. Likewise, it’s doubtful Portland would want to take on an extra year or two of Marion, 33, just to get Beaubois.
Back to Dallas, it’s currently 18th in offensive efficiency and 7th in defensive efficiency. It’s an overall average rebounding team, too. Because of that, Steve Nash would help more than anyone if Dallas’ goal is to make one more run this season and, subsequently thereafter, try to restock this summer.
"I Am Mine"
Love to see a back court of Nash/Kidd
that would be sick
Oh, I still take Felton in the poll though
life on the line I’ll go with the experience
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
I don't know. Life on the line and he dribbles it off his foot, gonna need two caskets.
"Per John Hollingers twitter - Over the final 12:45 of today's game, Brandon Roy's PER was 84.98" GM 4 vs Mavs
by blazinagain on Feb 9, 2012 3:33 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
it's not an easy decision
but I figure I’d post myself up, maybe run some pick and pops…I know Ray’s game better so my thought process is that I’d be able to play better with him than my doppelganger would with Lin.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
Virtually anyone but Felton
Felton should be the Rich Cho of PG’s…you know it won’t work long term so why not end it now.
Felton perplexes me...
He was an all-star snub last year. What happened? I know he played in New York, but good players are good players in any system.
I loved Dre, and I was excited to bring in Felton too. I supported the trade fully. I expect he’ll bounce back, I think it’s a matter of trying to do much, but it still leaves me bamboozled.
"Brandon Roy has done this before."
I am not sure that the following is true...
I know he played in New York, but good players are good players in any system.
Yes he played in New York, but I don’t thing every good player fits in any system.
LaMarcus All-Stardridge - 2012 All-Star Reserve!!!!
THE LAMONSTER ERA IS NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Shoot Felton and make it a game of 2 on 1
Who’s going to be our starting PG after the deadline? Probably Jamal Crawford.
At the beginning of next season? Hard telling. DJ Augustin, Mo Williams, Kirk Hinrich, Goran Dragic, and Ramon Sessions seem like feasible candidates. Not saying I want any or all of them, but I can see those scenarios playing out.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
haha...no shooting Felton allowed
besides, that would make it 1 on 2 and you wouldn’t want that.
The other option I considered for those confident in their basketball abilities would be to take your doppelganger and play against Felton and Lin…I don’t think it would be wise, but something to consider.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
sounds like your answer is to take Lin as your teammate and play against your doppelganger and Felton
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
Basically, except that I'm so bad at bball that my doppleganger could potentially be better than me
He certainly can’t be any worse.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
The thing that irked me when the Felton trade happened was that realistic foresight was often countered by “nobody knows.” True, nobody knows, but I’d like the franchise decisions to be centered around the available data instead of hoping Felton becomes an all-star after a bizarre statistical year.
“Nobody knows” is kind of my pet peeve.
Since Chad Buchanan has been involved
in a lot of the bad decisions that the Blazers have made, he is the first guy I’d get rid of! Nolan Smith is just another Armon Johnson to me just slightly better but he will never be an NBA starter. As much as it pains me to watch them lose, I am glad the team is falling apart and I hope we make the lottery. It will all be in vain though unless they get a STRONG GM someone who can stand up to Paul Allen and take control of the team. I’m beginning to think AK is right and a complete rebuild with everything on the table as the only way forward. I would keep Aldridge and put everything else on the block.
I was against the Miller Felton trade and I’d even consider signing him back. Miller was my favorite Blazer. That spreading the court BS was just that! Miller could shoot from anywhere on the court from any direction just not 3 point range. His FG% was right there with Roy, Ray Allen, and Kobe. Guys like Batum and Wesley Matthews are suppose to spread the court. Why isn’t Babbitt out there spreading the court? My point is that you don’t have to have a spread the court PG if you have someone dishing out assists (ie Rondo). That whole spread the court thing was a design with Roy in mind and he’s gone. If signing Miller again meant firing McMillan well I’d go for it. I’m not against keeping McMillan through his contract but a fresh start there wouldn’t hurt my feelings either. I know Miller is not the ‘answer’ at Point Guard but short of something else appearing he would probably still be be a good value.
The fantasy BB spin from ESPN:
Miller posted 11 points, seven rebounds, six assists, and one steal during Denver’s loss to Dallas on Wednesday night.
Spin: Miller continues to put up solid numbers night in and night out coming off the bench and should still be considered as a viable back-up point guard in most leagues. He finished 3-of-5 from the field, including 1-of-2 from 3-point land, and 4-of-4 from the line.
I like Miller a lot, don't get it twisted
but spreading the floor ain’t BS. We just haven’t seen it because Felton’s shot terribly, but forcing the defense to extend to the perimeter so that an effective post player has more time and space to work with, or being able to make the defense pay if they do collapse, is a valuable thing.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
I know spreading the floor is important,
I’m just saying it doesn’t have to fall on the point guard and in fact he should mainly be setting up the offense and dishing out assists just like Miller did so well.
In today's game, spreading the floor is an important skill for a 1 to possess.
While Tony Parker and Rajon Rondo are counterexamples who’ve shown it’s not a necessity, they’re nevertheless exceptions to the rule.
Who would you suggest that is willing to come to Portland?
I usually look out the assists average. How many Deron Williams are there and like you say he probably wouldn’t come here. Some are shooters some are setters but usually not both.
You're helping to make my point
Spin: Calderon is one of the league’s most distinct pass-first point guards, and tonight’s game was a clear depiction of that. He currently ranks sixth in the NBA with 8.3 assists-per-game, but he scores just 9.5 points-per-game.
I know he shoots fairly well from three avg around .350.
He's their best perimeter player though, so his percentages are down
With a little motivation and a guy like LA who can collapse the defense, Calderon should be able to get back to shooting close to 50-40-90. For his career, he shoots 38% from 3, and 88% from the line (which is usually a good indicator of shooting ability).
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
That sort of gets us back to the first problem
of how to get him here. Looks like Wallace and say one of Babbitt, E Will or N Smith. I can’t imagine why Toronto would want that? If I was a team I’d take a second look at Elliot but it looks to me like a lateral move that doesn’t really help them especially rebuilding unless they really saw the potential of Elliot. It seems like we don’t even know that..
I didn't read the Calderon FanPost
But I think Calderon should be available for Felton and a pick. His contract is not great, his market is small, and Toronto could use the cap flexibility. I mean, at one point, they almost traded him to Charlotte for Eric Dampier’s non-guaranteed contract (MJ pulled out of that, iirc).
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
It shouldn't even take a pick.
Simply Felton for Calderon ought to be enough, as Toronto would save on salary.
well, considering Wes has decided that open 3s aren't a shot he wants to take anymore...
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
Go back to the 2007 draft?
Dude, if I had a do over I’d go back to the 2005 draft. Pass on Paul & Williams because of Telfair and then draft Jack? !?!?!?
if that happens then we don't get a shot at Durant in 2007, which goes to my point about the unseen consequences of decisions
But regardless, I did allude to that draft in the lead-in
that Chris Paul, Deron Williams, or even Andrew Bynum would have much better selections than Martell Webster
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
Nice mea culpa.
I, too, have got a mistake to admit, with that being how I wrongly thought Nolan Smith would come in here and be Portland’s version of George Hill.
I was wrong about that.
"I Am Mine"
I think maybe the biggest difference there is Gregg Popovich
he really seems to do well with guiding his younger players and giving them a certain amount of trust and reasonable expectations.
"Wide, girthy. Just like a Rhino. Sometimes my horns are visible."
Yeah, Popovich gives young players a longer leash.
Although I don’t think it’s all bad with McMillan and young players, he’s certainly not the person you want coaching young point guards. With bigs and wings, he can be fine. Not point guards, though, since he’s too demanding and has flashbacks of a rookie Payton taking his job — and rightfully so — back in 1990.
"I Am Mine"
George Hill
Has the length to defend taller shooting guards. If Nolan had the defensive versatility to be able to play in Nate’s SoS defense I think he would see a few more minutes. Furthermore, Hill had the benefit of playing with one of Parker and Ginoble on offense. I think Nolan would do well if he were eased into the game by being played along side a competent ball handler that can initiate the offense. The problem with our roster for Nolan is the logjam at the three that is spilling over into shooting guard. Remove one of Batum, Wallace, Matthews and that would give Nolan the opportunity to play along with a second ball handler. Perhaps improving the team by virtue of playing more balanced lineups alone. Now the thing is, you don’t want either Nolan or Jamal guarding those big, dynamic wings.
Yup, the Blazers simply lack the talent needed to compete.
by Oden Mad, Oden Smash! on Feb 10, 2012 5:14 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
That's a great assessment on Nolan Smith and his situation, especially the part about him ...
needing a second ball handler beside him to maximize his skills. A backup shooting guard with wing size and facilitating skills — which the Spurs have got in Gary Neal — would be the perfect backcourt mate for Smith.
"I Am Mine"
When the Spurs rebuild I want Manu for his last years.
by Oden Mad, Oden Smash! on Feb 10, 2012 7:43 AM PST up reply actions
If they keep on digging up great players this deep in the draft
They probably won’t even need to rebuild
"Wide, girthy. Just like a Rhino. Sometimes my horns are visible."
"They probably won’t even need to rebuild"
I wouldn’t go that far. Soon enough, San Antonio will need to somehow acquire a new elite player in a few years when Tim Duncan hangs it up and Manu Ginobili declines.
Yeah. I thought splitter would be that guy a while ago.
Maybe he still can be, but probably not. Whatever the rebuilding period is, it won’t be very long.
"Wide, girthy. Just like a Rhino. Sometimes my horns are visible."
nolan has literally done
nothing well in his limited minutes. I don’t see a need to play him more.
Nolan hasn't looked bad, especially in his most recent appearance
I don’t think he’s had enough of a chance for us to say definitively yet
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
Much to my dismay, he hasn't looked good.
For Nolan, I think he unfortunately ended up in a bad situation.
but even attributing his bad play to circumstance
is pretty optimistic. As much as I was hoping for some sort of backup role as third string PG (or second), he’s currently looking like a 2 as much as he is a 1.
The main problem is that Nolan’s court vision is lacking, and now I’m second-guessing his BBIQ.
"If you can do a half-assed job of anything, you're a one-eyed man in a kingdom of the blind."
by thankyouforblaze on Feb 11, 2012 3:48 PM PST up reply actions
His BBIQ was fine at Duke, so that's not it.
But yeah, Nolan isn’t a pure point guard. He’s a 1/2 combo, but so is George Hill. Heck, Darren Collison even played some 2 at New Orleans as a rookie.
If given extended minutes, I think Nolan would pleasantly surprise.
big difference is that Pop gets good young players from the draft
i’m pretty sure he wouldn’t be playing Armon, Nolan, or babbit too much
"Lin acknowledged that the workouts were 'one on one or two on two or three on three, and that’s not where I excel. I’ve never played basketball like that.'"
from his wiki page
read a lot about lin last night
because my roommate is asian and is really excited about him. i thought he was going to be good when he was with the warriors. he is not better than felton and i think me and felton would kill me and lin. and based on the above quote, lin would make excuses afterwards.
by permaswoon on Feb 10, 2012 12:13 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
ONe thing I'm sure of is that who ever our PGOTF is going to be
he’s currently playing in the NBA. It won’t be someone drafted. And too add, I really doubt it’s going to be someone in their 2nd year. Looking at you Nolan.
Being a Blazer fan is not exactly healthy.
I noticed
Jeremy Lin is now #1 in PER for point guards and a former #1 Kyle Lowery has dropped clear down to #11.
Lin's production will drop
as teams scout for him. Plus, he is already turning the ball over a ton! Not saying he isn’t going to be a player in the league, just that he is way hyped right now and will fall off considerably when teams game-plan for him
plus when Amare/Carmelo return his opportunities go way down as a scorer
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
I get the feeling that D'Antoni is secretly super happy that melo is gone
and he can go back to his fast-paced ball-movement offence.
"Wide, girthy. Just like a Rhino. Sometimes my horns are visible."
The numbers will drop
BUT they will stay solid. Have you watched this kid play? He definitely looks for real. I imagine his pick and roll game will be really good with Amare when he comes back.
Way to man-up this post
There are many who were opposed to the trade from the outset and I am happy to say to all of you that you were right and I was wrong…Zeus in particular
Even though it wasn’t necessary. We’re all right and wrong about certain things. As an avid Dre supporter, I always knew how good and under appreciated he was. The man has a 18 PER in 1000 career games, which is playing at 2 or 3 paces below borderline All-Star for a long time. And he was decently defensely too, using those same old-man skills that’s kept him productive in the league on offense. Felton is at 14.3 PER in 400 something games, so the difference was pretty clear.
And Felton has never been a good shooter really, so I don’t know why people would expect that to change. 41% & 31% career is pretty nasty as is, and even worse when you consider what his percentages are beyond 16 feet.
Anyway good post. Lets hope management doesn’t compound the problem by extending him beyond backup PG money. Ideally, I would rather release him as he probably wouldn’t except a backup role and if so, would probably be out of shape and sulking over the big contract that never came.
Henne is the greatest and the Dolphins will go 14-2 this year and win the SB
And I'm CONVINCED The Blazers passed on Faried because of that trade
We could have used Faried like a dry grass needs the summer rain. I’ve seen him play a couple times this year and he’s very athletically gifted. He going to be a quality bench player or defensive/rebounding specialist starter in this league. ANother reason to hate the trade.
Henne is the greatest and the Dolphins will go 14-2 this year and win the SB
Yeah, I was pretty pissed off about that part as well.
Not to mention that I wouldn’t be surprised if Dre had another 2 or 3 good years left in him.
Felton will likely stay average so I think we are better off signing someone for cheap if we cannot get someone like Deron, Nash, etc. Heck, I’d rather give Dre a 2 year contract over Felton. (Not that I would, as I’d rather blow it up if we can’t grab an elite free agent with our cap space)
The cake was a lie.
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