Hollinger Playoff Odds Pick Blazers as Western Champs?

For the moment, the Blazers have the second best Finals percentage and the best in the West.

4 months ago jstamp26 11 comments 0 recs |

Comments

yeah i noticed this too. seems kinda weird.

better chance of both making the finals and becoming the champs then the heat? im not a heat fan but i somehow doubt it. im sure there’s some explanation but even as a usually optimistic blazer fan these stats seemingly are way off.

by Jpar on Feb 6, 2012 7:34 AM PST reply actions

Just saw this as well

OKC has best chance of winning division, but we have 25.8% chance of finals versus their 13.8%. We have a 13.6% of a championship vs their 5.6%.

Not sure why Hollinger is down on OKC (even Denver and San Antonio have better finals chances). I think this may be a little wacky as the +20 win versus Denver, and the other recent beatdowns at home have raised our point differential abnormally high. Hollinger weights point differential highly in his metrics.

We went from #4 to #2 in Hollingers power rankings. I would take all this with a huge grain of salt.

by bengance on Feb 6, 2012 7:44 AM PST reply actions

OKC hasn’t had an impressive point differential all season. Their margin of victory in wins is really small at +8.9.

When Portland wins, they win big with an average margin of victory in wins of +16.3.

Hollinger’s playoff odds, and any other statistical playoff odds, simply uses point differential adjusted for number of home/road games and strength of opponent to project future wins. A relatively low point differential for OKC is why Denver and Portland have been around OKC’s level in statistical power rankings all season.

by poster on Feb 6, 2012 8:15 AM PST up reply actions

Just saw this.

I’ll take it when I can get it.

"These are dreams that we have." --Rudolfo Fernandez

by bfan on Feb 6, 2012 7:55 AM PST reply actions 1 recs

Well if we made the finals and didnt have homecourt we would have 3 straight at the Rose Garden lol which would be a huge advantage

Im not a Hollinger fan AT ALL but I like our chances against anyone in the West and anyone in the east with the way the finals format is setup especially

by Willie Beamon on Feb 6, 2012 8:50 AM PST reply actions

sorry, have to disagree there

2-3-2 format strongly favors the team with homecourt. the team with 3 in the middle is at a huge DISadvantage

"But if Ding Dongs and prime rib were the path to NBA pivot stardom we'd all be wearing the uniform." -Dave

by douglast on Feb 6, 2012 10:08 AM PST up reply actions

LOL-- HOLLINGER

not that I don’t like what he’s done for stats, but he sure comes up with some ridiculous bull$#!% from time to time

"If you can do a half-assed job of anything, you're a one-eyed man in a kingdom of the blind."

by thankyouforblaze on Feb 6, 2012 9:36 AM PST reply actions

Outliers and small sample sizes can do that

But, yeah, our low eFG% is going to catch up to us, once teams start to figure out Nate’s defense and the Blazers’ legs get tired.

Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!

by HailOden! on Feb 6, 2012 12:25 PM PST up reply actions

it's automated but there is something to take from it

We have a great deal of flexibility. Need rebounding? Go big with Nico at 2 and Camby at 5. Need ball handling? Bring Jamal in at 2 with Ray at the 1. Need outside shooting? Bring Nico and Wes in together. Need ridiculous scoring and pace? Go “small” with LMA at 5 and Crash at 4.

If Ray and We$ get their shot back and we find a way to not freak out on the road we are a ridiculously good team.

by poorwebguy on Feb 6, 2012 9:50 AM PST reply actions

It's skewed because Hollinger puts extra weight on the last 10 games, which include the Bobcats blowout.

"Say his NAME, Portland. Gerald Wallace is...awesome." -Dave, 4/9/11

by austinpwnz on Feb 6, 2012 11:28 AM PST reply actions

It also takes strength of schedule into account, though.

So the 40 pt blowout doesn’t count for much, and losses like the one to Sacto count for more. If anything, the Denver win skews things more than the blowouts against bad teams.

Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!

by HailOden! on Feb 6, 2012 12:32 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs