"Give Him The Max!" --- A Realistic Discussion On Nic Batum
by thankyouforblaze on Feb 4, 2012 10:39 PM PST
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PrintLet me preface this by saying Nic Batum had an excellent game against Denver, which was one of the reasons an analytical discussion of Batum was necessary on this site.
So far, Batum has not been the consistent 30-point threat that we all wish he would be, let alone 20-point threat. This is Nic's 4th year in the league, and though he has seemingly improved over that span, it has not been to the tune that the World Championships have shown he's capable of playing. His time in France has signified that (1) he's capable of playing shooting guard; (2) playing high minutes; and (3) leading a team to success (i.e. the absence of Tony Parker for Team France).
Currently, Nic is averaging just under 12 points, 43% shooting (41% from the 3pt line), 4.2 rebounds, 1 assist, and 0.8 blocks a game. His PER is in the high teens (north of 17), and for the most part, he has been rather efficient in his time on the court. That said, he's currently making $2.15 million this season, and is a real bargain for a team with 3 guys making over $9.5 million a year. To gain a greater grasp of his efficiency, he had 6.6 win shares last season attributed to him, whereas LaMarcus had 11.1 win shares. LA is making $12.8 million this year.
Though Nic is young (23 years old) and has only been in the league for 4 years, it is very likely that we have seen 95% of what Nic can bring to the court. Not only has Nic been playing NBA ball, but he's been playing in the World Championships for years, and had started his basketball career playing for LeMans in France (rather than, say, playing some college ball with scrubs). So even though some might attribute an uber-High ceiling to Batum, we should likely hedge our bets and expect a bit more production, but not much.
Batum is shooting a career high from the 3pt line at 41%, but his career numbers are closer to 36%. His scoring is on par with his career per-minute averages; his blocks, assists, steals, and turnovers are all right in line as well.
The problem I see is that after this season, Batum will likely receive 4 to 5 times his current salary per year, going from a little over $2 million to closer to $8 to $10 million a year, for 4 or 5 years. Does this level of production, which has been consistent with his career averages, demand that much money a year?
Though we all love Batum and hope he rises with us, the thing we have to ask is:
How much do we give to the man who's efficiency, effort, and production will probably not gain more than a 10% increase across the board, though he will gain a 400% increase in salary?
If you feel that Batum deserves the $10 million he is almost guaranteed to receive (maybe closer to $8 or $9 mil) per year, maybe you're right. If you feel that we should trade Batum while his perception is at an all-time high, maybe you're right too. The question I am posing to you all is:
What do we expect from Batum's numbers in the future, &
What do these numbers demand in terms of salary?
Please feel free to comment below & agree or disagree with the statements I have made. I have kept this short and simple, so fill in the blanks that I have missed to paint a better picture of the situation. Lastly, please keep the discussion civil, as arguments involving the Blazers are always hot and heavy. This is a place to gain insight and opinions that aren't necessarily your own, so please refrain from bickering, name-calling, and senseless optimism (lol) ;)
(Will this guy EVER reach his ceiling?)
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We can't extend him anymore.
We have to wait until free agency to offer him any sort of offer (well other than the qualifying offer).
my point being, he stays on the team, even if it is not an actual "extension."
It’s an extension of his playing on the Blazers.
Semantics is not what I was hoping to argue in this post.
"If you can do a half-assed job of anything, you're a one-eyed man in a kingdom of the blind."
by thankyouforblaze on Feb 4, 2012 10:48 PM PST up reply actions
Rather than argue your misuse of terminology, why not just edit your post
to say “re-sign” rather than “extend”.
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Feb 4, 2012 10:52 PM PST up reply actions
already have ;)
"If you can do a half-assed job of anything, you're a one-eyed man in a kingdom of the blind."
by thankyouforblaze on Feb 4, 2012 10:52 PM PST up reply actions
Well now my slighty rude comment looks even more rude.
Sorry, that didn’t come out more negative than it should have.
haha, it's all good my friend.
Make sure you vote in the Poll above!
"If you can do a half-assed job of anything, you're a one-eyed man in a kingdom of the blind."
by thankyouforblaze on Feb 4, 2012 11:09 PM PST up reply actions
Offer him 5 years 35 million.
If he refuses let him test the open market and don’t match anything over 5 years 45 million…
I love Batum, he’s my favorite player currently on the Blazers, but he does have limitations that should prevent him from getting an average of 8 figure a year salary.
Of course, I can totally see a team like New Jersey desperately throwing 11 million a year at Batum if they strike out on the Dwight Howard sweepstakes.
The smarter you are, the more likely you are to be tripping balls at any given moment.
/keep Batum/ /trade for Bogut/
Not extending Batum was probably the best thing that could happen to him and the Blazers.
He will probably now develop the aggressiveness that we have always wanted to see from him while he tries to earn a bigger offer sheet or bigger offer from the Blazers. It’s a win-win.
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Feb 4, 2012 10:49 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
that is the most dead-on comment I have read in a while concerning Batum.
as Timmay so eloquently said in the gameday-thread earlier tonight:
If he earns the 9-10 million, they’ll be happy to pay it
If not, they won’t. They may have a tough decision with Nic. I think they’ll go as high as 9 or 10 on a match. I’m not really worried about it. Worst case scenario is he leaves, and we have more cap space.
"If you can do a half-assed job of anything, you're a one-eyed man in a kingdom of the blind."
by thankyouforblaze on Feb 4, 2012 10:56 PM PST up reply actions
He took two crazy "turn-around 3-pt shots" shots tonight while making NINE others.
I was laughing so hard I almost fell off my chair. I could hear Nic Crawford (ah, make that Batum) saying to himself: “You want aggressive, I’ll show you aggressive!”
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Feb 4, 2012 11:01 PM PST up reply actions
yeah, those stop and pop 3pt attempts while he wasn't even facing the hoop
made me think he has decided he’ll earn this next contract no matter what it takes.
Nical Crawtum.
"If you can do a half-assed job of anything, you're a one-eyed man in a kingdom of the blind."
by thankyouforblaze on Feb 4, 2012 11:04 PM PST up reply actions
For all it's thrown around
I doubt you could find a single blogger arguing to give Batum the max.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
Give him 6 to 7 million. 8 I can live with. 9 is stretching it but 10 is overpaying.
He has a limited skill set just as Matthews does. Perimeter scorer. Can’t do much of the dribble. I would even argue Matthews is the better defender at this point. Stats favor Matthews too but Batum has tremendous length which one would assume would give him the edge (especially since he guards mainly smaller players) but he doesn’t play a huge factor on that end of the floor.
it would be a bargain to get him for under $7mil.
however…
He has a limited skill set just as Matthews does.
exactly. I’d really rather not spend $10mil on Batum, unless he makes these Denver-type games more of a regularity and less of a rare occurrence.
"If you can do a half-assed job of anything, you're a one-eyed man in a kingdom of the blind."
by thankyouforblaze on Feb 4, 2012 11:08 PM PST up reply actions
I think a few factors played into Nic's game tonight.
One being Crawford actually showing he had some court vision and hitting Nic when he worked to get open. In the past Jamal just seemed to have tunnel vision aimed at the hoop.
Second, once the team realized Batum was heating up, they ran some sets for him. This kind of plays into another point that Nic wasn’t just content with chilling in the corner waiting for the ball.
I’ll hold my judgments till the season is over though. Consistency is key. He doesn’t have to put up huge number for him to be worth 8 million per year. Just needs to stop showing flashes of being starter material and show that he can do it night in and night out.
by FPS NorthWest on Feb 4, 2012 11:31 PM PST up reply actions
+1
sometimes i wonder how many of the posters here actually watch
by ripcitymilehigh on Feb 5, 2012 8:31 AM PST up reply actions
His current limits are known
Basically :
his post up game
his drive, especially with his left hand.
Did he improve in those fields ? Hell yeah. He is nowhere near the clueless player that was not playing/misplaying the mismatch against nash fisher and alike. He still has a lot to work on, especially against forwards, but in the past he posted guys like odom.
About driving to the rim, he did improve but it will be probably his main limit as i don’t think he has the body control to finish to the rim with efficiency.
On the other hand, considering he only had one year to develop his midrange game, and considering how he improved, i find it hard to suggest he can’t make any significant step further. LMA had a stellar second half of the season last year, turning into LA monster after being the usual "LA softie " during the first games (second half of the Dallas game starting everything, or him playing significant mn at the C last year).
Obviously nic i not all star material for plenty of reasons. But he has the tools to keep improving his midrange game, as long as the team (and mc millan..) is relying on it. He won’t be the “next G Wall” with a reliable jumper for sure, hell, we would not have that topic otherwise since he would have his contract already.
But he could become a mismatch nightmare and has much more upsides behind lma than any other player in this team. As well as a pretty good complimentary player to both LMA and whoever will replace roy in the line up. As long as he is really developed and being part of an offense scheme (which does not turn him into a tall steve kerr, as he is not a 3 point shooter even if he was making 50%+ of them).
The next game against okc will be pretty interesting as both matthews and batum will have to check westbrook and durant – +harden for wes most likely – , knowing that okc will come to win badly after their loss against the spurs and their need to tie the serie.
I don’t expect nic to keep his efficiency behind the 3 pt line, but i strongly think he will have a nice impact defensively, as long as he stays out of foul trouble. I am still waiting to see a good game from matthews against okc’s guards on the other hand (defensively).
Oh..
And i picked the 4th option (match if it’s reasonable) as i don’t think he should get more than 7/8M per year on a 4 year contract.
But i highly doubt that the blazers offered him such a contract during last negotiations, more like a 20Mish 4 years contract.
30/4years would be perfect for both sides imo.
my guess is the Blazers offered around $6.5 million and Batum's people said $9.5 million
and neither budged much.
"If you can do a half-assed job of anything, you're a one-eyed man in a kingdom of the blind."
by thankyouforblaze on Feb 5, 2012 12:17 AM PST up reply actions
It depends
If he manages to consistently play great like tonight, I would no question sign him to a huge deal. If some team gets hot on him playing great & sees the potential, offers you some talent like Rondo/Iguodala/Curry, you have to consider that obviously. It all depends on Nic.
"We gotta get this $#!^ together guys!" - Phil
Secretly, I was gonna pick the "Sign Batum to a Max contract" choice on the poll,
but as the first selection I knew I had to get the ball rolling in the right direction, and therefore chose
“Let Batum talk to other teams and match a contract as long as it’s reasonable.”
I guess my fingers would be crossed that we would only have to match a 4-year, $25 million offer.
Speculation now would suggest we’ll have to match a 4 year, $34 million offer or somewhere in that ballpark.
"If you can do a half-assed job of anything, you're a one-eyed man in a kingdom of the blind."
by thankyouforblaze on Feb 5, 2012 12:02 AM PST reply actions
I say its in the playoffs
If we make it to the 2nd round, or if its game 7 at home in any round.
I think he has more room than just 5% more to show
at least at the age of 23 he still could show a lot of development.
My observation of batum is not a lack of talent, but a lack of certainty which leads to a alck of aggressiveness.
This is something that can change radically. What we need to see to know is a strong trajectory upward over the course of the remaining season, continued aggressive play, be it raining down 3s without a thought or taking it tot he rack from the perimeter or posting up guards as he should. If he can turn this corner, it would easily be worth matching any offer made.
If he can not demonstrate the elimination of a reasonable level of tentativeness on a consistent basis then I would have to see what offers are coming in to decide if I want to match it. His defensive flexibility is worth most if not all of a $10 million salary in my estimation. He can guard 1 – 4. Is there anyone else in the league that can do that?
"What and how much had I lost by trying to do only what was expected of me instead of what I myself had wished to do?"
— Ralph Ellison (Invisible Man)
I can admit that timidness may absolutely account for a lack of huge numbers or whatnot,
and therefore he may have a whole other gear he can switch on during games. However, I’m still leaning towards a conservative 10% rise in production in the future.
His defensive flexibility is worth most if not all of a $10 million salary in my estimation. He can guard 1 – 4. Is there anyone else in the league that can do that?
Andre Igoudala comes to mind, though that more or less confirms your belief that he deserves $10 mil or so.
"If you can do a half-assed job of anything, you're a one-eyed man in a kingdom of the blind."
by thankyouforblaze on Feb 5, 2012 1:19 AM PST up reply actions
Andre Iguodala can guard three positions well. Batum can try to guard those guys, but I think the little bits of statistical evidence, and watching his defensive focus come and go night to night, have accumulated to the point where I’m comfortable in saying his defense is average to below average.
That said he is an excellent offensive player who can shoot, so he’s probably worth in the 7-10 million range.
i keep dancing on my own.
Batum can (in certain situation) guard 1s
I wouldn’t put Batum on a 4 unless it was a 2nd unit guy in a small ball lineup that had no post up game.
Lebron is the only guy who comes to mind who can legitimately guard 1-4 and even that would only be in certain situations.
#7
Paul George comes to mind
Dude’s 6’10 now. And if you can stop D. Rose, who cant you stop?
by Batumshakalaka on Feb 6, 2012 12:32 AM PST up reply actions
He's
Not timid he is steam player. If the team ran playes for him he’s be more agressive as the French team experience shows. They’ve asked him to be a glue guy for years, now they want him to be agressive with limited minutes. It’s a tough situation for batum. This kid could be deadly with consistent minutes and plays and mismatches utilized for him. Right now he just being given mixed messages.
Not Extending Nic may be the Blazers method of allowing him to get fair value
while still giving the Blazer the ability to keep the team intact.
I am sure someone can correct me if I do not understand all the cap in’s and out’s
The only two players under contract for next year (of the core) is LA and Wes
Wallace, Felton, Canby Oden, & Crawford can all leave. If the Blazers choose to keep
these guys they will have to pay and this could get them close if not at the cap.
If they extended Nic now there is less money to pay them and maybe add a F/A too.
By allowing Nic to “test the waters” they can figure out where they are with these guys first
and do some signings then match Nic as you can match and go over the cap but you
can not extend your own player and go over the cap.
Not sure if thats the thinking, but the logistics seem correct.
_________________________________________
If "It's Only a Game", then why do we keep score?
by MSPatton on Feb 5, 2012 9:31 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
If Batum signs with us and gets in that 8-10 mil a season.....
I would like him to not play in Europe. He needs to stay away from the softer European play and get a bit more aggressive (some more muscle would be good), plus I don’t want to see him get injured over there. Is that something that Portland can do (say he can’t play there)?
Sometimes a player's greatest challenge is coming to grips with his role on the team.
-- Scottie Pippen
i bet someone offers him
4-40. would match it. in fact, if NJ is still trying to get Howard, i would resurrect the GW for 4 picks talk. Move him, then try to package some of the picks for a real pg.
I think the team will retain him for something like 4 years, $36-38 million in the end
Batum has shown he is a good defender at multiple positions, a good rebounder for a wing player (6 per 36 minutes this season), a willing passer, and an efficient shooter.
If he puts up something like 17 pts, 6 rebs, 2 asts, 1 stl, 1 blk, in starter’s minutes, I think he justifies that contract.
He has not shown the ability to take over games offensively on his own, nor has he shown the ability to handle the ball and make plays for himself or others in the NBA on a consistent basis. But, he has shown that type of ability in his European play, as he handled the ball quite a bit and was among the league leaders in assists (and yes, turnovers). He has nice court vision, and some decent post moves. I think he has lacked the aggressiveness and opportunity to show what he can do with the ball in his hands. I’d like to see the team run some high-post isolation sets and pick and roll plays for Batum, just to see how he handles it.
They should have signed the extention.
It’s going to cost them big time now. Either they end up paying more than what was original deal was or they lose out on trading an asset.
BTW, love the Shaw Brothers avatar.
much appreciated.
yeah, Blazer management likely would have been able to ink him to say a discounted 4 year, $30 something million contract, but now he’ll likely be offered near $40M for his services, if not more (4yr/$42m?)
Nonetheless, he’ll be had for a fair market value, that’s for sure. Wonder if NJ would offer him Travis Out-of-this-world-Law money.
"If you can do a half-assed job of anything, you're a one-eyed man in a kingdom of the blind."
by thankyouforblaze on Feb 5, 2012 11:47 PM PST up reply actions
Ugh
I’d almost rather let him walk than sign him to a bloated contract that will make us all hate him in a couple years.
It's too late to trade Batum
Nobody is going to give you much for a player with 4 months until RFA, especially not this year when every free agent of note is about to be overpaid huge.
If you wanted to trade Batum, the latest you could have done it is last trade deadline.
I disagree
in fact, Phoenix would probably love to take Batum in a Nash trade, if Nash were to ever demand a trade.
"If you can do a half-assed job of anything, you're a one-eyed man in a kingdom of the blind."
by thankyouforblaze on Feb 6, 2012 4:48 PM PST up reply actions
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