Hollinger: Blazer Fans, Stop Freaking Out. (Updated)
"The Village of Portland is freaking out after the Blazers lost yet again on the road, so I'm here to tell you something: stop freaking out. The Blazers' home-road disparity is certainly jarring -- They're 10-1 at home and just 3-9 on the road, including clunkers against Detroit, Golden State, Phoenix, and Sacramento. But pull out a magnifying glass and you'll see bad luck is as much to blame as bad basketball.
Last night was the seventh straight game decided by five points or less that the Blazers lost, while their only victory in such situations came in the opener against Philadelphia. Of those seven, six were on the road.
Look at the scoring margin -- a better predictor of future performance -- and the picture brightens considerably. Portland has a better margin than Oklahoma City, believe it or not; the only West team that outranks the Blazers is Denver. Even if you ditch the scrimmage against Charlotte on Wednesday (a 44-point rout), Portland has the third-best margin in the West. The Blazers have nine double-digit wins and have lost that way only once.
So, big picture, if they keep playing this well overall they're going to win some of the close games. As bad as it's been to watch, the Blazers aren't the only team struggling with late game execution in lockoutball, and in strict probability terms it's just not possible to continue to lose 7/8ths of their close games. The Playoff Odds have the Blazers pegged for a tie for the third best record in the West, so despite the road struggles Portland remains in great position to claim home-court advantage in the first round."
I agree that it's not quite time to freak out, but I think that in order for the Blazers to really contend, late game execution, will need to get better and this team needs to sustain their energy for all four quarters. We need a closer.
4 months ago
YoniRap
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Exactly....
No reason to freak out…. Every team but the top 2 are struggling on the road… I
by Hoi on Feb 3, 2012 12:02 PM PST via mobile reply actions
Not against the likes of the Pistons and the Kings.
It’s one thing to lose a close game to Denver in Denver…
by superfly05 on Feb 3, 2012 12:33 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Exactly
Portland keeps losing to the dregs on the road no less. Playoff contenders don’t lose this many to some of the NBA’s worst teams this consistently. Detroit’s won 4 games (4-20). Hollinger’s blowing smoke. I wish I could be more optimistic, but last year’s team had more of a chance.
Henne is the greatest and the Dolphins will go 14-2 this year and win the SB
Sure tell yourself that a 3-9 road record ain't that bad.
We’ll never see 0.500 on the road this season. At the end of the year, the teams with 0.500 road records will be the contenders.
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Feb 3, 2012 1:53 PM PST reply actions
If we never see above .500 on the road this season
you’re right that we won’t be contenders. the key to both of those so far seems to be in our late game execution, where we continue to struggle in close games. Hollinger argues that the Blazers will eventually just start winning more close games. I don’t really agree with that because so far I think the team’s been horrible at closing out games rather than simply unlucky, and they have to find a way to make better plays under pressure and keep their energy up over the last quarter without a raucous home crowd.
"Wide, girthy. Just like a Rhino. Sometimes my horns are visible."
3-9 road record is real bad
but it could be better at this point. Nothing to do but move forward and not let losing 9 of our first 12 road games prevent us from performing better.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
As an addendum, we need to keep in mind that 12 games is still a small sample size
It’s just unfortunate that it’s still over a third of our road games this season, and a lot of those losses came against bad teams.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
we just haven't been able to execute late, we fall apart in the last few minutes.
I guess Jamal was supposed to be our closer but that hasn’t worked out at all.
"Wide, girthy. Just like a Rhino. Sometimes my horns are visible."
we could easily be 6-6 minimum
we’re just not. Those are the breaks…gotta stay at it and play better
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
Exactly. If these things don't even out in the regular season, they will in the playoffs
Not to say that we’re guaranteed to do well there, just that there’s a lot less room for statistical noise in a 7 games series.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
Another thing to look at here is the Blazers company in terms of road woes.
Other western conference teams that are playing poorly on the road? Utah (2-5), LAC (3-4), LAL (2-7), SAS (3-8)…well, when you look at it, it would be easier to point out the teams with above .500 records on the road: OKC, DEN, MIN…oh, looks like there’s only three teams making the playoffs out of the west, according to 1970 there! But seriously, it isn’t unreasonable to think that the Blazers will eventually start to balance out the miscues on the road and begin to right that record a little bit.
Making the playoffs is not the same thing as being a contender.
i said:
At the end of the year, the teams with 0.500 road records will be the contenders.
We’ve made the playoffs for 3 years straight, but haven’t been contenders. This will make 4 years straight unless we make some moves.
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Feb 4, 2012 3:58 PM PST up reply actions
I think if Aldridge can learn to effectively manage the double teams,
The other problems in late game situations will dissipate, especially Matthew’s poor offensive play and Felton’s unreliable jumper.
Aldridge is managing the double-teams just fine...
it’s not like he’s turning the ball over out of them. It’s his teammates that are letting him down…
#7
I think we just need to blow out every team by 40 pts
That seems to be our best late game option.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
by HailOden! on Feb 3, 2012 5:51 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
His passes out of it aren't great and his indecision makes us run out of time on the shot clock
Felton and Matthews have sucked trying to find their shots at the end of the clock. He’s gotta either hit the cutters clean or make his move faster.
his passes look pretty crisp to me and he isn't telegraphing when he's hitting cutters
the entry passes seem like the real trouble there. They’re lazy, predictable and usually come late. I’d look at Ray’s passing before I’d ding Aldridge for his passing out of double teams.
His assist rate should be nearly double if guys would just hit shots.
And it's already increased by half over last year
That’s pretty incredibly, really. Huge improvement, and his mates aren’t even hitting shots!
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
Correct me if I'm wrong here, but the 3rd best record in the west wouldn't give us home court
1 and 2 would be Denver. Don’t the other two division winners automatically get home court?
"...it was like he brought his own personal cross-wind to the arena." - Dave
no
home court is determined only by record.
the three division winners must be one of the top 4 seeds but home court advantage is determined separately. you can actually be the 4 seed but open on the road against the 5 seed.
i don’t believe it’s ever happened but it can.
"i don’t believe it’s ever happened but it can."
It sort of happened once with a #3 and #6 seed.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/web/COM1055365/index.htm
"I Am Mine"
Well I think Hollinger has a point....
….but he’s off track in refering to Portland Oregon as The Village of Portland. If Blazer fans “Freak Out” it’s because we care about the team. And quite frankly aren’t Laker fans freaking out too? How about the Village of LA?
Freaking Out is just kinda what fans do…so just lay off the “Small Village” shtick. I think a lot of N.B.A. franchises would love to play in this Village with the freaked out fanbase we have.
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
The only people freaking out are the ones that dont follow the rest of the league because as much as we are complaining there are not ten other teams in the league better than us .
We have our issues but so do a lot of other teams
This team will figure it out. We have an almost entirely new backcourt,
and they are they guys with the ball in their hands at the end of games.
"Brandon Roy has done this before."
Well...
it’s just not possible to continue to lose 7/8ths of their close games. The Playoff Odds have the Blazers pegged for a tie for the third best record in the West, so despite the road struggles Portland remains in great position to claim home-court advantage in the first round."
I don’t see a home-court advantage happening.
"If you can do a half-assed job of anything, you're a one-eyed man in a kingdom of the blind."
by thankyouforblaze on Feb 4, 2012 4:07 PM PST reply actions
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