Blazersedge Mailbag: How Long to Contend?
by Dave on Feb 2, 2012 11:05 AM PST
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PrintDave,
So the Blazers aren't contenders right now. Or are they? How do they get there from here? Do they need a big move or just an adjustment. How close are they and how soon can we expect to get there?
Hmmmm...consulting GPS. Destination: Contending. Hold on a second...it's coming up.
"Make legal U-turn now."
Great.
The Blazers have at least a couple options in front of them. Neither is completely palatable. Which one is more "right" depends on your point of view.
If you believe this roster is close to contending then you need to take your shot right now. The West is open enough that you might be able to sneak through in a year of turmoil. You have to address this roster's weaknesses through trades. You need big men. You need another proven scorer. You need an upgrade in the backcourt. So you start talking to Golden State about Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins for Gerald Wallace and Raymond Felton. You call up New Orleans and try to pry away Emeka Okafor for Marcus Camby and a pick. You sacrifice your flexibility and a bunch of dollars in the next couple years to make sure your team is viable and has at least a couple shots to come out of the West.
I don't think the Blazers take this option. It's too expensive, everybody they could get coming in has their own weaknesses, and I don't think their analysis of their chances will be optimistic enough to justify this kind of move.
Another option is a rebuild. The Blazers let their expiring contracts expire at the end of the season. They keep their flexibility and embark on another youth movement with their core players: Aldridge, Matthews, probably Batum. Depending on how deep you want to go in retooling, even those players might be available through trade, probably save LaMarcus. This option makes more financial sense and probably has a greater shot of long-term success than reaching for anybody they could get via trade or the free agency market in the immediate future. Keep in mind that the cost of not rebuilding will be re-signing some of those expiring contract guys, which is going to eat up your cap flexibility without bringing you any farther than you are right now. But even if you don't mind waiting for success, this isn't a slam dunk solution for one reason: Aldridge. He's 26 right now. Even if you have the Blazers contending in the relatively optimistic time frame of four years, that puts him at 30. You've now wasted his first nine years in the league and much of his prime. You've been paying him between $12-16 million per year to win 20-30 games per year. If he's even willing to stick around Portland for his next contract instead of jumping to a real contender it's going to cost you more, and for less production. All of that is a complete waste. The only logical extension would be to trade away Aldridge as part of the rebuild. I don't believe management is ready to go there yet either.
Therefore you're probably going to see a hybrid approach, keeping select members of the current squad, trying to add a free agent or two with the contracts of those they let go, and hoping to strike gold with a lower draft pick. Either that or you'll see an expiring contract traded before the March deadline. Either way the moves will be incremental, not radical. Trying not to lose the ground you've already gained makes sense and is the safest route. The problem comes when the ground isn't enough no matter which way you measure it. I fear that's where the Blazers may be.
None of these options lead clearly to our GPS, contending destination. We can see it on the map. I'm just not sure we can get there from here.
But maybe it's time to step back and look at the whole map here, including the road we've traveled. Big picture: the Blazers, for all intents and purposes, blew the #1 overall pick in the draft in a year when that was a franchise-changing decision. (I know the intent was right and the pick was right. That doesn't change the result. We're talking about results here.) The Blazers just lost their All-NBA shooting guard--not All-Star, but All-League--to health problems with no compensation. The Blazers have spent 7 first round draft picks in the last 8 years on point guards plus bringing in at least three free agents to start at that position during that time frame and still have no viable player to speak of at that position. Franchises do not recover from things like this...sometimes even singly, let alone in combination. It's probably a major miracle that we're talking about Portland's playoff chances at all. It's a testament to the moves that the front office has been able to make around these disasters. But when you start thinking about contending for a title, that may be a bit much to ask. Looking at the grander scope, the chances of those things happening and the Blazers still rising as if nothing had occurred are infinitesimal.
How long until the Blazers really contend? Realistically it's probably a whole new generation of players away, the result of new opportunities we can't forecast, let alone put a timetable on.
--Dave (blazersub@gmail.com)
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Money!
It takes money and Paul Allen has it. He won’t throw it at the team like in the past but don’t bet against him to try to buy a ring again.
no players to buy
there are about 7 players who could take us to that next level and noe are available or coming here. D-will is our best but not likely.
Easy.
DWill + DHoward = 2012 NBA Champion parades in downtown Portland
I don't always root for an NBA franchise, but when I do, I prefer the Portland Trail Blazers.
Recruiting as a representative of Portland is like driving around in a Honda Civic offering test drives.
Recruiting as a representative of Dallas is like driving around in a Mercedes-Benz SLK-Class roadster offering a backseat ride with two beautiful, model-esque cowgirls to sit alongside.
"I Am Mine"
Scratch that, as the roadster is a two-seater.
The point remains the same, even though I botched that analogy something terrible.
I really did mess that up, however. Oh well, it happens.
"I Am Mine"
The only logical extension would be to trade away Aldridge as part of the rebuild. I don’t believe management is ready to go there yet either.
Well, that’s the problem with the management, isn’t it? If the goal is to build a title contender, and there’s only one realistic path to that goal, and the management is unwilling to follow it, isn’t that a problem?
by howlingfantods on Feb 2, 2012 11:32 AM PST reply actions 2 recs
LA
is the best PF in the game right now. I would not trade him for any other PF. He should be the only player not traded in whatever we do. Either way this team looks completely different next year.
We need to keep Batum around.
you wouldn't be trading him for another PF
you’d be trading him for a stockpile of youth/draft picks
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
that just doesn't make sense to me
you trade one of the best players in the game, when you have a great chance to build around him this offseason. I say see what we can get done during this transition period for building around him, if that doesn’t work then in a couple of seasons then look to trade him.
We need to keep Batum around.
hey, I'm not saying I support it...I love Lamarcus
but that’s what you do. Look no further than what Utah got in return for Deron Williams or what Denver got in return for Carmelo. Look where those teams already find themselves (not perfectly analogous situations, but the Utah one isn’t too far off). Valuable young prospects plus good draft picks going forward can refill the cupboard awfully quick if done right. And no, I don’t trust the FO to do it right.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
But with our cap room
who knows what we can get this offseason, not to mention our euro’s overseas can help. I just think you see how this offseason shakes out before making drastic moves. If Deron Williams, Nash, Etc. comes over here in the offseason we could be talking contenders in the West. I think our best option is to get what we can for players we wont have on the team next year and make our run next season.
We need to keep Batum around.
Right on.
This is a bad season and nowhere near the right time to make these kinds of decisions. Everything can change as far as the way things are percieved in about 5 games. Certainly the next 5 games for the Blazers. We go from struggling to gellin and making a run at the finals if we take care of home court and win a few on the road.
I agree...
but if there is a move to make at the trade deadline for Felton, Wallace, Camby, etc. I think you make it just because the odds of them not being here is great. But yes, judging this team with so many new pieces in such a small amount of time is unwise. Like others have said, if a couple of games went our way on the road we could be in second place in the conference.
We need to keep Batum around.
Those players both asked to be traded. LA has not.
We have a legit allstar who likes it here. He is just entering his prime, there is time for the blowup if you can’t build around him but we are in position now to make Magic happen.
Loud pipes save lives!
Bad knees break hearts!
Time for an exorcism.
right
I’m just speaking in hypotheticals…and like I said, I’m not advocating getting rid of LMA. But with a true rebuild that’s what it would take
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
LMA and Steve Blake are off the trading table
oh wait…
LaMarcus Aldridge All-Star 2011-2012.
by Eat Politicians on Feb 2, 2012 11:57 PM PST up reply actions
And if we think we can compete in the next couple years
sure, you want to keep LA, but the point was that it will take long enough to acquire and develop a supporting cast around him that he’d be exiting his prime right when we needed an in-prime superstar to contend. Basically we’d be mirroring the Mid-2000’s Celtics and TWolves with Aldridge as our Pierce/Garnett, respectively. Even the Celtics were a team that did pretty much everything right in that time period, absolutely crushing the draft, and they still needed to pull off two monster trades to contend before Pierce became an NBA geriatric.
Build a contender and make money or at least avoid bankruptcy
I believe the FO wants to get us another title but they have to be more than just fans. The rebuilding years take a pretty big toll on a franchise.
+1
Allen basically said as much at the beginning of the season. He’s not ready to suffer through 20-win seasons yet. Sure, contending is the goal, but having a competitive, fun team that puts fans in the seats looks pretty nice after the depths this franchise suffered through last decade.
And remember, Allen and the front office now how quickly a rebuild can fall apart. We had everything come together with the Roy, LMA, Oden core and it didn’t pan out. Sure, we’re unlikely to be so unlucky next time around, but they know it doesn’t take much to scuttle your chances of contending when you’re a small market team. Can you really fault ownership and the front office if they’re not ready to exchange what we have for several horrid years and only a mediocre chance at contending after that?
"...it was like he brought his own personal cross-wind to the arena." - Dave
Depends on the opportunity, I suppose
You definitely don’t blow it up just to blow it up. Nor is tanking for higher draft choices a good option. But if you target a player you really believe will lead you into the next generation but it costs you some viability now…well…that’s a harder choice. I think I would fault them for clinging to mediocrity if they perceived a way through it, even if the first part of that “through” was “down”.
—Dave
Yeah this makes sense
I wouldn’t mind a complete blow up if there was something in the draft that could get us moving in the right direction or at least a good chance within the next 3 years.
The tough part for me is I believe LMA is one of those very special players that the NBA will be talking about for a long time after he retires. People give him a lot of crap right now but I still see a good mix of Duncan and Nowitzky in him and his game looks like it could have a lot of longevity to it. Slowly the stats are beginning to back the eye test up.
Tough to let go of one of those kinds of players when you’re in a small market. Especially one that seems like he wouldn’t mind staying for years.
That would be
a last resort, I’m sure. I think they’re secure in keeping Aldridge for the next few seasons. Only a truly revolutionary offer or him quitting on the team would pry him out of their hands.
—Dave
Yeah, it seems Trail Blazer management and Portland fans will happily kick the can from 2012 'til 2015.
All that they’ll do, however, is just postpone the inevitable, with that inevitability being the rebuilding process.
That can shouldn’t be kicked, but rather picked up and tossed in the trash—IMMEDIATELY!
Yet, if it takes them 4 years of LaMarcus Aldridge fueled mediocrity featuring a few one-‘n’-done postseason outings — with maybe, just maybe a conference finals appearance sprinkled in — to realize the time they’ve wasted, then so be it.
“Realistically,” Dave explained, “it’s probably a whole new generation of players away” for the Trail Blazers to reach contender status. I say they begin building that new generation now, but my voice carries no sound; rather, it falls on deaf ears.
But hey, that’s okay. Not like I can do anything about it.
"I Am Mine"
The thing is you seem to be saying the only way to contend is to blow it up.
Thats just not true. The last time the Blazers went to the conference finals was not through that route. Why does this one have to be? Maybe we should bring back Bob Whitsett, LOL.
Loud pipes save lives!
Bad knees break hearts!
Time for an exorcism.
what does trading away clyde and letting buck, porter, kersey, and cliffy walk constitute
if not “blowing it up”?
by howlingfantods on Feb 6, 2012 3:44 AM PST up reply actions
Moneyball
I don’t think developing rookies is good for Portland, not if you want to contend and make money. So we need to get the veterans between 5-10 years of service.
that's the exact opposite version of NBA moneyball.
The reality of NBA salary cap rules is that the best values you can get are superstars on max salaries (because they’re capped at 15’ish million and are actually worth 30 or 40 or 50 million) and productive rookies (because they’re also capped at whatever their rate is). The worst values are veterans making respectable veteran sized salaries.
The way you can tell that’s the exact opposite version of NBA moneyball is to watch what brilliant GMs like RC Buford do—use up their caps on their three superstars, and fill out their roster with young guys on rookie scale and undrafted free agents who can come in and play a very well defined role.
by howlingfantods on Feb 2, 2012 12:14 PM PST up reply actions 4 recs
+1
unfortunately…Nate prefers 7677’s method.
by ripcitymilehigh on Feb 2, 2012 1:02 PM PST up reply actions
I agree with this post
I feel that Portland needs to seriously consider trading their assets now for future compensation and or an allstar/young talent. And I believe it all starts with Gerald Wallace. I know everyone loves him and I do too, but if we aren’t going to win a chamionship this season then he should be traded. Would you rather have him walk at the end of the season and get nothing? Instead get as much as possible for him and improve this team either now or for the future. We have a starter quality sf who is more consistent then him right now. Lets use our trade assets to our advantage before we don’t have them anymore.
We need to keep Batum around.
I had heard...
that we were looking at 4 first round picks for Wallace as part of that 3 team Orland, NJ, Portland deal. I’m not sure if that was pure rumor or if that was really what was on the table – but even if we got 2 or 3 first rounders for Wallace, it’d be a great way to start – especially if it included a trade exception. That would be move #1. Move #2 would be an assortment of Camby, Felton, Nolan Smith, Elliot Williams, a pick or 2 for a scoring guard like Ellis or a decent center – a la Kaman. We would then use the picks and the cap room at the end of the season (assuming the Kaman or Ellis trade doesn’t eat it all up) to shore up our weak points. A year or 2 of prospecting and MLE/miniMLE acquisitions and I see us being in a really healthy, sustainable spot by 2013-2014. That’s the only viable scenario I can think of. We need to use the resources we have – because they’re not getting any better at the end of this year.
I agree with all of that...
except for Kaman. I think he would be a downgrade from Camby. But I think Ellis or Ben Gordon would be good pickups at the 2, however, that would limit flexibility in the summer. I think Nash would be more likely. An obvious upgrade while keeping our flexibility.
We need to keep Batum around.
Blow it up
Rebuild around Jon Diebler, The Rhino and Luke “Chalupacabra” Babbitt.
RIP CITY - We're back!
Let's just get Dwight Howard for LMA already.
And trade Felton & Crawford for Nash.
Howard
Wallace
Nic
Matthews
Nash
Title. Ha.
"Coach said to always be careful around Greg, because Greg costs a lot and even the slightest amount of basketball can damage him." -- The Onion
I have to agree....
…and as a Blazer fan, it pains me on one level to have to agree. When you evaluate all that has gone wrong for this franchise, Oden and Brandon as separate cases but specifically, it is amazing this team is still as good as it is. Since Brandon Roy, Aldridge and Batum, The Blazers haven’t gotten a lot of results from the draft. And Dave is quite right, it seems like an eternity that The Blazers have been trying to find a PG.
I want the best for this team, but I think at some point you do have to face reality. The Blazers BEAT the odds in winning the #1 pick the year Oden and Durant were available, and I’m afraid history is going to record that The Blazers lost their chance at championship viablity that year. It’s looking more and more like Oden simply will not play again in a Blazer Uniform…perhaps never play again period. Durant is an All-Star. Blazer fans instinctively shut their eyes tightly, but the reality is a core of Aldridge and Durant, even sans Brandon Roy…is a 2 All-Star core that you can legitimately challenge with…
But of course, you move on. You have to move on. But when you think about it? It could be a lot worse, it’s amazing it isn’t. Part of that is the resources of Paul Allen, I’m not sure many owners invest into toxic offers to obtain Wesley Matthews, or move to obtain Gerald Wallace in trade deadline deals. The Blazers have made additions that have kept The Blazers treading water.
How do we break out of the trap of “Good” but not “Great”? Quite honestly, I don’t know. Every team in the league NOT at the top is trying to do that same thing. I suppose you do, exactly what we’ve seen. You bring in Raymond Feltons, hoping that they are on the cusp of taking that next step in their development. You obtain the Jamal Crawfords hoping they can give you that game winning offensive firepower.
But mostly? If this doesn’t eventually become another painful rebuilding process? You hope to beat the odds again. You NEED to beat the odds again, with either a player developing way beyond expectations, or with a late round draft pick that becomes something MORE than expected. These things happen. Just not very often.
The Blazers have had some horrible luck. Brandon Roys early retirement and Oden simply not working out, would be death blows to any weaker franchise. Testament to something being right that this franchise is still afloat.
Unfortunately? I’m really at a loss. Can we get there from here? I’m not sure. I tend to think it’s possible, but it would take some unexpected “luck”…for a franchise that has suffered so much unexpected bad luck? Perhaps we are due.
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
dead on, but
the one piece that could tip the scale is still hobbling around in the Blazers training room.
by skott75 on Feb 2, 2012 11:56 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Correction.
hobbling around with a topless amazon woman.
"Luke is our go-to Chalupa man," Matthews said. "Designated."
Since he is no longer hobbling
This idea is even more relevant….
Oden would be a big piece of a contender puzzle if he could provide any interior presence at all on the offense side of the ball – even it is only creating more space for Aldridge by making double teams more difficult….
Oden alone isn’t quite enough, however. Wallace would have to be a more consistent scorer – and at least one more good shooter to go along with Batum would be necessary. Batum, Mathews, Crawford and Felton have to be able to sink the open 3 to complement the Wallace/LMA/Camby/Oden frontcourt to make this current edition a contending addition.
Else, the Blazers would have to trade to find the necessary shooting/scoring.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
I believe Wallace's consistency will improve
Same for Wesley’s shot. Crawford looks like he’ll be fine. All thing considered, if Ray could hit the open 3pt at a solid clip and Oden comes back at 70% of what we’ve seen ….even fouling out in 22mins…we might actually have a shot in this messed up season.
Ray and Oden, then, seem to be the real questions on this roster as it exists now. I can see why the FO might consider it worth the risk this season.
Even if Oden is able to suit up again, playing just 88 total games (inc. playoffs) and under 2000 minutes from ages 19-24 has cost him crucial time for player development as well as likely robbed him of a substantial fraction of his athleticism.
That’s not to say there’s no hope of him being a good player— I appreciate his outstanding per minute numbers from 09 as much as anyone— but I just can’t see him becoming the marquee player he could have been.
if Greg can stay on the court I still expect him to have a major impact
it’s the staying on the court part
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
yeah this
just running the floor, patrolling the paint a little and being a threat to dunk the ball would be huge.
We don’t need 20/10…though it would be nice.
I would submit that in order to put this roster over the top to being true contenders, the Blazers would need a lot more than ’just running the floor, patrolling the paint a little and being a threat to dunk the ball."
more in agreement with Sammy's comment about
if Greg can stay on the court I still expect him to have a major impact
This season is also likely to be a whole different story from the norm. “True contender” may very well not have the same meaning. This year it may very well mean “the team that figures out how to consistently beat Miami, OKC and Denver”. I bet we have a chance at two of those.
having Camby or Oden coming off the bench is an enormous instant upgrade
due to his size and strength alone, Greg will command the attention of the defense and will deter basket attackers in ways that Kurt Thomas, and to be honest even Marcus Camby, cannot.
He’s a game changer, even if he’s rusty, out of shape, and has lost a portion of his athleticism.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
There are plenty of players who are big and strong, Nik Vucevic, Timofey Mozgov, Brendan Haywood, Peckovic and Darko in Minny, Hasheem Thabeet, but none of them have much impact because they are too slow and not skilled enough.
i keep dancing on my own.
skill is not an issue with Greg in my eyes
I also consider him bigger, stronger, and more imposing than any of those guys.
Greg is beast. Greg is force of nature. Greg does not warrant comparisons to the Mozgovs, Haywoods, and Thabeets of the NBA world. Not in my eyes.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
without the quickness to get the ball
his rebounding will be compromised despite his excellent instincts. Putting him in the discussion with a bunch of stiffs was obviously a bit OTT, but I don’t see how we can expect a guy who’s gone through multiple knee surgeries to come back and just be the guy he was before.
i keep dancing on my own.
all I'm sayin is Greg knows how to play basketball
that puts him ahead of most of those guys. I think his size and strength get him a longer ways because the skill is present.
I always thought his ability level was kind of sold short.
That being said, who knows what Greg will look like or if we’ll ever see him on the court again. I’ll just be happy once he’s out there. The whole thing makes me a sad panda.
But if we’re talking about how much of a difference maker he is, step 1 is get on the court. We’ll go from there.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
" I appreciate his outstanding per minute numbers from 09 as much as anyone"
That just struck me as being soo long ago…
I think some big question are;
do you like watching the Blazers now as a team?
How excited wold you be to dump everything, start over, and watch the Portland Bobcats for three years until finally there is a glimmer of hope?
(that “glimmer of hope” not even hinting at “contention” for who knows how many years)
Basically, is it more important to have a team that is a surefire “contender” or a damn good team that’s incredibly fun to watch and will feed off the hopes of it’s fans?
you can have one of those now and for years to come, or you can endure trash for 10 years and build your way up to likely losing in the finals anyway.
rinse and repeat.
I like this team. I just think they need to get it together and hopefully they will.
I also don’t think it’s possible to say the Blazers aren’t “contenders”.
The regular season is just for figuring out how to play with the team, the playoffs are when it matters. We’ll see what they look like when that moment comes
The Blazers are exciting now.
Every time they turn over the ball, I get excited.
Every t ime they chuck a wild 3pt with the clock at 2 seconds, I get excited.
Every time they drive the lane and miss the easy layup, I get excited.
Every time some mediocre opponent runs off a 14-2 run in the 4th quarter, I get excited.
….well, you get the idea. It’s too much excitement for me. I preferred the days when BRoy put his foot on the neck of the other team and choked them out by scoring the last 6 or 8 points in the final 2 minutes to win it.
I favor the rebuild job. Trade away for draft picks until we shine again.
by oregonslee on Feb 2, 2012 12:08 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
we've got some really good wins under our belt this year
as well as some really bad losses…but at least we’ve shown the capability, when playing well, to beat the premier teams in our conference.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
I think we are a good center away from being real contenders for the West Finals
and both a good center and pg away from being championship contenders.
My 2 hopes: Ray and Oden
Lets hope Ray gets it going. Last year, its about this time when Ray started the best 54 game streak of his career with the Knicks, maybe he heats up after the first 20 games, IDK one can hope though. And maybe, just maybe, Oden comes back and gives us a good center for the last 10-20 games of the season to get into game shape for the playoffs. We could be pretty badass if that happens.
Otherwise, 2nd round of the playoff is most likely tops for us.
by cavejunctionblazer on Feb 2, 2012 12:51 PM PST up reply actions
Ray playing at league average + Oden would be a big step up
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
Yes.
Throw in some magic momentum like Dallas captured last year and anything could happen.
Ahhhh life....its so hard to know what is the right decision to make.
One, We could ditch what we got and rebuild or two, try to add some pieces to our puzzle and hope we get to the big picture. Right now we are a couple pieces away from being contenders in my mind, but without those pieces we are not contenders. So what are we going for here, mediocrity, playoff exits or 1st round playoff wins or rings? Plus no piece guarantees anything, but if it ups our chances considerably, we should go for it. Otherwise, get rid of these guys while their value is still relatively high. The problem for me, is our front office does not seem to have a clear plan as to what their mission is. I guess this trade deadline will probably be our best clue as to what will happen. If we make some major move, it will explain alot. As well, if we dont make a move. My biggest problem with waiting for FA is that most of them do not want to play here….anyways I could go on and on…i’ll end it with its hard to know whats the right decision to make.
by cavejunctionblazer on Feb 2, 2012 12:05 PM PST reply actions
The real question is...
Does our management even know how to scout point guards? That section about our draft picks + F/As is pretty telling. Is it that we have just hit bad luck so many times, or we don’t even know what to look for to fill that position?
This is a great point
Regardless of the path we take (contend now, hold the course, or rebuild), we need a front office that’s going to give us the best shot possible by selecting the best picks and making the best trades available to us. Once upon a time, our front office was regarded as great drafters with little success swinging deals for established players. Now the tables have turned. If we’re going to rebuild, we really need to start nailing our draft picks.
"...it was like he brought his own personal cross-wind to the arena." - Dave
No they do not.
The draft record speaks for itself. As long as Paul Allen and his vulcans are making the final decision or influencing the picks, then there’s no hope for the future. We need a GM with freedom to act and not beholden to Larry Miller and the like.
we use the Kahn method
minus the part where we actually get a brilliant young PG from overseas.
yeah, I understand the avoidance of being accused of
‘clinging’ to the Oden hope. But that hope does in fact exist.
The dice are ‘probably’ not turning seven next roll, but, it does happen.
I don’t walk away with my money on the table before the results are in.
by Berkeley on Feb 2, 2012 12:28 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Agreed
ALOT hinges on whether Oden can come back healthy.
by cavejunctionblazer on Feb 2, 2012 12:41 PM PST up reply actions
I'd upgrade that to ALMOST EVERYTHING hinges on Oden
At least to me. I’m almost ready to give up hope on this generation (Oden/Roy/LMA/Batum/Rudy) of Blazers, and start a new rebuilding process. But I won’t be ready until Oden’s fate is determined. If he leaves this summer, I’m done. Blow it up and start over. But if Oden comes back to Portland, I honestly think that Oden/LMA/Batum/PGOTF could win an NBA Title in a couple years.
by unblindloyalty on Feb 2, 2012 2:25 PM PST up reply actions
Blowing it up doesn't mean an opportunity to rebuild
Retooling is definitely the better word – and retooling can take different forms. Either trade stars for more quality depth across more positions (Utah/Denver example) or build around existing stars by trading depth for additional starpower.
Either way – some continuity of players remains. Trading away current assets for future assets (draft, raw prospects) is simple gambling.
Lottery games should not be played for investment purposes.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
Oden
is the most realistic option the team has…and I know how ridiculous that sounds.
The team is not blowing it up…they just rebuilt the thing a few years ago. This team is competitive as is.
They need talent, but they also need to develop the talent they have. Elliot looks like he could be comparable to Crawford (minus the game winners maybe) for a heck of a lot less money, Freeland isn’t the rebounder they need, but he could be an all-around big man that can cover big man minutes off the bench. Camby might resign, Batum is blossoming, I am not as worried about Felton, and the draft this year is full of bigs.
The team isn’t dominant, but they can compete now, and they should be able to compete in the future…Oden becomes the ultimate X factor to take them over them over the top.
The upside here is the Detroit Pistons, or Dallas Mavericks. A team that competes every year, might make a couple Conference finals, and if everything breaks right they could squeak out a championship (with or without Oden)…pretty exciting
by ripcitymilehigh on Feb 2, 2012 3:44 PM PST up reply actions
Wow do I disagree with the tone and content of this post
They have the players to contend right now. They just need to figure out how to play better together and hopefully the younger players continue to improve.
People forget that great teams used to be good, and good teams used to be not so good, and they improve over time. It’s not magic. It takes good coaching and time.
Wallace, Crawford and even Felton are good players. Felton may be the weak link, but he also maybe just needs to find his footing. Aldridge, and Batum are still improving, and are not at the top of their games, yet.
If there is one thing Portland may need to contend this year its an upgrade at PG, but as long as Camby is healthy they are a darn good team and should be better then they have been so far this season.
I find Dave’s opinion in this matter…unconvincing
I also find it unconvincing
What we have right now is a team that is in the middle of rebuilding, and we already have the pieces we need. Right now our trajectory is pointing up… not down.
1. We have an All-Star pf in LA. He is already putting up numbers that are better than last year.
2. Signed Jamal Crawford to a cheap contract, and he seems to want to play here until he retires. GREAT 6th man.
3. We$ is still young. He is in his 3rd year.
4. Gerald Wallace isn’t a dinosaur by any means. Still plays really hard.
5. Ray Ray…. eh….. we have to wait to see how that goes. I still have hope.
6. GREG ODEN. Let’s not forget about this. Good things come to those who wait. He will play basketball again. That may be the light at the end of the tunnel.
7. I hope we resign Nic. He is also improving with leaps and bounds.
Come on everyone…. be optimistic (and realistic). Our team is still very young (with some very old exceptions). Winning is a process. It doesn’t happen all at once. We have the pieces.
by andyisnumerouno on Feb 2, 2012 12:32 PM PST up reply actions
#2
great sixth man?…maybe at one time, now he is average (great one day, bad the next)
by ripcitymilehigh on Feb 2, 2012 1:05 PM PST up reply actions
I think Crawford is getting some backlash from our starting guards' terrible play
and he’s having to play extra minutes with the starters while Ray has struggled. He’s had a rough start but I think he’ll be fine off the bench.
No Dave is not right on everything
But he is on this…
LaMarcus Aldridge All-Star 2011-2012.
by Eat Politicians on Feb 2, 2012 11:51 PM PST up reply actions
my only objection to this is..
for how long? After this season, the team will be completely different. Do you sacrifice the future for one season, or do you cash in on your assets for future benefit? That is the big question.
We need to keep Batum around.
Blow it up? Really?
Why, after losing Roy and Oden, would you trade away the ONE GUY that keeps this team in contention, who excites fans with a legit superstar presence and who has shown steady improvement for each of the last few seasons?
This isn’t a Nash/Suns scenario, either. LMA has many good pieces around him, it’s just a matter of gaining consistency on the road and guys learning their roles in the rotation. Remember, we’re not that far removed from being the ESPN darkhorse darlings. This team can, and will, put it together.
"Hey! If the moon were made of ribs, wouldja eat it? I know I would!"
And until we can win on the road
we will continue to “fly under their radar” lol
"Luke is our go-to Chalupa man," Matthews said. "Designated."
when we get in close we'll launch the missiles!
The radar guys won’t know what hit em!
Crunch Time will be the trade deadline
If the team remains at or below .500, I believe the FO will trash the season, trade off the expiring contracts for draft picks, and look to the draft and FA market next summer. If we’re over .500, we’ll continue in the hope the team will continue to “jell” as the season progresses and peaks in the playoffs and maybe evening winning 1 or 2 rounds.
Agreed, I think the trade deadline will tell alot about which direction the team is heading
by cavejunctionblazer on Feb 2, 2012 12:56 PM PST up reply actions
this feels a whole lot like last season
that’s when we got Crash though so will be interesting to see what the FO does.
Yeah, perhaps instead of selling our expiring contracts for draft picks, it'll be the other way around
What’s the best expiring contract out there for us?
More bulletin board material from Dave...
Let’s hope it is printed and handed out to everyone on the roster!
#7
i'm not sure...
i just think they need to play FA right…. if howard doesn’t go to NJ, i could see D-will coming here…. i really could… i just think he wants to win… and being paired with a player like LMA could convince him. and maybe a return to the North West for Ray Allen as well?
Dont forget Nate's one-year deals
Paul Allen could go allin this year by getting a rental Nash and then still blow it up in the offseason…..I like this approach. I am all in favor of the flexibility of this summer up and down the roster on head coach, but I would love to see Nash come over if we onjly had to give up a few young’ens and no 1st rounders.
Dave's pretty much covered all the options. My choice - don't stand pat. Mediocrity sucks.
Teams get into a mediocrity mode – the Blazers have been there before. It’s year after year of 1st round and out, or just missing the playoffs. It’s easy to stay there a long time getting mid-round draft picks and betting that a Trout or Batum will become the next Brandon Roy if you just give them long enough time to develop. They don’t.
Clearing the decks and hoping to get 2 super-stars (or even 1 super-star) with cap space is nuts if your team plays in Portland Oregon. Maybe you could get a kid from Portland to return (but even that is rare) and is Kevin Love an upgrade over LaMarcus?
Dumping nearly everyone but LA for draft picks and doing a complete rebuild over 3-4 years isn’t the worse thing that can happen. You are likely to get some pretty exciting draft picks to watch and if you get lucky one of those lottery picks could become a super-star before LA gets tired of losing and asks to move on. I’m not completely opposed to that but I’m not quite ready for it either.
The Western Conference isn’t that strong now, especially if Howard ends up staying in the East. Except for OKC it is wide open with Kobe’s days numbered (even if Howard goes to the Lakers). Durant could go down with an injury and he isn’t going to win without Westbrook if he goes down. But the Blazers are not good enough right now to take advantage of an opening if it exists, or give a healthy OKC a challenge in the playoffs. So I’m for a 2-year plan of picking up some help at center and star PG to play with Lamarcus, and taking our best shot in the next 2 years. Then if we fail, it’s time to do the complete rebuild.
Unfortunately you can’t trade for a young star PG without giving up Lamarcus, so go get the one realistic guy that could make Lamarcus a near super-star in this league. Go get Nash. Get Nash’s head-nod that he will sign another 2-year deal (else he wouldn’t agree to be traded here anyway) and go get him without giving up Batum (we need his shooting). Give up Wallace or Wesley or whatever else it takes to get him. Send Wallace or Wesley or Camby to NO for Okafor. Bring in a Free Agent SG or Freeland this summer with the MLE.
Nash, LA, Batum, Okafor and an MLE free agent to replace Wesley if we lost him is a good 5. Then if Oden can walk make him a big-bucks 3-year offer this summer. If he pans out you can win a championship, if not you are still going to be near the top of the West next year with Nash and LA. Then if all fails, you can start rebuilding in 2 years anyway.
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Feb 2, 2012 12:48 PM PST reply actions
Mediocrity does suck.
But this team is not mediocre.
"Hey! If the moon were made of ribs, wouldja eat it? I know I would!"
This team is the definition of mediocre.
1. One or two wins or losses bounces us in or out of a playoff spot.
2. Great home record, miserable road record.
3. Three straight years losing in the first round of the playoffs.
4. One All-star level player, no one else even close to all-star level.
5. 4th in our division standings
Do you think that makes us a contender, or even a very good team? We are a mediocre team in a pack fighting for a playoff spot. We are playing one of the worst teams in the league tonight and can’t be confident of a road win.
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Feb 2, 2012 4:23 PM PST up reply actions
And the thoroughly Mediocre Blazers lost tonight to the 6-15 Sacramento Kings
to push their road record to an abysmal 3-9.
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Feb 2, 2012 10:22 PM PST up reply actions
They are definitely mediocre on the road
But their home record is impressive. So they are half mediocre and half impressive.
LaMarcus Aldridge All-Star 2011-2012.
by Eat Politicians on Feb 2, 2012 11:53 PM PST up reply actions
If the Trail Blazers want to push forward as-is over the next season or two, then that's a fair proposal.
It’d likely max out in a conference finals appearance at best, but would sell tickets and push merchandise.
"I Am Mine"
Pick up Nash and Okafor without giving up too much and they have a good shot at the WCF.
Then take the additional 3-year gamble on Oden if he can run and bounce a ball this summer - and with some luck (isn’t it time we/he had some) the skies the limit.
For certain it would be much more fun to watch that team (Nash and LA, and maybe Oden) and if it fails to get you to the WCF or beyond … you are just going to rebuild in 2 years anyway.
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Feb 2, 2012 10:29 PM PST up reply actions
First Thing
You need a GM.
But I kinda agree with the thought, count your blessing and enjoy the show. Forget about fretting over a title because it most likely won’t happen anytime soon, and there is practically no way the FO will blow up the team.
I come from a small town in New Mexico. We have a collage team there which we love and root for. But there is no problem being always on the outside of the championship parade. It is a humble role to play, but we have plenty of fun along the way, right?
by inpresence on Feb 2, 2012 12:53 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
you have a point
‘Enjoy the ride’ – at this point our team can beat anybody on any given night.
The ‘start over’ mentality is just not warranted with the team we have.
Ultimately, smart decisions, prophetic insight into future talent are key.
Moves like Andre for Felton discourage me – start changing the decision maker before you give them MORE decisions. Management matters – a lot.
Yes
who can forget Dave’s wild swings back and forth on the basis of a few games’ results.
What wild swings?
He’s consistently questioned the character or quality of this team and his dubiousness about what he sees is the correct conclusion. It’s also borne out by the national media’s skepticism of this team. Look at the latest national ratings and see for yourself; it’s a mediocre average rating.
No need to blow up the team.
Apart from replacing our guards, our team is fine. Clearly we need more depth at center, but IF Oden comes back or we get Freelander (expected this summer?), we could be solid.
I am not saying we are a perfect team, but look at our record. Arguably 5 or 6 of our losses should have been wins. I like to pick on our games in Houston and at the Clippers. Convert those 2 games from losses to wins and all of a sudden we are 15 and 7…. sitting in second in the West, only behind OKC who we beat at their place! Lets not over-react… yet.
Sorry about wierd bolding...
I only wanted to bold the IF
Spot on assessment.
You can see why the Blazers look to have early round playoff exits foreseeably. Not choosing the high risk/high reward path makes sense for them with Aldridge on board. But assembling a great team is a longshot. And they became longer when they traded away Andre Miller.
"The only 'Advanced Metric' that matters is what you see with your eyes." -Timbo, Nov., 2009.
Don't blow it up!
Hang in there people. I’m sure lots of fans for other teams are feeling frustrated, watching their team tire out randomly in fourth quarters, discombobulated offenses (no one has time to practice), and just sloppy play. On top of these league-wide problems, Portland is an entirely different team now, and Raymond Felton has been really bad. He can only get better, and average might be all it takes.
Portland has the same problem that they have had under McMillian ..............PG
While Felton is the best starting PG Portland has had since Damon Stoudmire, he has way too many turnovers and he is a average shooter at best. Crawford should be starting simply because of his shooting ability. Jamal Crawford is an excellent shooter and can get his shot off against the best defenders in the league BUT Crawford too turns the ball over way to much as well……………………….WHAT TO DO????
It is clear that Nate prefers Wallace over Batum and even though Wallace has said that he will not opt out of his contract this off season and Portland can match any contract that Nic gets, you can believe that some team will throw a 5-6 yr deal at about 12 million a year because Batum is worth that.
Portland has to trade Batum for a point guard or risk losing him for nothing. Toronto has put Jose Calderon on the market and the Blazers would be dumb to not see what it would take to get him. Calderon is shooting about 40% from 3 and likes to push the rock and would fit this roster perfect.
PORTLAND WILL BE ONE AND DONE IF THEY DON’T MAKE A MOVE FOR A POINT GUARD.
Kenneth Lewis Moore
7 first round picks on pgs in 8 years !
Thank you Dave for pointing that out.
just win baby !
by FrenchieFan on Feb 2, 2012 3:14 PM PST via mobile reply actions
isn't that crazy?
they’re trying so hard to find a long term PG solution and are just terrible at it…add a couple trades to those draft picks as well. It would be nice for them to actually find the Collison/Lawson/Rondo diamond in the rough for once so we don’t have to keep going through this.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
we probably could have gotten collison
New Orleans was obviously shopping him.
We need to keep Batum around.
there are plenty of guys I'm sure we could have bought low on
but that requires foresight, and I have yet to see evidence we possess that for the PG position
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
Sammy, you and I live in different worlds.
There were also young BIGS available in those drafts too :(
just win baby !
I understand that that this core has no chance to win a tile.
The owner’s failures in this CBA to address the real problems that are plaguing the league means that there won’t be any real, tangible hope for small market teams to be serious threats at champions.
(I realize where OKC currently stands, and they may prove me wrong, but one of these days that team will eventually have a player who gets injured.)
I also understand that blowing it up in a total rebuild in a small market works about .7% of the time.
So I am in favor of making 90% of this team’s games fun to watch, and that means keep rearranging this Titanic’s deck chairs. Following a team like the Bobcats or Wizards or Nets in a constant state of rebuilding is no fun. Call me a fair weather fan, but if this team blew it up and went into several years of tank mode for high draft picks, I would find better things to do than watch games. I wouldn’t post obtuse humor on here. I definitely would quit going to 10 or so games a year.
But in 4 years, if they got rolling again, I would gladly get back to posting stoic matter-of-fact missives with AK84 on the state of the team that I was not a fan of, but merely followed; the only NW team in the NBA, the Seattle Blazers.
dinasour type of guys choir boys
Look, I understand that it's more fun for a lot of people to watch a good, yet not great team play on a ...
game-by-game basis versus a horrendous team in the midst of a rebuild. It wouldn’t satisfy me, though, but that’s just me.
"I Am Mine"
But AK, its almost June
Blazer fans have a party day, and we get find out who our new pg is !! I think the other teams call it a " draft " ?
just win baby !
This would work
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=78hpmzj
I’d take Okafor for Camby strait up and Nash for a year for Ray and Wes. Losing Wes would sting and we’d need an extra cheap guard.
I would be curious to see how a three guard rotation of
Nash, Crawford and EW would fair. I have really soured on Felton. The worse he shoots the more he looks for his shot AND does not set up his teamates.
Great analysis, Dave
I’m going to slice my wrists now.
I still believe in Greg Oden. The Blazers' medical staff? Not so much.
I'd change my handle to "bringback'09," but I'm too lazy.
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