A quick look at Drexler vs. Aldridge with respect to PER and Win Shares
by BlazersMakr on Feb 13, 2012 5:36 PM PST
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PrintAfter reading Ben’s post about Aldridge’ chase of Clyde this afternoon, I figured I’d look a little bit deeper into the statistics between the two.
As Ben stated, Clyde is the gold standard for our franchise, and a Hall of Famer.
****************
I’ve previously looked at some of Aldridge’s stats with respect to Blazer greats in other posts: http://www.blazersedge.com/2011/6/10/2216961/2011-blazers-offseason-thoughts-3-l-train-2015-the-greatest-blazer
****************
When I look at the way Aldridge is playing this year, I feel he’s easily a top 10 player in the league.
He is currently,
· 5th in the league in scoring with 23.2 points/game
· 10th in the league in offensive rebounding with 86 offensive boards
· 9th in the league in PER
· 4th in the league in Win Shares
For those wondering:
PER – Player Efficiency Rating; a measure of per-minute production standardized such that the league average is 15
Win Shares – an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player
So, lets take a look at the comparison of PER and Win Shares between Aldridge and Drexler over the years.
Scoring is just one component to being a great player, with PER and Win Shares being more meaningful statistics in showing just how great a player truly is.
So, with that…
PER
|
Age |
Clyde Drexler |
|
|
21 |
14.5 |
17.1 |
|
22 |
19.7 |
18.5 |
|
23 |
19.8 |
19.1 |
|
24 |
20.2 |
18.2 |
|
25 |
24.1 |
21.5 |
|
26 |
23.6 |
24.0* |
|
27 |
22.2 |
|
|
28 |
22.1 |
|
|
29 |
23.6 |
|
|
30 |
20.7 |
|
|
31 |
18.4 |
|
|
32 |
22.7 |
|
|
Career |
21.3 |
19.5 |
*So far this year
Looking at the PER, we see that Aldridge had a much more effective rookie season, with Clyde being a below average player with a PER of 14.5. However, Clyde has the advantage for the next 4 years.
The thing that sticks out to me is that Clyde’s best year(in PER) is 24.1, which is right where Aldridge’s PER is this year(24.0).
Yes, so far this year, Aldridge has been playing with the efficiency as Clyde Drexler’s best year with the Blazers.
Offensive Win Shares
|
Age |
Clyde Drexler |
LaMarcus Aldridge |
|
21 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
|
22 |
4.0 |
3.5 |
|
23 |
3.5 |
6.1 |
|
24 |
6.6 |
5.5 |
|
25 |
9.3 |
7.6 |
|
26 |
8.8 |
3.2* |
|
27 |
7.3 |
|
|
28 |
8.0 |
|
|
29 |
8.3 |
|
|
30 |
3.4 |
|
|
31 |
4.2 |
|
|
32 |
4.4 |
|
|
Career |
68.2 |
28.4 |
*So far this season
Defensive Win Shares
|
Age |
Clyde Drexler |
LaMarcus Aldridge |
|
21 |
1.9 |
1.0 |
|
22 |
3.5 |
2.8 |
|
23 |
3.1 |
3.3 |
|
24 |
3.7 |
3.3 |
|
25 |
3.9 |
3.5 |
|
26 |
3.8 |
1.6* |
|
27 |
4.3 |
|
|
28 |
4.5 |
|
|
29 |
4.5 |
|
|
30 |
2.5 |
|
|
31 |
2.7 |
|
|
32 |
2.1 |
|
|
Career |
40.5 |
15.5 |
*So far this season
I think it’s clear to say that in the first 5 season’ of each player, Clyde clearly provided more to the Blazers on the defensive end. Clyde was an all-around player, and his knack for stealing the ball shows clearly in this graph.
Win Shares
|
Age |
Clyde Drexler |
LaMarcus Aldridge |
|
21 |
2.4 |
3.4 |
|
22 |
7.5 |
6.2 |
|
23 |
6.7 |
9.5 |
|
24 |
10.3 |
8.8 |
|
25 |
13.2 |
11.1 |
|
26 |
12.6 |
4.8* |
|
27 |
11.6 |
|
|
28 |
12.4 |
|
|
29 |
12.8 |
|
|
30 |
6.0 |
|
|
31 |
6.8 |
|
|
32 |
6.5 |
|
|
Career |
108.7 |
43.9 |
*So far this season
Aldridge provided more win shares in their first and third season’, while Clyde provided more win shares in the 2nd, 3rd, and 5th seasons.
Through 5 seasons, which includes Clyde’s best season, Clyde had contributed 40.1 ‘wins’ to the Blazers.
Through 5 seasons, Aldridge has contributed 39.1 ‘wins’ to the Blazers.
Win Shares/48 minutes
|
Age |
Clyde Drexler |
LaMarcus Aldridge |
|
21 |
0.083 |
0.118 |
|
22 |
0.141 |
0.113 |
|
23 |
0.124 |
0.151 |
|
24 |
0.158 |
0.145 |
|
25 |
0.207 |
0.166 |
|
26 |
0.197 |
0.221 |
|
27 |
0.208 |
|
|
28 |
0.209 |
|
|
29 |
0.223 |
|
|
30 |
0.171 |
|
|
31 |
0.14 |
|
|
32 |
0.217 |
|
I just wanted to notice again, with respect to WS/48, that the way Aldridge is playing so far this season is at the same level that Drexler played in his best season. I’m not sure we, as fans, always recognize just how great LaMarcus Aldridge is playing.
In the first 5 seasons, LaMarcus Aldridge has had better seasons than Drexler with respect to PER and Win Shares, and had worse seasons. However, all of the stats are relatively close, with each of them having only slight advantages in their respective years.
Statistically, Clyde is the greatest Blazer of all-time, but Aldridge isn’t far behind, by whatever statistical measure you use (Over their first 5+ seasons).
Lets hope Aldridge continues playing at this high level.
Go Blazers!
Cheers.
35 comments
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Comments
brown noser
"If you can do a half-assed job of anything, you're a one-eyed man in a kingdom of the blind."
by thankyouforblaze on Feb 13, 2012 9:15 PM PST up reply actions
Yep!
Drexler went to a championship series and Walton won it. If Blazers win it Aldridge could arguably be best ever.
Love the focus he’s playing with. He’s a nightmare for the rest of the league. Find someone else that can compliment him with some consistent O and Aldridge might reach that next step.
Rec'd
Your content does a nice job of showing why Aldridge can be a #1 in the NBA, since Clyde Drexler was ours for two Finals runs. We just need a lead guard & center next to him, then focus on role players…
When talking best Blazer of All time I think its 1a)Walton 1b)Drexler, simply because Walton led us to a championship. Aldridge could be 2 after his current contract is over, but if he wins a championship during that time I think he takes over as the Blazer’s G.O.A.T.
"We gotta get this $#!^ together guys!" - Phil
by 420Phenom on Feb 13, 2012 7:22 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Agreed, Walton was the best Blazer of all time in my opinion.
Walton’s zenith was pretty much as good as it gets; sublime basketball. Winning the championship and playing basketball at arguably GOAT level while at his peak. No other Blazer can make either of those claims.
He won the finals MVP, and the next seasons MVP. What other Blazer has ever done either of those things? Without the injuries he gets at least one more ring, minimum.
It’s kind of like comparing the worlds best sprinter, Usain Bolt, to a marathon runner. For the short time Bolt runs there’s nobody better, and we shouldn’t diminish his performance for lack of endurance.
I'm trying to remember
who Clyde had to share the ball with his first couple years, and what pace those teams ran at.
I mean, LMA had to defer to Roy, and given Roy’s style and the pace of the teams during those years, the fact that LMA is right in there is pretty amazing.
He played behind All-Star Jim Paxson his Rookie season...
Calvin Natt was at the SF so he didn’t get as much court time as people thought he deserved. He never played on a Blazer team for a full season that shot fewer than 7189 shots in a season. Most were in the 7300-7500 range. Aldridge has never played on a team that shot more than 6599 shots in a season.
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
It wasn't until his third season he overtook Paxson in MPG.
By that time he was competing with Kiki for shots.
PTB Liberation Day - 2/10/04
great read, rec'd
I really had little idea that LMA was having a season for the record-books in PDX.
Just goes to show you should really learn to appreciate something special when you’ve got it…
"If you can do a half-assed job of anything, you're a one-eyed man in a kingdom of the blind."
by thankyouforblaze on Feb 13, 2012 9:16 PM PST reply actions
Too early.
Sure, Aldridge’s first 5 seasons are comparable to Clyde’s first 5 seasons, statistically speaking. I think it’s just a bit premature to speculate where Aldridge falls on the all-time Blazer list. I’d put Clyde at the top, not so much because how he performed in the first 5 seasons, but rather how he performed over his whole career with the team, including the playoffs.
If the “playoff success” you want me to assume are 3 consecutive conference finals appearances, and two NBA finals appearances, then I’ll be happy to rank him up with Clyde. That’s a tall order to just assume, though. So come 2015, I say Aldridge is a top 10 Blazer with an outside chance of being a top 5.
You act like your comment isn't amazzing in it of itself
“Sure, Aldridge’s first 5 seasons are comparable to Clyde’s first 5 seasons, statistically speaking.”
That’s awesome.
Sure, we want playoff success, and hopefully the Blazers have the same success in Aldridges later years that the Blazers enjoyed in Drexler’s later years.
by BlazersMakr on Feb 14, 2012 11:36 AM PST up reply actions
Hence the "too early" part.
Hoping for playoff success isn’t the same as attaining playoff success, a large part of why Drexler is considered the best Blazer. If you want to assume that Aldridge leads this team to two NBA Final appearances, maintains a PER of 20-23, and win shares in the double digits for several consecutive years, then yes, he is as good as Clyde. Too bad that’s a world of make-believe.
Otherwise, what we have seen from Aldridge (again, statistically speaking), is comparable to what we saw from Rasheed Wallace, Rod Strickland, Terry Porter, Kiki Vandaweghe, Arvydas Sabonis, and Brandon Roy, just to name a few. All Blazer greats, all arguably in the top 10, all with great statistic achievements during stretches of their Blazer careers, and all with varying degrees of playoff success.
Would I label any of the above as “awesome” or “amazing,” particularly in an attempt to place them on the same level as Drexler or Walton? Nope. Then again, I may be more fastidious in my usage of terms like “amazing,” than you.
Good work!
Do advanced historical basketball stats take era of play into account? I’d have to think Clyde would score more today given the different standards for calling fouls on penetrators. And Aldridge is a talented big right now when it seems that fewer teams have big defensive stalwarts (no Mutumbo, Robinson, Olajuwon, Ewing, etc.) Of course that’s assuming those players would have matched up on Aldridge; if he played with Kevin Duckworth he’d be matched up against the smaller, physical PFs from those days, like Mason or Rodman or Buck.
I believe Kareem has said Aldridge reminds him of his own style of play, and that’s pretty high praise. If he keeps developing his low-post game (we know he can shoot) he might end up becoming a Rasheed Wallace with grit, the guy Sir Charles once said could have been the best player in the NBA if he cared. It’s also impressive how he’s flourished this year without a lot of outside shooting to keep the defense honest. Clyde was the unquestioned #2 player at his position in his time. Will LMA be the #2 PF, or even #1 by the end? Let’s see . . .
Steve Goodman lives.
Well the national media is ready to annoint Griffin and Love ahead of LA
So he has his work ahead of him. Would really help if his teamates would chip in…
Also, I wonder how Bigs from the past would do now...
considering that it seems like the court tends to be spread so much more. And with other Bigs developing really good outside shots, they can’t just pack the paint anymore. Just something to think about. It goes both ways. Rules changed for sure, but it’s tough to compare eras.
BATUUUUM SHAKALAKA!
Hmm...
…I know it’s human nature to want to define and compare. (I guess) Even though I’ve never been much into comparisons. IMO the story will be written, the comparisons have little value.
Go ahead, no knock, I guess fans enjoy it. But I don’t get this recent almost subconcious desire it seems for fans to compare Aldridge to Drexler.
Sure you can compare all the stats in the world. But the future? Is unknown. In the end the player Aldridge becomes and was for The Blazers will IMO be inevitably quite a bit different from the player Drexler was for The Blazers. This is no knock on either player, just the nature of separate players, with separate and different circumstance, playing in different time frames.
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
Using comparisons to show how truly special Aldridge is to our franchise
When you see that Aldridge is currently playing at a PER equal to the greatest PER ever in Blazer history, you can’t deny his value.
When you see that Aldridge is currently playing at a Win Shares/48min equal to the greatest ever in Blazer history, you can’t deny his value.
When you see how much Aldridge is contributing to the Blazers(statistically), you can’t deny the eye test.
Aldridge is a beast, and he’s our beast; lets honor that fact. The mere fact that we can state that he is in the same class of Drexler should be enough for all Blazer fans to love him.
by BlazersMakr on Feb 14, 2012 11:34 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Compare away....
…if that’s what rings your bell. But I didn’t need comparisons or stats to show me either how special Drexler was…nor how important or “special” Aldridge is to this current team.
I “almost” have to wonder if this desire to compare Aldridge, isn’t indicative of a subconcious insecurity about Aldridge? Seems almost like a fanbase desperately trying to reassure itself that we do indeed have a franchise quality All-Star.
Admittedly? I watch the games, I follow the team. But I’m not a big compare stats guy.
IMO…Aldridge is the best player The Blazers have…and one of the best PF’s in the league.
Drexler? Was the best player The Blazers had…and at different times…one of the best players in the UNIVERSE.
That’s what I know…and I don’t really need stats to back me up on that.
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
Aldridge is no Drexler
Aldridge is good, very good. All-Star backup good. But he’s not All-Star Starter good. He’s not WCF good. He’s not NBA Finals good. He’s not NBA Dunk Contest good. He’s just not that level of player. Drexler was NBA 50 Greatest Players good. Aldridge isn’t in the top 500.
Yet.
There’s a chance Aldridge gets there, but I fear that he will just be a good player on a borderline team for awhile. People talk about him needing a better point guard, but I think he needs a better GM. He needs a better roster around him, and that’s the GM’s fault. And Oden’s (sorry I just had to through that out there, based on the poll option)
basketball-reference.com's HOF probability
After only 5 seasons of work, Aldridge is currently 53rd of active NBA players with regards to HOF probability.
He is 321st(so, in the top 500 alltime) of career NBA players with regards to HOF probability after just 5 years.
He’s got a long way to go, and he’ll need some playoff success, but he’s a great player.
I think he is All-star starter good, and if it wasn’t a popularity contest with Blake Griffin, he would be. You can have Blake Griffin’s flash, I’ll take LA’s dominance…
by BlazersMakr on Feb 14, 2012 11:49 AM PST up reply actions
Kevin Love is top 5
…..not to be a pessimist
"Some things you just can't question. Like you can't question why two plus two is four. So don't question it, don't try to look it up. I don't know who made it, all I know is it was put in my head that two plus two is four. So certain things happen. Why does it rain? Why am I so sexy? I don't know."
Shaq
by LeGarrette Blount's Right Fist on Feb 15, 2012 12:49 AM PST up reply actions
They should start aldridge at center.
not like you have defense at the all-star game anyway
"Wide, girthy. Just like a Rhino. Sometimes my horns are visible."
Kevin Love
is a loser, just check his NBA career win/loss record.
Wow
Can’t believe how many people hate him here. He’s a terrific player. Franchise guy, better as a second option? I dunno. But as someone who sees a few TWolves games, he’s not a stat hog the way Rodman’s rebounding sometimes was — he’s a team guy who gives max effort.
Steve Goodman lives.
by twinsbrewer on Feb 15, 2012 10:58 PM PST up reply actions
Marcus Camby is the #1 blazer of all time.
Can’t forget Z-Bo, Ruben Patterson, Damon Stoudamire or the rest of those “blazers” that came before him though.
RIP CITY - We're back!
by CyclonicWinds on Feb 14, 2012 11:25 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Incoming rec from "420Phenom"
in 3….2….1….
by BlazersMakr on Feb 14, 2012 11:34 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Don't forget the big fella
Camby’s got nothin’ on Walton. You better Recognize The Big Red-Head!
by unblindloyalty on Feb 16, 2012 3:55 PM PST up reply actions
Aldridge still has long way to go to get to Clyde's level
The one piece of info that is difficult to account for is the overall level of league play during Clyde’s time. There were much better teams during that era with many more good players and a bunch of Hall of Fame players (think 1st dream team). Aldridge is playing during a time that I consider to be the least talented era in NBA history…despite Lebron and an aging Kobe. Howard is the best center in the league now when 20 years ago he would be maybe 5th
Also, Clyde played with a much better supporting cast which I view as the team not having to rely wholly on Clyde like the Blazers have to now with Aldridge
"Aldridge is playing during a time that I consider to be the least talented era in NBA history"
Talent wise, the NBA was at its worst pre-merger in the mid-’70s.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mlktiS0oUEE
Performance wise, the NBA was at its worse during the early years.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54qY7HRx8iI
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFC4Xu4-1c4
To elaborate, I shouldn't've said that talent was at its worst in the mid-'70s prior to the ABA merger.
Instead, I should’ve said talent was at its thinnest during that time period. Talent, like performance, was at by far its worst during the league’s formative years, which was the late-‘40s/early-’50s Mikan era.
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