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Recent draft history part of the problem


Portland has made the playoffs for three straight seasons, yet the team is still hurting for a point guard, as well as a young big man to play alongside LaMarcus Aldridge. The Blazers seemed to have it all figured out after drafting Brandon Roy, Aldridge and Greg Oden in a two-year span, and were the "hot" young team that many pundits had as a future NBA title contender. A degenerative knee condition has already ended Brandon Roy's career after three All-Star Game appearances, and Greg Oden has played in less than a quarter of the team's games since being drafted #1 overall, leaving Aldridge as the face of the franchise.

Aldridge has been playing at an All-Star level the last year and a half, and was just announced as a reserve in this years' game while averaging 23.3 points, 8.5 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game. Part of the problem for Portland has been its bad performance in recent drafts.

In 2007, Portland won the NBA Draft lottery and selected former Ohio State center Greg Oden. Oden was widely viewed as a game-changer in the middle, who at 7'0", 255 pounds, had the size and athleticism that had many believing he was a once-in-a-generation type of player. Injuries have seen Oden on the sideline since fracturing his kneecap in December of 2009. Here's is the team's draft history since the 2004 season.

2004

PG Sebastian Telfair, 13th overall

SF/PF Viktor Khryapa, 22nd overall

SG/SF Sergei Monia, 23rd overall

C Ha Seung-Jin, 47th overall

Analysis: Among the players the Blazers could have drafted instead of this current crop include Al Jefferson (15th), Josh Smith (17th), J.R. Smith (18th), Jameer Nelson (20th), Kevin Martin (26th) Anderson Varejao (31st) and Trevor Ariza (44th). Only one player is still in the league (Telfair), though Khryapa was used in a 2006 Draft day trade that landed Portland LaMarcus Aldridge.

Grade: D-

2005

SG/SF Martell Webster, 6th overall

PG Jarrett Jack, 22nd overall

Analysis: The Blazers chose to trade the #3 overall pick to Utah for the 6th overall pick and 27th overall pick (which Portland flipped, along with the 35th pick for Jarrett Jack), passing on both Deron Williams and Chris Paul. Among the other players that could have been taken include Andrew Bynum (10th), Danny Granger (17th), David Lee (30th), Monta Ellis (40th), Lou Williams (45th) and Marcin Gortat (57th). Jack has been playing well this season replacing Chris Paul at point guard in New Orleans.

Grade: C

2006

PF LaMarcus Aldridge, 2nd overall

SG Brandon Roy, 6th overall

PG Sergio Rodriguez, 27th overall

PF Joel Freeland, 30th overall

Analysis: Portland wheeled-and-dealed throughout the evening, including deals for Aldridge (Tyrus Thomas, selected 4th overall, along with Viktor Khryapa) and Roy (Randy Foye, selected 7th overall, and cash considerations). Between the 27th and 60th pick, some others that could have been in PDX include Paul Millsap (47th) and Leon Powe (49th). Overall, you really couldn't have asked for a better draft than this, as both Roy (3x) and Aldridge (1x) have been selected as All-Stars.

Grade: A

2007

C Greg Oden, 1st overall

SG Rudy Fernandez, 22nd overall

PG Petteri Koponen, 30th overall

PF Josh McRoberts, 37th overall

PG Taurean Green, 52nd overall

Analysis: The Blazers won the draft lottery and selected Oden ahead of now perennial All-Star Kevin Durant with the first pick, which was a franchise-altering decision. Fernandez was much more sizzle than susbstance in Portland, and will be going back to play for Spanish team Real Madrid after he finishes this season with the Denver Nuggets. McRoberts has been a solid role player in the NBA for the Pacers and Lakers, while Koponen had his draft rights traded on draft night, and Green washed out in just a little over a season. Others that could have been chosen include Durant (2nd), Al Horford (3rd), Mike Conley Jr. (4th), Joakim Noah (9th), Rodney Stuckey (15th), Carl Landry (31st), Glen Davis (35th) and Marc Gasol (48th).

Grade: D

2008

PG/SG Jerryd Bayless, 11th overall

SG/SF Nicolas Batum, 25th overall

Analysis: The Blazers were again active on Draft day, sending Jack, McRoberts and the draft rights to Brandon Rush (13th overall) for Ike Diogu and the draft rights of Bayless. They also acquired the draft rights to Batum for a package that included the rights to Donte Greene (28th overall) and Joey Dorsey (33rd overall). Bayless is a rotation player for the Raptors, while Batum has started the majority of his time in Portland, though is currently a sixth man type player for Portland. Solid draft for the Blazers.

Grade: B+

2009

SF Victor Claver, 22nd overall

PF Jeff Pendegraph, 31st overall

PF Dante Cunningham, 33rd overall

PG Patty Mills, 55th overall

Analysis: The Blazers traded up two spots with the Mavericks to draft Claver, who has yet play for Portland. The Cunningham pick came from the Clippers in a previous trade, and Mills was acquired in a three-team deal with Denver and Chicago. Pendegraph is an end-of-the-bench player in Indiana, while Cunningham was a part of the deal that brought Gerald Wallace to PDX, and is currently a role player for Memphis. Mills signed with a Chinese team during the NBA lockout, and will likely try to sign with an NBA team soon. Both Cunningham and Mills provided the Blazers energy off the bench from 2009 to early 2011. Other players that could have been drafted include Taj Gibson (26th), Toney Douglas (29th), DeJuan Blair (37th) and Jonas Jerebko (39th).

Grade: C-

2010

SF Luke Babbitt, 16th overall

SG Elliot Williams, 22nd overall

PG Armon Johnson, 34th overall

Analysis: The Blazers acquired F Ryan Gomes and the draft rights to Luke Babbitt in a trade with Minnesota for Martell Webster. Babbitt has yet to find any consistent minutes, and has yet to prove he's an NBA ready player. Williams missed nearly his entire rookie season dealing with knee injuries, but is seeing spot minutes at shooting guard for Portland. Johnson made a splash early in his rookie season, but careless ball-handling and questionable shot selection landed him either on the end of the bench, or in the NBA Developmental League. Other options included Jordan Crawford (27th), Greivis Vasquez (28th) and Landry Fields (39th).

Grade: C-

2011

PG Nolan Smith, 21st overall

SG Jon Diebler, 51st overall

Analysis: Smith has seen spot minutes behind Raymond Felton at point guard, but is still working on transitioning from playing largely shooting guard in his four years at Duke. Diebler is currently playing in Greece, but could be a solid situational shooter in the league, as he shot 50.2% from deep in his senior season at Ohio State. Current rookies that could've been in Portland include MarShon Brooks (25th), Chandler Parsons (38th), Jeremy Tyler (39th), Josh Harrellson (45th) and Isaiah Thomas (60th).

Grade: Incomplete

Final Thoughts

Of the 25 players on this list, there are seven players currently on the roster, but only three of those that were selected in 2009 or earlier (Aldridge, Batum and Oden). There are three that have yet to come over from Europe (Koponen, Freeland and Claver), which doesn't include Jon Diebler, who is playing in Greece this season. Two players (Roy and Aldridge) have been selected as All-Stars in that time frame. Seven players are currently out of the NBA (Khryapa; Monia; Seung-Jin; Roy: injury; Rodriguez; Green; Mills: signed overseas), and only two are starters on their respective teams (Aldridge and Jack). Ultimately, I believe the front office has to do a better job of finding quality NBA players in order for Portland to be able to go from a playoff also-ran to a legitimate contender.


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i think the failing of the last 4-5 drafts have been well discussed here.

"But if Ding Dongs and prime rib were the path to NBA pivot stardom we'd all be wearing the uniform." -Dave

by douglast on Feb 13, 2012 11:37 AM PST reply actions  

adding my grades, with the benefit of hindsight

2006: A-, Roy’s knee issues weren’t exactly unknown. Maybe Gay would have been the better pick long-term?
2007: F No other way to rate this draft, given the huge mistake at #1
2008: B+ Batum was a find in the late first, and no one picked after Bayless has outshone him
2009: F Claver was just a waste of a pick, and while not picking Blair in the 1st was defensible, passing on him twice int he 2nd round was not.
2010: C- Jury is still out a bit, but Babbit looks like a flop and Eric Bledsoe was still on the board
2011: The Smith pick remains a head scratcher, especially since he can’t even get off the bench on a team with one (really struggling) point guard.

"But if Ding Dongs and prime rib were the path to NBA pivot stardom we'd all be wearing the uniform." -Dave

by douglast on Feb 13, 2012 11:46 AM PST reply actions  

"No one picked after Bayless has outshone him"?

Unless you’re talking about in the 2-3 following picks, come on. Hibbert at 17 is probably looking at a nice big extension this offseason, and just looking at the draft overall, there were 22 players total taken after Bayless that have played decent roles and averaged more WS/minute, including Ibaka, Deandre Jordan, Ryan Anderson, George Hill, and Asik (who we also took and immediately traded as part of KP’s quest to stockpile as many 2nd rounders as possible).

Taking Bayless certainly made sense at the position, so it’s hard to fault the Blazers for it (much like Oden), but I think it’s hard to argue at this point that we couldn’t have done better with that pick, even just by keeping Jack and taking one of those other guys.

by Royster on Feb 13, 2012 12:50 PM PST up reply actions   2 recs

to be honest

I didn’t do my own research, just used the names listed in the OP. Clearly, you are correct.

"But if Ding Dongs and prime rib were the path to NBA pivot stardom we'd all be wearing the uniform." -Dave

by douglast on Feb 13, 2012 2:27 PM PST up reply actions  

Lefty...

Heck yeah! The draft has been mostly a nightmare for the Blazers. Hmmm, maybe that’s why Allen thinks we don’t need a GM. But then, maybe he really made most of the picks in the end.

It seems the Blazers could have done just as well if they had a chimpanzee make the picks. And, I hear they work cheap!

by kuhnsmith on Feb 13, 2012 5:06 PM PST reply actions  

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