Blazers are closer than most think.
by bigbruner5 on Feb 12, 2012 8:29 PM PST
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PrintAfter yet another agonizing close loss last night I found myself having a certain feeling of deja vu. I felt as if I had seen the Blazers have a game that is completely winnable going into the last 4 minutes only to be on the losing end when the final buzzer sounds, so that got me to go back and look at some of the Blazers losses this year:
- Jan. 1st vs. LA Clips 88-93
- Jan. 11th vs. Orlando 104-107
- Jan. 14th vs. Houston 105-107
- Jan. 18th vs. Atlanta 89-92
- Jan. 21st vs. Detroit 91-94
- Jan. 25th vs. Golden St. 93-101
- Jan. 30th vs. Utah 89-93
- Feb. 2nd vs. Sacramento 92-95
- Feb. 6th vs. OKC 107-111
- Feb. 8th vs. Houston 96-103
- Feb. 11th vs. Dallas 94-97
In doing the math on those losses it turns into 11 losses by a combined 45 points. Looking around the NBA at a few teams that have around the same record as the Blazers and how they have fared in their losses the Blazers compare very favorably. L*kers 12 losses by 95 points, Nuggets 12 losses by 97, Utah 12 losses by 132. In a day and age where there is statistics for everything including the player that has the most points in the 4th quarter of games played on even numbered days that is right handed (which interestingly enough happens to be Luke Babbit) who knows if this stat even means anything.
There are purist out there that will conclude that a loss is loss no matter by how many points it is, which is correct and I'm not saying that the Blazers should win every close game that they are ever in, but I see it as something more. It's not a huge secret that since the days of Roy (teardrop, sad face) the Blazers haven't had a scorer that they can rely on in the 4th or that they will even agree to get the ball to. Now I'm not here to rip Coach McMillian, Lamarcus, Crawford, or anybody else all I am stating is that the Blazers currently stand at 15-13 and 8th place in the West. I just don't think that it is out of the realm of possibility to suggest that if the Blazers could find a player (whether it be in the trade market, free agency, someone finally stepping up etc.) that will be the man in the 4th quarter particularly in the closing minutes of close games that they couldn't be a 20 win team right now.
I am not an irrational fan that believes that the Blazers are the best team in the NBA, they have some glaring weaknesses besides not having a scorer in late game, close situations that they will need to address hopefully sooner than later. We as Blazer fans are in a very peculiar situation, one that I feel is the most difficult to deal with as a sports fan. Our team isn't at the top of the mountain where it is easy to be a fan and where everyone and their great aunt seems to suddenly love *cough OKC *cough LAC and they aren't at the bottom either where you expect disappointment from them and aren't really let down. They are right in the middle where each loss crushes your soul and you swear that you are done with them only to find yourself on the edge of your seat at the end of the game only to go through that viscous cycle of despair again.
If reading this post does anything for you I hope that it makes you see that this team may not be as sexy (take that in whatever way you would like) as the L*kers, Heat, or Bulls I feel they are a lot closer than most people think. Please keep in mind that this was a post of optimism in a time that many fans will be looking for answers. Thanks.
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I've seen plenty of posts since our good start
about how the schedule favors us. I wanted to believe it, but the proof is in the pudding. We need a lead guard before this team has a chance to be anything other then mediocre.
"We gotta get this $#!^ together guys!" - Phil
This is purely premature in thinking
and seeing as Portland has a hard time attracting big name/big ego talent, but there has been reports of Brandon Jennings wanting out of Milwaukee. Not even beginning to analyze how he would fit in with this team, he is a quick, young, guard that can shoot and attack the hoop
I read he wanted a bigger market and Portland is no bigger market than Milwauee.
BURN THIS MOTHA DOWN!!! No one likes being the Dallas Cowboys of the playoffs every year.
by FPS NorthWest on Feb 12, 2012 10:29 PM PST up reply actions
Hey a gal can dream can't she
it’s funny how everyone sees Portland as this little ol small market team, but when players come here they fall in love with the place and never want to leave
Dreams are what this team and site are made of.
But with Jennings, you just have to look at the body of work to know what he is after. IF we managed to get him here and he happened to like it here, it wouldn’t matter because he wants fame, fortune, and to be an icon with the likes of Wall Rose.
I think Deron Williams would be more of our type of player. He just wants to win regardless of market, but I think he prefers the NYC type of life style.
BURN THIS MOTHA DOWN!!! No one likes being the Dallas Cowboys of the playoffs every year.
by FPS NorthWest on Feb 12, 2012 10:56 PM PST up reply actions
Deron Williams is my favorite point guard too
and if he does go to NYC, I’m going to be the first to start the Jeremy Lin to Portland movement!!!!!
"but I think he prefers the NYC type of life style."
Or, as indicated by reports, he plans to go home to Dallas, which is understandable. For that, I wish him well.
It's small in market size,
meaning endorsement money spent here on athletes is a fraction of what it is in LA, Chicago, NYC, Miami, Dallas, Houston, etc. Our population is simply not very big, therefore our total advertising base is not very big. It’s nothing personal against our fair city.
A ‘high’ profile athlete in Portland is also going to garner far less national attention and miss out on quite a few national endorsements. Opportunities to negate this loss in attention are currently the all star game, the olympics, and your team just being really damn good. Durant is had all three and doesn’t REALLY need to play in NYC to attract national brands, although he would certainly have more opportunity for localized ad money if he played there.
Basketball is a job, first and foremost. These guys have to be smart about the parts of their careers they can control. If that means playing somewhere for more money and ad opportunities, I can’t blame a dude like Jennings.
Come on, let's all hug it out.
by Hipster Olympic Team! on Feb 13, 2012 10:11 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I completely understand that and I'm a fan so I'm allowed to be irrational, but
I guess its just the future school teacher in me that is only going to be makin around 40,000 grand a year that tells myself that the $10,000,000 to $12,000,000 he would be making in Portland, along with being on a winning team, while playing in front of fans that would adore you would be more than enough.
Wouldn't "40,000 grand" equal $40,000,000?
40 grand (a.k.a, 40k), on the other hand, would equal $40,000.
On that note, here’s a total mind bender for everybody: Did you know a million seconds is approximately 12 days, while a billion seconds is approximately 31 years? Craziness, eh.
Were close,
but without a doubt a player or two away. This is not a good team right now, deserving of 8th in the west. There is no way we are going to “turn” it around and start climbing our way up the standings. So, what is better for this teams future? Making the playoffs at the bottom of the bracket and getting swept in the first round. Or missing the playoffs all together and hopefully drafting a point guard who can make an immediate impact. Because as stated above, we are not going to attract a big time player in free agency.
I would say that we are a good team
a very inconsistent team, but still very capable of being a top 4/5 team in the West. When things were clicking at the beginning of the season there wasn’t a game on the schedule that you couldn’t see the Blazers winning. Now whether you contribute the way they are playing to fatigue from the shortened season or people figuring this team out I don’t think that anyone would have thought that Raymond Felton would be having these kind of woes as a seasoned point guard, or that Wes and Crawford would be shooting this poorly for a extended period of time. The Blazers are far from a championship team, but with the talent that they have playing to their potential could make it out of the first round.
No they are not playing to their potential, but staring us in the face is our lack of outside shooters. I blame alot of this on our point guard. Andre made Matthews better, he made everyone better. Look at Matthews now, gone is the spot up shooting, now he has to create off the dribble because no one is delivering him the ball in the right places at the right times. LMA is the same player, why is Camby the only player on the team able to make the read and deliver the ball at the rim for a alley oop? I’d say this team is a point guard away from a contender. Had high hopes for Raymond, so disappointed in how he is playing. But there is nothing in me that believes he is just going to turn it around.
I'm not someone that likes to blame losses or successes on only one player
but Felton is making it very hard for me not to. It’s not just his complete lack of outside shooting, he is making some inexcusable mistakes at very crucial times in the game when we don’t have anyone that can take care of the ball.
LaMarcus Aldridge, however, is far more productive this season than ever before.
The point being is a player produces not because of his teammates — good, bad, or indifferent — but because of himself.
"Or missing the playoffs all together and hopefully drafting a point guard who can make an immediate impact."
For whatever it’s worth, 2012 will be a weak draft for point guards. A lot of bigs and wings — particularly 4s and 3s — will go high in this year’s draft.
Point margin takes this into account.
If you look at a point margin based ranking like BBR’s SRS:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2012.html
We’re actually ranked really highly, because we’ve had a few wins by large margin and many losses by small margins.
Now, do I think we’re the 5th-best team in the league? No way. But the truth likely lies somewhere in between – if you run those 15 close games over and over again, we likely win 8 or 9 more often than say 5 (just guessing numbers). Then again, it could be that we’re really that bad at the end of games, but I think things will return to the mean eventually.
Another statistical measure, Wins Produced, also has the Blazers at a much-higher-than-reality record:
http://www.thenbageek.com/teams/por
We’ll see!
Considering purchasing a ticket on the Rebuild Now bandwagon.
Yeah, Portland's pythag record is 4 wins higher than its actual win-loss record due to point differential.
Margin of victory aside, though, this team wouldn’t be any more of a contender at 19-9 than at 15-13. Come playoff time, Portland will once again be fodder for an opening-round opponent.
At 19-9
We would probably face a weaker opponent in the first round, but once we faced an actual contender, most likely we get taken down.
"Wide, girthy. Just like a Rhino. Sometimes my horns are visible."
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