Pelton: The NBA Annotation

At Basketball Prospectus, it's an article by Kevin Pelton about Daniel Kahneman's book, Thinking, Fast and Slow, and how it relates to the NBA.

ed: bumped to front page

4 months ago AK1984 7 comments 3 recs |

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that book sounds interesting.

Chapter 32: Keeping score

Key quote: “Decision makers know that they are prone to regret, and the anticipation of that painful emotion plays a part in many decisions.”

Here, to me, is the most relevant discussion at all to how coaches approach the decision-making process. We all seek to avoid regret, and one way to do so is by avoiding risks. When a football coach plays for a field goal his kicker misses, it’s easy to explain away the outcome as a failure by the player rather than the decision-making process. If the coach aggressively throws for the end zone, by contrast, the possibility of a turnover or a sack is largely on the coach and is likely to produce regret.

sounds like a coach we know. hence why we’re not in rebuild mode. it’s much easier on everyone to just stay somewhat competitive (never Championship-bound), including myself.

"If you can do a half-assed job of anything, you're a one-eyed man in a kingdom of the blind."

by thankyouforblaze on Feb 1, 2012 1:00 AM PST reply actions

In real life, I succumb to being too risk averse myself.

While it might be true that not trying and failing hurts less than trying and failing, it also gives you no chance ever succeeding. If you fail, then you got to clear the deck, start over, and try again. Keep on trying ’til you get it right, too.

"I Am Mine"

by AK1984 on Feb 1, 2012 1:44 AM PST up reply actions

risk can be exciting, and rewarding

as well as painful. I regret more risks not taken than ones avoided.
Get an answer, persue. History of many great people have great failures, but they kept comming on – to fame.

by Berkeley on Feb 1, 2012 10:18 AM PST up reply actions

that Roosevelt quote sums it up pretty well:

Far better is it to dare mighty things, to win glorious triumphs, even though checked by failure…than to rank with those poor spirits who neither enjoy much nor suffer much, because they live in a gray twilight that knows not victory nor defeat.

by Berkeley on Feb 1, 2012 10:22 AM PST up reply actions

For every famous person, there are millions upon millions of those who are of no consequence.

Not everyone can be famous, either, for then there’d be no such thing.

"I Am Mine"

by AK1984 on Feb 1, 2012 7:48 PM PST up reply actions

Borrowed this from my dad when I was visiting recently and read a few chapters— been meaning to read the whole thing. Its fascinating stuff and relevant to so many things.

by jksnake99 on Feb 1, 2012 4:41 PM PST reply actions

Great book

Kahneman and the late Amos Tversky were forefathers of much psychology research that helped set the table for, among other things, the highly popular field of “behavioral economics.”

Highly recommended read and it’s neat to see Pelton find ways to apply this stuff to basketball.

It’s premise about how our intuitive— but error prone— mind feeds bits of info to our our more logical— but lazy— systems so that we can create our own narrative that often is full of mistakes is something enacted over and over again both by basketball fans as well as by “analysts.”

And also Mike Rice, but that would just be taking the fun out of it all.

Removing all the false narratives seems like it would also take more than half of the fun out of armchair fandom and watching the game of basketball itself. We live for believing in things like the hot hand or to get caught up in the “halo effect” for a player, coach or GM. On the other hand, maybe sometimes the truth is actually more interesting, but I suppose that’s a different debate.

by HowlinJoeWolf on Feb 2, 2012 12:51 AM PST reply actions