The Blazers' Progress So Far: Successes, Weaknesses, and What It All Means
by Dave on Jan 6, 2012 10:01 AM PST
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PrintLet's catch up with a summary of recent developments in the young season and look at what they may portend. We'll start with the good side of the ledger, rapidly filling.
The 5-1 record is fantastic. Some are decrying the schedule as "weak" so far but I see no reason to say so except the obvious admission that the Blazers won't win 5 of every 6 games for the remainder of the season. At the beginning of this odd, lockout season it's hard to judge what's what. The start of every season is filled with random play but it's taken to an extra level in this situation. You can't really say that Oklahoma City is going to play as foolishly as they did in their loss to the Blazers in every game this season. Nor can you say the Clippers will play as well. The good teams may not be at their peak yet but the bad teams aren't at their nadir either. On the balance, even with homecourt advantage, the Blazers have played a tough enough schedule to credit this 5-1 record as both legit and quite good. You can only play the games you're given in any case. Winning them is enough without extra justification.
Also to the good is team camaraderie, a development which showed itself from the first game of pre-season. It looks legit. This team is playing with energy and unselfishness every night. Combined with the new, veteran look of the rotation the Blazers have a powerful advantage over teams still looking to find themselves. That has included the Thunder and Lakers though both are ostensibly more talented squads and likely bound for greater glory in the playoffs than the Blazers. Right now Portland is holding the right cards and playing them well.
Three huge on-court developments have typified Portland's development. The team takes pride in defense. Everybody on the floor seems to be making a commitment. When a high defender breaks down Portland's backstop guys have been quick and willing to cover. That's the secret to winning more games than you should in this league. Portland is transcending potential rebounding deficiencies the same way. 3-4 Blazers seem to swarm any contested rebound. None of them would be capable of winning them individually with any consistency. Together they're producing enough rebounds to stay in the game and support their style of play. Thirdly, the Blazers have committed to an up-tempo game typified by converting defense into offense. When they're at their best everybody is running following rebounds. Portland caught the Lakers flat-footed repeatedly in the third-quarter surge a night ago. The Thunder couldn't keep them from getting inside with dives and passes either. The faster tempo and easier looks have converted a potentially fragile (if talented) offensive bunch into a powerhouse.
At this point you have to give a huge hand to the players, the coaching staff, and the front office crew who crafted Portland's off-season acquisitions. Everybody seems to have done the best with what is available and the results have been good.
Nonetheless, the basic issues the team faces have not changed. A half-dozen games early in the season can't mask that. Indeed, they've highlighted it further.
Click through to read more.
For all the success and excitement, the Achilles Heel of this year's team is that they will not end up controlling their own destiny as the season progresses. One of the brilliant characteristics of Brandon Roy, even in his half-speed condition, was that he gave you the chance to win any game, anywhere no matter how it was going. With him in the lineup you always had an escape as he could wrest away the game by himself. Therefore the Blazers always controlled their own fate...though Roy obviously couldn't make good on that promise every game.
This group depends as much on opponents' mistakes as their own prowess. Portland's interior game is weak on both ends of the court. They have zero low post players. Their inside scoring is predicated on getting LaMarcus Aldridge the ball on the alley-oop or on his willingness to bang inside and his ability to finish when he does so, both of which are in question. Portland's perimeter players are, for the most part, crippled by a lack of driving skill and/or the inability to finish on the drive in all but the most permissive situations. This leaves the team dependent on the jumper in the halfcourt, an inherently precarious offensive strategy.
The Blazers also require multiple defenders and rebounders against any post player with size. This has worked so far due to disorganized, in some cases lackadaisical, play by teams sporting such players. That will not be the case all season. Portland's ability to stop the inside shot will be sorely tested as soon as the league rights itself and starts to figure them out.
The Blazers' saving grace has been their pace. Their faster tempo depends on great defense, good rebounding, generating turnovers, and getting down the floor into early offense if not a flat-out break. So far the Blazers have had adequate rebounding and turnover-generation in spades. While their defense has succeeded in those departments the actual percentage defense has been so-so. If the Blazers weren't forcing turnovers and nabbing rebounds with alacrity their defense would look average at best.
Look again at the Blazers strengths, their keys to victory: turnover generation, running, rebounding despite the lack of a clear rebounding leader, inside scoring without a bankable low-post player. All of those things are relatively easy for an opponent to take away. Take care of the ball, rebound well, get back on defense, follow cutters...that's it. It's practically Middle School Basketball 101. Teams are not doing these things consistently right now, in part because the Blazers are taking them out of their game, in part because it's so early in the year, and in part because some of these teams are just bad. None of those things will hold true forever. As soon as the league gets wind of Portland's needs they're going to compensate and the good and/or focused teams are going to prevent the Blazers from playing the type of game that's generating wins for them now.
Teams are also going to step up the pressure on Portland's interior defenders, in particular trying to strand Camby on an island or bait him into foul trouble.
Teams are also going to try and exploit the tendency of Portland's guards to turn over the ball, nullifying the benefits of turnover advantage.
All of this together is going to be a whole new shooting match, one which this 5-1 start does not foreshadow on the surface.
The Blazers remind me of a Dutch professional combat sport fighter by the name of Melvin Manhoef. He hasn't been in the U.S. much that I know of so you may not have heard of him. He kickboxes, does MMA, an all-around guy. He's talented. He's strong and cut. He's fierce. He's opportunistic, with serious one-punch K.O. power. In fact his knockout-to-victory ratio is enormous, among the highest in the world. He's the real deal. Except he lacks a couple of key qualities, including some basic defense. He absolutely kills lesser fighters and unprepared fighters. But when he gets in there against a guy who knows what he's doing in MMA, for instance, that guy will just let him throw his punch, duck most of the force, and then slap an armbar on him and get the submission...a basic submission at that. That's exactly how the Blazers look right now: talented, powerful, intimidating, lots of K.O. potential, but also flawed in a couple of basic ways that will make them vulnerable to good teams no matter how hard and often they throw punches.
The issue, obviously, is that as the season progresses the Blazers will face more good and/or prepared teams. The bigger issue is that in the playoffs they'll face one by default....a team that has nothing to do all day but figure out how to prepare for and exploit the team's flaws for seven games. I still don't see the Blazers coming out of that kind of situation intact. Other teams are going to have more enforceable, reliable ways to win that don't depend on the Blazers messing up as much as the Blazers depend on them messing up and that will probably be the end of the story.
Therefore despite the wins and the hot start, the overall forecast for the team hasn't changed: good enough to make the playoffs, probably losing in the first round, the second if they can claim a high seed in the regular season.
The best chance to change that outcome with the current personnel, short of the entire league developing a permanent blind spot to Portland's style, is for the Blazer guards and small forwards--Felton, Matthews, Crawford, Batum, Wallace--to become so practiced and deadly at the open three that the halfcourt floor gets spread wide on every possession. Theoretically that's possible. If a bunch of these guys start shooting .370 and above from distance the middle opens up for Aldridge's moves and the drives of Felton, Crawford, and Batum. At that point the interior scoring issue lessens and the offense starts looking good no matter what the pace. Then you can concentrate on taking good care of the ball yourself and consider those turnovers and fast break points frosting on the cake instead of the main course upon which you depend for your edge.
Another chance would be Aldridge all of a sudden deciding he loves the low post. He's capable but that's not his preferred game and he may take too much of a beating there to function well for a full season.
This assumes that the roster remains relatively the same and intact. Any injury to Camby or Felton would hamstring this team something fierce. Conversely if the Blazers can procure a low-post scorer, another low defender, and/or a good reserve point guard--let alone some kind of star player in the backcourt or at center who can take over games and put them in your control like Roy did--their chances improve greatly. The trick will be acquiring those players without losing chemistry or so much skill and talent that you lose the benefit generated already.
And that's the Blazers' story so far. The immediate significance of this start is wonderful...couldn't be better. The long-term significance is probably less so. This is an exciting team to watch, certainly fun to root for, and they're playing both hard and the right way given their skill set. There's a way to go before they win any greater designation than that and problems to solve before they can be seriously mentioned with the breathlessness that their early record has generated.
--Dave (blazersub@yahoo.com)
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nice analysis
you’ve swayed my opinion…
"I was a victim of a series of accidents, as are we all."
by thankyouforblaze on Jan 6, 2012 1:39 PM PST up reply actions
Maybe more power inside
“Crash” repeatedly took K.D. inside to score late in the Okie game, to pretty much ice it, not including Batum’s 3. So, there is scoring inside when called upon and as part of the balance.
"It's not whether you win or lose, it's whether you win."
by hrtlndblzrfn on Jan 6, 2012 10:13 AM PST reply actions 2 recs
We also have a center tandem that, while ancient, can both bury the mid-range jumper.
Hopefully this will pull opposing centers away from the hoop, allowing Wallace to use his size advantage to get easy buckets.
Doers & Makers > Movers & Shakers
Agree mostly but
I think we still have some playoff’s potential. There are two keys that we have going:
1. While we lack super-stars, we have players that are average to better than average at every position. We will have at least 1 positional mismatch per game. The thing I’ve liked most about this new offense is that we are playing to the mismatches. Crash has had stellar games against sub-par defending 3’s. Felton looked great(though not converting at a high rate) against LA’s slow old 1’s. LaMarcus had a monster game against OKC’s frontline. Crawford has eaten up bad-benches etc…
We have 5 offensive buttons to press: LaMarcus, Crash, Felton, Matthews/Batum(who’s hot) and Crawford and the team has been pressing the correct button when we needed to.
2. We have the potential to be a championship defensive team. We have no weak links to cover for and we can disrupt all except the most beastly low-post threats. Considering there are exactly 2 low post beasts in this league right now that give’s us a reasonable shot at taking our opponents out of their game.
I agree with Boppitywop and disagree with Dave's MMA analogy
Portland is not the knockout guy, he’s the crafty veteran tht rolls with the punches andhten slaps on a submission as the final buzzer nears. Because this is precisely what we’ve done with our defense especially inside with Camby and Thomas. Offensively we take what we’re given and On D we make the opponenet work.
Last night was a clear example. If you told me that Kobe would score 30 in 13-24 shooting, Bynum 21 on 9-16 and Gasol 19, I would think that we probably lost or had a very close game not an 11-pt not really contested in the final minutes victory. LA made their runs all 4th quarter but they could never make up any ground of significance. Our taking care of the ball and solid D ensure that our on again off again offense was more than enough.
by NWfan on Jan 6, 2012 11:06 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
^
This
I had EXACTLY the same thought about Kobe, Bynum’s and Gasol’s stat lines last night. If I saw those numbers from those three I would instantly assume a victory for the Lakers; however, this was obviously not the case.
This PTB team is legit. They hang their hat on defense and that will win many, many more games than not.
~OV
by OmoriumVerum on Jan 6, 2012 12:10 PM PST up reply actions
One thing
I am officially tired of the phrase “something fierce” I read it twice in the last two days one from the L*kers recap and now here. I used to love this phrase but now it seems like a bad fart joke, everybody is using it. Anyways good piece I agree on most points but I feel some arguments could be made for every other successful team right now. Time will tell .
by guybudpal on Jan 6, 2012 10:34 AM PST via Android app reply actions
Something fluffy?
"My shoulder is OK. And away we go." -- Nic Batum
"wang-dang diddly wubba SPROING wow-wow" -- Dave
i know how you feel.
the phrase “time will tell” rankles me something fierce.
dinasour type of guys choir boys
by mittsabishy on Jan 6, 2012 3:37 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Dave, you know I have nothing but the highest amount of respect for you,
but saying the okies are a more talented team then ours?
Im not sure where you are getting that from?
sure Durant is AS talented as Aldridge, but after that it is not even close, I mean their number one offensive option in the post is Perkins
I wont argue about the Lakers top three players.
But I humbly beg you to reconsider that horrid statement
La Illaha Illallah Muhamadur Rasulallah
I sure hope that this is just you being angry about TNT last night
because you are usually spot on with your appraisals
but this time?
wow
that is some pessimistic stuff to read
okies more talented?
that was a swift kick to the groin of every loyal blazermaniac
La Illaha Illallah Muhamadur Rasulallah
yep. bit pessimistic
the post was a bit pessimistic, but Dave did provide ‘things that would make him more optimistic:’ more consistent outside shooting, more defense and offense in the post, via trades.
so overall, Dave is probably correct. I think what he misses is the overall reduction in quality in the league. SA, LAL, MEM, DAL, don’t appear as strong as in year’s past. Also, as good as the Blazers are playing, they will improve! (along with most other teams)
by rburg on Jan 6, 2012 12:03 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
yeah, agreed
we are looking at the Blazers in a vacuum and picking them apart. That’s Dave’s job. But realative to the rest of the West? What team doesn’t have glaring vulnerabilities? Certainly every team we’ve played so far and I think you can add SA/Dallas to that list as well
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
How, exactly do we get MORE defense out of this team?
They are playing, pardon my spanish, huevos out.
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
Camby could be replaced with someone more mobile that we wouldn't be afraid to play 30+ mins a night
We’re top 10 now. Having a big who can trap and switch would make us top 3-5.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
Cut and paste that statement for any team other than Orlando
Legit bigs are the most valuable commodity in the NBA, and they are in a sellers market. I don’t see a single guy fitting that category that is “gettable”
Other than Oden, of course
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
Any team other than Orlando, Atlanta, LAL, and Milwaukee
And yeah, you’re right. But that statement is especially true for us, moreso than your average contender.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
the defense would be miles better if felton didn't treat screens as something he was forced to run into, and instead ran around them.
or better yet, slipped through.
dinasour type of guys choir boys
I think upping the pace is helping us a lot
but that’s probably more due to the lockout than anything, the lack of practice has just made teams rusty about getting back on defense and are making mental errors, like us with the breaks off made baskets in the third last night as Dave pointed out.
Look at the rest of the league, though. Currently the fastest teams in the league are, in order: Denver, Miami, Charlotte, us, and Minnesota and are sporting a combined .696 winning percentage. Compare that to last year or the year before when the five fastest teams had a .446 and .458 winning percentage, respectively. I’d expect this advantage to get less meaningful as teams adjust to being back in the grind.
We have been great defensively, although it does seem teams have been missing a fair number of wide open shots against us (Denver, in particular, stands out for me), so I’d expect a little natural regression there. It does seem like we’ve gotten a pretty long leash from the refs on the defensive end as well, especially GW, so I could see us having a couple rough nights where the refs call things tightly, but that’s more of just an impression that could be way off, I haven’t seen any stats or anything there.
My one quibble would be that, absent injury, I think our projections should absolutely be revised up a little bit. Due to the factors Dave mentions, I agree we’re much more suited to the regular season than playoffs right now, but even so, I think should be considered 50/50 to advance in the first round at minimum, probably better than that. Still so, so early, though.
I think the immediate (fan) focus should be on terms like "camaraderie" and "fun."
After the bitterness of the lockout and the drag of injuries, the Blazers have somehow emerged from their trials with an unmarred joy at playing basketball together. The fun they are having is contagious beyond the horizon of the playoffs or their immediate strategic weaknesses. Maybe the holes in their game are sophomoric, but so is the glint in their eye. They are playing with a youthful joy and it’s liberating. The city of Portland should just experience this play while it lasts—and not prematurely bury it underneath the weight of prognostications mistaken for realism. What’s real is that this team is awesome right now.
by nerfthunder on Jan 6, 2012 10:51 AM PST reply actions 26 recs
this
Roll with it! There will be plenty of time to come back down to earth later if that’s what it comes to.
Also...I think that along with ALL OF THE GOOD TEAMS IN THE LEAGUE
figuring out the Blazers…the BLAZERS may also continue to improve.
They are not going to remain as they are and not alsocdf exploit other team’s weaknesses.
ALL TEAMS will be subject to injuries…though the Blazers have seemed to excel at this in the past.
MCMILLAN is not going to get worse as the season goes on…I think that coaching has not even been addressed in this post. If what I have seen so far this year is an example of how Nate will coach this year…I am very encouraged.
The coaching STAFF…not just McMillan may have something to say about how well the Blazers do this year.
And just one final point.
Their inside scoring is predicated on getting LaMarcus Aldridge the ball on the alley-oop or on his willingness to bang inside and his ability to finish when he does so, both of which are in question
I completely disagree with this . Again. LMA had NO TRAINING CAMP. Played ONE pre-season game.
How did he look LAST YEAR during pre-season? Because SO FAR THIS YEAR…that is the number of games Aldridge has played. Only last year, how long was the training camp?
I’d say there is a good possibility LMA will bang in the post just fine this year.
And if he gets tired of doing so…Craig Smith and Kurt Thomas don’t seem all that afraid of banging people around under the basket. They set screens…it may make a difference for any player who wants to attack the basket.
This is my thought also...
the BLAZERS may also continue to improve.
I respect and understand Dave’s insight but it seems to leave out that we are also still getting our legs under us and will improve.
The chemistry and camaraderie is awesome but the skills and sharpness will grow.
Let’s just enjoy this really fun and exciting stretch of Blazer Basketball!
#7... GO BLAZERS!!!
I agree for a slightly different reason
though maybe it’s what you’re saying in a different way.
You know the saying applied to many things, that it’s the journey, not the destination, where the magic happens? I think it applies here.
Instead of judging this team on whether or not they get out of the first round of the playoffs, perhaps we should judge them on how fun it is to watch all the regular season games. While having BRoy and his deadly but boring iso game might have been a better weapon come playoff time, the helter-skelter, dive-on-the-floor, whole-team hustle is way more exciting.
Sure, it can be ugly when the shots aren’t falling, but no more ugly than watching 4 guys stand around waiting for the messiah.
by superfly05 on Jan 6, 2012 12:13 PM PST up reply actions 3 recs
I'm with ya completely.
And this coming from a fan who can’t actually watch or hear any of the games. :( I figure every fan has the choice of how they want to play their fandom cards. But just enjoying the games is the most fulfilling for me.
Exactly how I'm feeling right now. Amen!
We have plenty of time to over-analyze our situation, for now let’s just soak this in.
by blazerbeliever on Jan 6, 2012 1:26 PM PST up reply actions
I'm with it
tired of it getting broken apart into thousands of tiny pieces to find out what’s wrong with it and more excited to watch it happen…And it looks good!
I agree...
….I agree BUT there is nothing wrong with prognostications, Infact if you are charged with writing for Blazersedge? It’s pratically a necessity. But I agree, it’s kind of about timing. And right now? I’m just enjoying the season, the success, and the immediate reality that it seems much more is right and working with The Blazers than wrong and not working.
Seems to me that with most of the national media, The Blazers flew under the radar. Now we as fans are flying high. Well under the radar or above the clouds both realities are probably not the entire picture. If I was Dave, I would of saved this evaluation for after a loss or two, and presented it as remembering what is right about the team after a loss, as opposed to timing it right now after what is always a BIG win in beating The Lakers.
It might be shallow of me, but right now? I’d just assume the best, and enjoy the fun to a better than many expected start for The Blazers.
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
by Krang on Jan 6, 2012 1:47 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Catch-22
If I wait until the Blazers experience a few losses and these things become clearer to folks then people say, “You’re just reacting to a couple of games” or “You’re just piling on now”. It’s a no-win thing when it comes to timing and how people will react.
—Dave
truth
but I would also hope we all understand that we’re not going to go .800+ this season. Blazers fans are no strangers to losing. Beating both OKC and the Lakers recently is complicating the timing a bit.
Maybe True Dave...
…infact I concede to your experience that it is absolutely true. BUT right now? The presentation comes off as you being the designated driver at the party who is warning everyone about work on monday at the monster hangover they are likely to have….
Come on Dave…get unrealistic with us!
"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"
bottom line (but not the last)
It’s obvious many Blazer fans up in here want to have some lively discussion about our team and Dave has launched a great thread! It’s a large part of why we come here. It’s a massive part of why BEdge is such a great blog. Hat’s off to Dave (but not all of the points of his original post! grrrr)
by i-goes-2-da-rack on Jan 6, 2012 2:17 PM PST up reply actions
Dave how can you make this assesment after missing 1/12th of the season so far?
I am quite content with Blazer play so far. Their D is the something that seems to bind this team together. That is not a bad thing. How that will play out in the playoffs—we’ll see when we get their. Personally I think this squad is more solid than last year’s. More GW and Thomas and Smith are very nice bench assets whihc we laked last year. Furthermore though Roy at his best (even injured) is better than Crawfordm, Crawford from night to night > a hobbled Roy; so offensivly we are better in the backcourt for playmaking. Our biggest weakness is our halfcourt offense. But I look at the west and ask but which teams are going to make us pay by taking extreme care of the ball and being efficient half-court scorers: San Antonio, maybe the thunder, Denver or the Lakers.
The Thunder and Nuggets are the teams that give me most pause. We have great defenders to stymy great guards or SFs. Pgs are where we are going to get hurt most. And between Camby and Thomas we are more capable of Felton getting burned occasionally (much more than with Miller). Besides Miller makes oppsong PGs play defesne which takes something away on the other end of the cour; Miller didn’t do that so much.
I like where we are and where we are headed. If ever Oden recovers and we resign him and gets some experience we will be fearsome (I don’t expect anything beyond spot minutes at most if he even play this season). Our weakness is you don’t know who’s going to produce on a given night but that is also a key strength. Opposing teams can just gameplan for Lma and Wallace or Crawford beacuse Mathews, Felton and Batum make easily make you wince for sleeping on them.
by NWfan on Jan 6, 2012 10:54 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
This line gets 1/12 of a rec!
Dave how can you make this assesment after missing 1/12th of the season so far?
"What began as a credible protest against bank bailouts, crony capitalism and the like has, in large measure, been hijacked by crazies and criminals,"
Great article Dave!
It’s time for us to cool down our head a little bit. Really hate to see people (especially on ESPN) suddenly become high on us while they believe us not making the playoffs 10 days ago. So far what I see in our game is excellent teamwork, energy, hustle and uptempo pace. These are very reasons we should be excited about this new Blazers.
However, I also saw lazy and sometimes terrible pick and roll/pop defense which gives up WILD open mid-range jumpers. Luckily, the opponents seldom take advantage of that. The interior defense against lengthy/bulky player is OK but not great as we were destroyed by Bynum last night in the first half.
As for each player, Raymond Felton, who was considered as an upgrade for Dre in terms of 3pt shooting shot less than 20% in his game while Dre shot a 36.4%. I know that Felton definitely has better shooting “ability” but I hope he can shoot better soon. Nicholas has been inconsistent in offense and great in defense as always. Wes seems to find his shot recently and he should keep up that streak. LA is getting more alley oops and dunks in the last two games which is a good sign as he need easy bucket to build up the confidence. Camby who average 8.7 reb and 3.3 ass in 24mpg is a big surprise to me. Jamal is being Jamal. Kurt and Craig are great pickup, definitely the top5 free agent signing!
Overall, I’m very excited about this team but it’s too early to feel like we are real contender. Let’s keep playing the underdog role and surprise everyone when we reach the final!
by Yang Vincent Xu on Jan 6, 2012 10:54 AM PST reply actions
This team is one healthy Greg Oden away from the Finals
Until then, we got a swarm of bigs to throw at people. And we will be “better” teams with our pace.
We are playing good defense, and whatever else is happening, if you play with energy on both ends of the floor, good things happen. And when opponents can get up a shot, they shoot an ~ league average percentage against us. But defense includes forcing turnovers, and we have been great at that.
Finally, we are playing as a team. Team basketball FTW! This rotation is excellent and the role players we have are well considered.
I see real promise for this team.
Now all we need is the rest of the roster to get into "how can everybody help Nicco and Oden" mode. -- Oden Mad, Oden Smash! Sep 29, 2010 7:47 PM
by LaoTzu on Jan 6, 2012 11:02 AM PST reply actions 3 recs
Maybe if Oden makes it back
soon enough to get some experience with the team we can do something in the playoffs. Otherwise without Oden we are going to have to wait for Joel Freedman coming over hopefully next season & keeping our team intact.
"Unless commitment is made, there are only promises and hopes, but no plans."
The Blazers opponents this season are 23-17; and 22-12 against teams not from Portland
Our schedule has been anything but weak. We have only played Philly from the East (their record is 3-2 [3-1 except for Portland]), but we have played every contender in the west except for the Spurs.
And as Crash said, watch out when this team gets in NBA shape and can really to run!
Now all we need is the rest of the roster to get into "how can everybody help Nicco and Oden" mode. -- Oden Mad, Oden Smash! Sep 29, 2010 7:47 PM
It's tough to gauge
We’ve certainly played solid teams, but we’ve probably had the weakest schedule in terms of other factors. Four home games to two road games and only a single back to back, and it was the easiest possible kind (home-home with the second game against a bad team). Heck, Philly’s home opener is tonight.
I’d say concentration and fatigue will be much bigger factors than normal this season, and we’ve essentially gotten to play a schedule so far that would be normal for a standard NBA season. Our opponents will be worse, but the other factors will start to actually impact us.
Every conterdor except Spurs
Well I wouldn’t count Dallas out yet. I think a good test is when we finally play the warriors. If we don’t stink it up aginst them, then maybe we have turned a corner.
Very nice piece
On the one hand Camby and KT have played very well. On the other, that tandem is not going to scare anyone and they are both very old so can their production make it all the way through the season and playoffs? LA does not have his legs yet and has played more like LA 1.25 than the 2.0 we saw for part of last year. When he gets his conditioning, I hope he gets back to the block for the strong moves I saw him begin to make last year. But I am encouraged by the play of the team and I think we will get better IF Felton continues to manage the game like he did last night, LA 2.0 shows up and our old centers stay healthy.
As long as the current roster stays healthy all season (or when it counts)
we’ll hit the second round of the playoffs. When we do that, this season is a success.
A displaced Sonics fan that has somehow emerged as a Blazers fan (and loves it).
by anitachampionship on Jan 6, 2012 11:33 AM PST reply actions
PTB will evolve s well...
Dave is undoubtedly a shrewd analyst of NBA basketball, but I can’t get past the irritating overtone throughout this piece that the other teams in the league will evolve and learn to beat us….but somehow the Blazers will remain static. I know I’m not necessarily the majority but I have faith that Nate is a good coach and our vets are savvy players and as the other teams in the league improve we will also. The key for me is the “team play”. I know that in the NBA megastars tend to win out in the end, but I think we’ll go far in the playoffs because we play the game the right way and are already showing an inclination to find what works and exploit it rather than rely on only one trick over and over. Why do you think this won’t continue as the season goes on?
by i-goes-2-da-rack on Jan 6, 2012 11:35 AM PST reply actions 14 recs
We are taking the first seed and homecourt
I said it a month ago and Im saying it now
you are very sane
La Illaha Illallah Muhamadur Rasulallah
That's what I'm talkin' bout!
rational acceptance is cool and all….but then there’s BELIEF!
by i-goes-2-da-rack on Jan 6, 2012 11:39 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I think the history of Blazer basketball causes people to be overly pessimistic sometimes as a defense mechanism
I mean a week ago we had people on here saying with a straight face that the clippers were better than us
what a joke
the closet okiezombie fans will be a little harder to purge
we need to exile them to loudcity
La Illaha Illallah Muhamadur Rasulallah
the Clippers are 1-0 against us
let’s maybe beat them before we start beating our chest in their faces…and it’s still a terrible idea to write off OKC
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
they will always be the clippers
how many times have they made the playoffs in your lifetime
it is okay to do it to them, we get a clipper exception
La Illaha Illallah Muhamadur Rasulallah
writing them off because they are the Clippers
is a really irresponsible thing to do. They made it a handful of years ago around a Brand-Maggette-Cassell core and almost went to the WCF. The name on the jersey means little to me, the combination of Paul-Griffin-Jordan-Billups-Butler means far more. That’s my concern and it should be everyone’s concern. I’m not saying they are better than us but come on, writing them off because of their franchise history? Detroit Lions are in the playoffs this year amigo. History doesn’t change your record, only the team on the floor..
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
Of course, it would only be truly irresponsible IF
what we think mattered one bit :-)
We can say/think anything we want and it doesn’t affect who wins.
Apparently not giving up on Brandon or Greg paid no dividends. Whatever... Go Blazers!!!
haha
DON’T TELL ME IT DOESN’T MATTER! That delusion is all I have…
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
It's hard to evolve into something you're not.
How do you “evolve” a low-post game when you don’t have any low post players, for instance? Marcus Camby can play a million games (already has, in fact) and that will never make him a low block scorer.
—Dave
We have guys posting up mismatches every game
How many solid low block scorers are going to kill us in this league? Anything over LMA’s talent/size combination you can count on one hand.
by poorwebguy on Jan 6, 2012 11:55 AM PST up reply actions 3 recs
Wallace on Durant seemed like a pretty solid adjustment to me
Aldridge with a hesitation attack to the middle against Pau late in the 4th was nice too. We can work inside out, it doesn’t take 3+ guys who are good post scorers to do that. Enter it in, hurt em with LMA/Gerald, take advantage of matchups, force the D to collapse, hurt em from the outside and with cutters when they do. LMA needs to have an aggressive mindset and not settle, he does that and I’m not worried about it at all. A lot of good teams don’t even have that, including OKC.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
Short answer: I don't think LMA today is the best LMA we'll see this season
I accept that I may have more faith in his game than you do. My idea of our evolution has more to do with adjusting to our opponents throughout the season and our available personnel than in changing a single position or reversing a single weakness. I"m not saying forsake our game plan and bend to theirs – I’m saying I think we’ll do exactly what you are suggesting the “elite” teams will do – figure out how to play better than our opponents with regularity.
by i-goes-2-da-rack on Jan 6, 2012 12:08 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
If we could pick up a center to at the very least grab some boards, play good D & Dunk
Hibbert & McGee are a reach, but Gortat, Okefor, Dalembert, Biedrins, Chuck Hayes, Spencer Hawes(Most improved player?), then we have a serious shot at winning the west, in my opinion. Because I believe in Aldridge.
Paul Allen, the 2011 Trail Blazers Owner/GM
aside from the Lakers, what WC teams have better consistent low post options than Aldridge/Wallace?
Nuggets I suppose? Certainly not the Thunder. Can’t think of many others. Dallas I guess with Dirk.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
by sammymohawk on Jan 6, 2012 12:27 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Not even sure about the Nuggets
as far as actually scoring in the post in half court. Lakers definitely. I really can’t think of another team though.
I was using Dre/Nene, but I certainly don't think that's superior to Wallace/Aldridge
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
No other team can compare with the Lakers
Bynum and Gasol are both great low post scorers, with size and are decent mid range shooters. Gasol is also a good passer.
yeah healthy Bynum gives them a monstrous front court
I’m actually glad the traded off Odom. That would have been a freakish front court.
that's what they lost to me
a relentless and ridiculous size advantage. Losing Odom is not addition by subtraction for them. They no longer scare me (pending further moves they make)
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
Bynum still scares me
He doesn’t have the D to push a team through the Finals, but he can win them games by himself.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
his development certainly changes things
but if they can get Dwight they should do it in a split second. Sell high on Bynum if Orlando has any interest
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
haha, Otis is going to screw that situation up sooooooo bad
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
Forgot about Memphis
with ZBo healthy they are right in that mix with he and Gasol
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
yeah I totally spaced them too
must have been Randolph’s recent injury. Gasol is pretty decent even still.
Memphis is good in the post
granted Zbo is down for a whilebut I’d expect him back comes playoffs.
This, exactly
Are we comparing ourselves to historically awesome low post attacks, or our opponents. I don’t see any West teams other the lakers with all this brutal low post attack.
not at all
his post development was a major factor in their championship run
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
It doesn't happen often
But I think you’re way off the mark. I’m not looking for everything through rose garden colored glasses, but IMHO your analysis of the Blazers thus far is way, way off.
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
Portland will adjust just like other teams will
It makes no sense to assume other teams are going to learn how to beat us while Mcmillan just sits on his hands. This Blazer team is absurdly versatile, and has proved to us that they are able to adjust. If you need proof, consult Bynum not missing a shot in the first half last night, then doing almost nothing in the second.
by Respect 58 on Jan 6, 2012 6:21 PM PST via Android app up reply actions
The way things are trending, the megastar days are on the decline.
The rise of Twitter has finally killed the magic of celebrity (which is a big part of the megastar syndrome). Having a team full of good, savvy tweeners who work egolessly together seems to be a stronger overall mix than one or two ego filled ball hogs (with amazing skills) and ten guys trying desperately to be the man long enough to earn playing time.
#fail
"I was a victim of a series of accidents, as are we all."
by thankyouforblaze on Jan 6, 2012 1:45 PM PST up reply actions
Except that both Wallace and Aldridge have taken it inside repeatedly. So you're wrong there.
Also, Camby as well as Smith in brief flashes, have shown to be excellent individual rebounders, so you’re wrong there as well.
"Brandon Roy has done this before."
by sabonis11 on Jan 6, 2012 11:42 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Aldidge is one of the top 3 offensive low post options in the whole league
Im not sure where he got that from
or that the okies had more talent
La Illaha Illallah Muhamadur Rasulallah
I don't think you are giving enough credit to the Blazers for making it difficult on teams to execute what you refer to as "Middle School Basketball 101"
good luck getting Pau and Bynum back on D before Felton-Wallace-Aldridge-Batum-Matthews have already run out. Good luck taking care of the ball like it’s just something you can choose to do against good pressure D and lanky, athletic defenders.
You make it sound like adjustments will happen and will work without question like it’s a foregone conclusion and that we will have no recourse. I guess that’s a possibility, but it’s far from a given. We will adjust to the adjustments. We certainly have the talent and versatility to do so. The utilization of Gerald Wallace in the post for example has been a very positive development to me.
In the end I mostly agree that this is great in the short term but means little in the long term until we’re using home court advantage to advance in the playoffs. That being said, I believe we are a better team than the Lakers (regular season at least, confident we could take them in the playoffs if necessary but not my preferred matchup). OKC, to me, is still the best team in the WC. Hard to say much about Dallas/San Antonio since we haven’t seen either yet, but both look shaky. The Clips are interesting. I really believe we can finish top 3 in the Conference.
I look forward to this team continuing to win you over, Dave. Your analysis is fine and certainly objective, but you were certainly down on this team coming into the season and what many had predicted, that we would be improved from last year (I always thought this was pretty much a given just by comparing rosters), has come to fruition. The pieces have fallen nicely into place, we have a go-to perimeter guy and a go-to interior guy (still developing this aspect of his game), we’re long, deep, athletic, and playing a style that fits us like a glove. We stay healthy and it could be a special season, but one game at a time. Take care of business against an inferior team tonight, because that’s what they are, and let’s keep this train moving.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
by sammymohawk on Jan 6, 2012 11:46 AM PST reply actions 8 recs
this - rec!
good luck getting Pau and Bynum back on D before Felton-Wallace-Aldridge-Batum-Matthews have already run out. Good luck taking care of the ball like it’s just something you can choose to do against good pressure D and lanky, athletic defenders.
and it’s not like these things didn’t give elite teams trouble all last year too. So far we look like last season’s team post Wallace trade and with more depth.
We showed decent half-court execution last night.
The purpose of running isn’t just fast break points. Pulling the ball out and getting into a half-court set while the defense is still in mismatches and time is left on the shot clock is a huge advantage. PHX Suns running nets fast break points, the way the SAS ran a few years back net the kind of advantage I’m talking about, and it works in the playoffs.
"Brandon Roy has done this before."
We did fine in the playoffs last season against a superior team
and the depth will help this year along with having more consistent perimeter threats to open things up. Our front court did plenty of damage with the defense completely packed in because no-one could make a 3.
I’m seeing more consistency so far this season. With Roy at about 50% we had no-one on the perimeter that could actually create their own shot.
I think Crawford can be a game changer in the loss of BRoy
Not as good, but he has the potential. We are liking in interior defense, but don’t forget we are just as new as the other teams that we are talking about. We will get better as they will get better.
Thomas pushing Bynum out of the box last night was very encouraging, Camby can rebound with the best of them and we have Smith that will get better as the season goes on. So yes we have our good and bad but we have not yet reached our potential either.
Bottom line is you have to play to your strength and the opponents weakness, and we have done that. So until the time changes it is up to the opponents to adjust not us.
hg
Crawford, while not the player Roy was, fills that perimeter go-to guy role very nicely
and it’s a tough role to lack…so as far as the Crawford signing goes, so far so good
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
Dave Both Wallace and Aldridge are legit post threats...
…maybe not against anyone, any game… maybe, but certainly against most teams on most nights. Sure, If we had a legit post presence at the 5 we would be almost unbeatable, but we will have to wait on Oden on that front…
Can this team impose their will on other teams like the Roy led teams? Not from one position like Roy. I would argue they can do just as well from multiple positions on the floor. No one can key on a single player on this team and shut us down anymore.
by Odenrising on Jan 6, 2012 11:53 AM PST reply actions 3 recs
I agree
without a bankable low-post player
Don’t remember Aldridge last year, Dave? I’m assuming he will less bump & grind this year, with far more front line depth(KT, CJ, Rhino, +a mid season addition). He won’t be focusing all of his low post banging for the regular season, rather allowing him to save his dominant post game for the playoffs. They ain’t ready :)
Paul Allen, the 2011 Trail Blazers Owner/GM
by 420Phenom on Jan 6, 2012 12:15 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
whats up Abu
Paul Allen, the 2011 Trail Blazers Owner/GM
by 420Phenom on Jan 6, 2012 3:09 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I hope the Blazers use this post as bulletin board material...
The Mavericks won the title last year and I think we have equal if not better defenders at every position with the exception of Felton. Felton-Wes-Wallace-LMA-Camby vs Kidd-Stevenson-Marion-Dirk-Chandler. The difference maker for them was Chandler, the difference maker for us is Wallace. I also think Dave is underestimating Kurt Thomas and C. Smith off the bench as defenders and rebounders.
As for offense, the comparisons can continue with the Mavs: they were opportunistic fast breakers as are we. It’s not like we are leading the league in fast break points and neither did the Mavs. Our half court offense has always been dependent on our shooters much like the Mavs. They certainly didn’t have an inside presence in the post. I’d give the advantage to us in the LMA and Wallace are equal if not better inside players than Dirk and Chandler. As Dave says, if our guards and small forwards can get their shooting up, everything will open up more for the inside game of LMA. Regardling the bench, it may be slightly better as well. While we have no Barea, we have a Batum. Crawford equals Terry and I think Thomas is always going to give you something.
#7
by clinchmobb on Jan 6, 2012 11:54 AM PST reply actions 2 recs
could be argued for any and every team in the league
it’s non-analysis
by i-goes-2-da-rack on Jan 6, 2012 11:59 AM PST up reply actions
of course it can
but I think we are particularly vulnerable in that we couldn’t make do at the pg position. Center, maybe. Thomas did start something like 37 games last year at center for the Bulls and CJ can play filler minutes and LMA obviously can slide over there. I just don’t see JC being our starting PG and having no legit back up or even filler…
#7
Legit analysis
We will live and die by the three (when the hustle is ground down, like in a playoff game) but at least we have a much better chance at living by that three this year. Seem like teams that go deep in the playoffs usually knock down a lot of shots from the distance. Without that threat every team will struggle. I like our setup this year.
The tensions are so high because the stakes are so low!
Now Dave, you've upset the kids again...........
They want sunshine ,roses, and candy all the time.
We must endeavor to persevere.
I think if you read the posts you will find that's generally not the case
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
by sammymohawk on Jan 6, 2012 12:10 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
actually quite fond of cupcakes myself
by poorwebguy on Jan 6, 2012 12:10 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Some unbiased analysis, please
say whatever you want about Kerr and Chuck, they knows their hoops. Chuck’s early pick of dallas last year (and his standing by that pick throughout the season) speaks volumes, as does his criticism of the blazers in years past. The guy can pick out the strengths and weaknesses of a team like no other, and he said BEFORE the laker game that the blazers are built to win. Kerr said before the season he was unconvinced, but compared the blazers’ ability and chemistry to the ‘11 mavs last night. When it comes to the blazers, they’re completely unbiased. Dave, I appreciate your persistent cynicism and your efforts to keep everybody’s heads on straight, but the fact of the matter is, you’re taking an excessively critical view of the team that is biased by the disappointments we’ve suffered over the last few years. The fact is, while many of the personnel are the same, this team is COMPLETELY DIFFERENT from the 09, 10, 11 squads, and every other blazer team. Last night the lakers came out of the gates shooting the lights out— they played well, not poorly— and the blazers made the adjustments necessary not just to beat them, but dominate. YEs, other teams will be getting better over the course of the season, but our players are still getting to know one another, and still starting to groove. Felton and aldridge aren’t even in shape yet! I’m not being optimistic, i’m being realistic: this team is the best in the west. The spurs just lost ginobli; denver is solid but they’re weakesses are fare more glaring than ours; lake show is going nowhere this season, unless they make a trade; and okc is just plain overrated, with less talent than they’re given credit for and some glaring post weaknesses. As far as the blazers weaknesses you identify: they actually have four guys who can drive to the hoop and slice the defense, and this was on display last night. they have a go-to shooter at the end of games: let’s be honest, as great as brandon was, crawford has just as good a record making game winning shots and 4th quarter field goals. Sometimes he may go cold, yes, but brandon also went cold ALOT. You’re not giving KT or Smith proper credit: they are legit big men (as shown yesterday). Camby is an absolute beast, and felton is getting better every game (he sliced and diced the lakeshow last night; notwithstanding his poor shooting stats, i thought it was his best game)
by Sonic Phantom on Jan 6, 2012 12:03 PM PST reply actions 9 recs
Just a note
and then I’ll leave this alone.
Every time Kerr and Barkley say something bad about the Blazers up rises a chorus of people calling them totally-biased know-nothings.
—Dave
by Dave on Jan 6, 2012 12:18 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Fully agree...
Positive or negative, I don’t put stock in anything Barkley says. He is a clown to me. I am more compelled by a fortune cookie delcaring “something exciting will happen to you” than I am by comments made by the Round Mound of Taco Bell.
by i-goes-2-da-rack on Jan 6, 2012 12:22 PM PST up reply actions
And you have to realize
that media types looking for a sexy pick to make them look smart are going to jump on the Blazers right now. They play an old version of the “mobster racetrack” game wherein the gangster sells the number of the “winning horse” to 8 different people. The trick is, he sells a different horse to each one. 7 of those predictions are going to be wrong but 1 will always come true. He pockets the guaranteed money from that one. Many national sportscasters employ their version by talking up teams who do well. Late in the season they only bring up the predictions that actually turned out correct. The other 7 never come up.
I’m not saying Chuck and Steve are lying. They obviously think there’s a chance the Blazers will do well or they would have said different. But basing your evaluations on national TV guys’ proclamations is a risky endeavor. I completely value the opinion of about 1.5 national guys when it comes to the Blazers and none of them work in TV.
—Dave
Not too mention all the caveats that they always use
Barkley will say something like he loves the way the Blazers are playing right now, and that they could absolutely make some noise in the playoffs or contend in the West. Of course all that’s sincere, but it’s not like the Blazers are the only team he loves and a whole lot can change between “right now” and playoff time, and no one ever really defines what would constitute contending or making noise. Making the second round and being a tough out would probably count, and that’s a long ways from being the clear favorites like many here are saying.
But really, I’d be okay with people giving what Charles said some weight if they’re also going to agree with his point that Kevin Love is playing “heads and tails” better than every other PF in the league right now.
Predictions are ephemeral.
Day to day the picture of what could be changes and must constantly be re-evaluated. That doesn’t mean predictions aren’t valuable. They’re a great touchstone for “what if” and help evaluate where the team is now and how things shake out if momentum continues, ebbs or increases in any direction. But other than that, they are just talk.
others perhaps: i never thought chuck was biased, and never called him biased
in fact, i thought his criticisms of the blazers were completely spot on: i started to respect him more after a game the blazers won in convincing fashion (maybe denver on christmas 09?) when he said the team won’t win in playoffs because of lack of inside scoring. Now we have inside scoring. Would be great to have a second A+ post player (which LMA is), but bottom line is we have players who can get inside and score inside. double check points in the paint last night against a team with arguably the biggest post presence of any (two extremely skilled 7 footers), and then come back and tell me with a straight face that the blazers cant score inside
by Sonic Phantom on Jan 6, 2012 12:27 PM PST up reply actions
You have to look at HOW those points are coming
as I said in the original post. Aldridge did not get those alley-oops in the playoffs last year. The Blazers got dominated inside by Tyson Chandler. Neither of those were accidents. Not much has changed about that frontcourt nor their method of scoring nor their interior defense nor their rebounded dependencies. They’ll excel in many games but teams are going to exploit that weakness, doubly in the playoffs.
—Dave
Aldridge only caught two lobs last night.
So, we still would have won.
"Brandon Roy has done this before."
it's a great discussion to have, and i'm glad we're having it
it’s never been clear to me why points in the paint have to come a certain way. everybody says you have to score with a big man in the block, but why? what matters is gettting high %, easy makes, any way they come. in any case, we have a big man who can score in the block, and whose scoring prowess is still improving this season (remember aldridge’s post scoring in April/May of last year?) Yes, i know he’s not a true center, and i know it would be great to have a 7 foot scorer to complement him, but we aren’t a second tier team just because we don’t. Points scored near the basket with high consistency are what matters: maybe it comes through post, fast break, athletic guard play in halfcourt, whatever— you just want layups. and we’re getting those. gerald wallace gets ALOT of those. ray and wes and jamal and nick are capable of getting inside for layups and fouls. don’t underestimate our guys getting fouled either! big part of playing inside is converting fould shotsl, and we’ve been doing it well. And the most exciting thing about this team is they don’t rely on any single avenue to get paint points. they don’t JUST come through fastbreak, they come in alot of different ways. I do want to see LMA play inside more, and i’m confident he will (as he did progressively last season). but to say we’re not built to score points in the paint is just untrue
by Sonic Phantom on Jan 6, 2012 12:53 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Simple answer:
because you can stop that lob easier than you can stop a true deep post move. That does matter a ton. In order for LaMarcus to score in the paint his defender has to fall asleep. That’s not going to happen in the playoffs. That’s also not true of a true post player who can get his move off and draw fouls against defenders. LaMarcus has shown that he’s not comfortable making moves with his back to the basket and even when he gets one off he’s certainly not comfortable finishing in traffic under pressure in the paint. That is not his game. Nor does anyone else on the team provide that ability, neither in the post as a big man or off the drive as a wing or point. Every one of them is flawed in that way.
Therefore when the chips are down the Blazers are going to have a tough time scoring easy unless they can generate those turnovers, play excellent defense, dominate the boards, and run out. Turnovers also depend on the opponent making mistakes, as it’s exponentially easier to keep the ball than it is to take it away. That’s why turnover-dependent teams don’t prosper in the post-season. The Blazers can rebound as a team and maybe that will be a bright spot. We need to see if they can keep it up all year. The defense has been nice in terms of covering for each other. Some of the guards are an issue. The Blazers allow too many open looks. Still, I like this aspect better than the others as it’s one thing that comes naturally to guys like Batum, Wallace, Matthews, and Camby.
The Blazers will certainly be able to play a good game no matter who the opponent is. They probably won’t be able to play a COMPLETE game with all the facets necessary for them to prosper at their highest level against smart, motivated, prepared, talented opponents. That is going to spell trouble. Everybody saying it doesn’t really matter…or the Blazers do some things really well (which they do)…or they have a lot of heart (which they do)….or attributing to players strengths they don’t have…or just trying to fill in holes with players that don’t really fill them won’t change that.
—Dave
—Dave
by Dave on Jan 6, 2012 1:40 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
wow, harsh critique of LMA's still developing game. I thought he handled Pau and the flashing double teams really well last night and did score in the paint
In order for LaMarcus to score in the paint his defender has to fall asleep. That’s not going to happen in the playoffs. That’s also not true of a true post player who can get his move off and draw fouls against defenders. LaMarcus has shown that he’s not comfortable making moves with his back to the basket and even when he gets one off he’s certainly not comfortable finishing in traffic under pressure in the paint. That is not his game.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
yeah ouch
From what I’ve seen, when LMA actually gets good post position he’s going to score. There are 4 or 5 guys he can’t back down but who cares?
Howard and Bynum aren’t a threat beyond like 10 feet and Bynum can’t run the floor for 40 minutes.
LMA will continually put up more pts than both of those guys and do it from all over the floor…including the post. Poor guy can’t buy credit.
It’s like in PDX you have to be the best in the world to get legit respect?
He's been shooting a lot more J's this year than last, mostly off pick and pops with Felly
But I’d say he’s done even better in the low post than he did last year. His moves are way less predictable. One-on-one, I don’t think there’s a PF, asleep or not, that can guard LMA in the post (besides maybe KG). There may be a few C’s that can cover him down low, but he’s yet to play one this year. Even Chuck Wagon couldn’t stop him.
He’s just too skilled and powerful. He’ll get tired, he’ll have off nights, he’ll settle for too many jumpers sometimes, but he’s probably the most versatile scorer at the 4. Including Dirk and Pau.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
I gotta disagree as well on that quote
I seem to remember doubles and triple teams on LMA on the last few playoff runs
"What began as a credible protest against bank bailouts, crony capitalism and the like has, in large measure, been hijacked by crazies and criminals,"
It's his sixth year in the league
and his preferred move by far is still that turnaround jumper 15-18 feet. Not saying he can’t improve, but he’s not going to suddenly morph into Tim Duncan.
He’s definitely shown some ability to play in the post, but it’s the difference between being someone like Bosh or KG offensively and Duncan/Shaq (Caveat, only comparing their relative post games). Sure, those first two guys could play in the post, and they have a good shot when a guy lets them get good position, but they aren’t good enough to a) take that position against a defender determined to keep them off it or b) score at good efficiently if they don’t start out with great position.
There’s nothing wrong with that, but after watching those guys struggle offensively in the playoffs for years, I don’t think Dave is off the reservation here.
I don't either
but where is Shaq/Duncan in this current NBA? Is it Bynum? Howard? Was Dirk that type of post player?
I think it’s a very harsh criticism of a player who has beaten very awake defenders in a multitude of fashions since last December.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
I think Dwight would be, and Bynum's getting close
Kobe shot him out of the game much more than anything we did, but Dave’s point below about having perimeter players that can get to the rim and finish with regularity is a good one. In the absence of a Shaq/Duncan, those types of guys can be a decent proxy, and but we don’t have that either, and those guys exist in abundance on other teams.
We wore Bynum out in the second half
That’s on us, and the players should be confident in that. However, they probably won’t be able to with the current personnel once he plays his way into shape.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
Maybe after we were up double digits
But Bynum came out in the 2nd and looked dominant, even his couple misses were good looks. After Kobe got called for the block on Wallace, though, he started to go into Kobe mode and the Lakers started seriously downhill. But really, it’s only his 3rd game of the season after the lockout. I’d expect there to be conditioning issues regardless of what we did, and he was still able to get a pretty nasty block on Felton (maybe Matthews) driving the lane in the 4th.
'Twas a great block
Still, I credit the team, but mostly Thomas, for his 2-9 shooting on the half.
But I must concede on your point on Kobe.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
I fail to understand why he has to give up part of his game
to be more like Shaq or Duncan or some other player. LMA looked dominate in the post at times last year. Drops 30 on two solid front courts. The guy doesn’t need to morph into someone else and I really hope he doesn’t.
LMA is a skilled big. He can back most guys down in the post. He can fade, baby hook, drive and dunk, spot up for a jumpshot, fade against a double team, spin lob, offensive rebounding and tip dunks.
If he continues to improve he’ll be more like a cross between Dirk and Tim than anything approaching a Shaq or Howard…and I’m completely fine with that. People will kill me for this but I hope he locks in his fade too. It can be a devastating weapon when a 7 footer can get his shot anywhere and anytime he wants.
by poorwebguy on Jan 6, 2012 2:14 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Because it's not an efficient shot?
Right now he needs that jumper as a threat to soften up defenders, letting him get better post position. That’s all well and good, but it’s much better when you can generate those high percentage looks without having to set them up with low percentage ones. I don’t dispute that he “can” do everything you’re saying, but he can’t do all that with regularity.
And let’s not use Dirk as a counter-example, who’s an absolute freak and aberration. He shot over 50% from 16-23 feet last year. That’s unreal. LA shot 41%, nowhere close to the same thing.
LMA was plenty efficient overall last year
Just because a shot isn’t as efficient doesn’t mean it can’t be a weapon every once in awhile. I don’t mind Aldridge with a couple fades to see if he has that shot dialed in as long as he continues to mix it up.
I’m obviously not implying that LMA should start chucking fadeaways. 40% isn’t bad for a bailout shot on a short clock though. LMA also used to lock on with that fade every once in awhile and tear teams up.
Every time a national guy has mentioned LMA's name this year...
it’s been in the context of ‘arguably the most dominant guy in the West at his position’ or ‘definitely an All-Star this year’ or ‘should have been an All-star last year’ or ‘one of the toughest guys in the league to defend’. As you know, that is someone that just wasn’t said in years past…!!!
#7
Dang, seriously
“Fall asleep.”
I simply don’t see all these awesome post players in the league right now, and those who do can’t do most o the other things LA can do.
I just don’t see his post game being so bad compared to his contemporaries. This is feeling kinda brutal.
yeah, I think the fall asleep part
is pretty disrespectful to the well-rounded post game that Aldridge has developed, and the more aggressive post player he’s turned into. Was quite surprised to read that about one of the game’s premier young posts
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
same here
you’d think I’d be used to it by now.
He's premier when shooting the jumper
or the turn-around jumper. He’s not premier when going to the hoop unless the defender falls asleep and allows the entry pass for the alley-oop.
—Dave
See, I still disagree with that
If his defender is a true 4, he can push the guy down. He did it to Gasol a several times last night.
He attempts 4-6 shots at the rim every game, and hits 60-ish percent of them. Maybe one or two are lobs. The math doesn’t work out.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
I've seen a lot of strong post moves from LMA
None are the drop-step we’d love to see, but his spin into the lane baby hook is very effective.
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
I would definitely disagree with that
agree to disagree, his post game has come a LONG way
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
He may not necessarily be premier
But there’s a lot of wiggle room between needing your defender to fall asleep and being premier. He can still be pretty good, and among his contemporaries I kind of think he is. I mean how many Hakeem’s and Shaq’s are there in the league right now? Why does LA’s post game specifically have to match historical premiers (or the couple of guys in the whole league right now that would even be close) for the blazers to be a top tier team in the West? Can’t a pretty good post up game (and ranked among his contemporaries) along with an outstanding face up game, exceptional running game and solid defense be a good enough contribution from LA along with the parts of our team that are strong make us relevent as a top tier western team?
by Dunemonkey on Jan 6, 2012 3:31 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
This is what I see too.
I see LMA having a lot of trouble finishing in traffic. Many of his attempts close to the bucket involve a miss, and a rebound, then another miss, then another rebound, then a foul sending LMA to the line. He’s not exactly emphatic going to the hoop. His moves tend to look a little robotic and predictable right now. I think the fundamentals are sound, but the practice and resulting confidence aren’t there. He’s an amazing jump-shooter and that will always be his go-to move.
The alley-oop is a fantastic play, but as you said, it requires the defense falling asleep. For proof, look no further than the Dallas series, where the oop vanished. Miller didn’t suddenly lose his ability to toss them, and Aldridge didn’t suddenly lose his ability to finish, the defense just set up shop between LMA and the basket. That simple.
All that said, LMA can still be dangerous in the paint because of his ability to get to the line. He’s got the body to set up shop in the paint, but his skill set doesn’t yet allow him to score easily. No problem: he just has to score the hard way. LMA living at the charity stripe will get other team’s bigs in foul trouble early, and open up the paint for the likes of Wallace, Felton and Batum.
Doers & Makers > Movers & Shakers
Dave is not-so-secretly supplying LMA with bulletin board material...
It is well documented that LMA has chip on his shoulder and has always looked for someone to give him an excuse to prove them wrong…it motivates him…
#7
agree completely.
there’s a world of difference in terms of scoring reliability between being able to establish low position, catch, bump, grind, score/draw fouls and catching on the high elbow, flashing across lane with a hook shot or hitting a turn-around J. Winning centers like Shaq and Hakkeem did the former, LMA does the latter. Dirk did some of the latter and won, but that’s because his fade-away J was insanely reliable, because he was a serious threat to drive to the rim, was surrounded with great shooters, and because he is a ~90% FT shooter.
To REALLY win in the NBA, you have to control the paint on both ends. Blazers don’t currently. They are still a great and fun and charismatic team, and I love them lots (as, I’m sure, does Dave). But I don’t expect them to own the West until they shore up their middle.
I have notably different memories of Hakeem's game than you
way more finesse than power.
by i-goes-2-da-rack on Jan 6, 2012 1:57 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
It's semantics at that point, really
Hakeem’s strength may have been his quickness and finesse, but he could still bang, if not to the degree of Shaq. And regardless, LA can’t hold a candle to him at either end of the floor, regardless of styles.
let's compare him to players at hand though
not some of the best ever. Of course he doesn’t stack up to those guys
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
No doubt - I'd need heavier meds if I suggested...
that LMA is in the same realm as Hakeem.
My comment is just that banging was not Hakeem’s game (capable or not). The specific phrase “flashing across the lane with a hook shot or hitting a turn-around J” describes The Dream’s game to a T. He was just from another dimension from the 5’s of his time and today.
by i-goes-2-da-rack on Jan 6, 2012 2:11 PM PST up reply actions
The evolution of LMA in the post...
…is perhaps what they are fretting about on other team boards. I don’t buy it that he can’t evolve into a terrifying post presence just because he has not been that just yet. (although he has already evolved from “LaMarshmallow” to “LaMonster” – right?) I just don’t buy it that other teams will address their current weaknesses but we are stuck with ours.
by i-goes-2-da-rack on Jan 6, 2012 1:55 PM PST up reply actions
I see more point paints coming from ...
baseline cuts and slashes than lobs.
"These are dreams that we have." --Rudolfo Fernandez
what team in the west has a complete game?
brutal treatment of LMA— i don’t think that’s an even-handed assessment of his game. Do you remember the array of post moves he showed last spring? how much improvement he’s made overall? and let’s face it, if he IS left open at 15-18, he’s darn near automatic. with a greater number of offensive weapons this year, he should absolutely be able to play more efficiently, and will be left open more often. and, laugh if you like, i actually expect his post game will continue to mature. in any event, i wasn’t talking about lobs above, i was talking about guards slashing, fastbreaks, etc. and i claim although these ops may not be as plentiful in the playoffs when teams make fewer mistakes, they will still be meaningful enough to give us an offensive identity. anyway, maybe the biggest point is that when players are committed to one another, good decision makers, and unselfish (and it seems that’s what this bunch is morphing into), they will find ways to be dynamic and to adapt the offense to any situation.
by Sonic Phantom on Jan 6, 2012 2:54 PM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Therefore when the chips are down the Blazers are going to have a tough time scoring easy unless they can generate those turnovers, play excellent defense, dominate the boards, and run out.
I think you can insert ANY team in the NBA in place of the Blazers in that statement. When the chips are down they are down.
LaMarcus has shown that he’s not comfortable making moves with his back to the basket and even when he gets one off he’s certainly not comfortable finishing in traffic under pressure in the paint. That is not his game. Nor does anyone else on the team provide that ability, neither in the post as a big man or off the drive as a wing or point.
As has been brought up over and over, there just aren’t many rugged interior post dominant guys in the league right now. Howard and Bynum seem to be the only ones that fit the mold. My opinion is that the league is filled with much more finesse-type players.
#7
btw, remember that dallas was the champion last year
and that we had a completely different offensive scheme. With the higher paced offense, we have so many more options, and Gerald’s effect on the team is magnified considerably (esp w/ felton running the show). And on defense, you may say KT and SMith are just immaterial role players, I say they’re difference makers. And i don’t think it’s a stretch to say that aldridge is also going to be a better defensive player this year
by Sonic Phantom on Jan 6, 2012 1:50 PM PST up reply actions
I think that both Craig Smith and Kurt Thomas are better in the front court than
those goof ball (Marks, can’t recall the names of the others) players the Blazers had last year to spell LMA and Camby. Thomas effectively worked against Bynum last night.
Also I think there is better TEAM defense this year.
Not an expert on this but it seems like the Blazers are covering defense better this year.
And it’s THE BEGINNING OF THE SEASON.
I do think the Blazers will also get better at figuring out how to cover weaknesses.
Every team has them. And the teams who win are the teams that exploit other teams weaknesses and play to its strengths.
C'mon, Dave. Lighten up.
I think that LA’s post season performance last year was not indicative of his future. He played way too many minutes carrying the team during the regular season and was slow, exhausted, & beat up by the time the post season arrived. Now last night’s 28/10 in 33 minutes is more like it. You can see him getting stronger and better conditioned each game.
Spending more time with with Felton, particularly working on Pick & Roll, should show continued improvement as the season progresses.
I suspect you will be pleasantly surprised by the team’s progress throughout the season. While a championship is very unlikely, getting beyond the first round is not.
by HiPo Steve on Jan 6, 2012 2:07 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I agree
Without some good interior defense to combat other teams the Blazers could get potentially destroyed by other decent centers. Bynum, Howard, Chandler come to mind. It is just fortunate enough that most of the other teams in the league don’t have great centers either.
The Blazers have shown to excel this year by playing free and using screens to get open looks. Aldridge has shown some abilities to take it.down low, but when Legit centers are guarding him in the playoffs he will struggle. This is why it is imperative to get a big center here ASAP so Aldridge can excel and manufacture easier points. Even someone as halfway decent as Okafor, or Hibbert would help the Blazers shore up the front line. As it is the Blazers hope in the front court still rests on Greg Oden, sigh. Let’s hope next year with all that cap space the Blazers spend money on a big man who will stay on the court. Unfortunately there are very few guys available next year who fit that criteria. Hibbert, Kaman, Dwight Howard (pipe dream).
Yes, but now he says we are good and that is the important part
And since in America, which is totally a meritocracy, people are paid based on what they are worth. So look at Barkley’s check and look at Dave’s check. So Barkley is what, a thousand times better then Dave? Sorry, that is how capitalism works. Fox news told me so.
Therefore, blazers win, call it a season, end of story.
LaMarcus Aldridge All-Star 2011-2012.
by Eat Politicians on Jan 6, 2012 12:50 PM PST up reply actions
a thousand times better then Dave?
one…hundred…billion times better
"What began as a credible protest against bank bailouts, crony capitalism and the like has, in large measure, been hijacked by crazies and criminals,"
Dave is much more charming!
charm FTW!
by i-goes-2-da-rack on Jan 6, 2012 1:32 PM PST up reply actions
Yes
"What began as a credible protest against bank bailouts, crony capitalism and the like has, in large measure, been hijacked by crazies and criminals,"
more evidence of your superior wisdom....
in spite of your inferior pay packet
by i-goes-2-da-rack on Jan 6, 2012 1:59 PM PST up reply actions
When I did a fanpost about that before the season
I got SHREDDED by the Bedge. I think I’ll order them all the Crow d’flambe.
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
Knowing the blazer's strength's is more important to the opposition than knowing the blazer's
weaknesses. If you attack a team’s strength then that team must go to its weakest links to win. What are the Blazer’s strength’s?
Low post play. Aldridge has the best low post game in the league. So double team him in the post. Aldridge is a reluctant shooter early in the clock— so back away from him and let him pass (if Aldridge doesn’t have the ball he can’t ! shoot!).
Take the ball away from Crawford and Felton. Matthews is not a good ball handler and still has a tendency to dribble too much—so force the Blazer’s to pass the ball to Matthews.
What to take away from this: encourage Aldridge to shoot whenever he is open and bench Matthews for Crawford or Batum at a moments notice.
food for thought
i like that the blazers went from back-to-back 20+ turnover games to 4 turnovers with lakers game. nate must have had a good conversation with our guards.
i also like the stat flashed on screen last night—last year blazers were 24th in league with scoring average, but this year are 4th averaging 102 pts. per game. have continually said that a key to blazer wins in cresting the 100 mark—chalupas for everyone!
great team for this lockout season, playoffs are a different story
Great post dave, I think the blazer are the perfect team to take advantage of unprepared and tired teams. If you don’t game plan to guard Aldridge he will do damage, and if you turn the ball over Wallace batum and felton are gonna run on you like there’s no tomorrow. But teams like OKC and the l*kers have reliable ways of scoring. In a playoff series bynum and gasol play more minutes and chase after more rebounds, when those guys want to get 12 boards each they will, in a slow down playoff fourth quarter the blazers scoring options are Aldridge, ridiculous jumpers that might go in from Crawford and hopefully kick outs to batum and wes, that’s not too good when you compare it to westbrook or kobe isolations, or Durant coming off great screens from collision and perkins.
Did you forget about Wallace?
He had 30 points in the game last night. More than anyone else, actually.
"Brandon Roy has done this before."
hustle points
And wallace has never played in the playoffs. I like Wallace’s ability to post up small forwards, no one at the 3 can guard him in the post so thats contributes to playoff basketball. I have no clue how little or how much Wallace will factor into fourth quarter scoring.
he played in the playoffs last year, with a team called the Balzers I think?
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
And the year before with a team called the Bobcats
and spot minutes early in his career on those Kings teams. 25 games and 442 minutes for his career.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
I've never heard of any of them
You must be lying.
Ungoogled statements ftw!!!
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
A Chip on their shoulder?
It occurred to me from what I’ve been able to see and the player interviews (mainly Wallace, partly cause that seems to be the man to interview lately). That the pace may be key, anyone else remember those multiple visits to the University of Oregon’s practices? Chip Kelly’s “gimmick” isn’t special plays, but good fundamentals with few mistakes at a break neck pace. I kinda get that feeling from these Blazers. Aside from 1 statistical anomaly, they win when they play fundamentally sound.
So if the Blazers start out at a faster pace and get faster can other teams catch up? Any way you answer that though their real weakness is in their knees, can Veteran knees sustain the pace? Only one way to find out! :D
yes I remember it and commented on it...and many thought the comment ridiculous...
football and basketball are nothing alike blah blah blah…
Well a winning attitude is key in any sport.
And that is what both the Ducks have had and the Blazers seem to have this year.
this is a great thing to want to do
good fundamentals with few mistakes at a break neck pace
but it’s certainly not an original idea to Chip Kelly. All I’ve said is that if it took Nate going to Ducks college football practice to figure that out, I’m extremely disappointed in him. You guys can credit the Ducks though, I just think that’s a slight to Nate and the players.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
Can't give Chip credit at all really
If Nate showed up at a practice or two it was because he already had something in mind and he was looking for inspiration.
Nate just picked up the pace and took on a couple of ideas for practice. Nothing else could really translate between football and basketball.
Spoelstra also spent some time at Ducks practices
and his team is doing pretty well.
same thing really
and the Heat were in the finals last year anyway
Sometimes you have to see it to believe it?
Might have been hard to piece it together when you were still relying on Roy and relatively young role players. Now that he’s got a crew with some years… Coach Nate has been rather loose this year, maybe its something in the water? Never meant to compare basketball to football though. I meant to emphasis the approach to practice and how much of that can transfer into the game. Old cliche, Practice so hard that the game seems easier.
I think Andre Miller doesn't get pointed to enough when we talk about this
AK will tell you that coaches solely dictate pace, I will tell you that Dre rarely if ever pushed the ball up the court via the dribble like Ray does. Sure he’d throw a lead pass, but he wanted to set up that half court offense.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
by sammymohawk on Jan 6, 2012 2:52 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Why's Drew now pushing the ball in Denver?
Coaches dictate pace, end of story. That’s a fact.
"I Am Mine"
Ugh, that should be Dre and not Drew.
Also, in my comment below, I should’ve used a question mark instead of a period.
When I get all wound up and stuff, I make typing errors like mad. Oh well, it happens.
"I Am Mine"
Too bad Nate McMillan met with the wrong college football coach.
“The Mad Hatter” Les Miles > Chip Kelly. Well, clock management aside.
"I Am Mine"
In short
I celebrate the fact that the Blazers are 5-1 and leading the West.
That doesn’t mean that I believe that this team has what it takes to win it all with the current cast. Too many issues with interior defense, IMO.
I ’m hoping the team proves me wrong.
by Storyteller on Jan 6, 2012 12:24 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
did you see the interior defense against bynum in 2H last night?
what about against Nene a week ago? Perhaps against cousins a couple weeks ago? Against the entire Okc team?
by Sonic Phantom on Jan 6, 2012 12:36 PM PST up reply actions
^ This
Much as I love and respect ya, Dave, you’re not doing this team justice.
"Brandon Roy has done this before."
Nah, it's till an issue
Nate finally has the personnel to run his SOS pressure defense. There’s on problem: the post. Camby and Crazy Eyes can’t take part in the traps the way we need them to. Their just too slow to play at the speed that is needed. The reason we’ve done well is because Nate’s been able to play to their strengths in man-to-man situations.
Kobe exploited the lack of foot speed in the paint multiple times last night. I don’t agree with all of Dave’s analysis this time, but he and Storyteller have the post defense spot on. If you watch the games really closely, it’s pretty obvious.
The only solution is to make a trade for a starting 4/5. The problem is finding one that will be able to replicate Camby’s rebounding without punishing us in the high-low passing game. Josh Smith and Lamar Odom can pass, but the ill-advised jumpers and downgrade in rebounding would hurt. Andrew Bogut, Anderson Varejao, and a few others could replace most of Camby’s rebounding, but the offense would possibly suffer. And, worse yet, even those guys who would kinda sorta fit are unlikely to be available for the assets that we have to offer.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
"They're" not "their"
I had a different plan for that sentence originally.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
yeah
it’s a tough situation. A consistent shot blocker would help a lot. Batum has been great in that area as well as with his rebounding this year. It will take a true team effort for this current roster to make a deep run in the playoffs, but I don’t think we are incapable. Doubling Bynum aggressively was the right thing to do and until he learns to pass he will see a ton of it.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
I'm really liking Batum this year
He’s starting to play like a miniature Marcus Camby on defense/rebounding, which is a good direction for him to go. I was strongly advocating trading him before, but he’s just been soooo good I want to keep him.
I also liked the way we looked against Bynum last night, but not the way we looked against Kobe. When he tried to shoot from the perimeter or in the lane, we could handle him. When he posted, cut, or tried to exploit mismatches in the paint, he got most of what he wanted. Guards who make a living on easy baskets are going to have a field day with us.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
Kobe is crazy because you can literally play perfect defense
and still get torched. Some of those baseline fades with Wallace right with him…what can you do?
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
I hate him soooooooooooooo much
because his advanced numbers say he’s crap, but then you watch him play…….
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
he was well defended on some of those made buckets
It was beautiful to watch. And I had to say…wow…
I don’t hate Kobe. He is a gifted player and a warrior who plays through injuries.
I really don’t like Bynum…for obvious reasons. (Wallace, Beasley, Barrea) won’t say I hate Bynum because that would mean wasted emotion on such a turd.
I think his injuries get overblown because he's Kobe
But even if they’re legit, I still hate him. Don’t try and talk me out of it.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
Until I see us dominated in the paint and lose...
I’m not convinced that post defense is our Achilles’ heel…not our strong point but we’re obviously doing enough if we’ve kept Nene and Bynum from beating us…
#7
We haven't really been dominated yet
Lost one game to LAC in which we played really sloppy. Using your line of reasoning there, I could say that I’m not convinced we have any weaknesses until we get beat on a night that we play our game.
And I don’t think anyone has implied it’s our “Achilles’ heel.” It’s a weakness that no one has exposed us on yet, but good teams are going to learn how to exploit as the season wears on. We’ll still win games, but when we lose, the opponent’s points in the paint will probably be a determining factor.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
Well so far, no one has had a dominant advantage over us in one particular spot (interior scoring vs our interior defense),
took advantage of it, and won…Obviously, it’s early in the season. Dave and Storyteller both said our interior defense has issues (thus the Achilles heel implication). You agreed. Yet no one has beat us there and won the game…meaning the other team either had sufficient other deficiencies that we were able to take advantage of or they were so weak in other parts of their offense that their advantage didn’t matter. As you said, we played sloppy against the Clips, I agree. Therefore, we don’t attribute their win to taking advantage of us in one area (our ‘weak’ interior defense, for instance). So until I see us lose to a team that totally dominates us in the paint and it is repeated by other teams (and therefore a trending issue), I don’t see our interior defense as an issue…
#7
There's a difference between something being an Achilles' heel and just being a weakness
Dave and Storyteller both said our interior defense has issues (thus the Achilles heel implication).
It’s not like any team with a penetrating guard, a slashing wing, or a dominant post player can take us down. THAT would be an Achilles’ heel. Nevertheless, it is still a weak area.
until I see us lose to a team that totally dominates us in the paint and it is repeated by other teams (and therefore a trending issue), I don’t see our interior defense as an issue
No one has taken advantage of our perimeter shooting struggles, our points in the paint inconsistency (well, LAC kind of did), or our half court struggles, either. Nevertheless, we need to be concerned about those areas, because when we get beat, it’s likely going to involve someone exploiting these areas. You don’t have to see it as an issue; but it is still an issue.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
Well we can argue over semantics but until I see us losing games and attributing it to our interior defense...
It is simply not an issue.
#7
Andrew Bogut is the one center who could fill every criteria, but he's 99.99% unavailable.
"I Am Mine"
Yeah, I know he's not really available, but I like to think it's possible if Milwaukee falls apart
Wishful thinking, I know.
However, I don’t think he fits every criteria. His passing and shooting are not as good as Camby’s. However, he’d be such an upgrade in most other areas that he’d be worth the trade off.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
The roster isn't set in stone
a trade deadline deal for a Samuel Dalembert, Marcin Gortat, Emeka Okefor or Chuck Hayes(all of those teams will likely be out of the playoff push by then, imo & willing to deal)
Paul Allen, the 2011 Trail Blazers Owner/GM
Chuck Hayes has been looking a little injury prone this year
and at his short height I’d take the other three. The Polish Hammer in particular, but I think Okafor would be a fine fit. Gotta stay conscious of chemistry and flow, I’m not sure a guy like Biedrins would fit in here right now.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
And we have what exactly to offer them?
We’d need to offer them salary relief and we have tradable salaries outside of the rotation to offer them. Dalembert, Gortat and Okafor are completely out of the question salary matching-wise, and the best we could offer for Hayes is Smith, EWill and Babbitt, which would just barely match, and I’m not sure why the Kings would take that.
If you can get one of those guys, Camby would absolutely be sent out
Any of them would be an upgrade. Camby’s played relatively well so far, but he’s still slowing down and injury prone. You’d ship him out as salary filler for a younger C in a heartbeat.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
Yeah, forgot about Camby
Although I’m not sure how much of a difference they’d make, other than being less of a health risk. None of those guys except Gortat, who would probably take more than just an EC, is much of an upgrade on Camby. Your suggestion of Varejao above is by far the best semi-realistic idea I’ve seen, to be honest.
At this point in the season, none of them would be an upgrade on Camby
But if they can play more minutes and more games, play beyond the 2011-12 season, and remove the need to worry about an old guy slowing down over the course of season, I’d call that a significant upgrade, although a trade would likely make us worse this season (assuming Camby can maintain his current level of play).
I also think Varejao is our best bet, except that Cleveland is interested in trade assets, not long-term cap relief. They want to package him to steal an All Star or near All Star. Sammy D is another semi-possible option if Houston loses Lowry to off-court troubles. Camby would actually be willing to play there, and Houston seems more interested in developing Jordan Hill than playing Dalembert, who may get cranky over minutes.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
Given that the charge against Lowry
is a misdemeanor for throwing a basketball at an official after a semi-organized pick up game nearly 5 months ago, I don’t think Houston will be too worried about it.
Ah, all I saw was the headline.
I got a little worried. I really like Lowry as a player.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
For years
he was one of the best backup PG’s in the league. I’d love to platoon him, starting or reserve.
—Dave
Felton > Lowry
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
For all the discussion of PG fit
over the offseason with the Felton/Andre swap, I can’t think of a guy who would legitimately fit here more than Lowry. Dude is seriously balling so far this year, 2nd in the league in assists, and 6th in PER, and is a serious defender. Definitely one of the best guys once you get past the true elites.
Honestly, I can't think of a team he wouldn't fit perfectly on
He’s the most complete PG on both sides of the ball, and could probably even play next to/behind guys like Rondo, CP3, Rose, etc. covering their deficiencies. So far this season, he’s the best PG besides CP3 (when you take defense into account).
And he’d absolutely fit the TrailBlazers culture perfectly. Except freaking Daryl Morey has him, is too darned smart to ever let him go.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
He wouldn't be amazing on teams that rely on the PG
for a big chunk of their offense. Even though I think he’s been better than TP recently, I think the Spurs would be worse off with Lowry. Similarly, even though Derrick Rose is obviously better, I wouldn’t be a fan of Lowry running that team, unless Rip revives himself somehow. Somewhat of a wash with Denver and Lawson for me, too, since they do a lot off of the chaos generated by his penetration.
Well, yeah, obviously he wouldn't be an upgrade over every PG
What I meant was that if you ADDED him to a team with say, TP or DRose, he’d still fit perfectly due to his well-roundedness.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
Rondo can't score consistently
We need a floor spreader at the point with the new system.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
Can't score consistently?
Nonsense. He is shooting 54% this year on 11 FG attempts per game. I don’t think we do necessarily need a floor spreader, besides we have been just fine with Felton who has been throwing up bricks from the 3 line the whole season. Rondo has shot 43% from the 3 this year(albeit small sample size & only 1 attempt per game) its a lot better then Felton’s 15% on 3 attempts per game.
Rondo is far superior to Felton on defense & rebounding skills. Far more efficient scorer too. We are also one of the few teams that if our young players can put up good numbers, could have one of the most enticing packages for the Celtics. I’d disrupt any chemistry we are worried about ruining for a Rondo trade, to have him play with Aldridge until the end of his career(not to mention, Rondo’s contract is very likeable).
Paul Allen, the 2011 Trail Blazers Owner/GM
He hits a high percentage of his shots, sure
But he CANNOT shoot, not even free throws, and will score 30 some nights, and goose eggs on others.
And if you watch both teams play, defenders always sag off Rondo. Not so much Felton. The old saying about stats and bikini’s applies here.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
Blah.
I don’t think its an issue. Look at the man formerly known as ’Ason Kidd, because he had no J for most of his career.
Paul Allen, the 2011 Trail Blazers Owner/GM
It's totally an issue
Rondo is worse than Kidd was at his age. And I rather not wait 10 years for Rondo to develop a jumper.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
Depends on your priorities
Camby’s contract won’t be wasted if we don’t move him, but if we can move him and get better at the 4/5, then you do it, since that’s our goal in the 2012 offseason anyway.
There’s a rational, happy medium between your “don’t take on salary!” approach and AK’s “move the EC’s!” approach.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
But Varejao
might not be worth that $$$ that is due to him on the contract, especially with recent health concerns(god knows we don’t need any more of those)
Paul Allen, the 2011 Trail Blazers Owner/GM
No risk, no reward. Everybody in the league has health concerns (except Dre Miller)
He’s looked fine this season coming out of rehab, and it’s his only major injury that I remember.
If he stays healthy, his contract is a steal. Most guys with his production level make $10+ million.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
at least his 4th year is a team option.
But I’d rather take my chances & try to find a young piece in the draft or in a trade on a rookie scale deal. See Taj Gibson & Kenneth Faried.
Paul Allen, the 2011 Trail Blazers Owner/GM
Those guys are decent role players,
not solid starters on an elite team. If we are trying to compete with the LMA-Wallace core, we need a known commodity, not unproven youngsters.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
I don't think Varejao is solid enough to build around
thats just my opinion.
Paul Allen, the 2011 Trail Blazers Owner/GM
would be interesting to see what shipping a team captain off would do for the season
I’d have to wonder if the increase in talent would outweigh the potential ding to team chemistry at this point. Especially in a shortened season.
It might even out though. Just a thought.
it's an important consideration
I don’t think you can under sell the value of chemistry and camaraderie to this current team. We may be Camby committed this year for that exact reason.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
thats a good point
I’d really love to see Camby stay & resign next year for Vet Min ! Unless we can get a real quality center for him. Though a trade for rookie scale guys, while keeping Camby would be WORTH IT for sure.(Like mentioned above regarding Chuck Hayes)
Paul Allen, the 2011 Trail Blazers Owner/GM
This team reminds me of the champion Piston team
no great stars but great team play and havoc wreaking team defense.
The big expcetion is that our Wallace plays more like Ben Wallace and Camby more like Prince. That and Lma doesn’t shoot 3’s like Sheed. Ben Wallace had no inside game Rasheed had some but he prefered the outside shots. But the wings liked to slash or hit jumpers. If anything the current Blazers have more of an inside presence.
Kurt Thomas and Craig Smith are the key to keeping Lma from wearing out like he did against Chandler in the post last post-season. I think the Blazers may have a very good shot this year.
And let’s not forget, historically the Blazers overacheive in lockout shortened seasons.
Speaking of that
I am still, ever since that Piston team imploded, very open to the thought of the Ancient Ben Wallace ending his career as a TrailBlazer(imagine The Geriatric Frontline reserves, Camby, KT & Big Ben lol)
Paul Allen, the 2011 Trail Blazers Owner/GM
"This team reminds me of the champion Piston team"
This above average, yet fatally flawed roster doesn’t remind me at all of that all-time elite defensive club.
"I Am Mine"
My preseason prediction is going down the drain for the only reason that matters
I predicted a whole lot of sloppy play around the NBA and in Portland, with the Blazers continuing their downward trend in winning percentage and wins with 33-35 wins. I think the first part holds true, we’re seeing some ugly basketball this year that sometimes looks like a meth tweaker rambling down the sidewalk; but the second part, I’m happy to say, is a complete fail. The home boys are are on pace for 50 or so wins. Well, that’s not going to happen but barring a long losing streak they should be good enough for 42-44 wins.
if trends always held true you'd have some 82-0 teams and 0-82 teams in the league
thankfully sports doesn’t always work that way
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
good thing for me that moving trains and season to season win totals are two completely different things then
: )
Btw, I learned this lesson the hard way after the Blazers went from 20 ish wins to 41 to 54. I said to myself, “what’s stopping them from even more next season!?”, turns out it doesn’t work that way
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
A factor that will help the Blazers is that
LA, San Antonio, Utah, Phoenix and Dallas have not improved. But the Blazers have. And that creates a different playing field when talking about the regular season and the playoffs. LA has three players, and then little else. How can they improve? San Antonio has an aging Duncan, and increasing injuries. Are they also destined for a first round exit – like last year? The era of Stockton/Malone and Boozer/Williams is gone in Utah. Is this their year? I don’t think so. Phoenix without Stoudamire and with an aging Nash is a shadow of it’s former self. Dallas has no one to replace Chandler, Berea or Butler – or not much, other than Odom. And without Chandler, they would never have gotten to the finals last year, and it’s a very fair question to ask if they would have gotten past Portland.
Sometimes, it’s useful to not just look at where we are, but where the other guy is. Who, in the West, has a combination to fully take advantage of our weaknesses?
by ebenc on Jan 6, 2012 12:30 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Good point on how many teams have gotten worse. Is this team really that different from the 99 blazers? and that team with good depth and no all-NBA first teamers made it to the conference finals.
Yes, that team was young
we have plenty of vets. The Blazers were the only young team to do well that year. The other suprise tema that year was the Knicks back when they had Camby and Kurt as the frontcourt.
33 and 22
Those are Aldridge’s and Camby’s minutes from last night…WOOOOHHHOOOO…If we can keep their minutes down and continue to win, come Playoff time Portland will be ready to make a serious run.
against the best frontcourt in the WC no less
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
Half the weaknesses with the Blazers will disappear at playoff time IF a semi-decent Greg Oden appears on court.
I know, with his health, it’s a big IF, and IF he even shows up to play, he’ll probably get hurt in the first quarter of the first game, but it’s a dream nevertheless.
by rhaegar on Jan 6, 2012 12:40 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
"You're not the only one."
Now all we need is the rest of the roster to get into "how can everybody help Nicco and Oden" mode. -- Oden Mad, Oden Smash! Sep 29, 2010 7:47 PM
Daves role...
I think Dave is trying to keep our spirits a little dampened so he won’t have to talk so many off the ledge later. Very proactive…..but…..things have looked better…beginning of season or not…and I will take it for what it is! I would rather be flying high now than never at all….I thing we all know/understand how to have our hopes dashed around here….
by BigDaddy72 on Jan 6, 2012 12:47 PM PST via mobile reply actions
I love that a Craig/Kurt front court holds its own for solid minutes
Being able to bring in a real bench line-up this season is awesome.
by poorwebguy on Jan 6, 2012 12:53 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Agree...
I don’t think they’ve been given enough credit. Smith is just starting to get some playing time. He seems solid enough and reliable enough not to make mistakes which is all you can ask of him!
#7
what do you think the odds are he ends up being named the actual GM at some point?
As in, before anyone else is named
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
I'd say not very high
Unfortunately, Paul Allen and Larry Miller seem highly allergic to admitting a mistake, and they publicly stated that Buchanan is no longer a candidate. They want someone with experience and are willing to wait until next summer when more front office types are released. In the meantime, Chad is gaining that experience they desire…
by Rodney Gustafson on Jan 6, 2012 2:18 PM PST up reply actions
I've always hated that at jobs
“We like you, but you need more experience”
“Cool, how do I get it?”
“You do stuff.”
“Cool, can I do that stuff for you and gain said experience?”
“No, you don’t have enough experience.”
It’s a wonder ANYONE gets a first job
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
credit works that way too when you own a small business
“we can approve you once you’ve taken these steps”
“we can’t take those steps without the flexibility you are witholding from us”
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
Truth
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
Not many are, unless they're a teacher or a nurse
It’s a wonder ANYONE gets a first job
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
I want to rec this,
But I just can’t. You’re right, but no rec.
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
Dave, I do not disagree with your analysis but I disagree with your conclusions.
First, this is a compacted season. Few practices, with many teams doing B2B2B, or 7 games in 11 days. What this means is very little time to gameplan. Believe me when I say that if you can see the Blazers’ weaknesses, so can the opponent. The Lakers knew coming in what the Blazers’ style of play is and how to exploit weaknesses. there just isn’t time to take advantage; heck, they don’t even have time to work on their own issues. In this setting, hustling, opportunistic style has a real chance to go far. In the playoffs things will slow down, but players will be gassed and injuries will play a factor, so predictions right now are way too premature.
Secondly, what you didn’t touch on was the Blazers’ ability to come out and make adjustments in the second half that are superior to their opponents’ adjustments. Games are not one or lost in the first half, they are won or lost in the second half. If the Blazers can continue to make the right adjustment after halftime, they sit in a superior position.
Otherwise I agree, great post.
Nolan Smith - PG of the future. Book it.
by Blazerholic on Jan 6, 2012 1:02 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Some games are lost in the first half
but normally you’re right. Still, I mostly agree with Dave’s point.
we've made great halftime adjustments so far this season
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
good point
Every game this year we have played better in the second half than our opponent excepting Philly (we both had the same point total in the 2nd half). Nate is showing that he can get his players to make better adjustments both offensively and defensively than our opponents made. Coaching veteran teams is indeed easier to get results.
Good job, Dave!
You’re getting a lot of PVs and comments! ;-)
"My shoulder is OK. And away we go." -- Nic Batum
"wang-dang diddly wubba SPROING wow-wow" -- Dave
news flash
there are exactly three teams with a low post threat in the NBA and none are better than we are.
Griz
Lakers
Magic
Denver has Nene too
I’d agree though excepting maybe LA. I’m not sure they’ve found their stride yet. Denver could still be interesting too.
Hibbert is pretty decent too
I guess when you broaden things to include the whole league there are a couple more. Probably some I’m missing.
Additional ammo against weak schedule argument
If you scroll down to misc stats on this page: http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2012.html
You’ll have a table that you can sort by Strength of Schedule. They calculate this by averaging the SRS of each team’s opponents so far. We are ranked as having faced the toughest schedule in the league so far.
SRS is basically a team’s point differential adjusted for the point differentials of the opponents they’ve faced.
Big caveat: everything is based on this season’s stats, so the sample size is very small.
We are also the #1 ranked team by SRS
I like SRS a lot, but it ignores home court advantage, effect of back to backs, etc. I think most of that comes out in the wash over the course of a long season, but it probably makes it particularly susceptible to inaccuracy when the sample size is small.
This thread is full of really good discussion
I love this place lol
I like turtles.
A displaced Sonics fan that has somehow emerged as a Blazers fan (and loves it).
by anitachampionship on Jan 6, 2012 1:28 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
The schedule is going to take its toll...
Ginobli (SA), Randolph (MEM), Gordon (NE), already out for extended time. At least two of those teams are probably playoff contenders
Nene (DEN), Kobe (LAL), Billups (LAC), Biedrins (GS), Lowry (HOU) all have minorish injuries which can take their toll.
#7
NE?
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
E is really close to O on QWORTY keyboards
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
by HailOden! on Jan 6, 2012 2:35 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
AHHH!
I was really trying hard to think of who NE would be.
I think I stayed up way too late last night…
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
WC teams that have the inside scoring that Dave says we lack?
1) the team we beat last night. How much better can they play?
2) Memphis. Do they scare you? They have to prove they can play as a team and both sides of the floor.
3) ??? Maybe the Clippers? I’ll take Aldridge, but maybe Griffin floats your boat.
Not sure there are teams to really beat us at our “weakness”.
by 52therim on Jan 6, 2012 1:38 PM PST via mobile reply actions
Also count
teams with guards or forwards who can penetrate into the paint and finish at the rim with regularity, for whom that is the dominant part, or at least a natural part, of their game.
—Dave
Denver and OKC are probably the worst of this bunch
and they’re already on the list. Mavs used to have that little guy that drove us crazy. Spurs would probably qualify with Parker, Odom. Lakers actually not so much for guards.
Still not bad at all really. Lakers would be my choice for the most worry still as Bynum/Gasol is probably the best 4/5 in the league right now. Speeding up the pace makes us as much a threat for guard penetration as OKC and Denver. Caveat being I’m positive some of our guys will finish at the rim better. I’m not saying we’ll be elite at it. We’ve always played the Spurs well.
Great post..... again Dave
Reality will strike soon for those who just want to pick out the good parts and ignore the teams weaknesses.
You have consistently pointed out the obvious.
Thank you.
It's not ignoring weaknesses, for some of us.
It’s acknowledging that our weaknesses, at worst, are no weaker than other Western teams’ weaknesses this season.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
this
which is really ironic for some reaon
Most teams have a
Center that can be expected to play over 24 minutes in a high majority of games in the season.
Ours can’t.
Most teams have a PG that is a major asset to the team. Ours may become that after he plays himself into shape.
your definition of "most"?
I don’t see it. “MOST” teams wish they had that center and that PG who is a major asset. The “haves” are definitely not a majority by a long shot.
by i-goes-2-da-rack on Jan 6, 2012 2:36 PM PST up reply actions
What is this magical land you speak of?
Where the centers prance and run, injury free? Where bones are made of jellybeans, and every rebound of cotton balls? Tell me, oh sage!
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
by haildablazer on Jan 6, 2012 2:39 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I guess if by "play" you mean "be physically present as a huge human"
Then, yeah, the other teams do have centers. If we’re talking “have an effect on the actual game”
I think the numbers go way, way down.
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
I mean on the court in the case of Camby.
Look up his minutes and games that he has been on the court.
He would be a great BACKUP Center. But we are only 1/10 into the season.
This compacted season would further ensure that he won’t be available for the major minutes or the full season or the playoffs that a True-Starting-Center is expected to play.
24 minutes of good play out of Camby ...
is good enough most of the time. 14 minutes of Kurt Thomas will be good enough after that. And 10 minutes of Aldridge at the 5 running the ball down other team’s collective second-unit throats will be good enough again after that.
"These are dreams that we have." --Rudolfo Fernandez
if bones were made of jellybeans
Felton would not be a good fit as our PG (talk about eating into someone’s minutes!)
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
by sammymohawk on Jan 6, 2012 2:50 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
And a rec for you
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
And I'm not ignoring those factors
But despite facing some of the best of those teams, we’ve done really well. Other teams have their own problems. Every team in the NBA turns the ball over more. Most don’t rebound or play team defense as well. Most lack a pair of forwards who are are each one of the 2 or 3 fastest guys at their position.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
My brain explodes a little every time I read this
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
Try having a position that is something other than you are “more grounded in reality” than me. Make your case that there are great interior scoring teams in the WC. Otherwise, your reality is in your head and doesn’t mean much to anybody but yourself.
by 52therim on Jan 6, 2012 7:37 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Dave, wait a second
when i made that argument up above in favor of the blazers, you said that a team needs to have a completely dominant paint presence on both ends to have a chance at success in the playoffs. we have guards and forwards who can penetrate aplenty. among our guards and wings, i would say it’s ‘natural’ for wallace, felton (though he’s still playing into shape), crawford, and indeed wes (still has room to get better, no doubt). Nico, not so much, but maybe some day…
by Sonic Phantom on Jan 6, 2012 2:16 PM PST up reply actions
Your argument is creeping further away from your original statement...
as you were talking about bigs and LMA’s play inside.
#7
No it's not
I was talking about LMA above because that was the subject above.
LMA not being able to score inside is an issue. It would not be an issue if Portland’s guards could compensate on a regular basis. Felton is most comfortable at mid-range, Crawford at mid-range and out. Matthews and Wallace both have issues with handle. Batum is the best hope for a combo driver-finisher but he’s not shown the inclination. If these things weren’t issues then LMA wouldn’t be either.
I’ll explain this in simple and clear fashion:
Portland’s players are all most comfortable with mid-range jumpers and beyond.
Portland’s defense is only mediocre when you consider percentage allowed, the really shining parts are scrambling and turnover-based.
Those two things break down more easily than teams with scorers who are comfortable inside and teams whose defense stops opponents from hitting a high percentage. In the short term they will look the same or the jumper-turnover thing can succeed even better than the other. In the long run the vulnerability of the style shows through.
Portland has weaknesses and strengths. Other teams have weaknesses and strengths. Portland’s particular weaknesses and strengths leave them less reliable than other teams weaknesses and strengths will.
—Dave
Portland’s particular weaknesses and strengths leave them less reliable than other teams weaknesses and strengths will.
Our record speaks otherwise. Especially considering our RPI and SOS. We are 1st and 2nd respectively…add in two absolute no-shows against the Clips and PHX and we are right where our record is expected to be (6-2).
I think it still too early to predict trends. As of right now, no team has really beat us up at our expected weaknesses (in a game we lost). So until they do and we see it repeated by other teams, I find it hard to trend it as a weakness.
#7
Who are you, Eeyore?
“When stuck in the river, it is best to dive and swim to the bank yourself before someone drops a large stone on your chest in an attempt to hoosh you there.” – Eeyore
Everyone keeps saying Greg coming back would solve all our problems.
How would an out of game shape 7 footer who has played 1 season over 4 1/2-5 affect our newly found pace of play. I guess if all he is doing is rebounding then I guess positively, but I just don’t see him being able to keep up at all.
I think he'd have to play off the bench for awhile
That’d still be awesome though.
rebound ----> outlet
that’s all he’d have to do. The bigs don’t need to keep up, they show up when the fast break fails.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
I tend to agree with you
The Blazers’ all star so far has been chemistry. It would have to be seen if Greg could slide in easily or if he’d gum up the works. I’m of the feeling that his hustle would fit right in, but who knows what Greg’s game is anymore?
"Brandon Roy has done this before."
I think center is one of the easier positions to do it at
and since Oden is also a capable passer, I would think it’s doable. Now we just need a healthy Greg
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
precisely
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
I was just talking to a buddy of mine about this
We both agree that it would be easy for Greg to come right in. Camby is only going 25 a night, and you really think Chris Johnson has the clout to complain?
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
I'm not in the "solve ALL our problems" camp
…but even a rusty Oden would represent a massive boost in rebounds and shot blocking. Having him back would, IMHO, definitely change the complexion of our team in a way that I think would mean WCF at the least. Surely nobody here thinks that basketball doesn’t favor the very, very tall at the end of the day.
by i-goes-2-da-rack on Jan 6, 2012 2:43 PM PST up reply actions
Scoreboard.
Here is the list of teams in the Western Conference with genuine post threats:
LA
DEN
SA
UTA
NO
LAC
MIN
That’s it. We already beat the top two teams on that list by a lot. We played a terrible game against LAC and barely lost. We are considerably better than all the teams on that list we haven’t yet played with the possible exception of the Spurs and we will find out soon enough how we look against them.
Hakeem isn’t walking through that door. Charles Barkley and Patrick Ewing aren’t walking through that door. Andrew Bynum walked through the door and we promptly sent him on his way. Dwight Howard plays in the East for now. The one guy who IS walking through that door may in fact be Greg Oden and he plays for us.
These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others. -Groucho Marx
Kevin Love is even softer than LMA in the post.
If Dave is saying we don’t have a reliable post threat, no way in hell does Minny. And Timmy is really old nowadays.
That leaves LA (beat), DEN (beat), UTA (not a threat), NO, and LAC. Clips and L*L are the only ones that scare me in 7.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
by HailOden! on Jan 6, 2012 2:18 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
my point exactly
If something keeps us out of the Finals this year it certainly won’t be someone else’s low post guy. Yao Ming isn’t walking through that door either.
These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others. -Groucho Marx
by RDreamer on Jan 6, 2012 2:32 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Well, unless we face an LA team in the 1st round.
Then it may be another team’s low post guy.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
Likes about the team so far:
Pace, Defense, Attitude
Selflessness, for the most part. See my Crawford gripe below.
Dislikes & minor gripes about the team so far:
The team are one big man injury away from serious trouble. If that big man is Thomas we’re probably ok. If Camby goes down, yikes. Love ya Craig Smith, but you aren’t 6’11" with long arms. And I won’t even bother to write about what would happen if LA were out for a period. Let’s just pretend that will never happen mmk?
Crawford’s “crossover-dribble-I’m-about-to-shoot” thing. Like any volume shooter when he makes them we’re happy. But he’s streaky too and is known for taking shots anyway. That super long distance three from the Laker game last night is a good example. Love that he made it. Poor shot selection. Wish he were a little more patient with the ball but that’s part of the swagger we appreciate too. He wouldn’t be the dribble-penetration guard he is without some fearlessness.
Batum is back in the Twilight Zone. And the sad part is, due to Wallace’s beastly game, he’s going to stay there for quite a while. Some nights he’s the 8th guy on the floor. And while I know that there’s little Nate can do to adjust his minutes with the core the Blazers have, it still makes me sad to see his potential wasted. He’d be a third scoring option for the bottom half of the teams in the league.
Paging Nolan Smith. We’ve seen you for exactly 10 minutes in 6 games and none in the past 4. I get it. Nate is relying on a three guard roation of Felton, Matthews & Crawford. But in an 82 game season, normally we’d see a rookie like Smith at least play some meaningful minutes early on. Throw him in the pool. See if he sinks. I’d like to see a little more personally.
"You know, when you are in the game, you hear 20,000 people behind you, you don't feel anything."
- Nicolas Batum on playing through his shoulder injury during the 2010 playoffs.
"Poor shot selection"
its not like it wasn’t open. He practices that shot, for better or worse. If no one guards him out there, I bet his % is actually quite high. I agree about patience though, a couple games when he is, he actually looks like a legit point guard.
Paul Allen, the 2011 Trail Blazers Owner/GM
Wow. Debbie Downer, meet Downer Dave.
I think you’re being a little harsh in some respects.
I think LMA has definitely become a low-post threat. I like the fact that he is not relegated to the post exclusively because teams must plan for everything. He will make it difficult on opposing game plans.
True we may not have a guy who can get inside at will (ala Brandon Roy). But how many do? What we do have is a number of players who can handle the ball very well. We have multiple options for the pick and roll out of every set, which can help us get a mismatch on a switch. Case in point last night: Crawford got Bynum on a PnR switch, hesitate-dribbled him and went straight to the rim and scored. This could happen with a number of players all over the floor.
Rebounding. We have two centers who have made careers of rebounding the ball. We have possibly the best rebounding small forward in the NBA. And we have athletes and long arms all over the floor. I would rather have a team effort rebounding the ball every time than one or two guys I lean on to board every possession.
Lastly, if what you’re saying is that our team depends too much on capitalizing on other teams’ mistakes, the flip side of that argument is that other teams must play mistake-free basketball to beat us. I don’t see that happening very often, even in the playoffs, with our frenetic pace (if it lasts), our length, and our athletic depth.
Certainly this team is not perfect. But I don’t think we’re playing well just because other teams are tired, haven’t gelled, or haven’t seen enough of our new style to prepare. We’re good. And other teams will have to be better to beat us. So far that hasn’t happened but once, and I believe it will continue to not happen very often.
"These are dreams that we have." --Rudolfo Fernandez
by bfan on Jan 6, 2012 2:22 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
Careful
Debbie Downer could be a mortal insult on the Bedge!
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
in a league in which 50% shooting is extraordinary
There’s no such thing as playing perfectly. We force tons of turnovers, clean the glass, and run teams ragged with our pace which makes them even more error prone. It’s a good recipe for success even against elite teams.
These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others. -Groucho Marx
by RDreamer on Jan 6, 2012 2:37 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
No offense, but I stopped reading at the Lakers are more talented than the Blazers...
I was at that game last night, and the better, more talented team won. The Lakers bench looked like a D-League squad out there. There were times when they were playing Bynum and four scrubs (yes, this includes Steve Blake and Metta World Peace). Believe me, these aren’t your same old Lakers, and our Blazers aren’t what they used to be either. I’ve been holding back until now, tentatively wondering when the Blazers are going to come back down to earth. Apparently Dave is doing the same, but I think it’s starting to wear a little thin. These Blazers have the chance to put something special together this year. Something feels different, even after all the high expectations and poor results of years past. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see, but I prefer to see the glass as overflowing as opposed to half full all the time. That way I can enjoy this team and their success for however long it lasts.
by ptblazen247 on Jan 6, 2012 3:25 PM PST reply actions 3 recs
I think Dave is misunderestimating the PDX defense
Crash, We$ and Nico are going to be a problem for every teams wings. LMA if not the best defense 4 in the league is at least best defensive 4 who also gets 20+ ppg. Camby will be challenged by Dwight Howard , Andrew Bynum and maybe Bogut , KT knows how to use his fouls and most 5’s are pretty poor FT shooters.
the truth hurts. fox news is painless
by Biph on Jan 6, 2012 3:27 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
Man this post ruffled some feathers.
I love it. No real end in sight to these arguments. But I guess that’s why they play the games. Will be interesting to see if we jump on a helpless Phoenix team, or rest on our laurels after a big win at home. If the former, another check in the “we could be really really good” column. If not, well … there’s still more games to play.
"These are dreams that we have." --Rudolfo Fernandez
Wow...just wow...
I think Dave might be one of the only analysts in the entire NBA who doesn’t believe the currently constructed Blazers are legit at pretty much anything.
Basically, Dave said, in a whole lot of words, the Blazers are just getting lucky, because other teams haven’t pulled it together yet.
Well, Dave, consider this…..the Blazers haven’t pulled it together yet either. They sure look like they have though, don’t they? Ponder that, consider what THAT might mean going forward.
I’m not going near the low-post thing with a 10-foot pole, but I do think the language choice regarding Lamarcus Aldridge’s game was pretty harsh, and thus, falls outside the bounds of constructive criticism, which I have previously enjoyed from Dave.
I do find it interesting that the better the Blazers play, the more cynical and pessimistic Dave’s analysis becomes. Just weird. And kinda sad.
Go Blazers!
I'd also like to note..
that having a superior low-post player does not guarantee you a win anymore than relying on defense-to-offense and good possession of the ball. Maybe your odds are better, but sure thing? No way.
Case in point: Andrew Bynum, last night. He shot 7-7, but in the 2nd half, only made 2 more of his next 9 attempts. He was arguably playing a perfect low-post game in the first half, but was largely ineffective in the 2nd. Point is, ANYONE can be taken out of their game. Look at what happens to Dwight Howard! Like, ALL THE TIME! He’s great, powerful, dominant….and the Magic lose. A lot. They also haven’t exactly been a superior playoff team either. Just sayin’
Go Blazers!
With every early win my teeth are rattling, remembering NOH's 12-5 start.
Fresh look Hornets under Monty Williams took the league by surprise, starting the season on a 8 win tear, pasting wins on Denver, San Antonio, Miami, and Portland. Another streak hit in January (this one a 10 game streak, with equally impressive opponents, but many very close games).
When all was said and done, they were a 46 win team that was bounced in the first round.
Teams haven’t gotten the hang of the 2011-12 Blazers yet, but they will. It’s not like we found the key that was lost, Kolwynia, and are using our mighty forgotten magic to vanquish our foes. We’re this year’s NOH, and the return to reality will occur.
All the same, this is some dang fun basketball to watch, and I hope it takes a good long time for the league to figure us out!
Doers & Makers > Movers & Shakers
A Jack of Shadows reference? Holy Morningstar Batman!
I disagree though. The Blazers play much better D than the Hornets, which is sustainable, and our wins have all been of the 10+ point differential variety.
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
by haildablazer on Jan 6, 2012 6:01 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Awesome points for you, haildablazer!
I was pretty sure nobody would get that. As far as I knew only myself and the friend that loaned it to me have read that wonderful book.
Doers & Makers > Movers & Shakers
I read it a while ago
My parent’s house is basically a library. Agree, great book.
I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.
Great comparison!
And yeah, these Blazers are far, far closer to those Hornets than last season’s Mavs or the ‘03-’04 Pistons.
"I Am Mine"
I think the Blazers can manufacture and sustain inside scoring and defense
LMA is long enough and quick enough to score with either or both talents as an advantage against any player in the league. If – and that is a big IF – the Blazers are able to get LMA the ball and play effectively off any double team he draws, then the Blazer offense is sustainable. It will take smart play from a multitude of passers – but there are sufficient options to justify high expectations.
Defensively, the Blazers have a legitimate claim as the best overall collection of footspeed and length in the NBA. This group isn’t particularly powerful, but speed and length are very important talents – and relative to the rest of the West, makes the Blazers the least vulnerabe defensive squad on the court.
Last, I don’t think any of the west contenders have sufficient strengths to outright overwhelm the Blazer weaknesses.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Jan 6, 2012 5:03 PM PST via mobile reply actions 1 recs
I love the thought you put into this...
even if it reminds me of that SNL skit… what’s it called again? Oh yeah, Davey Downer. ;-)
I don’t know, at the end of the day, our plethora of rangy, scrappy defenders seems like the advantage. I’m not prepared to say we win the title or anything, but a 1st Round out? Seems unlikely. You’re willing to say other teams will improve as they get their legs and jell… what’s to stop that from happening with this squad as well? What if they actually play BETTER in a months time?
They’re due.
Wherever you may be; good night, eeeeeeverybody!
by you'vegottomakeyourfreethrows on Jan 6, 2012 6:15 PM PST reply actions
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