Just What Can the Blazers Do This Offseason? Dwight AND Deron?
I love our Portland Trailblazers. I love the players we have on our team. Each and every one of them. I want them to succeed. And, like every bling homer, I believe that this team has a chance to compete in the clogged West.
However, reality is that this team, as constructed, is right in the middle of that clog. Right in the middle of that second tier. And perhaps there are many who would call that optimistic. But that’s who I am. Who knows, maybe the Blazers pull it all together in the playoffs, produce a very successful team, and work to resign as many players from this squad as possible. I would not complain about that.
But when this offseason comes, how is the Blazers’ flexibility?
The only players who will be under contract for sure will be LaMarcus Aldridge, Wesley Matthews, Kurt Thomas, Luke Babbitt, Elliot Williams and Nolan Smith. We also have a first round draft pick.
Gerald Wallace is expected to opt out of his contract to get more money. As is Jamal Crawford. But neither are guaranteed to do so.
Nicolas Batum and Armon Johnson will be restricted free agents. Greg Oden, Raymond Felton, Marcus Camby, Craig Smith and Chris Johnson will be unrestricted free agents.
Now, there are cap holds for free agents, unsigned 1st round draft picks, unused roster spots.
According to Storyteller, on July 1st, 2012, we will have $43,179,781 tied up in salary and cap holds. Plus around $1.5 million (+/-) for our 1st rounder. The salary cap last season was $58,044,000. I don’t expect that number to move much for the 2012 season, given the shortened season. That means without signing Batum, Oden, any kind of PG or Center, or have more than 9 players on the roster, we will be about $14 million under the cap.
Not bad, but there are too many holes to fill. We can resign our own guys. If Camby is up for another year. If Felton improves in the second half of the season. If Batum isn’t too cheezed about the non-extension. If Oden comes back at all. If Wallace and Crawford don’t want too much more money.
With all of that, it is possible to bring back the team we have this year. In order to make another run in the middle of the pack. If that happens, fine. I’ll be there cheering. But for the team, championships are the goal, not just another year of fielding the same guys.
There is another approach. And it is a lot riskier. But the reward is instant championship contention.
Wallace and Crawford are both expected to opt out. Batum and all of our free agents and unsigned draft picks can be renounced. 1st round draft picks, especially in 2012 can be traded into next year fairly easily. And we can play the free agent game at the big stakes table.
I’m talking about going after both Dwight Howard and Deron Williams.
Is that even possible? Both are likely to get max contracts. Howard is set to earn $18,905,899 in 2012 under a max contract free agent signing. Williams $17,095,996. We would need to clear $36,001,885 in cap space to sign both. If the salary cap remains static, we need to get our salaries and cap holds down to $22,042,115. Letting everyone walk and dumping our first rounder gets us down to $28,926,401. Only $6,884,286 to go.
Storyteller has these salaries listed:
Aldridge: $14,000,000
Matthews: $6,505,320
Babbitt: $1,892,280
Thomas: $1,352,181
Williams: $1,442,880
Smith: $1,365,720
We also have a cap hold at minimum salary for each roster spot under 13. Minimum salary in 2011-2012 was $473,604. At the signing of a player, the cap hold disappears. So if we assume we’re going to sign Howard and Williams, that puts us at 8 players, leaving five minimum cap holds totaling $2,368,020. So those are the numbers that we need to cut $6,884,286 from.
And the obvious choice is Matthews. In fact, he’s the only choice. Matthews and one other player need to be traded for an expiring contract, or to a team willing to give up cap space for them. It’s a shame to give him up. He’s exactly the player we need in a D. Will-LMA-Howard big three. But his salary is keeping that from being possible. Perhaps the Nash rumors or the Kaman contract might be worth the short term loss in talent. Perhaps there is another offer available. But if Portland ends up trading Matthews for nothing, then they’ve figured this out too.
But is it all really worth the risk? Players like Matthews aren’t exactly rare, but they don’t grow on trees either. Is it really worth the chance to lose Matthews for nothing? Because there are a lot of teams that have been looking forward to the summer of 2012. What’s stopping Howard and D. Will from going elsewhere?
Because Portland is the only team that can offer to give Howard and Williams a big three with which to contend against the likes of Miami. Cleveland can clear enough space to sign both, but their "star" is in his rookie year and plays the same position is D. Will. New Jersey could sign both, but it would be the big two and Brook Lopez. Perhaps Brooklyn and marketing are a bigger draw than championship contention? Boston could make a run at both, provided they give Rondo away for nothing while renouncing Bird rights to Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen.
Houston and Indiana can clear enough room to sign one of the two. So could New Orleans, if they renounced Eric Gordon. Philadelphia could be in play if Elton Brand exercises his player option, which I would think is unlikely. Washington might be able to make enough room as well. Nobody else really has a shot.
So in short, no other team can put together three All-NBA players onto the same team like Portland can, except maybe Boston, if they’re willing to give up that much (and they might).
But what happens if we go through all this, and they sign elsewhere? The only real asset we would have given up is Matthews. Without the signings, we would retain all our Bird rights, and Batum’s RFA status. We could still go after Eric Gordon to replace Matthews. We could still improve the team from where it is today.
But the risk involved in trying for a big three like this is well worth the reward in my opinion. The chance for Howard and D. Will to get paid and play for championships, I think will be a better pull than Brooklyn’s lights. Plus, after signing we would retain the $2.5 million Room Exception to sign an extra player with. And we can sign as many Minimum Contracts as necessary to fill the roster, like Craig Smith. And I think some vets would be willing to sign up for a chance at a ring.
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Low risk, high reward!
As always, thanks for the great post, Darkstar!
There is a place for this kind of thinking
Gamblers Anonymous!
Great post. I’ll have to read it again more carefully.
by XBlazerfan on Jan 31, 2012 2:22 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Heck at this point
its worth it if we only get one of them to come here, let alone both. If we can make this happen we should do everything in our power to make it possible. Great post, its the first serious post ive seen on the Dwight to Portland scenario that was realistic. Rec !
by cavejunctionblazer on Jan 31, 2012 2:38 PM PST reply actions
If we can only get one, then New Jersey has a big step up.
Not to say I wouldn’t take it, but it’s probably going to be both or neither.
"Anybody might guess beforehand that there would be blunders of the ignorant. What nobody could have guessed, what nobody could have dreamed of in a nightmare, what no morbid mortal imagination could ever have dared to imagine, was the mistakes of the well-informed." - G. K. Chesterton, The Common Man
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Unless there's a Howard for Bynum S&T
I’m not sure if Dwight would rather be in Brooklyn with Deron, or in LA with Kobe and Gasol.
Here’s another thing: IF Dwight is traded to Chicago or one of the LA teams at the deadline, Deron will be looking for a new home without Howard. In that case, I think we would have a decent shot of landing Deron and keeping Crash and Batum.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
ALOT depends on what happens with Dwight
that will force Dwills hand
by cavejunctionblazer on Jan 31, 2012 2:52 PM PST up reply actions
Going to a long month of February for the Magic.
They are already taking trade him now and we are still a month and a half from the trade deadline….
by FPS NorthWest on Jan 31, 2012 2:58 PM PST up reply actions
If DWIll can't team with Dwight
I can’t see him going anywhere but Dallas.
It's been said Deron is loving life in NYC after being stuck in SLC
I’m not so sure he’d be excited to return to the northwest.
"...it was like he brought his own personal cross-wind to the arena." - Dave
money talks
we are gonna be 1 of the top spenders next season and we have a top PF to pair him with
by cavejunctionblazer on Jan 31, 2012 2:58 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, he already said that the market doesn't matter. He wants to win.
Sure, he loves it in NY. But will he enjoy playing for the Nets with Lopez and Anthony Morrow as his best sidekicks?
The big draw there is if NJ lands Howard. But if they don’t, what’s Williams supposed to do?
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
Exactly
Im sure he will go for the money, unless there is a sure fire spot where he can be in immediate contention for a champonship. Which pairing Deron with LMA is certainly a good start toward a championship so maybe we have a good shot at this? Imagine we get Deron and then PA just offers Howard some massively exhorbitantly bloated contract that he couldnt refuse? That would be one of the most fearsome big threes in the history of the game!
by cavejunctionblazer on Jan 31, 2012 3:13 PM PST up reply actions
I can't wait for PA
To offer the exact same massively exorbitant contract every other team in the NBA would love to sign Dwight for.
| 23.1 | .647 | .605 | 15.6 | 28.3 | 21.9 | 6.7 | 0.9 | 7.7 | 17.8 | 20.7 | 118 | 100 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | .214 |
Yeah, I think our best bet is to hope Dwight goes somewhere that Deron can't
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
If dwight gets traded...
D will will not come to Portland… Why? One word … “Dallas”
He’d go home before thinking of signing with the blazers.
I think chances of landing both is higher than landing 1.
by Hoi on Jan 31, 2012 3:27 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Dallas will have to do a whole lot of finagling in order to get either.
"Anybody might guess beforehand that there would be blunders of the ignorant. What nobody could have guessed, what nobody could have dreamed of in a nightmare, what no morbid mortal imagination could ever have dared to imagine, was the mistakes of the well-informed." - G. K. Chesterton, The Common Man
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And there was a rumor back during free agency that Deron would only want to play in Dallas
if both Dirk and Tyson Chandler were still there. I don’t think he wants to sign with all those old vets just to end up in another losing situation 2-3 years down the road.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
Amnesty Brendan Haywood.
Lamar Odom’s salary next season is only partially guaranteed, too.
"I Am Mine"
It seems like the risk would be not doing this.
by Escrote on Jan 31, 2012 2:49 PM PST reply actions 5 recs
what risk?
losing Matthews?
besides Matthews decent contract (he’s not overpaid not underpaid), he’s easily replaceable.
Wings are a dime a dozen in this league, especially mediocre wings.
"If you can do a half-assed job of anything, you're a one-eyed man in a kingdom of the blind."
by thankyouforblaze on Jan 31, 2012 4:15 PM PST up reply actions
I almost did the same thing.
There’s a little word in there that my eyes kept passing over. Escrote agrees with you, I believe.
"Anybody might guess beforehand that there would be blunders of the ignorant. What nobody could have guessed, what nobody could have dreamed of in a nightmare, what no morbid mortal imagination could ever have dared to imagine, was the mistakes of the well-informed." - G. K. Chesterton, The Common Man
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bold italics to the rescue
It seems like the risk would be not doing this.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
lol, whoops.
me fail english? that’s unpossible
"If you can do a half-assed job of anything, you're a one-eyed man in a kingdom of the blind."
by thankyouforblaze on Feb 2, 2012 12:49 PM PST up reply actions
Eric Gordon would not sign for Wesley Matthews type money even if the Blazers magically made this happen.
Gordon is plan B if Howard and D-Will sign else where.
by FPS NorthWest on Jan 31, 2012 2:52 PM PST up reply actions
Gordon is a RFA.
No way NO lets go of him without matching.
by Hoi on Jan 31, 2012 3:29 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
You might be right.
Hard to tell what NO will do, especially with big offers.
"Anybody might guess beforehand that there would be blunders of the ignorant. What nobody could have guessed, what nobody could have dreamed of in a nightmare, what no morbid mortal imagination could ever have dared to imagine, was the mistakes of the well-informed." - G. K. Chesterton, The Common Man
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There are a lot of alternatives when you have capspace
We could add a vet like Ray Allen as a stop gap, or add a young guy like Courtney Lee. Eric Gordon is just one (albeit ideal) scenario.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
I don't think that's what T Darkstar meant at all
We’d have enough capspace to offer Eric Gordon far more than Wesley Matthews type money.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
Yeah, I was thinking $10-12 million range.
We’d have the cap space.
"Anybody might guess beforehand that there would be blunders of the ignorant. What nobody could have guessed, what nobody could have dreamed of in a nightmare, what no morbid mortal imagination could ever have dared to imagine, was the mistakes of the well-informed." - G. K. Chesterton, The Common Man
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What about Dallas?
they have a lot of expiring contracts set up and the end of the season and are planning to do exactly this, except with Nowitzki instead of aldridge? will they have the cap space to sing them both?
"Wide, girthy. Just like a Rhino. Sometimes my horns are visible."
Nope, they still have Marion, Haywood, and Carter, plus some smaller contracts and $2.4 million
in guaranteed money for Lamar Odom. They can only amnesty one.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
If they really squeezed.
Like renouncing Terry, Kidd, and others, alongg with dumping Beaubois and a couple other contracts for nothing, they could squeeze one of the two.
"Anybody might guess beforehand that there would be blunders of the ignorant. What nobody could have guessed, what nobody could have dreamed of in a nightmare, what no morbid mortal imagination could ever have dared to imagine, was the mistakes of the well-informed." - G. K. Chesterton, The Common Man
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Yeah, but Cuban's goal is both
I just can’t see that happening. And I can’t see one going there without the other. It’s not like Dirk is a spring chicken.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
Which is why I left them off of my list.
Washington has a better chance than Dallas. And Washington has no chance.
"Anybody might guess beforehand that there would be blunders of the ignorant. What nobody could have guessed, what nobody could have dreamed of in a nightmare, what no morbid mortal imagination could ever have dared to imagine, was the mistakes of the well-informed." - G. K. Chesterton, The Common Man
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Totes def.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
by HailOden! on Jan 31, 2012 3:07 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
If dallas can't pull it off this offseason,
then we actually have a really good chance. just need aldridge to make some freinds at olympic tryouts, and otis smith to be stupid enough not to trade dwight before the deadline. those are both pretty good chances, since Otis Smith is probably one of the worst GMs in the league, and LMA seems like a pretty cool dude.
"Wide, girthy. Just like a Rhino. Sometimes my horns are visible."
A lot of things can derail this.
A Howard trade.
A Wallace injury.
Crawford deciding that he really likes Portland and doesn’t want to go after more money.
Finding no one to take Matthews’ contract off of our hands.
"Anybody might guess beforehand that there would be blunders of the ignorant. What nobody could have guessed, what nobody could have dreamed of in a nightmare, what no morbid mortal imagination could ever have dared to imagine, was the mistakes of the well-informed." - G. K. Chesterton, The Common Man
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it's a risk.
but opening up the capspace this offseason and taking one last shot at a team around LaMarcus is a risk worth taking if we can manage it. and if we can’t, then we rip it up and start over instead of being trapped in mediocrity.
"Wide, girthy. Just like a Rhino. Sometimes my horns are visible."
It would make the whole Roy and Oden
situation a lot more forgettable.
No, Dallas has a better chance than Washington, Portland, et cetera.
Amnesty Brendan Haywood, waive Lamar Odom — who’s salary is only partially guaranteed for $2.4 million next season — then move Shawn Marion post-July moratorium to a team with cap space along with Roddy Beaubois and Dominique Jones. If Nash and Hill leave Phoenix once July hits, the Suns are a team that could potentially bite on a Marion/Beaubois/Jones for a future second-rounder in a salary dump.
"I Am Mine"
all this talk
about what other teams might discard sounds like there might be some pretty interesting players available next year if plan A falls through. Could we trade Matthews for future draft picks and filler? Could we then cut the filler?
I'd agree with you, but then we'd both be wrong.
sign Hibbert, period.
however, I don’t think IND will ever let him leave.
"If you can do a half-assed job of anything, you're a one-eyed man in a kingdom of the blind."
by thankyouforblaze on Jan 31, 2012 4:17 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah it would take a good amount of money for them not to match...
curious what that number would be tho
by FPS NorthWest on Jan 31, 2012 4:29 PM PST up reply actions
$13 mil a year, front loaded?
they’d easily match $10mil.
"If you can do a half-assed job of anything, you're a one-eyed man in a kingdom of the blind."
by thankyouforblaze on Jan 31, 2012 8:14 PM PST up reply actions
HIBBERT.
I’ve been on board, since we passed on him for Bayless :(
"We gotta get this $#!^ together guys!" - Phil
In hindsight that was such a bad decision.
by Oden Mad, Oden Smash! on Feb 1, 2012 12:06 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
I feel like at the time
it was an obviously bad decision. I guess they thought we had Oden, but did anyone really thing Bayless was going to be a star in the league?
We need to show D Ho that Portland can make Movies/TV shows too
That might convince him.
i like it here, there, everywhere.
There is a Baldwin around here somewhere.
i like it here, there, everywhere.
by Name's Ash on Jan 31, 2012 2:58 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Portlandia is as big a disappointment as
a 2007 draft pick.
by Sheedwasright on Feb 2, 2012 3:10 PM PST up reply actions
The other thing I wanted to say
thanks again for pointing out just how much money we might have to go after some of the better players out there. It makes it easier to get through a tougher season knowing there is some light at the end of the tunnel.
by cavejunctionblazer on Jan 31, 2012 2:54 PM PST reply actions
Don't forget this is all dependent on both Crawford AND Wallace opting out
If they don’t, we have far less to play with.
"...it was like he brought his own personal cross-wind to the arena." - Dave
lol, if they don't we add $17 million to the books
we’ll go from $27mil on the books to $44 mil, and we prob will make the same kind of signings as we did this offseason.
"If you can do a half-assed job of anything, you're a one-eyed man in a kingdom of the blind."
by thankyouforblaze on Jan 31, 2012 4:19 PM PST up reply actions
At that point, it just makes sense to hold all of our cap holds, and use the MLE.
"Anybody might guess beforehand that there would be blunders of the ignorant. What nobody could have guessed, what nobody could have dreamed of in a nightmare, what no morbid mortal imagination could ever have dared to imagine, was the mistakes of the well-informed." - G. K. Chesterton, The Common Man
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so what you're saying is
everybody at the RG needs to boo the moment Craw and Wallace touch the ball, all while simultaneously tweeting to Howard and D-Will that the booing is so that we can entice those two to leave creating room for them to join next season? That kind of commitment from a fan-base cannot be overlooked.
I have a feeling if they were going to decide something like this
They would talk to the players and get a basic understanding if they will opt out or not. Even so, if we get a 1st out of Wes, it still leaves us with Crawford/Williams/Batum/Smith at the 2, so I don’t think we’ll be hurting that much from his loss.
And I can’t see people booing someone on our own team without a real reason. I doubt many casual fans would realize that this is a possibility, but only if they both opt out.
by Batumshakalaka on Feb 1, 2012 9:59 AM PST up reply actions
it would be helpful
to know the order of events that would have to play out for plan A to work? and what is the worst case scenario at each point.. When does plan B kick in/ When one or both of the superstars sign with another team?
I'd agree with you, but then we'd both be wrong.
Exactly.
"Anybody might guess beforehand that there would be blunders of the ignorant. What nobody could have guessed, what nobody could have dreamed of in a nightmare, what no morbid mortal imagination could ever have dared to imagine, was the mistakes of the well-informed." - G. K. Chesterton, The Common Man
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Let me get the order of operations straight.
We don’t have to renounce our bird rights on our players to offer the contracts to DWill and D12 so if we swing and miss we can still retain Oden, Felton and Batum. What about the cap holds from the Euro’s?
Step 1: Make offers
Step 2: Accept or decline
Step 3: Renounce everybody
Step 4: Sign superstars
It was my understanding that we had to renounce our players before making the offers meaning the risk is much much higher if the superstars don’t sign with us.
by Oden Mad, Oden Smash! on Jan 31, 2012 2:57 PM PST via mobile reply actions
It's the former
Ideally, the FO could hammer out the details with the players during the July moratorium (the first week in July), when no signings or trades can take place.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
We have to feasibly have the space.
Matthews has to go first. Then the offers are made. Then if they are accepted, the renouncing happens.
It’s not like I want to lose Matthews for nothing. But this isn’t exactly nothing.
"Anybody might guess beforehand that there would be blunders of the ignorant. What nobody could have guessed, what nobody could have dreamed of in a nightmare, what no morbid mortal imagination could ever have dared to imagine, was the mistakes of the well-informed." - G. K. Chesterton, The Common Man
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Then we want to target future first round picks and an expiring in return for Wes.
Aim high for something like Diaw and a top 5 protected 2014 pick.
by Oden Mad, Oden Smash! on Jan 31, 2012 3:48 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Actually
If we trade nolan camby and wallace (assuming batum will be ok) we could probably get dwight. Then try to sign deron to an 8 mill contract? And lose felton cj mattews babbit oden and crawford. Keep craig smith, and E.T.(elliot) and maybe kurt. Try to sign a legit center backup and better gaurds? So we have deron lma howard batum freeland(if he comes over?) A possible thomas craig smith,ewill. Unless im missing someone? If we did this how would our cap look and how much could we spend?
Formally known as: My_name_a_rudy
by Blaze_that_trail on Jan 31, 2012 2:58 PM PST via mobile reply actions
DWill isn't signing for $8 million a year.
Mike Conley makes that much.
"Say his NAME, Portland. Gerald Wallace is...awesome." -Dave, 4/9/11
Deron will make between $12-15 mil a year
i mean, common, even Batum was asking for $9mil a year
"If you can do a half-assed job of anything, you're a one-eyed man in a kingdom of the blind."
by thankyouforblaze on Jan 31, 2012 10:50 PM PST up reply actions
I wouldn't even set the upper bound at $15mil
but either way, the point stands.
"Say his NAME, Portland. Gerald Wallace is...awesome." -Dave, 4/9/11
good point. He'll make near max money, period.
but I’m sure if we just talked to Dwight we could get him for the minimum.
Haha.
"If you can do a half-assed job of anything, you're a one-eyed man in a kingdom of the blind."
by thankyouforblaze on Jan 31, 2012 11:01 PM PST up reply actions
Intentional or not, "Hoard" is a pretty clever nickname for Dwight Howard
He’s exactly the player we need in a D. Will-LMA-Hoard big three.
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
Oops for typos.
Er, I mean, yes, it is clever.
"Anybody might guess beforehand that there would be blunders of the ignorant. What nobody could have guessed, what nobody could have dreamed of in a nightmare, what no morbid mortal imagination could ever have dared to imagine, was the mistakes of the well-informed." - G. K. Chesterton, The Common Man
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But I fixed it anyways.
Still, it will live on forever down here in your comment.
"Anybody might guess beforehand that there would be blunders of the ignorant. What nobody could have guessed, what nobody could have dreamed of in a nightmare, what no morbid mortal imagination could ever have dared to imagine, was the mistakes of the well-informed." - G. K. Chesterton, The Common Man
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I'm not gonna let that die if he becomes a Blazer
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
What chance does Orlando have of him staying?
Do they have the ability to offer him a max contract?
by cavejunctionblazer on Jan 31, 2012 3:19 PM PST reply actions
Orlando can offer him a bigger contract than anyone else.
But they haven’t been able to convince Howard to take it to stay yet.
"Anybody might guess beforehand that there would be blunders of the ignorant. What nobody could have guessed, what nobody could have dreamed of in a nightmare, what no morbid mortal imagination could ever have dared to imagine, was the mistakes of the well-informed." - G. K. Chesterton, The Common Man
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otis smith continues to make boneheaded moves
I doubt Howard will stay unless the Management changes. he really likes the city though.
"Wide, girthy. Just like a Rhino. Sometimes my horns are visible."
This is going to get real interesting
I wonder how it will all play out. I still think he probably gets traded, because its a shame to have him walk and they get nothing.
by cavejunctionblazer on Jan 31, 2012 3:34 PM PST up reply actions
Otis Smith should have been fired after the Lewis contract.
or Carter. or at least the new Richardson contract. heck, Chris Duhon is getting overpaid there. and yet he doesn’t even bother to extend his second-best player. dude is a failure of a GM.
"Wide, girthy. Just like a Rhino. Sometimes my horns are visible."
or signing Hughes, or trading for Lue, or getting Hedo's contract back, or actively pursuing skip to m'lou....
man, he’s bad.
dinasour type of guys choir boys
Hedo is playing relatively well
or was.
Richard Anderson was a positive.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Jan 31, 2012 6:08 PM PST up reply actions
are you talking about ryan anderson?
He’s probably their brightest hope outside of Dwight Howard, and he didn’t get an extension from Smith, so that’s just another flop by Otis Smith not locking up their second best player.
"Wide, girthy. Just like a Rhino. Sometimes my horns are visible."
I still consider Anderson a wash, since they gave up C. Lee to get him
Taking on VC should not have required that swap.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
R. Anderson
Yep – that guy.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Jan 31, 2012 8:21 PM PST up reply actions
We could offer all the players we would be renouncing as a part of a sign and trade.
by Oden Mad, Oden Smash! on Jan 31, 2012 3:53 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
The only draw back is that we would get Howard's Bird rights.
Meaning it would take even more space to get both. But maybe that’s what it would take.
"Anybody might guess beforehand that there would be blunders of the ignorant. What nobody could have guessed, what nobody could have dreamed of in a nightmare, what no morbid mortal imagination could ever have dared to imagine, was the mistakes of the well-informed." - G. K. Chesterton, The Common Man
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My take...
If blazers are going to push for these guys… They need to start showing that they want him. The players need to know that " hey Portland wants me and will trade anyone for me." they need to show these players that they are dedicated to brringing the 2 together.
So i say the blazers throw their hats in the ring and try to get trade for one of these guys now. Their best bet would be Dwight cause there’s no way the Nets dumb Dwill. I think The blazers can offer a lot without dealing LMA.
For that caliber of a player, you trade everyone but LMA.
Howard would be your best recruiter to try to get Dwill in the summer.
by Hoi on Jan 31, 2012 3:38 PM PST via mobile reply actions
First we need to get onto "the list"
For now, Howard hasn’t put us on his list of places he would consider a sign-and-trade to. Blazers would need to convince him that a title was likely if he came here. And, without D-Will, I’m not sure he’d see that as likely.
If he really wants to be with Dwill and compete for a championship, would he really chose to do it in Portland over Brooklyn? And for an older geek owner vs. the worlds biggest playboy?
All that glitters isn't chrome
To get your name on the list....
Need to show Alot of interest. If the Blazers plans this summer is to make a big splash in FA…. They need to start to do it before the trade deadline.
Make a push for Dwight. Make a trade or try at the very least. Once the Blazers show interest in Dwight, he will recognize that he is wanted here.
Where Dwight goes… Dwill will follow.
by Hoi on Jan 31, 2012 7:49 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I think just having LMA
Portland is in better shape then the Nets.
If this did work out, the Blazers would be left with a pretty bare cupboard.
PG: D. Will/Nolan Smith
SG: ?
SF: Luke Babbitt
PF: Aldridge
C: Howard/Thomas
Now, options aren’t totally lost. We would still have the 2.5 Million room exception. Any 2nd round picks we accumulated for the 2012 draft (as those contacts aren’t guaranteed, and would be the same price as the cap hold anyways). Might be able to talk Craig Smith back for Vet minimum. And some old guys would probably like to chase a ring.
Williams/N. Smith
Vet Min/2nd round pick
2.5M Room Exception guy/Babbitt
Aldridge/C. Smith
Howard/Thomas
Looks a lot better now.
"Anybody might guess beforehand that there would be blunders of the ignorant. What nobody could have guessed, what nobody could have dreamed of in a nightmare, what no morbid mortal imagination could ever have dared to imagine, was the mistakes of the well-informed." - G. K. Chesterton, The Common Man
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Draft Mike Moser, if he drops to the second round
Have Nate recruit Ray Allen for the $2.5 million Room Exception. BOOM. Done.
I kid. The Heat put together a real nice season last year with a skeleton crew. And unlike the Heat, we’d have all three of the most important positions covered.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
didn't the heat convince their guys to take a small paycut?
though I guess most of our draw is the ability to sign both of these guys to big contracts.
"Wide, girthy. Just like a Rhino. Sometimes my horns are visible."
Yeah, but the pay cuts basically paid for Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem, both of whom missed almost all of the season
and, in Miller’s case, was unproductive when he did play.
It’d be really easy to fill out the rest of that rotation with cheap shooters.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
Hey, if they're up for a cut, we could keep Matthews.
I wouldn’t complain about that.
"Anybody might guess beforehand that there would be blunders of the ignorant. What nobody could have guessed, what nobody could have dreamed of in a nightmare, what no morbid mortal imagination could ever have dared to imagine, was the mistakes of the well-informed." - G. K. Chesterton, The Common Man
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Well the paycut...
that we would ask them to take would be significantly less, due to the fact that Miami had no state income tax. People forget that.
We need to keep Batum around.
I would argue that great 2s and 3s are harder to find than 4s
But, I agree that we’d have the two most important positions locked down at 1 and 5.
"...it was like he brought his own personal cross-wind to the arena." - Dave
I think 4 is a more important position, though. Rarity is irrelevant.
especially when you have a star caliber PG. Spot shooters and defenders will do there. The 4 needs to be more dynamic, preferably be able to score down low and spread the floor a little, and at least be a semi-competent rebounder/defender. For example, you could probably start James Jones and Tony Allen on the wings of a title contender with enough talent at the 1, 4, and 5. It’s harder to build around wings, unless you’ve got Pippen and Jordan or Wade and James.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
And the null hypothesis?
PG: Smith
SG: Williams
SF: Babbitt 1st rounder
PF: Aldridge
C: Thomas
And no bench….
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Jan 31, 2012 6:05 PM PST up reply actions
Wait
scratch the 1st rounder and reinsert Babbitt.
Nasty.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Jan 31, 2012 6:06 PM PST up reply actions
Well, even that'd put us about $25 million below the minimum salary req.
So we’d have a lot of room to play with. You could build an entire roster out of solid RFA’s this season with enough capspace. Worst case scenario, we take back bad salaries in exchange for high draft picks.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
to start out
dwill/nsmith
ewill/Terrence Ross(first rounder)
?/babbitt/?(oh my)
Aldridge/csmith
dhoward/kthomas
Need to convince him to catch a UW game and he will like him.
but then he might end up liking Wroten which would be no bueno
by FPS NorthWest on Jan 31, 2012 7:40 PM PST up reply actions
I go to Arizona and I saw him murder us last weekend
He looks like he can be a great player in the NBA, unlike most of the disappointments on my school’s team right now
"Wide, girthy. Just like a Rhino. Sometimes my horns are visible."
He is one of the few talents I'd consider trading up in the draft for.
"We gotta get this $#!^ together guys!" - Phil
And Kidd-Gilchirst
but as it stands he is well out of out range
by FPS NorthWest on Feb 1, 2012 8:18 AM PST up reply actions
Unless you think someone wants Babbitt instead.
I’d gladly take that instead.
"Anybody might guess beforehand that there would be blunders of the ignorant. What nobody could have guessed, what nobody could have dreamed of in a nightmare, what no morbid mortal imagination could ever have dared to imagine, was the mistakes of the well-informed." - G. K. Chesterton, The Common Man
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If Aldridge makes the Olympic team this summer with DWill and D12, I say our chances at this triple...
From 5% to 15%. But, I would be in favor of it regardless.
Batum Shakalaka
Look the Problem still exists that small market teams cant compete by getting big free agents.
Because they do not want to come here. While I wish for a Howard or D-will, the fact is neither of them want to come here. Blazers are better off getting what they can and drafting the best they can, and hoping it pans out.
The only way I see Blazers getting a big name is Aldridge doing some major marketing and making some good relationships with the Big name stars.
Keep in mind that there are plenty of teams with cap space to afford Howard and D-will just like the Blazers.
Hm
Keep in mind that there are plenty of teams with cap space to afford Howard and D-will just like the Blazers.
If your read the original post by the author(one of the mods here at BlazersEdge), he clearly lines out that the Blazers perhaps present the most attractive landing spots in terms of remaining talent for a “Big 2” to be a brought to(Coming to Aldridge, like Wade was the key last year).
"We gotta get this $#!^ together guys!" - Phil
Wade is no comparison to Aldridge
Just as Miami is no comparison to Portland.
Miami has no income tax. It has Larry Brown.
The last big name that came to Portland in FA is probably Strickland.
And there are several other places just as attractive. New Jersey, Indiana, Boston, Dallas, Houston. What does Portland have that other teams don’t?
New Jersey has a new stadium more revenue, Deron is already there.
Indiana has young pieces, Hibbert, Grange
Boston: big city, play with rondo, pierce
Dallas: Proven owner, good fan base, Dirk
Portland: Aldridge? No GM! Little endorsements. Less media exposure?
Portland
Billionare owner that is willing to spend, “best fans in the league”, LMA, Nike in town so Dwight can push Adidas to the curb, Coach of the year candidate.
neither one wants to play here!!!!!!! and they have both went on record of saying so!!!!! so we could make an offer true!! but, Howard would be stupid from an endorsement view to come here….its not just about the upfront money
Prove it. Show me some sources that say DWill/Howard said "I do not want to play in Portland"
I mean, Howard has Adidas… Keep in mind that Dwight’s contract with Adidas is also expiring next year.
"We gotta get this $#!^ together guys!" - Phil
They've both listed the teams they're willing to play for
And neither guy has indicated a willingness to play in Portland.
Howard’s preferences are widely known: (Orland), NJ, Dallas, and LAL. Plus he’s said he wants to be in a major market, and a warm one at that. He’s currently being diplomatic about his willingness to potentially play in Chicago or Boston, but note that he’s still not saying he wants to be there or adding them to his list of desired destinations.
I can’t find the article at the moment, but ESPN also had a piece listing William’s desired destinations if NJ can’t secure Howard. He also listed about three teams, including LAL and Dallas, and not Portland.
"...it was like he brought his own personal cross-wind to the arena." - Dave
Williams did not.
That list reeked of NY’s FO and media, hoping to force an Amare for D-Will swap. He had also said the week before that market size didn’t matter, explaining in detail that, while he was enjoying New York, it really doesn’t behoove him as a second-tier star to be in a large market. Then his alleged “list” has only large market teams? I call shenanigans on the media with that one.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
shoe company?
your betting the bank on a shoe endorsement? we would still have the endorsement aloing with 10 others if he signed to Lakers..if you go down that road do the math its an extra 20million in is bank and the fame and weather to go with it!!!:)
Poll is misleading, I think
The risk isn’t dumping Mathews – it’s renouncing everyone else just to have a shot at both players.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
We don't have to renounce everyone until the FA's have agreed to sign
Now, we would have to renounce some of them in order to extend offer sheets to RFA’s.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
Sorry, but Dwight Howard and Deron Williams won't come to podunk Portland.
No shot. For all of its beauty, Portland is still in the NBA backwoods. Sad, but true.
As it is, Portland ought to do with LMA what Utah did with Deron Williams last year.
FROM NEW JERSEY & TO PORTLAND
Memo Okur
Brook Lopez
2012 First-Round Draft Pick
2014 First-Round Draft Pick
2016 First-Round Draft Pick
2018 First-Round Draft Pick
Future Conditional Draft Pick Via Houston (Lotto-Protected First-Rounder From 2012 Thru 2016 Or 2017 Second-Rounder If Not Conveyed By Then)
FROM PORTLAND & TO NEW JERSEY
LaMarcus Aldridge
(Trade Machine)
http://www.blazersedge.com/2012/1/19/2719044/trade-drawer-hypothetical-rebuild
In reality, Portland should abandon perpetual mediocrity — which its cross-country brethren, Atlanta, has fallen victim to in similar fashion to the Trail Blazers — by dismantling the core. As it is, the core = LaMarcus Aldridge.
From there, Paul Allen and co. can then overhaul the Blazer staff — which needs a thorough cleansing from the basketball operations department down to the coaches — and start fresh with a new GM, new head coach, and new talent procured through the draft. While it’ll be a tough 2 to 3 years at the start, things should come together by year 4 — so long as Allen doesn’t screw it up like he did in 2003 when hiring two buffoons in Steve Patterson and John Nash — with the team making strides to contender status by year 5. Staying the course, however, will just bring about never-ending mediocrity throughout the remainder of LMA’s current contract — which expires in 2015 — as well as push back the desperately needed rebuilding process 3 to 4 years down the line.
"I Am Mine"
well, if we can't find contention level pieces in free agency, then we will have dismantled the rest of the roster
we can pretty much start rebuilding from there.
"Wide, girthy. Just like a Rhino. Sometimes my horns are visible."
Right, but a complete dismantling includes moving Aldridge.
With LMA as the team’s #1 option, Portland can theoretically max out like Utah did in 2007, Denver did in 2009, and Phoenix did in 2010. A low ceiling of a potential conference finals appearance isn’t enough to justify keeping him around for a rebuild, particularly when him staying would prevent bottoming out for a season or two to secure a high draft pick who’d be a building block for the future.
"I Am Mine"
I think we could build a pretty crappy team around Aldridge...
Look at what NJ has done with Deron Williams, and they aren’t even trying to suck.
We might not be Washington, Charlotte, or Sacto bad, but we can be pretty dang terrible.
Even with the top picks, we’re not guaranteed to get a building block. Heck, three years ago we had three guys you were supposed to be able to build around, and we ended up with one.
Mediocrity may suck, but trading LMA puts us at risk of prolonged crappiness, which is way worse.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
by HailOden! on Jan 31, 2012 7:41 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
exactly what I was about to say. especially since AK insists that LMA is on a lower level than a LeBron
which is may be true but I think it’s not that simple of a formula when you talk about championship success.
"Wide, girthy. Just like a Rhino. Sometimes my horns are visible."
Here's the thing, though.
This team has no chance of winning a title with LMA as its #1 option. No chance whatsoever.
A true rebuild will have to happen eventually, regardless of whether it’s in 2012 or 2015. Why, therefore, wait until 2015 to get things underway? That’s just pointless to me. Knowing that a conference finals appearance is the best-case scenario for a LMA led Blazers team — which is akin to Utah in ‘07 w/Boozer & Deron, Denver in ’09 w/Melo, and Phoenix in 2010 w/Amar’e & Nash — wasting four years by retooling around the current core is just dumb.
"I Am Mine"
what I was saying is that since this team would be lottery bad even with LMA
why not keep him for a few years? Unless he requests a trade, he’s an impressive player who’s looking like one of the best power forwards in the league and if it only takes one or two horrible seasons he can contribute a lot once this team gets back on track, much as robinson did after duncan came along.
"Wide, girthy. Just like a Rhino. Sometimes my horns are visible."
The heat had a similar situation in 2008
where they got the second pick in the NBA Draft while they still had Wade healthy for a decent chunk of the year until he finally gave up. Now, if they had picked Russell Westbrook or Kevin Love instead of the giant pile of excrement that is Michael Beasley, that might have been the beginnings of a contender with only one year of horrible basketball suffered through.
"Wide, girthy. Just like a Rhino. Sometimes my horns are visible."
No, the Miami Heat didn't have a similar situation.
LaMarcus Aldridge isn’t Dwyane Wade. By 2008, a prime Wade had a NBA Finals victory under his belt and, as a result, he’d established himself as an elite, top-of-the-line superstar. The LMA of today is not the Wade of ’08, okay.
"I Am Mine"
I understand, levels of stardom and such
however the concept remains the same, as in we don’t have to get rid of him to tank, and he is still a very good player that would help us a lot if we got one or two superstar draft picks. I’m not comparing the quality of these players, I’m just using similar situations. Calm down, I’m not saying he is on that level.
"Wide, girthy. Just like a Rhino. Sometimes my horns are visible."
"however the concept remains the same"
And that’s where we differ. As it is, I firmly believe that the concept isn’t the same when the level of player drastically differs from elite, game-changing superstar — such as LBJ or Dwight — to a generic star (i.e., LMA/Amar’e/Melo/Deron). We obviously disagree on that matter, which obviously won’t change.
"I Am Mine"
LaMarcus Aldridge has never come close to amassing the superb numbers that ...
David Robinson posted in his prime with San Antonio, so I don’t see the comparison at all. If anything, Aldridge carrying the load by himself on a crummy team would most resemble the Toronto Raptors when everything went to pot with Chris Bosh as its #1 option.
"I Am Mine"
Again, you're not addressing the main point,
Which is that we could rebuild while still retaining an all-star caliber player in Aldridge. I’m not arguing that LaMarcus Aldridge is the next David Robinson or another Dwayne Wade. However, LaMarcus Aldridge is LaMarcus Aldridge, rising power forward who is among the top twenty players in the NBA, though plenty of people can debate where. I’m not going to count him out for anything yet, since he’s already proved me wrong once when he took charge of this team.
"Wide, girthy. Just like a Rhino. Sometimes my horns are visible."
the problem with a rebuild around Aldridge
is that we don’t have the pieces to send off for picks, and the draft is the definition of a rebuild.
"If you can do a half-assed job of anything, you're a one-eyed man in a kingdom of the blind."
by thankyouforblaze on Jan 31, 2012 10:51 PM PST up reply actions
i.e. the closest thing we had was
sending Gerald for 4 picks, and that fell through, not to mention the picks would be over like 6 years.
"If you can do a half-assed job of anything, you're a one-eyed man in a kingdom of the blind."
by thankyouforblaze on Jan 31, 2012 10:52 PM PST up reply actions
My point is that retooling around LaMarcus Aldridge would be a waste of ...
time, because there’s no possibility of winning it all with him as the #1 option.
At best, an Aldridge led era would bring about a conference finals appearance — such as Utah in ‘07 w/Boozer & Deron, Denver in ’09 w/Melo, and Phoenix in 2010 w/Amar’e & Nash — while at worst it’d drag on like Chris Bosh’s time in Toronto.
That’d be a fruitless endeavor, no matter how you slice it. Thus, rather than put around ‘til 2015, I say the Blazers should jumpstart the rebuilding process this year. Why wait? Since Portland can not and will not win a title with LMA as a #1 option, Paul Allen and co. shouldn’t waste time dragging their feet through the muddy waters of mediocrity.
"I Am Mine"
my point is that if we rebuild and get a better player through the draft
LaMarcus doesn’t have to be a number one option once we get a superstar draft pick, but he still can be a quality 2nd/3rd option and also a veteran guide to mentor a younger star.
"Wide, girthy. Just like a Rhino. Sometimes my horns are visible."
Getting in a little late here but.....
If we landed a top level player like Howard and we were able to get a player of LaMarcus’s talent, at the contract he is currently on, we would do so in a heartbeat. Why would we trade him?
by JeffePortland on Feb 3, 2012 12:25 PM PST up reply actions
But that true rebuild isn't going to happen anytime soon
You can knock us for dreaming about landing a marquee free agent all you want, but it’s no less fanciful than trading LaMarcus and doing a legit rebuild.
I’m not saying that it’s not worth discussing, as fans. But your original comment essentially appears as an effort to discredit T Darkstar’s proposal as unrealistic, when even you admit that your proposal is unrealistic, and I maintain that it is equally so.
The course ahead is evident, regardless. We’re going to retool on the fly for about 5 years before being back where we were prior to the 2006 draft. All I ask is that when we dreamers come up with our dreams of a “Big 3,” that you would refrain from being so pedantic with an equally fanciful scenario of what we really ought to do, as though we fellow fans don’t actually know what we should even be hoping for.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
"You can knock us for dreaming about landing a marquee free agent all you want, but it’s no less fanciful than trading LaMarcus and doing a legit rebuild."
True, neither one is remotely bound to happen.
In all likelihood, this franchise is destined to suffer through sustained mediocrity from 2012 through 2015. Depressing stuff, eh.
That said, I’ve got one point of contention here. While there’s a 0% chance of Dwight Howard or Deron Williams signing outright with Portland — and I mean zero percent — there’s a sliver of hope that Paul Allen gets his head out of his butt and recognizes that a rebuild is in order. One is impossible, while the other is improbable.
"I Am Mine"
There's always a chance
If Dwight Howard lands in LA, name one team that’s better positioned to sign Deron Williams.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
Honestly, I think that New Jersey still misses the playoffs with both LMA and Deron Williams.
Due to that, Portland would have both its own mid-to-late lotto pick and one from the Nets to use right away in June of 2012. Rebuilding could begin quickly rather than pushing it back, although a huge importance would be put on who the team drafted this summer. Would obviously want to avoid botched picks like what happened in 2004 and 2005, but that shouldn’t be a problem if the front office is staffed with competent people.
"I Am Mine"
the front office isn't staffed with competent people yet
until it is, I’d rather see a fun team on the court than have a horrible team and horrible draft picks.
"Wide, girthy. Just like a Rhino. Sometimes my horns are visible."
Also, in the east, it looks like the nets might even make it with just deron and garbage,
Deron and LaMarcus would easily make the playoffs unless multiple bottom-feeders suddenly become good
"Wide, girthy. Just like a Rhino. Sometimes my horns are visible."
And that's fine.
I, on the other hand, am not satisfied by above average, yet fatally flawed play. Sorry, but it doesn’t bring me fulfillment.
Therein lies the difference.
"I Am Mine"
I'm not fully satisfied with mediocrity
but I prefer it to having an inept front office try to rebuild and fail miserably at it, which will probably just lead to more botched draft picks, the arenas slowly clearing out, and paul allen finally just selling the team.
actually that might not be to horrible if we can get a better owner. but it’s much too risky that some schmuck will buy our team to move it to seattle or something,
"Wide, girthy. Just like a Rhino. Sometimes my horns are visible."
actually the schmuck we already have probably wants to move it to seattle
"Wide, girthy. Just like a Rhino. Sometimes my horns are visible."
Why's that?
Past issues with Rose Garden lease notwithstanding, I assume Paul Allen is content with the City of Portland. Since he’s stuck there through 2025, he may as well be at peace with it.
"I Am Mine"
He seems to have a little obsession with getting seattle products
McMillan, Webster, Roy, Jamal Chuckford.
"Wide, girthy. Just like a Rhino. Sometimes my horns are visible."
You're responding to my comment, but not addressing the argument I made therein.
It’s better to tank with Aldridge and hope to land one building block in the draft than to tank without Aldridge and hope to land two, while more realistically ending up like the 2001-06 Blazers or the 2001-current Milwaukee Bucks.
“…[O]bviously want to avoid botched picks…” No, really? Gee, all these trades and free agency signings and THAT’S all it takes to build a contender! Who knew?!
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
That's doomed to fail. 100% doomed.
By keeping LMA through the remainder of his contract, Portland probably won’t drop down enough to secure a high draft pick. He’ll keep them steadily afloat ’til 2015, which is when the Blazers will have their hand forced into rebuilding once he heads home to Dallas — or wherever else he may go — as a free agent.
Rather than four years of above average play that ends in season after season of playoff exits, let’s instead gut the roster now, initiate the rebuilding process — which must come at some point — and aim for a title four or five years from now versus a decade down the line.
"I Am Mine"
Only two teams in recent history have enjoyed any measure of success using this method, and only one has won any titles
Rather than four years of above average play that ends in season after season of playoff exits, let’s instead gut the roster now, initiate the rebuilding process — which must come at some point — and aim for a title four or five years from now versus a decade down the line.
Funny, because you could have said the same thing about LA before the last 2 titles, Boston before the Allen and Garnett trades, Miami before the Shaq trade and the 2010 signings, Dallas before the Chandler trade, and Detroit before the Wallace trade. Now, I realize we are not LA or Boston, but surely we can assemble a roster comparable to that of Detroit or Dallas.
The only champion in the handcheck-era that never really went through that period was San Antonio. While I love the way that team operates, there is no guarantee of drafting a Tim Duncan caliber player (even with a #1 pick), slim chance of a Tony Parker in the 20’s, and almost no chance of a Manu Ginobili in the second round. Without the relative lack of international scouting at the time their secondary stars were drafted, there is no way the Spurs model produces 3 titles in the Duncan era.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
by HailOden! on Feb 1, 2012 10:30 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
What makes you think
Would obviously want to avoid botched picks like what happened in 2004 and 2005, but that shouldn’t be a problem if the front office is staffed with competent people.
We are going to hire a competent GM? Like many have said, I’d rather have an Aldridge based rebuild & if we did trade Aldridge we would likely be worse off then we ever were due to lack of GM talent.
"We gotta get this $#!^ together guys!" - Phil
Staffing the front office with competent people is a must, yes.
And yeah, the hope is Paul Allen doesn’t mess up the hiring process like he did in 2003.
"I Am Mine"
Trade Aldridge to gamble on the next Aldridge?
No thanks.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
by blacknoiseNW on Jan 31, 2012 8:17 PM PST up reply actions
Enjoy mediocrity, all right.
That’s clearly the end game, so I’ve got nothing else. If mediocrity satisfies y’all, then so be it.
There’s nothing more to say.
"I Am Mine"
Rather than acuse people of endorsing mediocrity
Would be better to come up with an outstanding plan.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
There is no "outstanding plan."
I’m not some snake oil salesman like Tony Robbins, who’ll get up on a stage and feed you a bunch a verbal sewage whilst happily taking your money in the process.
Look, Portland’s best chance at winning a championship is through the dismantle and rebuild method. It can be painful, yeah. I get that. Yet, it’s still the most realistic way to win a title by the end of the 2010s.
Retooling around LMA, however, won’t get Portland a championship in the next four years. At best, it’ll lead to a conference finals run. Whether it’s in 2012 or 2015, LMA will leave Portland without a ring.
"I Am Mine"
Pure conjecture.
Retooling around LMA, however, won’t get Portland a championship in the next four years. At best, it’ll lead to a conference finals run. Whether it’s in 2012 or 2015, LMA will leave Portland without a ring.
How many games has Aldridge had a chance to play next to a good defensive center? An aging Camby, sure but he would be best served coming off the bench behind a good starter. Greg Oden? Can’t stay on the court. I want to see good pieces around Aldridge before I call it quits on him as a #1 option. Like I said, if we traded Aldridge we would likely be hard pressed to draft a superior player to him! Particularly with our draft history. I fully believe that a LaMarcus Aldridge + Gerald Wallace core, in addition to a good point guard & center, can compete for a championship for the remainder of Aldridge’s contract.
As for Aldridge leaving, if we did make it to a conference finals I do believe he would resign(Not to mention a new CBA will be up for renewal & could bring in a franchise player clause). Especially after the overwhelming support this city has shown for its gone-to-early franchise player, Brandon Roy.
"We gotta get this $#!^ together guys!" - Phil
Rebuild with LaMarcus not around LaMarcus.
What is wrong with that?
by JeffePortland on Feb 3, 2012 12:31 PM PST up reply actions
"Rather than acuse people of endorsing mediocrity"
True, it’s somewhat inflammatory by me. I’m guilty of that.
Yet, that doesn’t alter my unwavering pro-rebuild position.
"I Am Mine"
I'm not endorsing mediocrity
blacknoise and I are endorsing building around a known quantity.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
This is kind of where I'm at
LMA is a top 10 PER 7 footer with a decent, evolving post game and a sweet high release jump shot…and he plays both ways.
I don’t see the point at scoffing at a possible Western conference championship run with LMA and then setting up blowup and rebuilding as the preferable alternative and suggesting that it has a greater shot at giving us a championship in the next 8 years. Just like that, huh? I must have a different estimation of how hard it would be to build a championship team from scratch out of the draft (since the argument appears to be that we ain’t getting no championship level #1 options via free agency).
That sounds REALLY hard. What if our #1 option pick turns out to be just another LMA or worse, which seems as likely as not? What if a couple of our other draft picks don’t pan out perfectly? Do you jettison them and start over again? How good does your #1 option have to be before you stop firing everybody and starting over? What if my whole life goes by while we churn through rebuilding efforts, one after the other after the other?
That's a simple-minded reply and you know it.
If you don’t know it, then I don’t know what to say.
Well, I would know what to say. It wouldn’t be very nice, though.
"I Am Mine"
What I do know is that proposal is silly
silly < simple
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
Simple, silly, whatever.
I won’t argue the semantics.
Rebuilding, however, is at least feasible — no matter how unlikely and improbable it is to expect Paul Allen to do it — whereas the original proposal (i.e., obtaining Dwight Howard and Deron Williams) is a pie in the sky pipe dream with no chance at all of occurring due to an abundance of reasons.
Y’see, improbable > impossible.
Admittedly, though, the most likely outcome here is sustained mediocrity with LMA as the team’s #1 option. Once his contract is up in 2015, he’ll leave via free agency like Bosh in Toronto — or, perhaps, be dealt elsewhere first like Utah did Deron Williams, Denver did Melo, and Phoenix did Amar’e — and then the rebuilding process will start four years late.
"I Am Mine"
The plan you propose doesn't return players like it did for Utah and Denver
Those teams aren’t rebuilding through the draft – with picks spread out over six seasons. Utah and Denver obtained players that are helping now – immediate improvement by cashing in one great player for multiple good players and some outstanding prospects.
Okur and Lopez do not meet the standard of Utah and Denver’s returns – they won’t make Portland better right now. That plan gets all its value from the multiple draft picks – which is at best a long term gamble that a player of Aldridge’s caliber will be drafted with one of those picks and then will develop into a player of Aldridge’s caliber.
Rebuilding is one thing. Blowing it up and taking 10 years for a bunch of draft picks to pan out is another.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
That's a good point, even if one endorses AK's grand strategy
A more comparable trade would be sending Aldridge out for Eric Gordon, Chris Kaman, and both Nola’s own first rounder and Minnesota’s.
But there aren’t really any teams that have both the assets we would want AND the need for a player like Aldridge. Anyone who has those assets (Nola, Detroit, Utah, Philly, Indy) is undergoing their own youth movement.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
There's a big difference between a simple distinction
and a simple-minded response. Syllogisms are simple. That does not make them simple-minded arguments.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
Barf.
No thanks.
This is why I love DarkStar’s post. Optimism FTW !
"We gotta get this $#!^ together guys!" - Phil
But where does optimsim get you?
Is false hope what keeps some people chugging along? Maybe so, I dunno. All I know is that I don’t find it palatable; rather, it makes my stomach churn in disgust. Apparently, I just don’t care for the saccharine sweet flavor of blind, unbridled optimism.
"I Am Mine"
I don't understand why you don't want to take a chance
It took us a while to get back to this point, and a full rebuild might take twice as long or more if we don’t get incredibly lucky like 2006. Why not try this, and if it doesn’t work then fill the roster with short contracts, trade LMA like you say, and opt for the rebuild. Either way, it’s low risk.
by Batumshakalaka on Feb 1, 2012 9:53 AM PST up reply actions
You'd be surprised how lovely it can be..
I am a fan who visits this website & occaisionally put on the GM hat for fun. However, I know that I have no control over the management decisions so I’m not going be so damn cynical like yourself. In fact when you have some optimism it makes being a fan much more fun.
"We gotta get this $#!^ together guys!" - Phil
by 420Phenom on Feb 1, 2012 1:23 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
No, well said = the following adage:
“Life sucks, then you die.”
Though, I’d like to change it up a bit. Give it a new twist.
Here’s the new saying:
Life sucks, sucks some more, continues to suck, sucks even worse, and then you die.
Oh, there’s even a point near the end where life sucks so much that your mind turns to mush and you don’t even realize what the word sucks means.
"I Am Mine"
I prefer
“life is what you make of it” Cause my life has been more awesome then sucking. But I’m a pretty optimistic person.
I approve.
Bold moves are needed with this team. It’s not like this team is going anywhere as currently constructed. Better to swing for the fences rather than do something like trade for Okafor which is short-sighted, still doesn’t make us a contender, and kill our cap space.
Besides, it wouldn’t be the worst thing to strike out, with all that cap room to play with. Of course, what I’d suggest is to bottom out and rebuild instead of paying big money to non-stars if we don’t get guys like Howard and Williams. Use the cap space to absorb contracts and picks, instead.
The worst thing would be to keep the team as-is.
The cake was a lie.
It would be about the dumbest thing ever
To give up our WHOLE TEAM for two guys that are not going to sign with us
La Illaha Illallah Muhamadur Rasulallah
Why not try both?
We can try to swing for the fences (Howard & DWill) if that fails, your trade with Jersey we only are giving up LA anyway.
Loud pipes save lives!
Bad knees break hearts!
Time for an exorcism.
Never mind Okur would be gone & then yours doesn't work.
Loud pipes save lives!
Bad knees break hearts!
Time for an exorcism.
He could still be traded for capspace and picks.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
No he cant you have to have returning salary
Loud pipes save lives!
Bad knees break hearts!
Time for an exorcism.
Not if they're under the cap
See Okur, Mehmet; Chandler, Tyson; Boozer, Carlos; James, LeBron; Bosh, Chris…I can keep going, if you want.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
But they are over the cap.
When Memo comes off they might fall under but not enough to take on LA’s salary. If DWill opts out also maybe, probably. I have to check.
Loud pipes save lives!
Bad knees break hearts!
Time for an exorcism.
Most of those were FA's not trades
Loud pipes save lives!
Bad knees break hearts!
Time for an exorcism.
All the one's I listed, besides Memo, were S&T's
NJ’s got about $35 million committed, so if they could take him back if we went that hybrid route. Plus, there will be a lot of teams with the room that I’m sure would love to get him for a bundle of picks and cheap guys.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
What did Dallas get for Chandler? What did Cleveland get for LaBron?What did Utah get for Boozer? What did Toronto get for Bosh?
If I have not totally lost my memory they were all UFA’S
Loud pipes save lives!
Bad knees break hearts!
Time for an exorcism.
Dallas got a TPE that netted them Lamar Odom, which seemed like a good idea at the time
Cleveland did get Miami’s 2013 first rounder and a TPE for James, Toronto got their 2011 first (which they traded to Chicago for James Johnson) and a TPE, which they used to acquire Peja and Bayless. Utah got a TPE which they used to acquire Al Jefferson, and I believe they may have received some second round picks, but don’t quote me on that.
But yes, they were all UFA’s. Nevertheless, they were signed by the team that held their Bird rights and traded to their new teams, technically.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
Truth be told, neither a true rebuild nor a miracle Dwight Howard signing will happen in Portland.
After the verbal tug-o’-war over the past couple days — in which I got way too harsh, sorry — I’ve now concluded that the Blazers and its fans might as well stay the course with a minor trade or two. Then see how it goes this postseason. Since it seems winning a round or two in the playoffs would put a smile on some people’s faces, then maybe that’s enough. It wouldn’t satisfy me, but I’m an outsider and isn’t about what I think. Nope, it’s about what you guys want.
"I Am Mine"
I think everyboby here wants a championship as bad as you would.
I think we just disagree about what it will take to get there. I keep hearing that LA is at best a #2 option but he has been our #1 all year facing almost constant double teams & yet he has a top 10 PER higher then Wade, Higher then Bosh. Portland fans are always accused of overvaluing our talent yet it almost seems to me that some are undervaluing LA. If there was a dynamic PG who could hit the 3 & keep the other team honest. I think it makes LA that much more of a threat. Forget PGOTF we need the PG of now. To me the best fit is still Stephen Curry the ? is can our non GM get this done? Sadly probably not.
Loud pipes save lives!
Bad knees break hearts!
Time for an exorcism.
by We-B-Dunkin on Feb 2, 2012 9:58 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Do I think getting Steve Nash or Steph Curry would make Portland a more formidable foe?
Yes, most definitely. Even so, I doubt that either one of them would be enough to get Portland beyond a token WCF appearance. It’ll take more than that to jump over the final hurdles. That NBA Finals peak is no easy climb, y’know.
"I Am Mine"
This would be a game-changer, for sure.
I just don’t support this Big 3 movement. I’d rather have a deep team that doesn’t hemorrhage points when the starters sit.
Anyway, I’m betting Howard goes to LAL this summer. It just seems like the proper (but very painful) fit.
Doers & Makers > Movers & Shakers
I hope he goes to NJ and NJ continues to stink it up with him and DWill
and no one else.
"If you can do a half-assed job of anything, you're a one-eyed man in a kingdom of the blind."
by thankyouforblaze on Jan 31, 2012 9:06 PM PST up reply actions
teach me how to dougie.
superstar pg: john wall
trade: http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=7p46jwf
Keep it in [one of] the trade drawer[s].
This is more FA strategy.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
“But is it all really worth the risk? Players like Matthews aren’t exactly rare, but they don’t grow on trees either.
I’d like to think that having 8-10 good players is better than having 2-3 all stars. But Miami has proven otherwise. So if you can try the Miami strategy I think you have to go for it.
The downside is: What if your equivalent to Dwayne Wade or LeBron gets a Brandon Roy type injury. Then you become a mediocre team. Blazers can have a happy fan base even as a mediocre team if they have a bunch of guys everyone loves like Batum, Matthews, and Crawford. But fans might turn on the team if all they are is a couple of prima donnas and a bunch of bench warmers. (in other words, if they have a Miami style team but don’t perform as well as Miami.)
Not realistic. Batum will get an $7M-8M offer sheet day 1 while Howard struts around for weeks
like Lebron feeling the NBA love. Then what are you going to do? Let Batum go while you wait for Howard to play The Decision II. And Deron isn’t a puppy dog like Bosh was, and won’t wait to just tag along. He’s going to be looking for his own deal.
So besides the fact that Howard isn’t coming to the Portland’s night-life mega-center, the timing won’t work.
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Feb 1, 2012 12:35 PM PST reply actions
7 days to match RFA offer helps
"Say his NAME, Portland. Gerald Wallace is...awesome." -Dave, 4/9/11
I think there is a misreading of Storytellers numbers
According to Storyteller, on July 1st, 2012, we will have $43,179,781 tied up in salary and cap holds. Plus around $1.5 million (+/-) for our 1st rounder. … That means without signing Batum, Oden, any kind of PG or Center, or have more than 9 players on the roster, we will be about $14 million under the cap.
The column you are reading in Storytellers numbers does NOT include the cap holds on free agents. For instance, the cap hold on Felton adds an additional $9.8M (he’s a Early Bird Free Agent so the cap hold is 1.3*prior salary). When you add in the cap holds of all the free agents (Camby, Felton, et. al.) we will be WAY over the salary cap, not $14M under the cap. The point is that we won’t have cap space to sign any free agents unless we renounce most of our free agents if we sign other free agents.
You plan assumes that we renounce nearly all of our free agents, so that is unaffected. But I wanted to clear up the misconception that we will have cap space to sign a free agent if we do nothing.
If we match a Batum RFA offer sheet of say $8M in the first few days of free agency (which is what I think will happen) we will then have a team salary of $34.6M plus a $2.4M hold (for having a minimum of 13 players) + $1.5M(or so) for a first round pick. That totals $38.4M, leaving us less than $20M under the cap if Wallace and Crawford opt out as expected and IF we renounce our free agents. So at best we could sign one max free agent to replace Camby+Felton+Wallace+Crawford, or sign a combination of less expensive free agents and bring over Freeland. Of course there are lots of other possibilities, like staying over the cap and resigning some of our own free agents (to perhaps trade later) but then using the MLE to bring over Freeland, and so forth. It’s going to be very complicated this summer.
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Feb 1, 2012 2:08 PM PST reply actions
I believe
You plan assumes that we renounce nearly all of our free agents, so that is unaffected. But I wanted to clear up the misconception that we will have cap space to sign a free agent if we do nothing.
that what Darkstar was saying is if Howard/DWill did magically agree to sign here that we wouldn’t have to renounce the other FA rights until they were on board with it.
"We gotta get this $#!^ together guys!" - Phil
I understand that. But I wanted to make clear we couldn't stand pat and have $14M to spend
and then resign our own free agents using Bird Rights, Early Bird Rights, etc.
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Feb 1, 2012 2:13 PM PST up reply actions
I think that was pretty well understood by everyone
Darkstar mentioned it, and a couple people asked about it above, where it was clarified.
Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!
Actually I think very few people understand how free agent cap holds work.
That’s why there are questions related to it in so many threads. Another common misconception is that many people think you can get under the cap and use cap space, and then also use the MLE in the same year. Which of course, isn’t true.
"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)
by BlazerFanSince1970 on Feb 1, 2012 10:42 PM PST up reply actions
Here is a plan
since Howard/DWill is not likely like everyone has said, go after Roy Hibbert & Steve Nash. If we land Nash this season & make a conference final, I could see him resigning with us. As for Hibbert he has stated he wants to win, over everything else. So, if we were to make a conference final(or better) we would be one of the 8 best teams in the NBA. Renounce all the rights we have to etc & sign him to a big offer. I truly believe that Hibbert + Nash in addition to Aldridge + Wallace would be able to compete for a championship until Nash retires. Then solve the PG problem when it arises at that time.
"We gotta get this $#!^ together guys!" - Phil
heres an Idea
lets trade Aldridge and the next best 3 players for a few second round draft picks, then the following yr put the draft picks into the D league or just cut them….lets focus on something that our front office can handle guys!!
I was on this train before the season started!
The team would only free up that much cap space if they were reasonably confident they could sign Dwight Howard AND Deron Williams at what I can only assume would be slightly less than full max deals. Obviously the chances of that happening are about as good as winning the lottery while being struck by lightning, but it’s fun to dream.
http://www.blazersedge.com/2011/12/20/2649836/hollinger-blazers-are-standard-one-and-done-playoff-outfit#86397399
Another strategy (which I’ve been advocating for a while now) is to make a run at either Williams or Howard should they remain free agents this off season. Or, for the risky types, make a run at both. I forget the exact math on it at the moment, but clearing everyone off the books (Felton, Camby, Oden gone; Wallace opts out; no new contract for Batum) opens up ~33 million if the cap is at 60 million next season. Convince them both to take less then the max a la Miami and you’ve got yourself a contender.
http://www.blazersedge.com/2012/1/22/2724671/1-22-12-blow-up-the-roster-trade-editon#89618503
#7
Forget Dwight thats a pipe dream . Hes too caught up in his own media hype to waste time on
We could probably pry Deron away from the Nets for Felton and Nic + filler
Id then also try and pry Bulls center Asik and Korver+(maybe the bulls pick) away for Wes and Johnson
Camby/Asik
LA/Thomas
Crash/Korver/babbit
Crawford/elliot
Deron/Nolan
We get a big physical center who can split time with Marcus and then take over when hes done . A deadeye shooter with a nice contract and who comes of the bench but also knows Deron
We give Felton and Nic to NJ plus maybe a first rd pick or even two with the expectation that Elliot and Babbit would get long looks in the rotation during our playoff run in case Crash and Crawford decide to opt out . If they do fine we get cap space and can chase the top wings on the market if they dont we roll with them one more year because in 2013 the top wings possibly on the market are
Josh Smith
Derozan restricted
Paul George
Iggy and Monta have player options
Tyreke Evans restricted
Harden restricted
Kevin Martin
Gary neal
If we could grab Deron NOW we are contenders with extreme flexibility
no chance on Howard.
He lives for adoration and attention. Would put a small wager down he ends up in LA.
Well if he loves attention
The best fan base in the league and a small town guarantees him happy in Portland.
I think they meant
national attention and adoration.
If he came here over LA or New York he would lose tens of millions of dollars in endorsements over the life of his next contract too.
Come on, let's all hug it out.
by Hipster Olympic Team! on Feb 6, 2012 10:06 AM PST up reply actions
I love Wes...
but you made me drool a little too much
Its going to happen
I say do this at the deadline
Portland gets: Brooks, Okur, NJ 2012 First-Round Draft Pick,
New Jersey gets: Howard, Draft picks from PDX and Orlando, Cash
Orlando gets: Wallace, Lopez,NJ 2014 First-Round Draft Pick
We will never get Howard, or Williams but we can allways get young prospects, and draft picks.
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=7f3yo3n
For right now our line-up would be
PG. Felton, Crawford
SG. Matthews, Brooks, Williams
SF. Batum, Williams
PF Aldridge, Rhino
C. Camby, Thomas, Johnson
The NBA trade dead line is March 15 by then the season will be 3/4 done.
Then Nets currently stand with a 8-17 record I predict they will end with a record of around 25-41 with Howard good for around a top 7 pick for the Blazers.
We would draft a stud, then sign a F/A like Roy Hibbert, or Gordon Etc.
I like how some of the trade ideas...
ridicule the idea of getting Howard or DWill and then include Felton, Crawford and Wallace in their Blazer teams. They are all expected to be ‘in play’. We could get some mix of them or none of them. There aren’t any guarantees and you can’t include them on your roster, you can only put them on the board to ‘go after’.
The point of this article is to point out that there is a realistic scenario that it’s possible to get both. If you were my GM and you said ‘Hey, I could get you Okur’ when Dwight Howard is available, and we could make room; Your Fired!
Ha Ha Ha you make me laugh
If you honestly think Howard is coming to the PDX
But ok
Get it done: http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=7q2uqvz
by BestBlazerFan on Feb 5, 2012 9:20 PM PST up reply actions
If Howard and Deron REALLY want to win titles,
Lamarcus is a pretty good player to bring out the best in their respective games.
That trio would dominate.
Too bad life isn’t a video game.;)
Come on, let's all hug it out.
by Hipster Olympic Team! on Feb 6, 2012 10:04 AM PST reply actions
Athletes of Howard's status are their own brand.
They’re not just entertainers any more. These select few individuals like Howard (Lebron, Wade, Kobe, KG) are their own company. As such, Howard stands to lose millions and millions of endorsement dollars by going to a teeny market like Portland or Indy. People with money really, really enjoy making more money. This is an irrefutable fact.
Come on, let's all hug it out.
by Hipster Olympic Team! on Feb 6, 2012 10:11 AM PST reply actions
I enjoy refuting irrefutable facts...
Besides, that’s a generality. Of course people who make money really, really enjoy making more money. But lots of things cause people not to do it. I could have made more money by buying Microsoft but I decided not to for personal reasons. I didn’t want to move to Seattle for one thing. Plus I didn’t want to indirectly hurt the Blazers by running the company into the ground and affecting Paul Allens cash flow.

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