Pelton: Portland's Place In West Not Yet Clear

Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus analyzes the highs and lows of the Portland Trail Blazers' first month and concludes that it's still too early to predict where the team fits into the wide open Western Conference.
-----------------------------------
Right now, the assessment of Portland should be little different than it was when the team was 7-2, or 9-7. The Blazers haven't distinguished themselves from the pack of contenders in the Western Conference. The only team clearly better than Portland is Oklahoma City, which was the preseason favorite in the West and leads the conference currently. It's equally difficult to find teams in the West's top 10 that the Blazers are clearly better than. Though their +3.9 schedule-adjusted differential ranks third in the conference, trailing the Denver Nuggets (+5.9) and the Thunder (+5.4), five other teams rate as +2.0 or better, putting them well within striking distance.

Expect plenty more ups and downs before the West truly shakes out.
-----------------------------------

-- Ben Golliver | benjamin.golliver@gmail.com | Twitter

4 months ago Ben Golliver 39 comments 0 recs |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

sounds about right

I don’t concede that any team other than OKC is definitively better than us (in the WC)

"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'

by sammymohawk on Jan 25, 2012 11:11 AM PST reply actions

Um...

“The only team clearly better than Portland is Oklahoma City, which was the preseason favorite in the West and leads the conference currently.”

You mean the team that we BEAT ON THEIR HOME COURT???

we can still win........

by RastaMonsta on Jan 25, 2012 11:12 AM PST reply actions

Are you trying to argue

that there is a better team then OKC in the west? Or that we are the best team in the west?

by AR-15 on Jan 25, 2012 11:15 AM PST up reply actions

I'm glad we've shown the ability to match-up well and beat them on their home court

but it’s hard to argue with their 14-3 record. They look rock solid compared to the rest of the West, where issues abound for most teams.

"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'

by sammymohawk on Jan 25, 2012 11:20 AM PST up reply actions

yeah this

I think we match up well with them so it will usually be a good game. They win consistently though and we’re a bit up and down still.

by poorwebguy on Jan 25, 2012 11:56 AM PST up reply actions

agreed completely

and that works out well for us, if we have to go through them in the playoffs (say they’re 1 seed and we’re 4 or 5)

"Say his NAME, Portland. Gerald Wallace is...awesome." -Dave, 4/9/11

by austinpwnz on Jan 25, 2012 12:09 PM PST up reply actions

that's what's funny to me about people saying

“even if we get out of the first round, we’re certainly done in the second”…is the second round not just another 7 game series with a team that may or may not be a better matchup for us than what we faced in the first round (that we hypothetically prevailed over)? One game at a time, one matchup at a time.

"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'

by sammymohawk on Jan 25, 2012 12:15 PM PST up reply actions

yep

Suns made the WCF with run and gun and Steve Nash defense at point. Mavs won the title when they were supposed to get knocked out of the playoffs in the first or second round. Spurs choked in the first round to an upstart team. Lakers got swept in the 2nd round by the Mavs their fans kept calling chokers…heh

Almost anything is possible. If we matched up with OKC in the playoffs and actually beat them we’d probably go all the way to the finals.

by poorwebguy on Jan 25, 2012 12:26 PM PST up reply actions

That was a great win

but I’m pretty sure OKC hasn’t lost to Detroit. Lets not get ahead of ourselves.

Hot sauce in my bag.

by JmarcL4 on Jan 25, 2012 11:52 AM PST up reply actions

One of their 3 losses is to Washington

by poorwebguy on Jan 25, 2012 11:53 AM PST up reply actions

I'd rather lose

to Detroit than Andray Blatche.

Johnson, Johnson, Smith, Smith, Thomas, Williams, and Babbitt: the Blazer's law firm.

by Doctor Worm on Jan 25, 2012 12:23 PM PST up reply actions

agreed

by poorwebguy on Jan 25, 2012 12:27 PM PST up reply actions

As others are saying

I think that OKC is clearly the favorite to finish with the best record in the west. That said, I think the Blazers match up very favorably with that squad, with the ability to put multiple perimeter defenders on the floor at the same time to deal with the two-headed monster of Durant and Westbrook. Additionally, the Thunder are not overwhelmingly strong at the position that kills the Blazers – efficient post scoring.

"If you type two spaces after a period, you're doing it wrong."

by joelor on Jan 25, 2012 12:05 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

Isn't it beautiful?

With all due respect to Kevin Peltons well thought out P.O.V.. I think most of the pundit speculation borders on hillarious.

Before the season? The Blazers generally fly under the radar. With expectations kept low due to the news of Brandons retirement and Odens continued struggles.

The Season starts? The Blazers win a few? Suddenly…The Blazer appear on the radar. Suprise team…keep an eye on them…blah, blah, blah….

We lose a few? Uh oh? The Blazers are done…it’s all over…

We win a few? It’s unclear what The Blazers place in the West is….

Sure it’s unclear, sure it’s too early to predict. I don’t want to deal with that real of a assesment.

Before the playoffs got underway last season? I didn’t hear a lot pundits proclaming it was going to be Dallas’s year….

So basically? Moral of the story? Unless your team has LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh…it’s always going to be unclear and if not early…hard to predict.

So just keep the pendelum swinging. The Blazers “right now” have won two games in a row…that should be swinging us towards unbridled optimism tempered by subconcious fear.

"Mother Nature started this fight, I think it's about time we ended it!"

by Krang on Jan 25, 2012 12:12 PM PST reply actions 2 recs

This also probably applies to much of the fanbase

lose and get scared or win and celebrate

The tensions are so high because the stakes are so low!

by tylercomp on Jan 25, 2012 12:58 PM PST up reply actions

Definitely

watching the mood swings around this place is hilarious!!!

by Vorlauf on Jan 25, 2012 1:20 PM PST up reply actions

it applies to the whole sports world

perspective is rare and knee jerk reactions/short term memories are abundant.

"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'

by sammymohawk on Jan 25, 2012 1:35 PM PST up reply actions

Honestly, I think Krang is projecting the fanbase

onto the media here. I don’t remember reading any major media members suggesting the Blazers had no shot at anything when we were slumping, just that the idea that we were a one of the West favorites was clearly not true.

All in all, outside of our hot start and the brief bandwagoning there, it seems like the perception of the Blazers in the media has held pretty stable as a mid-tier playoff team in the West. Our exact location in the rankings has fluctuated a lot, but that seems more dependent on the fact that tons of teams are roughly at our level than a result of wild expectation swings for us.

by Royster on Jan 25, 2012 2:22 PM PST up reply actions

Wish I could say I wasn't ever guilty...

Hell, my mood swings possession to possession.

We SUCK!!

We’re AWESOME!!

Like my high school teacher used to say about us students when somebody didn’t remember something we just learned. You’re all a bunch of chickens; you wake up in a new world every day.

by Dunemonkey on Jan 25, 2012 3:08 PM PST up reply actions

I think your sentiment is a pretty good evaluation of the general state of sports punditry

But that’s totally off base when it comes to guys like Hollinger and Felton, who have been really fairly consistent, and tend to just report what their numerical evaluations say. It’s not like they’re in fan mode, claiming the Blazers should blow it up one week and declaring us contenders the next.

Yes, there is a pendulum, but basketball is a games of streaks. It seems reasonable for evaluations by “experts” to be fairly erratic.

Phase 1: Collect underpants
Phase 2: ???
Phase 3: Profit!

by HailOden! on Jan 25, 2012 3:49 PM PST up reply actions

It's still early...

Yes, this does sound about right. With virtually no preseason, this compressed schedule, along with its resulting injuries, reduces the significance of any individual game – particularly if you don’t drill down to see its specific context for each team. I believe that OKC is the only West team to be better than the Blazers at this time, but not so far that we can’t beat them if we play our “good” game.

We are still so early in this season that we get no more than glimpses of what we can become as a team, not to mention what our competition will become.This roller coaster season requires more patience than normal. If we continue to develop individually and as a team and if we have just a little luck a 4 seed is certainly possible. Any higher would require lots of luck which is not exactly our forte. Just remember that almost every other team is facing the same demons that we are. We only have to beat this year’s teams, not last years.

by HiPo Steve on Jan 25, 2012 12:20 PM PST reply actions

Hollingers playoff projections currently have us at 4

Which would be pretty nice. Probably a tough match-up against the 5 seed though….currently projects as Memphis.

by poorwebguy on Jan 25, 2012 12:31 PM PST up reply actions

I think we will now the Blazers place in the west....

at the end of game 66. That is my prediction….

Go to Heaven for the climate, Hell for the company.

by jenstcy on Jan 25, 2012 12:27 PM PST reply actions

Happy Nic Batum Deadline Day

Is there a more difficult player to put a price tag on? Sometimes he looks like a max player and other times he looks like an average 10-man in the NBA.

by billyrybates on Jan 25, 2012 12:33 PM PST reply actions

I agree with that assessment

While no one ever really knows – there are many years where there are a clear-cut top tier of teams in each conference – the East is like that this year. But in the West, there are really 10 teams that could be playoff teams. The Clippers landing Paul made them the last addition to that group.

The problem with prognosticating is that we are on unprecedented ground – no one knows how the compacted schedule and back-to-back-to-back action is going to effect teams. Will veteran teams run out of gas, will young teams with fresher legs flourish or will they struggle mentally? No one knows so it’s hard to say how teams are going to respoind and how the standings are going to shake out.

by rip_city_swagger on Jan 25, 2012 12:37 PM PST reply actions

Actually there is a precedent...

While you are right that we don’t know how the compacted season will affect any given team, we do have the lockout shortened 1998/99 season to show us how things can change in the league. As a Spurs fan that season living in Austin, I got to watch them grow into the championship team that we take for granted ever since. That growth, by the way, was not consistent, with 2 steps forward and 1 (or even 2) backwards which caused fans to pull their hair out. While that season was an outlier in many respects, it did mark the Spurs’ emergence into a long term force. That season, many of the more traditional (read older legs) teams faded over the course of the season and the playoffs. I expect that to happen this season as well.

Ironically the Spurs are doing the best job of the veteran teams – in my opinion – of limiting their vets minutes and integrating youngsters to keep their playoff legs fresher, while not losing sight of the division leaders.

by HiPo Steve on Jan 25, 2012 3:59 PM PST up reply actions

I am pretty sure Portland's place in the west is 45° 31′ 12″ N, 122° 40′ 55″ W.

Who's that tromping across my bedge?

by Troll Blazer on Jan 25, 2012 1:17 PM PST reply actions

takes me back to my geocaching days.

if i go to these exact coordinates, i better find a championship or i’m gonna be pissed!

I don't always root for an NBA franchise, but when I do, I prefer the Portland Trail Blazers.

by Oh. Em. Gee. on Jan 25, 2012 2:01 PM PST up reply actions

Actually I probably should have posted: 45° 31′ 54″ N, 122° 40′ 0″ W.

The coordinates of the Rose Garden Arena.

Who's that tromping across my bedge?

by Troll Blazer on Jan 27, 2012 9:20 AM PST up reply actions

Better get home court in Round 1 playoffs

Thats the only conclusion I have drawn at this point in the season. One and done in first round seems likely again unless we get home court.

by breakerfall on Jan 25, 2012 2:03 PM PST reply actions

well shpluh!

Can’t you say that for most teams? That the team without homecourt advantage is an underdog in the first round, and it is therefore likely that they are “one and done”?

On the other hand, the Grizzlies spanked the Spurs last year so you never know… I would definitely agree that home court advantage would be bigger for us than many, if not every, other WC playoff contender

"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'

by sammymohawk on Jan 25, 2012 2:12 PM PST up reply actions

Had we not gone one and done the last few years

Everyone wanted Dallas last year….
We thought Phoenix was a good matchup the year beofre…
Houston the year before seemd good on paper….

by breakerfall on Jan 25, 2012 2:28 PM PST up reply actions

Houston was the worst possible matchup

I was just poking fun at your statement, which I read as:

“Better get homecourt or you’ll likely lose in the first round”

Which is, of course, true for us and everybody and is beared out by statistics. I concede that the homecourt advantage may be of greater significance to us than others, but I do not see the last 3 years as indicative of this year. We had home court against Houston BTW, our team against PHX was downright depleted, and last year we took the eventual champs to 6 after recently making a roster shaking trade.

Biggest thing for us will be getting into the playoffs healthy imo.

"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'

by sammymohawk on Jan 25, 2012 2:32 PM PST up reply actions

Regular season format is good

Thsi type of hectic, game-every-other-night regular seaosn schedule may just be what this team needs to be ready for any success in the playoffs.

by breakerfall on Jan 25, 2012 2:37 PM PST up reply actions

"Everyone wanted Dallas last year…."

Which showed the collective idiocy of people in general.

"I Am Mine"

by AK1984 on Jan 25, 2012 4:29 PM PST up reply actions

harsh

we were too banged up to beat anyone in the top 4 last season. Spurs were our best bet as far as match-ups but they finished the regular season looking unstoppable. Mavs looked sporadic at times while OKC and Lakers had front courts that would have presented us with some serious problems. We just took too much damage through the season.

It’s not unrealistic to think that the Mavs were one of the better match-ups for us. Dirk was nursing an injury as well. I can understand you having a different opinion but to accuse fans of idiocy for wanting the match-up seems pretty harsh.

by poorwebguy on Jan 25, 2012 5:18 PM PST up reply actions