League's Best Point Guards, and Why Everyone Should Love Raymond
by DiegoSegui on Jan 25, 2012 12:01 AM PST
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PrintWe shouldn't love Raymond because he's great, but because he's as good as it gets right now, and there ain't no other date for the dance in the foreseeable future. The below list suggests why.
I have neither the expertise or desire to break this down too far, but in tiers, at least, here's a stab:
1st tier: Paul, Rose, D. Williams
2nd tier: Rondo, Lowry, Curry , Westbrook, Nash (not defensively, but has huge value to rest of team on offense--see Stoudamire, Amare.)
3rd tier: Lawson, Parker, Billups, Holiday
4th tier: Miller, Jack, Collison, Rubio, Kidd, Jennings, Felton, Teague, Conley, Stuckey (maybe 5th)
5th tier: Evans, Augustin, G. Hill, Lou Williams, Mo Williams, Kyrie Irving (obviously will rise)
6th tier: Nelson, Chalmers, Calderon, Ridnour, Dragic, Maynor, Shumpert, Harris (maybe--boy is he ever falling off the cliff....)
So, that's a rough list, on a good day Felton's in the third tier, on another he's in the 6th, but I think he's about in the middle of the 4th group. He's gotta start shooting better than he's been doing so far, but to be fair a lot of people aren't shooting well this season. Anyway, I can't say I'd rather have anyone in group 5 running the team, though obviously I'd trade him for Irving. Evans strikes me as the kind of point who just doesn't make the team any better, despite sometimes putting up great numbers. I'd swap Felton for Rubio for sure, and Jennings if one could guarantee that he did a lot more passing than he does sometimes with an often paltry Bucks offense. Conley's erratic and awfully small, Teague can't shoot, Kidd's too old, Jack is pretty close, I think. The Jack for Bayless pick was a poor outcome, I'd say. Anyway, sorry for the ramble, but the upshot is this:
Felton's a middle of the pack point guard, better than many, with a bit of upside on his best days. The point guards who are better than him are not going to be traded except if they're old (like Billups) or if we trade LaMarcus. We're not trading LaMarcus. So, I suggest that we give Raymond our support and hope that he plays toward the high end of his range--there's not anything meaningful out there to replace him. Now, a back up point guard would be nice....
Addendum: It's a little difficult, too, to balance offense/defense, Nash being the most obvious example of the discrepancies therein, but Andre also (he's up a tier on offense, but probably down one and occasionally two on offense).
Would love to hear from people who'd push people up and down this list. Let 'er rip if you're so inclined.
Peace.
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I wonder a lot about Mo Williams
Great year with the Bucks, goes to the Cavs and impressed the hell out of me with his defense and shooting, though not a conventional point guard, I suppose. I remember seeing them play the Blazers about 4 years ago and he looked great. Is this just another example of how some players look great when they play with great players, but if you subtract that player, they have greatly reduced value?
yeah mo is a player i've never liked
but his skillset would be perfect here. specially as a backup( that is highly unlikely though)
fast, great handle, can shoot from anywhere.
Mo would be a perfect fit....
With lamarcus. Just because he is a above avg shooter. This was brought up countless of time during Roy’s playing days as well. When you have players that countlessly get doubled or tripled… A knock down shooter than can handle the ball like Mo is an essential. Thats what the blazers are hoping to get with Crawford. Some nights we see it.
by Hoi on Jan 25, 2012 3:54 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Today's ranking of Point Guards
If you are wanting a statistical rating and not an emotional one…
Click on this site:
http://games.espn.go.com/fba/playerrater?&slotCategoryId=0
So far this season, Raymon Felton is 26th from the top of all Point Guards.
I think this one's for fantasy bball
so not quite the best marker of how good he is in reality.
"Wide, girthy. Just like a Rhino. Sometimes my horns are visible."
PER rankings is better,
but it’s ESPN insider:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/position/pg
it’s more what you’d expect—cp3, rose, westbrook, nash, lou williams are the top 5. Lowry had a couple of bad shooting games so he’s down to 7th. CJ Watson was scorching hot when filling in for Rose, and is 6th.
Felton is 45th on this list, with a PER of 11.62.
by howlingfantods on Jan 25, 2012 1:06 PM PST up reply actions
11.62 and climbing!
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
Only a matter of time
before he leaves Telfair and Ronnie Price in the dust.
Holy smoke, this is all over the godforsaken map.
I’d say that I wasted my time, but my time is a giant waste anyway.
By John Hollinger’s measure of Estimated Wins Added, Raymond Felton is 37th amongst point guards. He’s tied with a couple of puny backups, J.J. Barea and Isaiah Thomas, which says it all. So far this season, Felton’s production has barely been above that of a replacement level player. Swap him out with a veteran off the scrap heap — such as Antonio Daniels, 36, who’s keeping his career alive in the D-League — and Portland would’ve likely gotten similar results.
Y’see, that’s how bad Felton has been thus far this season. There’s no sugarcoating it, either.
I, by the way, didn’t even begin to touch on such nonsense like “Teague can’t shoot” or the asinine tier system you slapped together. Oh, and consider that me being kind. I’m holding back right now, which is no small feat.
"I Am Mine"
Give E Will a try at back up pg
I doubt Daniels has anything left.
by odensraven on Jan 25, 2012 6:20 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
"I doubt Daniels has anything left."
That wasn’t my point, but whatever.
My whole entire point — which I’ll explain, as I guess it’s needed — was “Felton’s production has barely been above that of a replacement level player.”
I was only using Antonio Daniels as an example. I could’ve instead said Blake Ahearn, Keith McLeod, or any other vet PG hanging around in the D-League.
"I Am Mine"
The problem with subjective analysis
Not that there’s no place for it, but the tier rankings of the OP appear to be entirely based on his impressions of the players, and outside of Lowry, seem to have a severe bias for previous year performance. How else to explain the fact that tier 3 includes players with PERs between 8.6 (Kidd) and 20.9 (Jennings)? And if we’re supposed to discount current year performance, why is Lowry be so high up? Obviously PER is far from perfect (although it tells almost the exact same thing as EWA), but it’s at least an incomplete proxy.
Assuming he improves somewhat, I don’t entirely disagree with the OP’s relative ranking if Felton is at the bottom of “tier 4” and a few players were bumped up (Irving is already better), but I’m not sure why we should therefore love Raymond. That still puts him roughly around 20th in the league, not a good sign when the list is already incomplete (John Wall? Ramon Sessions? Toney Douglas? Derek Fisher?) even if most of the guys left off are behind Felton. And the argument that “On a good day, he’s in the 3rd tier” always rings false to me, regardless of who we’re talking about. You could say that about any of those guys on that list. Heck, Chalmers, Ridnour and Augustin at the very least, have all had better games than Ray’s best one as a Blazer.
In a league of 30 teams, what’s so exciting about having a top 20 PG?
by Royster on Jan 25, 2012 8:00 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Great Points
This is really the crux of the issue. Felton is among a group of point guards who are clearly not All-Stars, nor are they likely to be in the foreseeable future.
I think of it as this: In general, there are 4 types of starting players at any given position in this league, including point guard. The first are the legit All-Stars who you pay big money for (Paul, Rose, Rondo,). The next set is the group of jobbers/veterans who just don’t get it done (Kidd, Douglas). These may be young guys just starting out, or old veterans way past their prime. Point is, they really don’t make for a serviceable starter.
The final two groups are players that aren’t All-Stars, but they get the job done. You hope their good nights outnumber the bad, but it usually ends up being about the same. The difference between these two groups is really one of value. There are high value guys (Lawson, Conley, Augustin), and low value guys (Calderon, Felton, Harris). The trick is to grab one of the high value guys early, and keep them to a reasonable contract. The poison pill is taking on one of the low value guys once their big contract has already come. I’m afraid the Blazers have done just that with Felton.
All of the problems with the proposed tier system aside, why should we love a guy who isn’t great, has little potential to be great, and who the Blazers pay a pretty penny for? Several point guards who can produce at the same level as Felton, if not slightly better, can be had at much less expensive contracts.
I see one of a couple things happening here:
1) The Blazers include Felton in some type of trade before the deadline as his $7.5 million expiring contract may garner some interest.
2) Felton continues with mediocre play for the remainder of the season and the Blazers simply let him go.
3) Felton continues with mediocre play for the remainder of the season and the Blazers get him to accept a low-ball contract ($5-6 million range).
4) Felton continues with mediocre play for the remainder of the season and the Blazers get conned into rewarding him with a same or better contract than what he has now.
5) Felton shows he can play consistently good basketball (shooting at least 40-45%, 13-15 ppg, A/T > 3.0), and the Blazers grant him a longer, higher level contract at the $6-9 million range.
Call me a pessimist, but I don’t see option 5 happening. I also don’t see Felton accepting option 3. My worst nightmare is option 4… but I really think Blazer management is smarter than that. That leaves either option 1 or 2 as the most likely and either one should work out fine for the team.
by JDX on Jan 25, 2012 8:44 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I'm fine with mediocrity from any position
As long as it’s not every position. Obviously we weren’t planning on having our PG be one of our stars going into the season (although I think Buchanan had his fingers crossed that Ray could continue to improve on last year), and that’s fine. Nothing wrong with having a serviceable cog filling in, but unless we’re talking about an excellent cog (a la Camby or Kersey back in the day), we should be looking to improve the position, in the long term, at the very least.
Maybe we can’t improve the position for now, and I’d agree endlessly complaining about Ray is pointless, but we do seem to be getting a little excessive pushback with the “fans should love Ray’s contribution” arguments here.
"Love" is too strong--mea culpa
It’s just that if we’re stuck with him, and there’ no better option for the year, hating on him is tiring. He is what he is.
by DiegoSegui on Jan 25, 2012 8:31 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
And what list wouldn't be complete...
without Steve Blake, who is -0.1 on Hollingers wins added list.
by signal_lost on Jan 25, 2012 11:55 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Subjective Analysis
Admittedly. Yeah, I didn’t go through the list thoroughly (that’s why I admit to lack of expertise and time, right at the top of the list).
In terms of rating people together who are having widely divergent years, it’s reasonable to expect that Jennings will revert more to his norm, jacking up a lot of shots that don’t go in, and Kidd has been playing through some injuries, though I don’t see much upside for him at all. But, I think it would be off base to base everything on the first seventeen games, and not consider past performance at all.
As for Lowry, I’ve always had a soft spot for Lowry, based on his defense and my perception of his mental toughness. Once he developed a shot, he’s become a very strong player.
The “Everybody Should Love Raymond” was just a throwaway line that popped into my head around midnight. “Love” is a little strong. But I’m not convinced that we can do a whole lot better in a trade. Do you see a viable trade of Felton for another PG that actually makes us better?
Meh, as I've said previously
I’m fine spinning the wheels some with Felton and seeing if this is just an extended slump. If we’re still looking at this level of play around the trade deadline, I’d be asking around about Jack, Mo Williams, Augustin, Hill, Ridnour, Calderon, and Sessions. None of them excite me, but if this is all we’re going to get from Felton, I’d rather have them. Plus, given their teams’ situations, the asking price for them should be reasonable, something like a pick + Felton.
The Analysis is Incomplete
Even if I agreed with the placement of guards in your tier system (i.e. I don’t), your conclusion fails to consider a large point and that is the cost of each player.
You said that you’d rather not have one of your 5th tier point guards running the team (despite the fact that at least 3 on your list are playing better than Felton this season), but isn’t it possible one of those players may be better for the team overall given the Blazers would pay $2-3 million less?
Saving money for a similar (marginally worse or marginally better) point guard means you get to invest that money elsewhere.
Ridnour is balling this year. I'd take him in a heartbeat. He's flown under the radar the past 2 years.
A displaced Sonics fan that has somehow emerged as a Blazers fan (and loves it).
by anitachampionship on Jan 25, 2012 7:52 AM PST reply actions
Hmm... Not So Sure About That
Alright, I’ll give you that his 15 PER isn’t terrible. It certainly is better than what Felton is showing us currently. But what kind of player is Ridnour? He’s a solid shooter, but his floor-leading skills are a bit anemic. His distribution skills have never wowed anyone, and his A/T leaves a bit to be desired. He’s also a little undersized and not known for being a great defender. Also, the potential for breakthrough improvement is all but gone as he’s 30 years old now.
Ridnour reminds of Steve Blake a bit. Sure, he may not be the worst point guard in the league, but I would hope the team could find better.
I will say that I’d take Ridnour’s current $3 million performance over Felton’s current $7.5 million performance any day of the week and twice on Sunday.
insert photo of David Segui here
"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'
Ramon Sessions
I wouldn’t be surprised if the Blazers have inquired about him. He’s been of interest for a long time (we know how we our front office loves Nevada players). His downsides have always been defense and a three point shot, but this year he seems to have found the latter. I would’ve thought that Cleveland would want to hold on to him this season, but Irving seems to have hit the ground running. What would people think about offering Nolan for him? Nolan’s used to backing up Irving…
To his defense
that team and its PG’s play has been pretty forgettable.
But he also missed
Fisher and I’m sure others.
fisher
is barely a point guard. mainly a spot-up shooter
"Wide, girthy. Just like a Rhino. Sometimes my horns are visible."
Steve Blake?
Somebody step up! - Mike Rice
by We-B-Dunkin on Jan 25, 2012 11:44 AM PST up reply actions
we all know who actually handles the ball for the fakers
it’s kobe.
"Wide, girthy. Just like a Rhino. Sometimes my horns are visible."
We should trade for Denver's backup.
I hear he is unhappy. He would fit in nicely with Aldridge.
by BlazerDavid on Jan 25, 2012 10:43 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Miller recanted his comments
He’s justifiably a little upset that he could be starting in this league but isn’t. Personally, I like guys with that kind of competitor fire who won’t accept backup roles. It’s hard to come to grips with that after starting for 12 years. Miller was just being emotion, and probably shouldn’t say such things publicly, but it’s not like he’s being a punk.
Henne is the greatest and the Dolphins will go 14-2 this year and win the SB
by zeusmith on Jan 25, 2012 11:28 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
If Devin Harris is falling off a cliff, Felton is right there with him, holding hands
They have both been horrible this year (PERs under 12). Based on what I’ve seen on the court and in the box scores, Felton belongs in the very bottom “tier” of NBA point guards this season. As someone mentioned above, you could give almost any journey-level, vet-minimum point guard the minutes Felton’s been given and probably get the same — or better — results.
Is Jose Calderon available?
injuries have been his biggest knock. Good shooter, distributor, has worlds of experience, could probably be had for cheap, would know how to fit in with a new and faster group and would appreciate a ticket out of Toronto. What do you say, give another Spaniard a shot?
I'd take Calderon
I guess he has a reputation as a poor defender, but he’s a really efficient offensive point guard. He’s only 30, three years older than Felton.
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