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By the Numbers: The Blazer's differences between wins and losses (updated)

I decided to look into what exactly is the biggest predictor of a loss by the Blazers this season. Here are some outstanding figures to look at from the Blazer players in Win and Loss Splits.

Let's start with Camby

His numbers are not extremely different from wins and losses, but there are some number that show some minor differences. Bolded numbers show some differences.

By Result GP MIN FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% OR DR REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
In wins 11 24.9 1.3-3.6 .350 0.0-0.0 .000 0.8-1.4 .600 2.7 8.4 11.1 2.8 1.9 0.8 2.5 1.6 3.4
In losses 6 20.8 1.0-3.2 .316 0.0-0.0 .000 0.3-0.7 .500 3.2 4.8 8.0 1.0 0.7 0.8 2.3 1.5 2.3

As you can see in wins he averages more minutes and rebounds and his assist numbers and blocks are considerably higher. While some people may say this is due to foul trouble this is not necessarily the case as his Personal Fouls are nearly identical. His point total is a little more in wins, but that is partially based off the 12 point outburst he had as well as playing more minutes. These difference are relatively small and may or may not contribute to actual wins.

Let's Move on to Lamarcus Aldridge. Again significant differences are bolded.

By Result GP MIN FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% OR DR REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
In wins 12 35.6 9.3-18.3 .511 0.0-0.1 .000 4.7-6.1 .767 3.3 6.3 9.5 2.8 0.8 1.1 3.4 2.4 23.3
In losses 8 38.3 8.8-18.4 .476 0.1-0.4 .333 3.6-4.6 .784 3.1 4.8 7.9 2.9 0.6 1.1 3.1 1.6 21.3

The biggest surprise I found was that Aldridge has actually played fewer minutes in wins than losses and scores more points on average doing so. This can be attributed to blow outs that enabled Aldridge to play less minutes. The higher point total then shows that Aldridge's usage rate is higher, especially seeing his turnovers are higher. In conclusion involving Aldridge as much as possible in the smallest amount of time (increasing his usage rate) will help dictate wins for the Blazers, but there is still not drastic enough differences to infer that it will always result in wins.

Now Raymond Felton. Differences are bolded.

By Result GP MIN FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% OR DR REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
In wins 12 32.9 3.8-10.3 .363 0.7-3.0 .222 1.8-2.4 .759 0.5 2.6 3.1 6.6 0.0 1.2 2.4 3.5 10.0
In losses 8 33.8 4.0-10.6 .376 0.6-3.8 .167 2.4-2.8 .864 0.1 1.3 1.4 6.8 0.5 1.3 2.4 2.0 11.0

Felton's minutes are identical in wins and losses which will help in seeing actual production in wins vs. Losses. The interesting thing is that Felton's points and Turnovers are not a predictor of Blazer wins at all. The only positive relationships between wins and losses is his rebounding and assists. Felton's assist total could also be directly correlated with pace. But in reality Felon's production on average has no influence on wins or losses. Update: Felton's minutes played have dropped from 34.3 to 32.9 as a result of Nolan Smith getting more minutes into the rotation. His assist numbers have also dropped since then.

Wesley Matthews. An X factor of sorts.

By Result GP MIN FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% OR DR REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
In wins 12 33.8 5.3-12.1 .434 2.2-5.3 .406 2.7-3.0 .889 0.7 2.8 3.4 1.8 0.3 0.8 1.9 1.1 15.3
In losses 8 31.4 3.8-9.8 .385 1.1-4.4 ..314 2.0-2.4 .842 0.8 2.0 2.8 1.0 0.0 1.9 2.4 1.0

10.9

Here is one of the most telling stats of any Blazer predicting wins and losses. Matthews shooting percentages and point total is higher by a significant amount in wins than losses. He also takes considerably more shots in wins too. If Matthews is shooting well chances of Blazers winning are considerably higher. His 3 point shooting numbers show a dramatic difference as Matthews hits almost double the amount of threes in wins than losses.

Gerald Wallace. The Number one difference between wins and losses.

By Result GP MIN FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% OR DR REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
In wins 12 33.9 6.6-11.6 .568 0.8-2.5 .333 3.1-4.3 .725 1.3 5.8 7.1 2.2 0.6 1.4 2.8 1.5 17.1
In losses 7 34.4 3.0-9.6 .313 0.3-2.3 .125 1.3-2.5 .500 1.6 5.3 6.9 2.3 0.4 1.7 2.4 2.7 7.4

Looking at Wallace's numbers looks like two separate players. His shooting percentages are nearly double in wins, and he takes an average of three more shots a game. All adding up to an eleven point difference between wins and losses. Also of note is in losses Wallace turns the ball over almost twice as much in losses. If Wallace is doing good it is almost a certainty that Blazers will be in position to win.

Nicolas Batum

By Result GP MIN FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% OR DR REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
In wins 12 22.3 2.8-7.3 .386 1.1-2.9 .371 3.0-3.4 .878 1.3 2.7 3.9 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.2 1.2 9.8
In losses 8 28.5 4.5-9.5 .474 1.5-3.8 .400 2.9-3.6 .793 1.8 2.9 4.6 1.5 1.0 0.8 2.5 1.0 13.4

Batum's numbers are better across the board in losses due to more playing as a direct result from Gerald Wallace's productivity. If Wallace is not doing good Batum Will try to pick up the slack, but it has not been good enough to get a win for the Blazers. Batum needs to be more aggressive and not be afraid to take more shots and get more involved with passing the ball.

Jamal Crawford

By Result GP MIN FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% OR DR REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
In wins 12 23.7 4.0-10.8 .369 1.0-3.4 .293 2.9-3.1 .946 0.1 1.7 1.8 3.8 0.2 .9 1.5 1.5 11.9
In losses 8 26.3 5.3-14.9 .353 1.8-5.1 .341 2.7-2.9 .955 0.3 2.0 2.3 3.4 0.1 .9 1.5 2.6 14.9

Crawford's numbers are very similar across the board too, although so far this season he has had to put the Blazers on his back if nothing else comes along, which is why he has scored more in losses. If no one will score for the Blazers Crawford is fine taking up the scoring role for the Blazers. Unfortunately the Blazer's have fallen short when he has done that. Update: Crawford's shooting percentages have all gone up about 20%, a good sign of things to come?

The rest of the bench's production is similar between wins and losses.

In Conclusion

The two biggest differences between wins and losses is the production of Gerald Wallace and Wesley Matthews. If they both are shooting better and getting more involved than chances are the Blazers will put themselves in a position to win. Unfortunately Wallace and Matthews seem like they are only capable of doing this at home. Hopefully they will be able to shoot better on the upcoming road trip.

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