By the Numbers: The Blazer's differences between wins and losses (updated)

by tyeforshee on Jan 24, 2012 4:44 PM PST

I decided to look into what exactly is the biggest predictor of a loss by the Blazers this season. Here are some outstanding figures to look at from the Blazer players in Win and Loss Splits.

Let's start with Camby

His numbers are not extremely different from wins and losses, but there are some number that show some minor differences. Bolded numbers show some differences.

By Result	GP	MIN	FGM-FGA	FG%	3PM-3PA	3P%	FTM-FTA	FT%	OR	DR	REB	AST	BLK	STL	PF	TO	PTS
In wins	11	24.9	1.3-3.6	.350	0.0-0.0	.000	0.8-1.4	.600	2.7	8.4	11.1	2.8	1.9	0.8	2.5	1.6	3.4
In losses	6	20.8	1.0-3.2	.316	0.0-0.0	.000	0.3-0.7	.500	3.2	4.8	8.0	1.0	0.7	0.8	2.3	1.5	2.3

As you can see in wins he averages more minutes and rebounds and his assist numbers and blocks are considerably higher. While some people may say this is due to foul trouble this is not necessarily the case as his Personal Fouls are nearly identical. His point total is a little more in wins, but that is partially based off the 12 point outburst he had as well as playing more minutes. These difference are relatively small and may or may not contribute to actual wins.

Let's Move on to Lamarcus Aldridge. Again significant differences are bolded.

By Result	GP	MIN	FGM-FGA	FG%	3PM-3PA	3P%	FTM-FTA	FT%	OR	DR	REB	AST	BLK	STL	PF	TO	PTS
In wins	12	35.6	9.3-18.3	.511	0.0-0.1	.000	4.7-6.1	.767	3.3	6.3	9.5	2.8	0.8	1.1	3.4	2.4	23.3
In losses	8	38.3	8.8-18.4	.476	0.1-0.4	.333	3.6-4.6	.784	3.1	4.8	7.9	2.9	0.6	1.1	3.1	1.6	21.3

The biggest surprise I found was that Aldridge has actually played fewer minutes in wins than losses and scores more points on average doing so. This can be attributed to blow outs that enabled Aldridge to play less minutes. The higher point total then shows that Aldridge's usage rate is higher, especially seeing his turnovers are higher. In conclusion involving Aldridge as much as possible in the smallest amount of time (increasing his usage rate) will help dictate wins for the Blazers, but there is still not drastic enough differences to infer that it will always result in wins.

Now Raymond Felton. Differences are bolded.

By Result	GP	MIN	FGM-FGA	FG%	3PM-3PA	3P%	FTM-FTA	FT%	OR	DR	REB	AST	BLK	STL	PF	TO	PTS
In wins	12	32.9	3.8-10.3	.363	0.7-3.0	.222	1.8-2.4	.759	0.5	2.6	3.1	6.6	0.0	1.2	2.4	3.5	10.0
In losses	8	33.8	4.0-10.6	.376	0.6-3.8	.167	2.4-2.8	.864	0.1	1.3	1.4	6.8	0.5	1.3	2.4	2.0	11.0

Felton's minutes are identical in wins and losses which will help in seeing actual production in wins vs. Losses. The interesting thing is that Felton's points and Turnovers are not a predictor of Blazer wins at all. The only positive relationships between wins and losses is his rebounding and assists. Felton's assist total could also be directly correlated with pace. But in reality Felon's production on average has no influence on wins or losses. Update: Felton's minutes played have dropped from 34.3 to 32.9 as a result of Nolan Smith getting more minutes into the rotation. His assist numbers have also dropped since then.

Wesley Matthews. An X factor of sorts.

By Result	GP	MIN	FGM-FGA	FG%	3PM-3PA	3P%	FTM-FTA	FT%	OR	DR	REB	AST	BLK	STL	PF	TO	PTS
In wins	12	33.8	5.3-12.1	.434	2.2-5.3	.406	2.7-3.0	.889	0.7	2.8	3.4	1.8	0.3	0.8	1.9	1.1	15.3
In losses	8	31.4	3.8-9.8	.385	1.1-4.4	..314	2.0-2.4	.842	0.8	2.0	2.8	1.0	0.0	1.9	2.4	1.0	10.9

Here is one of the most telling stats of any Blazer predicting wins and losses. Matthews shooting percentages and point total is higher by a significant amount in wins than losses. He also takes considerably more shots in wins too. If Matthews is shooting well chances of Blazers winning are considerably higher. His 3 point shooting numbers show a dramatic difference as Matthews hits almost double the amount of threes in wins than losses.

Gerald Wallace. The Number one difference between wins and losses.

By Result	GP	MIN	FGM-FGA	FG%	3PM-3PA	3P%	FTM-FTA	FT%	OR	DR	REB	AST	BLK	STL	PF	TO	PTS
In wins	12	33.9	6.6-11.6	.568	0.8-2.5	.333	3.1-4.3	.725	1.3	5.8	7.1	2.2	0.6	1.4	2.8	1.5	17.1
In losses	7	34.4	3.0-9.6	.313	0.3-2.3	.125	1.3-2.5	.500	1.6	5.3	6.9	2.3	0.4	1.7	2.4	2.7	7.4

Looking at Wallace's numbers looks like two separate players. His shooting percentages are nearly double in wins, and he takes an average of three more shots a game. All adding up to an eleven point difference between wins and losses. Also of note is in losses Wallace turns the ball over almost twice as much in losses. If Wallace is doing good it is almost a certainty that Blazers will be in position to win.

Nicolas Batum

By Result	GP	MIN	FGM-FGA	FG%	3PM-3PA	3P%	FTM-FTA	FT%	OR	DR	REB	AST	BLK	STL	PF	TO	PTS
In wins	12	22.3	2.8-7.3	.386	1.1-2.9	.371	3.0-3.4	.878	1.3	2.7	3.9	0.6	0.7	0.6	1.2	1.2	9.8
In losses	8	28.5	4.5-9.5	.474	1.5-3.8	.400	2.9-3.6	.793	1.8	2.9	4.6	1.5	1.0	0.8	2.5	1.0	13.4

Batum's numbers are better across the board in losses due to more playing as a direct result from Gerald Wallace's productivity. If Wallace is not doing good Batum Will try to pick up the slack, but it has not been good enough to get a win for the Blazers. Batum needs to be more aggressive and not be afraid to take more shots and get more involved with passing the ball.

Jamal Crawford

By Result	GP	MIN	FGM-FGA	FG%	3PM-3PA	3P%	FTM-FTA	FT%	OR	DR	REB	AST	BLK	STL	PF	TO	PTS
In wins	12	23.7	4.0-10.8	.369	1.0-3.4	.293	2.9-3.1	.946	0.1	1.7	1.8	3.8	0.2	.9	1.5	1.5	11.9
In losses	8	26.3	5.3-14.9	.353	1.8-5.1	.341	2.7-2.9	.955	0.3	2.0	2.3	3.4	0.1	.9	1.5	2.6	14.9

Crawford's numbers are very similar across the board too, although so far this season he has had to put the Blazers on his back if nothing else comes along, which is why he has scored more in losses. If no one will score for the Blazers Crawford is fine taking up the scoring role for the Blazers. Unfortunately the Blazer's have fallen short when he has done that. Update: Crawford's shooting percentages have all gone up about 20%, a good sign of things to come?

The rest of the bench's production is similar between wins and losses.

In Conclusion

The two biggest differences between wins and losses is the production of Gerald Wallace and Wesley Matthews. If they both are shooting better and getting more involved than chances are the Blazers will put themselves in a position to win. Unfortunately Wallace and Matthews seem like they are only capable of doing this at home. Hopefully they will be able to shoot better on the upcoming road trip.

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Comments

Very detailed and interesting analysis. Well done. Rec'ed accordingly.

A displaced Sonics fan that has somehow emerged as a Blazers fan (and loves it).

by anitachampionship on Jan 24, 2012 5:00 PM PST reply actions

I don't get what this post signifies.

the shining example for my argument is Ray Felton and Jamal Crawford, who have few differences between wins and losses.

"I was a victim of a series of accidents, as are we all."

by thankyouforblaze on Jan 28, 2012 2:48 PM PST up reply actions

It is showing that the main difference are the ones who do have differences. This is part of the cause from wins and losses.

Example: Gerald Wallace scores over 17 points a game in wins whereas in losses he only scored an average of 7 points a game. This infers (using standard deviation techniques and t tests) that the Blazers are much more likely to win when Wallace scores within one standard deviation of his 17 points scored.

What your are saying as applied to Felton, Crawford, and Aldridge is also another way of looking at where the Blazers consistency lies. Those three Blazers production is a much closer range of values which means regardless of wins or losses those numbers will be similar on average. If that is the case then the question is asked what is the difference when the Blazers do win?

This is how you can come to find the major differences between wins and losses, which I labeled as Wallace and Matthews, who both have consistently better numbers in wins than losses. This is a correlation technique used among many areas of study. By seeing the correlation between the success and failure of a test (in this case a basketball game) it can then be inferred that when Wallace and Matthews play to their “winning stats” that the Blazers are in a a better chance to win, even if the other Blazer players are playing at their “losing stats”

by tyeforshee on Jan 29, 2012 12:08 AM PST up reply actions

we just play similarly in wins and losses,

as many of our loses have been by just a couple points, and is more about defensive factors than offensive stats.

i see that Wallace plays different between home and away, though that doesn’t always account for wins and losses, as we have lost one at home and won several on the road and the Wallace factor wasn’t really a factor.

My belief is that we play pretty well (in most games) and therefore get similar stats whether we win or lose, but we tend to have to come back from being down double digits and the clock just runs out.

Hopefully, since Felton hasn’t been a major factor in deciding games, that when he starts playing better (not if, but when!) we will be playing very good ball.

"I was a victim of a series of accidents, as are we all."

by thankyouforblaze on Jan 29, 2012 12:57 AM PST up reply actions

I am not speaking in absolutes, but merely in probabilities.

It is highly more probable that if Wallace and Matthews play to their “winning stats” the Blazers will be in a better chance to win even if the other Blazers play to their “losing stats.”

by tyeforshee on Jan 29, 2012 11:31 AM PST up reply actions

agreed.

I was just wondering where the analysis led. I’m not taking away anything from the post, which was well-thought out and analyzed, it just seems to me that things are very close whether we win or lose, unless its a blow-out game.

I find more of a contradiction between home and away games rather than wins versus loses.

"I was a victim of a series of accidents, as are we all."

by thankyouforblaze on Jan 29, 2012 2:45 PM PST up reply actions

agreed

which makes sense because the Blazers have won a lot at home compared on the road. The stats are very similar when compared with with Home vs Road

by tyeforshee on Jan 29, 2012 6:02 PM PST up reply actions

I dont get why Wallaces shooting gets so awful on the road

missing every other freethrow and and less than 1/3 field goals… his stats “crash” on the road, amirite…

The tensions are so high because the stakes are so low!

by tylercomp on Jan 24, 2012 5:31 PM PST reply actions

This is why I wouldn't mind trading the guy

We need a center more then we need a player that can only play well at home.

by AR-15 on Jan 24, 2012 5:42 PM PST up reply actions

I'm not convinced he is incapable of playing well on the road

that’s only based on a pretty small sample size for this season

"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'

by sammymohawk on Jan 25, 2012 1:18 PM PST up reply actions

True

I would still do the trade though, if it got us a good center. I don’t think Wallace helps as much as a center even as mediocre as Okfor. And thats just because of our current roster not as individual players.

by AR-15 on Jan 26, 2012 6:06 PM PST up reply actions

Nice work!

Rec

by DonttrashCrash on Jan 24, 2012 8:12 PM PST reply actions

regarding Batum

don’t discount the minutes. In some of the blowouts, Nic has gotten a lot more burn…young players often need a little more time to find a rhythm…(see Bayless, Martell…etc).

It is interesting discussing Nic’s production. With that second unit, the ball moves through Crawford, Smith, and Smith…none of which are really looking for the open man. If Nic gets too agressive, that second unit becomes a bunch of chuckers….which makes them even weaker than they are now.

by ripcitymilehigh on Jan 24, 2012 8:32 PM PST reply actions

Thx!

OSU '06
GForce Crash Wallace FTW!

by TyboOSU on Jan 25, 2012 4:05 AM PST via mobile reply actions

RE: Batum

I really feel bad for the kid, since when he is on the court he NEVER gets the ball from jamal or felton (nolan smith shoots way too often too, as it seems he thinks that scoring is the way to more minutes). Nic cuts to the basket for an open layup/dunk, no pass. He is open on the 3 point line, no pass. Neither felton or jamal are good passers (despite felton’s decent assist/game, he mainly benefits from the pick and pop with LA), so Nic has little opportunity to contribute offensively (while covering for them defensively).

Within the past few games, I’ve watched Nic be wide open time and time again, yet the guards (primarily jamal but also felton) never pass him the ball. In the games that Jamal was awful (you know, most of the games), there were multiple occasions when on a semi-break, Nic was open in 1 corner and Jamal in the other, and felton insisted to go jamal for the missed shot. This included the couple games where nic was on fire. i don’t understand why felton would pass to the ice cold guy shooting in the 30% range instead of the best shooter on the floor. I would like to think that at the highest level of basketball players wouldn’t intentionally freeze out their teammates, but watching our
“point "guards with Nic, sometimes I’m forced to wonder.

Ultimately, I’m tired of watching Jamal dribble for 23 seconds and fire up terrible shot after terrible shot (even when they go in). Basketball is a team game, and jamal is a one-on-one player. He might have the occasional game where he is in the zone, but it is always at the expense of the 4 other guys on the court with him. Most of the time he is below average-to-average defensively and he is either awful, really awful, or really hot on offense.

It seems like jamal is a really nice guy, so it pains me to say that I hate watching his selfish play.

by retirecards51 on Jan 25, 2012 9:29 AM PST reply actions 1 recs

WHERE ARE PPG AVERAGES?

by Cjones10 on Jan 25, 2012 1:40 PM PST reply actions

It should be the last column labeled "PTS"

If you can’t see them on the far right of the listed stats, you might need to make the font on your browser smaller or try a different browser.

by jukelike20 on Jan 25, 2012 1:53 PM PST up reply actions

Ah you are a genius

I had to reduce my browser down to 85 percent, the last thing i was getting was TO.

by Cjones10 on Jan 25, 2012 2:03 PM PST up reply actions

By the Numbers: The Blazer's differences between wins and losses

HOME: 8-1, ROAD 3-6 —

You say G. Wall is the number one difference, that is because he has the most dramitic splits home/away of any Blazer.

Home: 35 MPG, FG .638%, 3P% .364, 18.7 PPG, 2.6 APG, 6.8 RPG
Road: 34 MPG, FG .296%, 3P% .158, 08.3 PPG, 2.0 APG, 8.1 RPG

For Gerald it really boils down to how well he shoots, and how high of a percentage he shoots at home compared to away. That results in more than double his PPG output in about the same amount of minutes.

Here is one of the most telling stats of any Blazer predicting wins and losses. Matthews shooting percentages and point total is higher by a significant amount in wins than losses. He also takes considerably more shots in wins too.

I looked at his home/away splits, and it looks like that mostly has to do with the road/home factor much like G. Wallace. Wes takes on average 3 more shots at home. He shoots 9 percent better at home, the 3-ball goes down 6.6 percent more often and he scores about 7 more points at home.

by Cjones10 on Jan 25, 2012 2:01 PM PST reply actions 1 recs

You are right, that currently Wallace and Matthews are Playing a lot better at home, however

Throughout their careers though their numbers have not had that dramatic of Home vs. Road split. It has only been this season that we are seeing such a dramatic difference. This will hopefully even out over the course of the season. Although from what I have seen from most teams this season, home records are substantially better than road records. A lot of this can be attributed to the tight schedule and lack training camp to be better prepared.

Lets hope they buck the trend and shoot better on the road, as that will lead to more wins.

Nice Analysis

by tyeforshee on Jan 25, 2012 3:05 PM PST up reply actions

The nicer analysis was done on your part. How did you get it to display so nicely?

by Cjones10 on Jan 25, 2012 3:49 PM PST up reply actions

I put the numbers in excel and copied them over to Blazersedge

I took some serious tweaking, but i figured it out

by tyeforshee on Jan 25, 2012 4:07 PM PST up reply actions

Re. Felton's assist numbers

7.4 APG in wins and 6.7 APG in losses. It isn’t a huge difference, but it probably has to do with whether other people are making shots, not so much with Felton himself.

by Kaboomm on Jan 27, 2012 9:35 AM PST reply actions 1 recs

I agree

The Blazers also get more opprotunities to shoot in wins vs losses as their based on average has also been higher

by tyeforshee on Jan 29, 2012 12:12 AM PST up reply actions

*pace

by tyeforshee on Jan 29, 2012 11:34 AM PST up reply actions

Blazers 1-5 in games decided by 6 points or less. They have no closer.

From Mike Barrett tweet.

"You're not too smart, are you? I like that in a man." - Matty Walker in Body Heat (1981)

by BlazerFanSince1970 on Jan 27, 2012 11:59 AM PST reply actions

agree with this

but also their complete inability to will themselves into an offensive set, almost completely relying on random surges of cohesion off of turnovers and tiring the other team out during the course of the game.

I think this can be attributed to the bad point guard play, not being able to handle late-game on-ball pressure. The team has looked tired at the end of games, too.

by acorn on Jan 28, 2012 1:04 PM PST up reply actions

Somewhat disagree

I get the comment that with Roy gone we don’t have a true closer, but I don’t remember games outside of maybe Houston that we lost because we couldn’t close. Most of the games we’ve lost have been lost before crunch time. We’ve had some big 4th qtr comebacks that fell short, but that has been more how far we had fallen behind more than an inability to close.

by 52therim on Jan 29, 2012 7:18 PM PST up reply actions

what about Utah?

When we blew our lead and let them win because we had no closer?

by bringbacksheed on Feb 1, 2012 2:30 AM PST up reply actions

yeah that's the biggest issue.

it was easy to see in the GS & ATL games. blazers got really close to stealing the atlanta game and then just failed to execute over the last few minutes.

"Wide, girthy. Just like a Rhino. Sometimes my horns are visible."

by YoniRap on Jan 28, 2012 1:26 PM PST up reply actions

So true

part of this is because the tempo/speed of a game seems to slow way down during the end of games and the Blazers fail to execute in half court sets (especially Gerald Wallace and Raymond Felton)

by tyeforshee on Jan 29, 2012 12:14 AM PST up reply actions