Is Felton turning it over too much? Want Andre Back?

by Cjones10 on Jan 22, 2012 11:26 PM PST

I keep reading a lot of folks around here that are tired of Raymond Felton's turnovers. Some have called him a turnover machine. Others have wished for Andre Miller back. I am guilty of it myself. So, for kicks, I just looked up what Andre did for the Blazers last year, and I was kinda shocked.

Did Andre play better defense? Probably. Was he a better scorer? Maybe. But, does he turn the ball over more than Andre? No if you look at Andre's opening 16 games last year with Portland.

Thru 16 games comparing Felton and Andre from last year to this year.

Felton: Total Turnovers 45/16g=2.81 per game

Miller: Total Turnovers 46/16g=2.87 per game

Maybe we are getting ahead of ourself calling out Felton for his turnovers. There are a billion reasons why Miller should have had fewer turnovers out of the gate last year compared to Felton. Here are just a few: Miller had a normal training camp and preseason. Miller wasn't switching teams. Miller had the same group of guys around him. Miller played in a slower offense. Miller didn't have a crazy schedule during the regular season. Of course these are just a few.

In case you were wondering, Miller averaged 13.5 ppg, and 7.4 assist in that opening 16-game stretch. Felton is averaging 11.1, and 7.3 assists.

To be honest, the offensive production these two have given the Blazers thru the same stretch has been brutally similar.

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One last thing

Blazers record to start the season last year: 3-0.
Blazers record to start the season this year: 3-0.

Blazers record thru 16 games last year: 8-8
Blazers record thru 16 games this year: 9-7

Last year the Blazers were in the middle of a 6-game losing streak, that saw their record fall to 8-11 after 19 games.

Want more? The Blazers last 6 road games last year the Blazers played they went 2-4 in, the same as this last 6-game road trip. They just weren’t in a row. Also, the Blazers were 4-5, also having played 9 road games in the first 16, this year they are only one game worse, 3-6. The Blazers road record went to 4-8 as their losing streak reached 6-games on game 19.

by Cjones10 on Jan 22, 2012 11:38 PM PST reply actions 3 recs

Really?

We add two all star caliber players to a roster and we manage to improve by a single game? Clearly no one should ever complain about Felton. I personally am of the opinion that the personal stat comparisons are stupid enough, but the record comparisons are just beyond inane.

For reference, through the first 17 games (easier to calculate since it encompasses all of October and November), at this point last season, LA was shooting a whopping 44% (49% this year), scoring 18.3 points (23.3 points this year), and rebounding 8.3 boards a game (8.8 this year), but of course, that couldn’t have any effect on the record. Nor would the fact that instead of Gerald Wallace, we were trotting out a combination of a hobbled Brandon Roy and Rudy Fernandez, and the combo platter of Dante Cunningham, Fabricio Oberto, and Sean Marks were playing instead of Kurt Thomas.

But by all means, let’s continue to compare records as if Felton for Andre is the only difference between this year and last year right now.

by Royster on Jan 22, 2012 11:55 PM PST up reply actions 3 recs

That hobbled Brandon Roy

was putting up 20 ppg during that 8-8 stretch. So I wouldnt make it sound like he was playing bad at that point in the year. Now I get your point if you were talking about that hobbled Brandon Roy from 2/23 on, that was the true hobbled Roy. Roy was still playing all-star ball in my opinion.

by Cjones10 on Jan 23, 2012 12:30 AM PST up reply actions

That's a pretty low bar to be considered "all star ball", then

Brandon was shooting roughly 42% in that stretch, actually averaging only 18 points and outside of scoring, was averaging 3.2 boards, and 2.5 assists and already missing games.

So to sum up, instead of GW we had a guy putting up 18, 3.2 and 2.5 on 42% shooting with the trademark Brandon defense. In no way is that a difference.

by Royster on Jan 23, 2012 12:39 AM PST up reply actions

actually in those 16 games

his numbers were 20ppg as stated above, 2.7 ast, 3.2 reb…

and your all-star caliber addition in Gerald Wallce is doing what exactly?

13.8, 2.4 ast, 7.1 reb and awesome 68 percent from the line.

Lets not forget how he has been on the road, either. Getting the Blazers those monster 8 points per game while shooting 29 percent, pulling down 8 rebounds, and dishing 2 assists! ALL_STAR for sure!

by Cjones10 on Jan 23, 2012 2:49 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs

Blazers played 17 games in October/November last year

Brandon played 14 of those. My numbers are right. I don’t know what else to say here.

by Royster on Jan 23, 2012 3:00 AM PST up reply actions

Nobody is talking about 17 games

I didn’t just go add Andre’s two turnovers in game 17 and compare that with Felton’s 16 game turnover total. You are just being lazy with your stats cause 17 games allows to easily look at the entire month splits of Oct. Nov. to get your numbers! If you want to argue, don’t throw in games that are irrelevant to the topic at hand which compares the first 16 games, then call your numbers right after 17.

by Cjones10 on Jan 23, 2012 12:04 PM PST up reply actions

16 games, 17 games, it doesn't matter

I’d rather be lazy than wrong. We’ll go with 16 games, though, since it’s apparently such a sticking point. Through the Blazers’ 1st 16 games, he averaged an even 19 points per game. Through Brandon’s first 16 games of the season, he averaged 18.3 points per game. The latest point in the season that Brandon was averaging 20 points was after our 8th game of the season. Do the math yourself, and if you want to argue from now on, don’t make up numbers.

All in all, I’ve thoroughly enjoyed wasting my time here. Thanks again.

by Royster on Jan 23, 2012 12:55 PM PST up reply actions 4 recs

Haha wow you are really desperate to hate this team.

"Brandon Roy has done this before."

by sabonis11 on Jan 23, 2012 4:40 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

i thought he made a good point - Roy wasn't playing at an all star level

especially by the standard he set for himself. we all witnessed it, it was hard to watch

by meRoy on Jan 23, 2012 5:03 PM PST up reply actions

Yup, you got me

Clearly thinking that Felton is playing worse now than Dre was last year is something that only a true misanthrope could think.

by Royster on Jan 23, 2012 8:38 PM PST up reply actions

"Roy was still playing all-star ball in my opinion."

Exactly, that’s just your opinion. I do not think you will find many who share it.
From the beginning of last season, Roy was a shadow of himself .
I assume that your memory betrays. To refresh your memory, read this
http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/11/10/1805136/vivre-le-roy

and this
http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/11/9/1805145/transcript-blazers-guard-brandon-roy-on-his-health-minutes
The team was Roy hostage until the end of December 2010 when it was decided Brandon to be sidelined indefinitely with sore knees.

by prostofen on Jan 23, 2012 4:16 AM PST up reply actions

Thanks for "refreshing" my memory

The only thing that first article refreshed was the human habit to look at a single game or two games and get all crazy about what they seen in a game or two and overreact.

The first article was Nov. 10th. So, look at the boxscore the two nights before that was posted. Roy scored 8 against the Lakers and 11 against Detroit. People were crying that he wasn’t looking good.

How many people were saying “he doesn’t look right” the previous 7 games when he averaged 24.4 points per game?

Look at the recap from Nov. 7th, just three days earlier than the post you linked me: From Dave: “Roy shot 8-8 from the foul line tonight and had 26 points on the standard Roy effort. He really carried the offense when everyone else was collapsing.” All sounds fine there, it was just a “standard Roy effort” according to Dave.

http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/11/7/1798834/game-7-recap-trail-blazers-97-raptors-84

by Cjones10 on Jan 23, 2012 12:24 PM PST up reply actions

I and many people said he didn't look great in those first 7 games..

game 1: 24 points 20 FGA and 2 FTA, 3 rebs, 6 asts, 2 to, 3 stl – PHO
game 2: 22 points on 19 FGA and 8 FTA, 10 rebs, 2 asts, 4 to – @Clips
game 3: 29 points on 23 FGA and 8 FTA, 6 rebs, 3 asts, 3 to – @Knicks
game 4: 17 points on 12 FGA and 11 FTA, 2 rebs, 3 asts, 1 to – @Chi
game 5: 17 points on 17 FGA and 2 FTA, 0 rebs, 2 asts, 3 to, 5 steals – @Mil
game 6: 19 points on 17 FGA and 6 FTA, 5 rebs, 5 asts, 5 to – OKC
game 7: 26 points on 19 FGA and 8 FTA, 2 rebs, 0 asts, 1 to – TOR

Is the pattern not obvious? Roy hasn’t been the max level player he was a year before consistently for some time.

by your face on Jan 23, 2012 1:45 PM PST up reply actions

hmmmmmmmmmm

http://www.blazersedge.com/2010/11/22/1830201/blazer-stats-of-interest-through-14-games

i keep dancing on my own.

by atomiccafe on Jan 23, 2012 1:58 PM PST up reply actions 3 recs

What obvious patterm?

I am not sure what you are talking about that is obvious, please enlighten my unacknowledged self with the obviousness that eludes me.

Cause what I see in those stats for those 7 games in a Brandon Roy who is averaging:

22ppg, 4 rpg, 3 apg, and the year before he averaged basically 21.5/4.5/4.5, I mean, he is pretty damn close to that player the year before.

by Cjones10 on Jan 23, 2012 3:17 PM PST up reply actions

Averages lie. Maybe you need a good statistics tutor to help you out.

Or you can just read jksnake’s on point observation posted by atomic a full hour before this comment:

Brandon Roy:

APER 17.96 (22.94), Usage: 24.56 (26.75), TS% .526 (.568), Offensive rebound rate 1.5 (3.7), Assist Rate 11.81 (18.31), Steal % 2.2 (1.4), Block % 1.3 (0.5)

1 year adjusted plus minus: +0.17 (last year’s 1 year adjusted plus minus +0.06)

Jksnake99’s somewhat subjective take: Yikes. The assist rate and offensive rebound rate just jump out at you. The steal and block rates suggest that he’s trying a little harder on D this year, which is nice. Looking at Roy’s shot locations makes one cringe though— he’s taken 2.3 shots at the rim per game this year, making 52% of them… last year, he made 63% of 4.1 shots at the rim per game (and the year before that 60% of 5.8 per game). These numbers are very concerning— they tale the tale of a still solid player, but a far cry from an allstar, let alone the revelation that was Roy ‘08-’09. Blazer fans can only hope for the best regarding Roy’s knee. Its worth noting that Roy got off to a very slow start last year also before having a great December. This feels different though. SG is not as deep a position as PG this year, as only 11 SGs playing 20 mpg or more have better APERs than Roy so far.

Do you know what any of that means? How about this..

The previous year when he averaged basically 21.5/4.5/4.5 what he was really averaging was

21.5 points on 16 FGA and 7 FTA. He was also averaging 2 TOs to go with his 4.5 assists.

Not only was Roy needing more possessions to get his points. Not only was he getting fewer boards and fewer assists while getting more turnovers.. but he’s also getting worse even in that tiny sample size as he progresses.. PLUS HIS BEST GAMES ARE AGAINST HORRIBLE TEAMS.

by your face on Jan 23, 2012 4:17 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

the small sample size

came as Roy was injured and had his stats skewed following his injury and 2 pt game that preceded him sitting out for a few games. When you have an injury and a 2pt stat line right before that is posted with that sample size it will look worse than it really is. You must have overlooked that, I DIDN’T.

by Cjones10 on Jan 23, 2012 4:29 PM PST up reply actions

Nobody is trying to ascribe huge amounts of importance to the first 16 games of 2010-2011 except you. That’s why this is a discussion in the first place. You are saying that Andre Miller played worse in the first 16 games of 2010-11 than Raymond Felton has in the first 16 games of 2011-12. This assertion rests entirely on one statistic: team wins. Team wins are ascribable to the entire team, including Brandon Roy. So it’s natural that folks would attempt to rebut the assertion that Roy didn’t play very well in the FIRST 16 GAMES of the season because that’s what you’re trying to talk about. Nobody’s saying Roy wasn’t an amazing basketball player, it would be a small sample size if someone was arguing that based on those games. However, if the argument is Brandon Roy in the first 16 games of last season helped the Blazers win games less than Gerald Wallace the first 16 games of this season, it’s the only sample that matters.

i keep dancing on my own.

by atomiccafe on Jan 23, 2012 5:10 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

Importance?

It was a straight 16 vs. 16 comparison, what sense would it make to compare say 25 games vs. 16?

The main point about the Blazers record was more to give hope to us all who are down on the Blazers after starting 7-2 and dropping 5 of the last seven to look and say “hey we were 8-8 last year and still made the playoffs, why can’t we this year.”

by Cjones10 on Jan 23, 2012 5:27 PM PST up reply actions

I think the Blazers will make the playoffs as a 6th seed or so. I am not sure why you chose to put the team’s record after X games in a post attempting to defend Felton’s play. If you were seeking to engender general optimism, that’s fine but also a non-sequitur in the greater argument which seems to be that Raymond is as productive a point guard as Andre.

I also am puzzled why you have not addressed Raymond’s sub-par scoring efficiency, which based on career numbers is where most people expected Raymond to be a downgrade from Andre. Raymond has admittedly been much worse than his career numbers since getting here, so some of that is a slump that should pass. However, it still seems worth addressing.

i keep dancing on my own.

by atomiccafe on Jan 23, 2012 5:33 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

No, I didn't overlook that as I was just addressing how he played in the first 7 games.

by your face on Jan 23, 2012 10:59 PM PST up reply actions

that's some amazing analysis by jk

"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'

by sammymohawk on Jan 23, 2012 5:46 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs

Statistics is not everything.

There are categories that can not be measured.Can you measure the leadership, or someone influence?
There are two categories in which Dre is great – the ability to make his teammates better and his usefulness.Therefore he was so important for the Blazers.
He was the glue of the team, without which there is simply no team, but a group of talented athletes.In theory, this season the team should be better.There are more talent, more experience,more health but something is missing – the glue.

by prostofen on Jan 23, 2012 4:59 AM PST up reply actions

blazers just not a road team yet...that will come when the team start shooting better

by 72chiefs on Jan 22, 2012 11:48 PM PST reply actions

If they start shooting better.

MarShon Brooks would be the best shooting guard on the Trail Blazers roster. I think its time to move Batum to the 2 and start him. Give him at least 25 games to prove his value as a simi go to guy.

by Kaanyr Vhok on Jan 22, 2012 11:57 PM PST reply actions

Meh

I know less than half of you half as well as I should like, and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve.

by haildablazer on Jan 23, 2012 12:23 AM PST reply actions

this is a case where numbers don't tell the whole story

It’s HOW these turnovers happen in my opinion. At least most of Dre’s turnovers were trying to make a good play, Felton dribbles it off of feet, getting picked, making dumb passes etc and is shakier than Dre in crunch time.

One stat I’m curious about are lobs aka easy buckets. How many times has Felton lobbed to LA this season? Hopefully that’s something they can develop since their pick and pop is decent already

by meRoy on Jan 23, 2012 1:01 AM PST reply actions 1 recs

I'd like to see a breakdown of WHEN Felton's to's happen

Its the late game, critical situation TO’s that bother me not the ones mid-game so much. At the end of a close game, who would we rather be bringing the ball up the floor. I’d have to vote Dre.

I don't give a damn for a man that can only spell a word one way.
Mark Twain

Read more: http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/authors/m/mark_twain_4.html#ixzz1IE4sPu16

by Tyler Durrden on Jan 23, 2012 12:21 PM PST via mobile up reply actions

Exactly

Dre’s turnovers came mostly trying to make plays. Felton’s are often just him doing weird stuff.

by BaylessFace on Jan 23, 2012 1:20 PM PST up reply actions

No time to panic

In the four games the Blazers have played decided by three points or less they are 0-4. If they had gone just 2-2 in those games they would be 11-5 and by seasons end I think playing at least .500 in these games is very doable. Lets see how they do when they hit the easier part of their schedule, I think Felton and the Blazers will be just fine.

by Planet29 on Jan 23, 2012 8:53 AM PST reply actions

well except the turnovers aren't really the problem

people complain about the turnovers because he’s been committing some at pretty bad times. But the real problem with Felton so far has been the terrible efficiency numbers (46% TS, 95 ORTG).

i keep dancing on my own.

by atomiccafe on Jan 23, 2012 10:12 AM PST reply actions

Personally I like comparison like these

even if everyone wants to diss it.

I still am on the Dre bandwagon because Ray just isnt that much of an upgrade over Dre. Maybe age wise yes, but SO FAR, #’s wise, I will take Dre in a heartbeat. Simply because he knew our team and our plays and he made LMA an allstar.

Ray has to learn it all from scratch. Not to say Ray eventually will be better, I think its possible he will, but its gonna take him some time to learn Nates system and be able to utilize it in the ways that Dre was. Ray has had some great games so far with alot of assists and very few turnovers. But he has a ways to go to impress me. There is still time for him to get it together, get into better shape and stamina, and learn his teammates habits. I say the only way we trade Ray is if we cant get a better center first OR there is a killer PG available like Rondo or DWill(which is highly unlikely).

by cavejunctionblazer on Jan 23, 2012 10:46 AM PST reply actions

how many 3's has Ray put up and made/missed versus Dre?

That’s significant…not necessarily turnover % (though Rays oftentimes appear to be idiotic).
Ray’s shooting 15%-ish from the arc. It’s a matter of PG intelligence.
Dre knew he didn’t have his three down – so he didn’t shoot them = intelligent.
Ray just keeps shooting and missing = unintelligent.
If you’re not a good 3 shooter but want to be, don’t practice during games and go 6 for 45 or whatever over the course of 15 games.
Dre seems to have decided he’s a capable 3 shooter this year – and I’d be willing to bet he worked on it all offseason.

In general, I think Dre just appeared more intelligent on the court – the 3 as an example, his (highly successful) lobs to LMA as another, and finally the TO’s he did commit didn’t have me smacking my forehead from what I remember.

Not saying Ray’s the worst, but for the sake of argument, Dre vs Ray…Dre>Ray all day everyday

by blazerblaze on Jan 23, 2012 12:20 PM PST reply actions

3-pointers

Andre Miller:

He was 1-13 from 3-point range in the first 16 games last year. That is 7% from distance. On the year Andre shot 10.8 Percent from 3-point range. So, you are right, he shot way less. But damn was he bad!

Raymond Felton:

Is 10-53, which is 19 percent on the year. He hasn’t had the touch yet this year, but the last few years indicate he is better than what he is doing right now with Portland. Last year with Denver he shot 46 percent from the arc, and 33 percent with the Knicks. In his last full season with Charlotte he shot 39 percent. Might be too early to call him unintelligent. Felton is 4-10 in the last three games, so maybe he is starting to get his numbers back to normal…as Blazer fans we can only hope.

by Cjones10 on Jan 23, 2012 1:07 PM PST up reply actions

what 3pt% did dre shoot in the playoffs?

by meRoy on Jan 23, 2012 3:38 PM PST up reply actions

Well he made 4 three-pointers in 6 games

And with Andre we lost in the first round each year. 4 for 10 = 40 percent.

Since I answered your question, maybe you can look up and tell me how many assists Andre averaged in last years playoff series?

by Cjones10 on Jan 23, 2012 3:48 PM PST up reply actions

5.5 looks like

Dre is a 33% 3pt shooter in his playoff career (12-36)
Felton 28% (8-29)

Sure Dre may not take many 3s, but looks like he makes em count

by meRoy on Jan 23, 2012 4:49 PM PST up reply actions

Here are the point guards that Raymond (#35 in point guards) currently has a better turnover percentage than:

Jrue Holiday, Kyle Lowry, Steve Nash, John Wall, Deron Williams, Devin Harris, Rajon Rondo, Ricky Rubio, Jameer Nelson, Kyle Erving, Jason Kidd.

Here are the point guards Raymond currently has a worse turnover percentage than:
Russell Westbrook, Jeff Teague, Tyreke Evans, DJ Augustin, Luke Ridnour, Andre Miller (12.7 to 11), Jarret Jack, Ty Lawson, Derrick Rose, Mike Conley, Darren Colison, Tony Parker, Brandon Jennings, Chris Paul, & Jose Calderon.

All average 30 mpg or more except for Andre at 29.6 mpg.

For Assist percentage, Felton is # 13 in point guards behind these 30 mpg players:
Calderon, Kidd, Nash, Rubio, Andre, Rondo, Conley, & Paul

by HiPo Steve on Jan 23, 2012 1:38 PM PST reply actions

This is just my necdotal observation, but...

Don’t an unusual amount of Felton’s assists in a given game seem of the “cheap” variety? He’s getting fine assist numbers but rarely do I feel like he “ran” the offense or set someone up on a given play.

by dulcamara on Jan 23, 2012 3:21 PM PST reply actions

Yes and no

Other side of my observations, he has been getting bone smuggled out of a lot of assists since Gerald Wallace and LaMarcus Aldridge seem to miss about 2 to 4 lay-ins a game, some of which have been nice setups from Felton.

by Cjones10 on Jan 23, 2012 3:51 PM PST up reply actions

Felton should try to find LA on the lob more

I hope they can develop that connection soon because it’s painful to watch LA getting fronted all the time n Felt just dribbling

by meRoy on Jan 23, 2012 5:14 PM PST up reply actions

that would be good.

by Cjones10 on Jan 23, 2012 5:28 PM PST up reply actions

Good work CJones.

Too many people are too ready to set this team on fire. It’s laughable, really. We have a new system, a new point guard, we lost our vocal leader, we didn’t have a training camp, and we’re playing a ridiculous amount of games.

Err’ybody need to chill….

"Brandon Roy has done this before."

by sabonis11 on Jan 23, 2012 4:43 PM PST reply actions 3 recs

Thanks

I figured I would make this post to see how similar Felton and Andre did thru the same amount of games since everyone seems to be on Felton like crazy. Even me at times.

I also wanted people to relax about the 9-7 record, since last year we were 8-11 after the first 19 games last year! That’s mainly why I posted that record at the time. Just been meant with a lot of guys bringing Brandon Roy, Gerald Wallace etc. to the discussion. Still haven’t had one person really agree with my main point on Felton: “Miller had a normal training camp and preseason. Miller wasn’t switching teams. Miller had the same group of guys around him. Miller played in a slower offense. Miller didn’t have a crazy schedule during the regular season. Of course these are just a few.” But oh well, people on this site can keep flagging me and getting me warnings cause I don’t agree with everything they say.

by Cjones10 on Jan 23, 2012 5:06 PM PST up reply actions