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About that bench...and why I would play Chris Johnson alongside LaMarcus

Okay, I wouldn't play Chris Johnson for very long, but this post is really about a different idea

I've always intuitively thought about team management in a different way than the norm, and being an outlier usually means that one is wrong, because over time a good strategy will migrate from outlier to norm, and the following idea really hasn't.


Star-divide

The idea is essentially this: why do teams have usually short but significant stretches of time that their worst players (that make it in the game) are on the court together?

There's the idea of second unit chemistry, I suppose. There's the idea of first team chemistry too, and I'll admit that that's compelling. But any player on the bench is likely to be more successful when playing with better players as opposed to playing with lesser ones. So one has to consider the trade-off: how much better is a team because the starters play at the same time (and thus bench players play mainly at the same time as each other, too)?

Now, admittedly, every team has overlap, and there's a big statistical data-crunch needed to analyze what the actual breakdown is between the groups and their degree of separation. Still consider the following scenarios:

What if one played Craig Smith at the same time with Camby, a first rate rebounder, rather than lumped with the also short, also can't jump Kurt Thomas? Let Camby play high-low with Smith, who is a handful in the paint with the ball (though I don't really much value otherwise).

What if Elliot Williams played on the same unit as shot blockers like Camby, where he could get out on the break and use his athleticism? Also, he could gamble a bit more on defense and have some back up in the paint.

Throw Chris Johnson in for two or three minutes for Camby, in the first period, when he's surrounded by four other guys who like to shoot the ball, rather than with Jamal and three other guys who can't create a shot. This of course would also keep Camby fresher and hopefully lead to more blocked shots and that fast break that was supposed to be the key to our success. A guy like Chris Johnson is not going to develop into much of an offensive player, and thus his shortcomings become much clearer with the second unit. But if he was down low, on the opposite side of the block from LaMarcus, and crashed the boards or cut to the basket during a double team, and all he had to do was catch the ball and dunk it, he might get 6-8 easy points a game. He's certainly not going to do this when Craig Smith or Kurt has the ball, and he's probably not going to have the hands or savvier movement to catch Jamal's passes. (yes, I know the last two words may induce chuckles among the crew). Maybe the kid has value that is not being unlocked unless he plays with the best players.

Why not play Gerald Wallace a bit more with the second team, since his ability to crash the boards would be more important (we're missing more shots) and again we've got weak rebounding with Smith/Thomas? He could become the post option when LaMarcus is out.

Why not play Batum more with Aldridge, where he can spot up when Aldridge has the ball, as opposed having Gerald spotting up, where he's a low percentage shooter and then also not near the rim for a rebound?

Obviously there are some reasons why the above doesn't happen that much; my point, though, is not so much to suggest particular scenarios as much as to consider the ways that players's strengths might be leveraged vis a vis their teammates, and to suggest that starter/reserve dichotomies can blind teams to the best combinations.

Clearly this is part of what Nate had in mind a couple of years ago when he handed the starting job to Batum, who could defend and didn't need a lot of shots. Travis Outlaw, bless his country boy heart, was the far better offensive player at that point, but he was the focal point of the 2nd Unit offense. We do a somewhat similar thing this year by having Crawford on the second team (though I'm not convinced he's better than Wesley when you look at defense, certainly not when Wesley wasn't going through a horrid slump). But what about other players, too?

I do think that previous commenters about the weakness of the bench have a point. Still, we're going to have to get good contributions from these guys, because they're going to play whether it's in a systematic way or when our first unit collapses from injuries due to fatigue. I'm not claiming this is a miracle fix--I think we're clearly a PG and a big man short of a championship team--but if we can squeeze five more wins out of it and have a more rested team on the whole, it would be worth it.

Comment 25 comments  |  10 recs  | 

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I think you are a clever man, and history often favors the bold

But sport coaches love risk management.

I think, many times, and by many significant people, does this game become “who’s on the floor against whom” rather than “who is on the floor with whom”. The game becomes about individual match-ups rather than which team-mates compliment each-other the best.

There are some hidden gems on our bench in terms of bold line-ups. You touched on a major one, with Aldridge/Johnson and Camby/Smith being a good way to split those 4 players up. There are times when Batum makes a whole lot more sense on the court than Wallace does (against a zone?) but because Wallace is the more established player, he gets the minutes to work himself out of a slump.

In terms of position skills we need to make this work we need:
1. A point guard who can space the floor but also get the ball out of Crawfords hands. Steve Blake would be a fine option. Ridnour would be VERY good option.
2. A strong rebounder at the PF position – someone like Evans, Amir or Bass. Energy guy.
3. A low post scorer with legit size, someone like Pekovic, who can clean up O boards and get easy points for the second unit.

by Sir.Ludo on Jan 21, 2012 12:24 PM PST reply actions  

I completely agree!

Was watching the game on League Pass last night and even the Raptors commentators said that if the Blazers could somehow surround Aldridge with better shooters that he would be “unstoppable” and the Blazers would be alot better overall. As of right now Nico does make more sense in that starting lineup then does Wallace. Of course “Crash” is the better player but this is about the team! James Harden would start on any team in the league at the 2 guard spot. Thabo Sefalosha just brings more defense to the starting lineup. When Aldridge posts and the defense brings the double, his, and our best opportunity to convert is by having as many 3 point shooters on the floor as possible. So far this year Felton has struggled shooting the long ball. Wesley is really the only one knocking down 3’s after Aldridge has kicked it out. Nico has already said playing time would definetly influence his decision to sign long term. I’m not saying we should empty the bank. I just think he fit’s better with our core going forward. Also, when Lamarcus goes to the bench defensive rebounding becomes a problem. Outside of Camby, Wallace is this teams best defensive rebounder so it would make sense to have him in that second unit. You could even afford to put CJ in when Geralds on the floor. I’ve watched Batum his whole career and have seen things from him this year that warrant his assertion into the starting line up! Thoughts?

by B.ROY007 on Jan 21, 2012 1:09 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

Several good points

The Harden analogy is an interesting one. In my mind, he’s clearly part of a Big 3 for them (and kudos to them for making what many thought was a reach and odd pick in grabbing him). But OKC has an odd thing going on, in that with Thabo, Ibaka, and Perkins on the floor at the same time, they allow other teams to concentrate on the Big 2. One wonders, particularly, about having Perkins and Ibaka on the floor at the same time, particularly with 2 superior offensive players in Nazr and Collison coming off the bench.

by DiegoSegui on Jan 21, 2012 3:22 PM PST up reply actions  

I am in full agreement with DiegoSegui here, I would really like to see Nate use more imagination in his rotations.

UnfortuNATEly, he has proven time and again that he prefers to find an 8 man rotation, and stick with it, and usually only goes beyond that when injuries force him out of his comfort zone. It does not seem to matter who it is that is on his bench, he seems to like keeping them there.

LET THE LAMONSTER ERA BEGIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

by LaMarvelous on Jan 21, 2012 1:26 PM PST reply actions  

im sorry

but its not going to happen mcmillan is pulling teeth playing nolan right now and honestly the other guys have shown nothing to prove that they deserve to play. elliot is a bad defender and a rookie, nolan he is a good defender doesnt have an offensive game, cj no offensive game and plays poor defense to small. armon again just not a good enough defender. all the guys that are getting minutes right now deserve them the most

by jpark on Jan 21, 2012 2:22 PM PST reply actions  

2 arguments

What I’m trying to get across is that the combinations of players might be tweaked differently. There’s also the argument that the bench should be used more often, which I do agree with, but that’s a different issue (though I admit to rolling them both together in this post).

by DiegoSegui on Jan 21, 2012 2:37 PM PST reply actions  

its a great point

you can’t judge players solely on their individual skills. They function better and worse in combinations. Its chemistry. I am sure everybody reading this has certain people whose presence makes them more intelligent and certain people whose presence creates a sense of dullness.

So it also is in the world of basketball as a team like San Antonio proves again and again.

by inpresence on Jan 25, 2012 11:57 PM PST up reply actions  

Outlaw is not as good as Batum on offense.

"We gotta get this $#!^ together guys!" - Phil

by 420Phenom on Jan 21, 2012 6:35 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

he was better in Batum's first year

Now, certainly not. Thank God we didn’t sign him to a longer contract.

by DiegoSegui on Jan 21, 2012 9:31 PM PST up reply actions  

I <3 Travis and Nico both.

but there is no comparison as far as skills in basketball. On either end of the court. Sorry Travis. :(

I’m also not a fan of KT and the Rhino on the floor together. I’d like to see CJ behind KT against bad teams to rest LA and preserve Camby. But you have to play Rhino if you want to trade him for any value, and he does have size.

It’s not in the stars for EW to play unless its a blowout. He is the lastest victim of pg musical chairs. Next season he may play somewhere else.

Nolan needs to untuck his jersey a little, but he has the skill set Nate looks for in a back up pg.

just win baby !

by FrenchieFan on Jan 22, 2012 10:07 AM PST up reply actions  

oh and by the way babbit cj and nolan

got their chances tonight and stunk up the floor

by jpark on Jan 21, 2012 10:26 PM PST reply actions  

Yes, but they were all played at the same time

Which is kind of the point this post is trying to make.

Wouldn’t it seem better for a players development to start them off playing a couple minutes at a time with the starters, than trying to get 5 new guys/rookies on a court at once?

There is absolutely no future for a Smith-Crawford-Babbitt-Smith-Johnson line-up. Playing them together is going to do nothing for us – not in terms of wins, not in terms of development and definitely not in terms of entertainment. All of those players can contribute individually, but not grouped together as a full rotation.

by Sir.Ludo on Jan 22, 2012 12:01 PM PST up reply actions  

for the record

I think that Nolan will be a bust and it seems pretty obvious that Babbitt is as well.

by DiegoSegui on Jan 22, 2012 10:03 PM PST up reply actions  

I agree, in part...

We can look to the recent Championship Celtic team for a good example of your suggestion; one of the Big Three was in the game at all times. Because of a clever substitution pattern Doc Rivers was able to have one of his stars in the game at all times, minimizing the negative impact of an entire 2nd unit. I think this is a very intelligent way to manage a roster, and I’d hope that Nate could employ the same tactic with Batum, Wallace, and Aldridge.

That said, Chris Johnson is a 3rd tier player at best. The lot for players like him is different from a 2nd tier guy. The Chris Johnsons of the NBA have to scrap it out in the limited minutes they get and specifically stand out from the rest of the pack on one end of the court or the other. This can be unfair for pass-first PGs, who need decent shooters to stand out, but is tailor made for bigs.

If Chris Johnson was deserving of more minutes, he would have shown it by now. Instead, for every highlight block, there’s a dumb foul. Furthermore, he is so hungry for those blocks that he frequently dives for charging guards, leaving his assignment open for the easy lay-up.

I fully expect CJ to be waived when Przybilla is finally signed (please, please, please).

Doers & Makers > Movers & Shakers

by Adam Randall on Jan 22, 2012 10:35 AM PST reply actions  

Johnson is a liability.

He can’t guard the ball in the post. His strenghth was always help defense but his weakness gets exploited horridly every time he is on the floor. Teams just give it to the guy Johnson is guarding and Johnson easily gives up ground and a good look. He should be in the D-League working on one on one post defense. The fact he has been exploited has also caused him to loose confidence with the rest of the game.

by gunballs on Jan 22, 2012 6:24 PM PST reply actions  

Johnson Slapping Dirk

I think that was a low point for the Blazers last year. Some might have cheered the “aggressiveness”, but it was so dumb and only served to amp up Dirk and send the Blazers into a spiral. Johnson is my least favorite Blazer and I wince when I see him on the court.

Otherwise it’s an interesting concept, mixing the units more. Just keep that petulant child off the floor.

by BrotherBlazer on Jan 23, 2012 10:55 AM PST reply actions  

Interesting ideas, but...

If we were going to mix in an unusual lineup, I’d put Craig Smith at the 4 and LMA at the 5. Smith is both a good rebounder and post player for his height. We’ve seen him hold his own on the court playing next to a guy like Kurt who has almost no offensive game. If you’ve got LaMarcus commanding double-teams and dragging centers out of the paint to come defend him at the elbow, you’re making a lot easier for Craig to get excellent position to post or rebound.

In theory, theory and practice are the same. In practice they're not.

by conspirator5 on Jan 23, 2012 3:40 PM PST reply actions  

Johnson needs to simply camp in the paint and try to block EVERYTHING.

The kid can jump out of the gym.
He would be awesome in “the birdman” role (with less tattoos).
He and Camby could be a pretty nasty wall under the rim.

I also am in favor of any idea or coaching strategy that gets Eliot Williams onto the floor. I wonder what he is doing in practice that makes coach sit him for so long while Felton has had one of the worst statistical starts of his career.

we can still win........

by RastaMonsta on Jan 24, 2012 3:11 PM PST reply actions  

Yeah, Birdman is a great role model (in terms of the court) for him

Part of the key with Birdman is that he plays within himself. He’s very good at not doing things he can’t do, like shoot from further than 2 feet from the basket. He never dribbles the ball. He’s a good bit stronger than Johnson, but they do share the explosive leap.

by DiegoSegui on Jan 24, 2012 11:30 PM PST up reply actions  

But Elliot can't play point

Basically, we’re stuck with Felton. Crawford comes in as replacement, which has major issues, or we get Nolan, who is a very marginal player on offense. Felton is a middle of the pack point guard who would probably be better if he lost the extra weight. History suggests that he’ll shoot better, but the compacted schedule is taking a toll on all shooters.

by DiegoSegui on Jan 24, 2012 11:33 PM PST up reply actions  

I have been very unhappy with Felton.

I am not Nate but I would have had him riding pine until he proved he could produce more consistently. I know he has comparable numbers to many other PGs so far this season but in EVERY game that I have watched he has turned the ball over at a CRITICAL time in the 4th, either making it more difficult or downright impossible for the Blazers to win.

Also, Williams is not a rookie. True this is the first season when he could get significant minutes but fair is fair (and I know Nate likes to coach this way), he is a second year player and Nolan Smith needs to take a back seat to Eliot until Eliot proves that he is a failure – which he most certainly has not.

I think Williams could play point, and he could be faster and more dangerous offensively than Felton with equal or lesser turnovers.
Just my opinion but… I love an underdog I guess =)

we can still win........

by RastaMonsta on Jan 25, 2012 11:06 AM PST up reply actions  

Elliot is a rookie

as he qualifies for ROY. Not that he will be, but he COULD win the award.

by AR-15 on Jan 25, 2012 11:19 AM PST up reply actions  

CJ is a great shot blocker when he can jump

what I’ve seen this year is opposing players going right into his chest, knocking him off balance, not allowing him to elevate to block a shot, and usually resulting in a foul

"If I had a dime for every basket I made today, you'd still suck!" - from the book 'John Dies @ the End'

by sammymohawk on Jan 25, 2012 1:12 PM PST up reply actions  

that and he is extremely jumpy

if anyone even looks like they might be thinking about shooting he jumps to block it.

by AR-15 on Jan 26, 2012 8:56 PM PST up reply actions  

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