Jeff Sagarin: Blazers early schedule among NBAs toughest

by Cjones10 on Jan 17, 2012 1:29 AM PST

According to Jeff Sagarin of USA TODAY, the Blazers have played the fourth toughest schedule in the NBA thus far. Top 5 toughest schedules are 1) 3-11 New Jersey 2) 6-7 Houston 3) 4-10 Sacramento 4) 8-5 Portland 5) 6-6 Memphis So, Portland is the only team in the NBA to play a top 5 schedule and come out of with a winning record. Miami at 8-4 is the only other top 10 toughest schedule team to have a winning record, their SOS is #6.

He lists Portland as the 8th best team overall, and 4th best overall in the Western Conference. The W.C. teams ahead of them are Oklahoma City, LA Clippers and San Antonio Spurs.

When you take out his margin of victory equation, Portland is 7th, bumping them ahead of the Spurs (and 76ers who are really killing a lot of teams).

The predictor formula predicts that the Blazers will finish the season as the 7th best team after looking at future games.

Portland is 4-3 against top 10 teams. No other top ten team has played seven top ten teams. Portland is 5-4 vs. his top 16 teams. The Lakers have played the most top 16 teams, with 10. The 76ers for instance have only played 3 top 16 teams, and have played the weakest schedule thus far. This leaves the Blazers with a 1-3 record vs. non top 16 teams, that loss was at Phoenix, who comes in at 19th.

The good news is the schedule is about to balance out! The Blazers play Atlanta (#5) on Wednesday, but after that the cupcakes (or should we call them Felton's?) start popping up in bunches. Here is the schedule with the current Sagarin rating for that team until Feb. 2nd:

@#23 TORONTO

@#28 DETROIT

#27 SACRAMENTO

#16 MEMPHIS

@ #20 GOLDEN STATE

#19 PHOENIX

@ #14 UTAH

#29 CHARLOTTE

@ #27 SACRAMENTO

That means the average ranking over those 9 games is 22.55. Because I have nothing better to do tonight following my surgery, I looked up our schedule so far and the median team ranking that Portland has played so far (+ counting Atlanta) is: 11.57. So, we will see nearly a stretch were we play twice as easy of a schedule. The Blazers will either have 8 or 9 wins coming into this stretch, how many will they have after those above mentioned games on Feb. 2nd? I think they will have 15 wins and 8 losses at that point.

Poll

How many wins will Portland have on Feb. 2nd (23 games into the season)

17 or 18 wins (17-6 or 18-5)

31 votes

15 or 16 wins (15-8 or 16-7)

81 votes

14 wins (14-9)

40 votes

13 wins (13-10)

4 votes

12 or fewer wins (12-11 or worse)

1 votes

157 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 6 comments | 1 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Thanks

for the SoS breakdown. A little early perspective’s always nice.
I wonder if an updated ranking is available that takes into account pertinent injuries (ie, Camby, Wade..) over the course of effected games.

Oh, and have a speedy surgery recovery!

Tie down the furniture kids, it's time for another ride down Ulcer Gulch!

by DMKPDX on Jan 17, 2012 9:37 AM PST reply actions

You are welcome and thanks for the recovery wishes.

by Cjones10 on Jan 17, 2012 2:01 PM PST reply actions

yes..but the games...Sac, Memphis and GSW...back to back to back..

Seems like with this year’s weird condensed schedule the “strength” of the opposition has something to do with how gross their schedule is…
Also, I think the Blazers blow off games against opponents they think are “beneath” them. And play down to that team’s level or just don’t try at all. Phoenix…COMPLETELY mailed in game. NO…same. Only LMA woke them up @ halftime.
Orlando…am pretty sure the Blazers thought they could get that one by showing up for one quarter…

So there is no predicting based on competition.
Also think the fitness/training staff in PDX stinks. And this has something to do with how well teams will play.

by Natsthecat on Jan 17, 2012 2:49 PM PST reply actions

I don't think the training staff stinks

Its that Nate is playing his players like a normal season. 8 man rotation, big minutes to LMA and the rest of the starters. Of course he doesn’t have that much of a choice, even if the media like to say the Blazers are a deep team when they aren’t. Also, LMA has to work his butt off to get post position, on top of playing 40+ minutes a game. Its not really a lack of effort, but his muscles probably just can’t keep up. So, giving the minutes and type of play the Blazers have they will probably have some huge down games.

Joel Freeland=Stud

by hightide on Jan 17, 2012 3:43 PM PST up reply actions