This Team is both as GREAT and as TERRIBLE as Wallace

by skott75 on Jan 16, 2012 2:45 AM PST

If this early season has shown us anyhting it is that this team lives and dies with Wallace. When wallace is scoring and blocking and stealing his way to a great game, we are a legit threat to anyone in the league. BUT, like Wallace himself, it could go either way. I'm not sure I have ever seen a team or a player that can so vastly differ from game to game. Both depend so entirely on easy buckets and inspired effort. If one or both of those keys are missing we are dead in the water with no recourse. I for one would like to see a shorter leash on Wallace and the team. If Wallace or the rest of the team start settling for long jumpers our goose is cooked. Put in some subs with the direct order of getting to the rim and drawing fouls. Elliot willams , Rhino,and Nolan smith......this is your duty to the team for the remainder of the season! let them play with their heads down when all else is failing!!!!!!

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E-mail and Nolan,,,really? we're talking about the Sarge here!

by Dre2.0 on Jan 16, 2012 4:45 AM PST reply actions

There is definately going to be a change of coaching style coming soon.

The team will be hobbled by the end of the season if the bench doesn’t get more minutes.

by Kevlar Rocket on Jan 16, 2012 6:42 AM PST reply actions

It's odd how you go from the exactly correct analysis to the exactly wrong conclusion.

The correct analysis is that getting a lot of production from GW is hugely important to the team’s success. In other words, GW is hugely productive, and if his game is off, we look like a mediocre team.

The exactly wrong conclusion to get to from that observation is to think that we can easily replace GW’s production and defensive presence by subbing in marginal guys like EW, NS, and CS. GW can affect the quality of the team’s performance so much because he’s capable of being an incredible performer, where EW, NS, CS have never shown that they’re capable of even being better than average performers.

The correct conclusion is to try to get more consistent production out of GW, perhaps by doing things like playing him fewer minutes per game so he’s got more in his battery on road games and back to backs. He’s averaging 34 mpg, which is a lot with the compressed schedule. I’d play him 28-30 and rest him.

I’d actually try to do that with most of the team—I think Pops is the only one handling this season correctly, doing everything in his power to keep everyone under 30 mpg, playing starters heavily on the first of back to backs, then subs heavily on the seconds.

by howlingfantods on Jan 16, 2012 9:32 AM PST reply actions

Wait?

“The correct conclusion is to try to get more consistent production out of GW” If that was possible we would be title contenders. The whole point of the post is that Wallace, just like this team, can not be consistent because of what they count on to be good ie (Turnovers and easy buckets). one or both of those things can be easily taken away and our personnel ( particularly Wallace) can’t operate in the half court with any consistency. His jump shot is a welcome sight to most opponents so his drives against set defense are nearly impossible. Nolan, Williams, and the rhino have the a chance to be our interior presence( maybe not Nolan). Williams looks to be a slasher type with some handles and Rhino can just smash through the defense. I’m not saying they are the answer to what ails us, but they are all we have and we have seen what doesn’t work already.

by skott75 on Jan 16, 2012 11:51 AM PST up reply actions

Wallace is the best slasher on the team by far, and most of his points are in the half court.

If his game was so easy to take away, why do very good defensive teams have so much trouble taking him out of his game when Wallace is playing at home (e.g. the Lakers at Portland on 1/6) but poor defensive teams find it so easy to kill his game when he plays at their court on the second of a back-to-back (e.g. the Suns at Phoenix on 1/7).

The main problem with Wallace has been that he doesn’t seem to have his energy on the road and the second nights of back to backs—his game’s been particularly brutal when it’s both on the road and the second night of back to backs.

He’s a guy who really needs to have peak energy to be effective, since his game relies on hustle, speed and aggression. With all the back to backs and compressed schedule, an energy guy like Wallace can’t play 35 mpg and still be effective on back to backs, especially on the road.

by howlingfantods on Jan 16, 2012 12:22 PM PST up reply actions

i agree

so play him less and give the bench some run, isn’t that what I suggested? If he is lacking energy he is no good to us out there so use the subs a bit.

by skott75 on Jan 16, 2012 1:01 PM PST up reply actions

it shouldn't be reactionary based on day to day performance.

By the time you notice he has dead legs, it’s too late to expect him to spring back for that game. You have to limit his minutes on his good days so he has something left in the tank for the back to backs and road games.

You have to build limiting his minutes to 28-30 into the regular substitution patterns, and make sure that Wallace knows what you’re doing and why you’re doing it.

by howlingfantods on Jan 16, 2012 1:08 PM PST up reply actions

I'm good with that

I just don’t see where we disagree? You say don’t play the bench but Wallace needs less minutes?

by skott75 on Jan 16, 2012 1:37 PM PST up reply actions

because you're saying, "bench GW when he doesn't have it."

I’m saying “limit his minutes in games even when he has it, so he doesn’t have as many games when he doesn’t have it.”

The end result might be that he plays the same number of minutes between what you and I are saying, but I’m saying it’s better to have 90% effective GW for 30 mpg every night instead of 100% effective GW for 36 minutes home games and non-back-to-backs and a 50% effective GW for 25 minutes away games and back-to-backs.

by howlingfantods on Jan 16, 2012 3:39 PM PST up reply actions

Ah, well then i agree!

by skott75 on Jan 16, 2012 4:04 PM PST up reply actions

"where EW, NS, CS have never shown that they’re capable of even being better than average performers."

How exactly you consider that Nolah and Elliot are not capable of being better than average?
McMillan kills the self-esteem and the development of his young players.
There is no way someone to become a good player, warming the bench.Nate has always been extremely exigent to rookies – one mistake and they go to the end of the bench.At least from time to time he must be so critical and to the stars of the team like Wallace.

by prostofen on Jan 18, 2012 6:00 AM PST up reply actions

Wallace has been frustrating to watch at the rim. He has got to be one of the worst finshers in the league.

Missed layup after missed layup. If Jamal Crawford could contain himself say, two or three times a game and pass the ball, and Wallace could make a quarter of the chippies he’s missed, the Blazers would be a a one, maybe two loss team.

by raoulduke on Jan 16, 2012 11:19 AM PST reply actions

This is a selective memory issue, not a reality issue.

If you look at Hoopdata, you’ll see that GWs is at 67.6% shooting percentage at the rim. League average is 63.2%. If you go more specific to small forwards who play above 25 mpg (i.e. major rotation guys), the average is 65.8. Ergo he’s better than average, and definitely not one of the worst finishers in the league.

In fact, one of the many reasons why GW is such a good player is because he gets a lot of shots at the rim compared to other wing players (second behind LBJ for attempts at the rim among small forwards averaging over 25 mpg), and he converts those at a good clip. Shots at the rim and three pointers are the most efficient scoring opportunities, and GW has outstanding shot selection, and avoids shooting anything in between (0 attempts per game from 10-15 feet, 0.8 attempts per game from 16-23).

by howlingfantods on Jan 16, 2012 12:11 PM PST up reply actions

Not this year.

by raoulduke on Jan 16, 2012 2:22 PM PST up reply actions

yes this year.

link

by howlingfantods on Jan 16, 2012 3:21 PM PST up reply actions

Pwned

OSU '06
GForce Crash Wallace FTW!

by TyboOSU on Jan 16, 2012 6:18 PM PST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs

Alright he's slightly better than average and not in the bottom half. Great. Our number two option

whose game is at the rim, is average, I feel better now.

by raoulduke on Jan 17, 2012 6:16 PM PST up reply actions

the whole point of his game

is that he can get a ton of those shots and still keep his percentage up.

If all he did was convert opportunistic dunks on the break and cutting for oops, then he wouldn’t get as many attempts and his percentage would probably be higher. But instead, he drives against solid defense and still manages to get good opportunities to get his shot up, creating good, above 60% scoring options that other wings can’t get. That’s what makes him one of the better players in the league.

It doesn’t make him a superstar like LBJ, who is just superhuman at being both tops in attempts as well as tops in percentage, but that’s one of the reasons why LBJ is a max superstar and multiple MVP guy and GW was available for trade for Dante, Przybilla, and the #19 pick. We got a very good player for much less value than the value he brings on the court.

So yeah, I am pretty damned thrilled to have him.

by howlingfantods on Jan 19, 2012 12:11 PM PST up reply actions

this is true, easy to see by watching games

Wallace is horrid at the rim. If you take away his wide open fast break point layups, his % is really low. I’ve never seen someone miss so many contested ‘at the rim’ layups. Mike and Mike were discussing this in the last game, and they singled out Wallace specifically, so you, me and the group that sits by me at home games are not the only ones who see this.

by ItsMrHarris2u on Jan 17, 2012 9:18 AM PST up reply actions

If you ever want to make sure your bball judgments aren't completely whackadoodle,

first thing to do is to completely ignore every word out of Mike and Mike’s mouths.

I think half of the weird inaccuracies, player obsessions, and incredible victim complexes about the refs that float around blazers fandom are attributable to them two. Refs aren’t always out to get portland players, chris wilcox is a garbage player, and marcus thornton isn’t the worst defender of all time. And Gerald Wallace is an above average finisher.

by howlingfantods on Jan 17, 2012 10:17 AM PST up reply actions

Mike Barrett

MB is wrong about 40 times a game. Sometimes Rice just humors him, but mostly it’s just Barrett being completely uninformed. At least that’s my opinion.

by DannyYoung on Jan 17, 2012 4:03 PM PST up reply actions

one thing that is true though, is that GW misses more layups per game than most other small forwards do.

but that’s because he gets more layup attempts per game than every small forward besides LeBron. So where other players might miss one layup out of three attempts each game, GW misses two layups out of six attempts each game.

by howlingfantods on Jan 17, 2012 10:19 AM PST up reply actions